Russia to "temporarily" suspend fertilizer exports

CactuSoup/E+ via Getty Images

• Russia has decided to "temporarily suspend fertilizers exports," the Russian Industry Minister announced Thursday, after Putin said, "we don't want to have such price rises on the Russian food market."
• The announcement comes a week after a statement from the Russian Trade Ministry said "the Ministry had to recommend Russian producers temporarily suspend export shipments of Russian fertilizers until carriers resume rhythmic work and provide guarantees that Russian fertilizer exports will be completed in full."
• In early February, Russia banned ammonium nitrate exports; however, Russia also accounts for 14% of the global urea market and 21% of the Potash market.
• US fertilizer stocks like Mosaic (NYSE:MOS), CF Industries (NYSE:CF), CVR Partners (NYSE:UAN) and Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) have been on a tear, as relatively cheap US natural gas (NG1:COM) has given domestic suppliers a significant cost advantage over European and Asian competition.
• The CF Industries (CF) CEO recently said fertilizer reserves are "as low as we've ever seen" raising concerns over availability of supply in the event China and Russia continue to restrict exports.

Comments

[70sheets]

lots of borderline conspiracy theorists in here. funny how the narrative always continues. saying biden caused whatever is going on now is the equivalent to saying obama caused the financial crisis in 08 lol which is exactly what you types were saying.

the mechanisms were already in place before biden took office:

zero covid policy in China
Sanctions on China
OPEC refusal to work with America to increase output
unemployment
rising costs

these all were existing under trump and yet you blame biden lol....

its kind of embarrassing and ruins credibility to suggest otherwise tbh

[C185]

@70sheets
Keep trying to re-write history. The person on the street isn't going to buy your tripe. Gasoline in my area was $2/gal when Biden took office. It rose steadily to $3.60 until Biden's War started. Now it's $4.39 and rising 10 to 20 cents every 1 to 3 days.

When you elect a career grifter who's never had a real job, has no executive office experience, and has the mind of a turnip this is what you end up with.

[Akutan]

@C185 Nice anecdote dipshit. Your cause and effect is wrong of course.

Gas was cheap because US tight gas was liberated, supplied with know how from US research and development. Largely funded by the US Dept Of Energy. Then it met a supply shock, exacerbated by a sitting President who said a disease with substantial mortality was nothing to concern the average American.

Good thing now, with Russia’s supply in doubt, that government funded supply in the US has been able to supplant 50% of what we used to get from the original Ruskies 5 MM barrels. American innovation and science meets monopolistic Oligarchy has blunted what could have been a real problem. I’m gonna go fill up my truck now at about 60% of what a European driver would pay.

[Azred]

@C185 thank god I was smart enough after Biden was elected to get rid of my 3 year old convertible Mustang. Took my pony down to the dealership for a new Buick Encore. Made a great deal and they took the Mustang. At that time the Buick dealership was chalk full of these vehicles out front. It sure did not seem like much time afterwards all those cars were literally blown out of there. A lot of dealerships went short on the supply side. Have to give them a lot of credit though. When the newer vehicles left everyone did what they could to survive in Biden’s world. Used vehicles and trucks became very popular. This was Biden’s fault. Not Putin. And Trump always was for “Make more in America” and less China China China. These rich globalists are fools. Besides, thanks to the former President, Retail out here did start bringing in better product from other countries. I read labels for fun in stores:-) before I buy!

[webchow]

How about that? Russia responds to trade restrictions with...withholding trade. I'm sure the other suppliers that provided 86% (now 100%) are thanking them. Especially with the higher prices they are now getting. Russia just can't seem to help from continually shooting themselves in the foot. Hard to believe this country was once held in such high esteem.

[NowTheTime]

So frustrating. None of this would have happened if the defeated guy hadn’t started an insane trade war that wrecked our supply chains, then withheld arms to Ukraine as instructed by Putin. Going to take a while to clean up all his messes. Biden did a great job with vaccine deployment, economic recovery, as he has now created more new jobs in a year than Trump achieved in four years, and fixing Trump’s childish damage to NATO. Biden is quickly becoming one of the best presidents we’ve ever had. So proud of him.

[113467]

@NowTheTime OMG, Biden, just another filthy politician feeding off our people and country.

[SKApotash]

@NowTheTime u need to be in a Nursing Home with Biden.

[ransim7222]

@NowTheTime
More people died from COVID under the Biden administration than any other and he PROMISED to fix that problem. The people who have died from COVID under his administration would say he FAILED. Biden is causing the greatest inflation in our country in 40 years and he is worse than Jimmy Carter as far as high gas prices are concerned. One of his first acts in office was to relieve the US sanctions on the NordStream II Russian pipeline and now Russia has started a devastating war in Europe. Iran is about to have a nuclear weapon and Biden is relieving the sanctions on them. China backs Russia and continues to threaten Taiwan and its neighbors. The Middle East oil kingdoms will not even return Bidens' phone calls. This is a farce masquerading as the Biden Administration foreign policy.
And all this is after Biden has only been in office for a little over a year. He is clearly the worst President we have ever had.

[ziegle9876]

The West's reaction is comparable to the hunger strike a hopeless prisoner engages in to end his suffering....

[Crayfishkaliari]

@ziegle9876 seem like a bunch of frantic women acting like their hair is on fire if you ask me

[ziegle9876]

@Crayfishkaliari Emoticonpolitik instead of Realpolitik.....

[Soto1]

@Crayfishkaliari You still can't justify Russian war crimes in unprovoked attack on Ukraine.

[asm12345]

Gotta wonder who's going to get the worst of this trade/sanctions war. Sure on the face of it Russia is worse off, but at the same time Putin is at least trying to take some of the sting out of it. Biden on the other hand is telling people to buy electric cars when they see $7 gasoline, totally ignoring the fact that ALL the new car lots, ICE or Electric are empty from the damn chip shortage he hasn't fixed. Honestly with this whole fertilizer deal my guess is Biden sees this as an opportunity to reduce our carbon footprint via starvation.

[buyandforget]

@asm12345
It's the Third World that will starve, not America.

[martyr1777]

@asm12345 " totally ignoring the fact that ALL the new car lots, ICE or Electric are empty from the damn chip shortage he hasn't fixed."

He hasn't fixed? And how is he responsible for a lack of production due to fires and other issues at fabs IN OTHER NATIONS?

You don't like Biden or Dems, fine. At least make real arguments against them not this crap.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@asm12345 America shot itself in the foot and will have to walk it back and gain nothing if it does besides a return to normal as a weaker player. Russia loses some but it was expected and they get territory they wanted and one less angry neighbor..

[my_symphony2003]

US is never a win-win mentality country, therefore, there will not be a win-win solution to the war. There will not be a good outcome here, the stock market is expecting some kind of quick solution, which is unlikely in my opinion. We human beings are once again losing to ideology. Sad.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@my_symphony2003 4th turning

[Rikki Tikki Tavi]

@Crayfishkaliari Profound comment.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@Rikki Tikki Tavi to paraphrase Solzhenitsyn, maybe the lies will win, but not through me

[Clairvoyant Investor]

Don't fight the trend. Always follow the money. Gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper, steel, iron ore, agricultural commodities, and any other commodity are winning the day as inflation accelerates. Fed QE is over. Weak traders blame the market, good traders own the market. Retail money is still heavily flowing in and there is no sign of capitulation. The selling has to get overwhelmingly depressing and overextended retail inflows must stop flooding into the market before any sign of a bottom can even begin to appear. The S&P is being held up by the MM's now but that will not last. Barrick $GOLD is my rock and main outperformer in 2022 along with $CLF Cleveland Cliffs or Cliffy. $SLV is about to earnestly trade up as silver always follows gold. These are my new trades $SVM, $PLG, $GORO, $HYMC took profits on, $USWS, $BTG, $GGB are some suggestions if you want a chance. Forget about everything else for 30 days. The sun will shine again, inflation will go away but there's no sign of that now. Stop losing money and go with the flow and what's working. And the moment things turn around, everybody will get the same volume and run back up so there is no timing any bottoms in thecl market and everybody damn well knows that. Sorry for the long post

[70sheets]

@Clairvoyant Investor yea everyone go buy commodities when they're sitting at multi decade highs that should work out great.

oil wasn't like $25 a barrel less than 2 years ago or anything while we are in an unprecedented invasion of ukraine and unprecedented zero covid policy in the worlds largest manufacturing country

[Guraaf]

If there is cease fire declared next week then many stocks will go up 20-50% in a hurry.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@Guraaf you think this economic trouble is based on ukraine? you have it exactly backwards

[martyr1777]

@Guraaf For a one day ceasefire for civilian evacuations?

No.

[70sheets]

@Crayfishkaliari

do you know how much fertilizer and wheat is being blocked from transportation from the black sea? try over 20% of the worlds supply

weird how the main commodities that increased in price since russian invasion were gas and food huh. so weird how that worked out. no way it could be due to russia invading ukraine

[9013185412]

I’m sure Bidens diverse team knew this would happen before they started war.

[DividendRUs]

@9013185412 Putin started the war, not Biden.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@DividendRUs nato/biden started the war

[doubleE]

@Crayfishkaliari

Uh-ok.

[ding dong]

Russia and China are too big. For their prosperity and for world peace they should be broken up into smaller countries that can form a loose union, just like the EU.

[hanru]

@ding dong why not the US breaks up into 50 states :)

[kb9wnt]

@hanru which per the Constitution it should be as per the Tenth amendment.

[my_symphony2003]

50% market down from here is very likely, the earnings will be revised down hard and at the same time multiple will be compressed because of high inflation. Get out now.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@my_symphony2003 panic selling is a dangerous game to play.. so is holding a bunch of overpriced garbage... i suggest you don't get out fully... and grab some physical PM's while youre at it

[Akutan]

@Crayfishkaliari Your cost basis would have been improved by buying physical when Bush went into Iraq. That inflation was a doozy. Gold at $350 was great,silver for $5.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@Akutan your assumption is i wasn't?

[kwylee]

Mad Vlad

[Crayfishkaliari]

@kwylee he seems pretty calm to me... the rest of the world? not so much

[ttims2]

@Crayfishkaliari yeah but you’re on your knees under his desk so there’s that…

[Crayfishkaliari]

@ttims2 i'm free... your juvenile insults are irrelevant... i've fielded several people upset with truth today but you are the dumbest, so you get muted... cheers

[GR Value]

Africa has potash reserves. And Canada can step up moreso.

[MarketMaker58]

Holy sh*t!

[glenart]

Vlad is not being very smart here. Temporary for a week or 2 means customers for Russian fertilizer will make other arrangements with other suppliers. Anything longer than 2-3 weeks means Russia may lose those customers FOREVER! Vlad is playing with a losing deck of cards right now. The price of oil is selling off very rapidly. Russian troop losses are accelerating. Russian army is stuck standing in front of thousands of American made Stinger and Javelin missiles. If I were Vlad, I would be looking for a way out before the Russian economy suffers very serious damage. All in all, this has been a DISASTER for Vlad as he vastly underestimated Ukraine-Western sanctions and overestimated his own army's power.

[Eformula]

@glenart are you panicking? just say yes if you are

[buyandforget]

@glenart
Putin has the luxury of imposing the costs of his war on the Russian people.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@glenart he is playing the game with real things the US is trying to play with funny money... seems pretty smart to me

[Convoluted]

People are wailing and gnashing their teeth that the evil market has beaten their beloved NIO senseless. ‘It’s not right!’ ‘The market is irrational!’

X at 9 was irrational. FCX at 7 was irrational. MOS at 11 was irrational. I won’t even mention anything related to oil.

[PanicFirst]

Was transitory in quotes?

[Edward N]

They should also stop exporting, oil gas, grains and steel. That should rip the bandaid off their default situation.

[Akutan]

Black Sea, Black Dirt, or Black Oil?

[70sheets]

senators were buying mosaic as early as December. just follow senator buys and you will win

[C185]

@70sheets
Because nobody else knew about Biden Inflation and commodity prices ramping until now.

You could have been buying NTR, MOS, etc. before December without having any idea of what senators were doing. The underlying reason is the same as what should have had you selling high P/E stocks like AMD at $160.

[Akutan]

@C185 Let’s be clear. Republicans borrow and spend. Dems tax and spend. Borrowing creates inflation.

[Crayfishkaliari]

@Akutan biden has destroyed 80 years of progress in a single year