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Chinese EV deliveries dive as COVID disruptions come to bear

NIO logo and the Nio"s user center, NIO House

Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers’ delivery figures fell sharply in April as supply chains were hit hard by Zero-COVID policies.

Deliveries for Nio, Inc. (NYSE:NIO), Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI), and

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Comments (14)

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Mike Smitka profile picture
I am behind in reading Chinese news, and presume that trucking issues and local restrictions will impair deliveries. Even if factories resume production, the Yangtze River delta is a big chunk of vehicle sales. That’s particularly true for NEVs. BYD has a national distribution network but half of the sales of Tesla come from just 10 cities. Ditto Nio where battery swaps are only possible in a few cities.
LongTimeReader profile picture
BYD and TSLA can both continue their high growth simultaneously. They are mostly recruiting customers from ICE manufacturers, not each other.
Maxed Out Mama profile picture
But BYD blew it out of the water, apparently delivering 106K in April. BYD will end the year with over 1.5 million production capacity, it appears.


It looks as if BYD will beat Tesla in deliveries this quarter globally, although BYD mostly still sells in China. This continues to be a very impressive run. BYD has become one of China's top auto cos, and is slowly expanding sales outside of China as production capacity mounts. Impressive tech and very price-competitive offerings.

It is possible that in 2023 BYD becomes the top EV seller globally, and very likely that this happens in 2024. What will happen to Tesla's stock then?
doubleE profile picture
@Maxed Out Mama
"It is possible that in 2023 BYD becomes the top EV seller globally, and very likely that this happens in 2024. What will happen to Tesla's stock then?"

No. It is not possibe. International expansion is difficult and expensive. BYD is barely profitable as it is.
Maxed Out Mama profile picture
@doubleE It's very possible. BYD is already exporting to countries abroad, and in any case, China is about half the global market, maybe more this year. In the first quarter China accounted for about 56% of global sales. Last quarter Tesla had 15.5% global share and BYD had 14.3%, globally.

In Q1 BYD had over 25% of the Chinese NEV market. Tesla had 9.6%.

BYD is beginning to export to Norway (late last year), South America and Australia this year. I expect as soon as it raises capacity enough it will export more, and quite successfully, to Europe. Unless, of course, Xi decides to go for Taiwan. I think BYD is very clued in and may have early warning, so I am watching what BYD does in exports as a way to assess the Xi risk this year and the next. If Xi is going BYD will slow down its export efforts.

As for profits - hah. BYD's free cash flow in Q1 was over 17% of revenues. It's expanding light years faster than Tesla. It clearly has several more years of very rapid growth ahead. And BYD has already come close to Tesla in global share.
@doubleE What's your current take with NIO's deliveries? Do you think it is worth maintaining a hold until at least the end of the year to see if their deliveries pick up?
The dip is short but long term winners like Tesla is a huge buy IMO.
CS15 profile picture
If it wasn't a election year, I'm sure the dems would love to do the same here.
tjf@denver profile picture
Here comes the pain
Report risk profile picture
@tjf@denver Seems like everybody is wanting the dip to buy on. So do we get one?
necto profile picture
great opportunity to add on these weaknesses
Stefan Redlich profile picture
Please market, I beg you to panic this week :)
I’m happy for the market to panic and drive down the prices of stocks. I’m waiting to buy
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