Exchange traded funds related to the travel and leisure sectors may experience choppy water in the months to come, if Morgan Stanley is right that travel demand could ease going into the summer.
Funds that may be affected by future travel trends are the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSEARCA:JETS), Invesco Dynamic Leisure and Entertainment ETF (PEJ), ETFMG Travel Tech ETF (AWAY), AdvisorShares Hotel ETF (BEDZ), and AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ).
Morgan Staley stated in a note on Tuesday: “We are ... seeing signs that travel plans are softening into the summer, a seasonally strong period for travel.”
Basing its conclusions on survey results, the firm added: “Travel intentions slipped down to January levels with 53% of consumers planning to travel over the next six months (vs. 58% two weeks ago and ~64% in the summer of last year). This decline was mainly driven by $75K-$149K income cohorts. Households with $150K+ income are more resilient in their travel intentions so far.”
While all five funds may see negative moves if travel slows, JETS may be the hardest hit, as it offers the market's exclusive airline ETF. JETS provides investors access to the global airline industry, including airline operators and manufacturers from all over the world.
JETS is dominated by its top four holdings, which cumulatively provide roughly 40% of the fund's exposure. These top four positions consist of Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), weighted at 9.66%, 9.52%, 9.38%, and 9.23% respectively.
Year-to-date price action: JETS -23%, PEJ -25.9%, AWAY -26.3%, BEDZ -23.9%, and EATZ -27.1%.