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Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War, commodities best since WWII

Beautiful sunset at Gettysburg

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This year is shaping up to be historic in terms of real asset performance, according to BofA Securities.

In his weekly Flow Show note, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote Friday that in real terms, government bonds (

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GI21284 profile picture
The DJIA, in various down years:

1929 -17.27%
1930 -33.77%
1931 -52.67%
1932 -23.07%
1937 -32.82%

1974 -27.57%
2008 -33.84%
2022 (as of Sept. 7): -13.09%

Source: Macrotrends

In the face of these statistics, to say that “STOCKS, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War” is nothing more than headline-grabbing, sensationalist nonsense.
@GI21284 To be fair, I think when the article was written there was a point when technically it was the worst start to the year. Not the worst yearly performance.
GI21284 profile picture
@The Real Cavalier It's about the inherent dangers of extrapolating short-term performance over an extended time period. For example, from mid-July to mid-August -- even in this struggling market year -- the DJIA went from approx. 31250 to 34250 ... that's a 3000-pt bump, or 9.6%. Extrapolated over a year, that would translate to a DJI gain of 115%.

How foolish and misleading it would have been, just a few weeks ago at DJI = 34250, to have written an article entitled, "Stocks are on track for one of the best 12-month performances ever."
@GI21284 I agree with you. Statistics can be manipulated by selecting random time frames or short ones. I tend to look at rolling three year performance. To another article, I commented this is nothing more than an appropriate adjustment to the 2021 bubble. We're still up 30% from the February 2020 high before COVID. That's good performance. Anyone whining about bubble prices from November 2021 and pining away for what was clearly irrational stock behavior should be in market weight ETFs.
kyri0882 profile picture
Hey guys. I need a little help here. Im interested to buy this product. My question is, when it says commodities, which ones exactly are in this product? And in your opinion, could this investment be a long one, or just to take advantage of a certain situation, like war, uncertainty, supply chains issues, inflation etc? And what if the countries go into a long recession and / or stagflation? How could that impact this product? Thank you.
@kyri0882 commodities are always a speculation. Not an investment, not to mention a long one. They have no cashflows. Unless you buy low and sell high, you lose money.
george the animal steele profile picture
I still m its 1.52 trump gas and no wars under trump
Throwing Ketchup profile picture
@george the animal steele $1.52 during Covid, when nobody was leaving the house, when oil overproduction suddenly meant that you could be PAID to take it. Oil companies shut down as much as made sense. Post Covid lock in, oil companies are being slow to reopening because they are making boatloads; no rush. But gas is down now for six straight weeks. tRump also illegally tried to black mail Ukr into pushing dirt (which is very likely real, though yet adjudicated) on Hunter) in exchange for releasing arms already granted for them by Congress. All unseemly and illegal. All of which has helped to get us to the shut storm we are experiencing. No innocents in this.
Who Moved My Cheese profile picture
Resistance yesterday and more today. Hope next week looks good.
ONLY because market was a mega vega inflated BUBBLE as of Jan2022. Everybody called the bubble saying it was the most expensive historically, it came back to normal. Gilburt cost people billions
@Oramokoma nope, he was the only one who called a pullback. The rest of the doom and gloom parrots just got lucky this time. Those have been praying doom and gloom since '20.
Michael Bryant profile picture
"...government bonds ($TBT) ($TLT) ($SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865...S&P 500 ($SP500) ($SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872...commodities are on track for their best year since 1946."

Looks like in is time to buy government bonds and stocks and sell commodities. $TBT, a short fund, has actually done quite well and looks like a potential short term buy and a long term sell. https://schrts.co/tgHXJvWc $TLT, however, looks like a long term buy. https://schrts.co/NYDwMPdg But it looks like $SHY could fall more. https://schrts.co/nyszJIRj
Where is CNBC Half Time; Tom Lee ?
@Maverick 2021 He's the Bitcoin $100k by year end guy?
Once again, many of the CNBC Half Time traders (MMs) are tell you to buy, buy, buy, as the market has bottomed talking points continues .....

Mr. All In once again is saying buy in the "middle of the down turn" ....?

Turn them off and watch the technicals kick in then nibble !

Fed is still rising rates and executing QT .....
Diesel profile picture
From 2019 to 2021, everyone and their uncle was buying stocks to make easy money. This year everyone and their uncle is shorting the markets and selling everything they ever bought.

The only way of making any money this year is going short. The days of buying stocks and making money is pretty much over for the foreseeable future.
@Diesel are you short? :-) I continue making money every month. More and more of it actually. So there are ways. Just not buy and hold and hope for the best ways.

I make money. Going long big pharma, biotech, med-tech et.c.
Diesel profile picture
This is one of the ugliest years ever in stock market history. This is even worse than 2020 or 2008. There is no bottom to this market and we could drop for years before any buyers step in. No one wants to touch anything except for oil.

One week we dump because of inflation fears. Next week inflation fears subdue but now we dump for recession fears. Next week recession fears subdue but we dump again because some company missed estimates. The next week we dump again because someone tripped and fell in some country across the ocean. This is constant selling and dumping for any reason or excuse every single day, week and month.
thumb.ai profile picture
Which should mean that buying this year will be rewarded. Look at the chart. Worst years ever were single years.

For buy low, sell high, who wouldn't wish they could buy in the worst year ever?
John Leszar profile picture
@thumbsoup Apparently you have a crystal ball that will tell you when we've reached the REAL low?
I'm with Diesel on this one.
I don't blame Biden for his disastrous domestic and foreign policy, or his encouraging Putin to take Ukraine through his embarrassing retreat from Afghanistan that stranded thousands of Americans and allies behind. Lots of senile elderly people in nursing homes dream of being President of the USA instead of President of the canasta club.

I blame the people who put him into power. They are who need to be marginalized in both business and politics.
MWinMD profile picture
@Found.Alpha Wow, I did not know that Biden was King of the World! Inflation and hiking interest rates is happening in every single nation around the globe. The things I hear children and Republicans say are really something.

Trump literally tried to pull Ukraine's defenses from them as Russian tanks were on their borders if they didn't concoct false stories about his political opponent. And he literally changed his party's platform on Ukraine to what Boss Putin wanted - WHILE Putin was helping him get elected here (which he knew about). But yeah, Ukraine's Biden's fault. /s

@MWinMD One more Low information liberal filling up my screen with gibberish. People like you are why we are having a recession. People who failed to understand economics, because you spend your time trolling the Internet

Obama never gave Ukraine a single weapon. Trump was the first to do that. Obama gave Putin the greenlight to take the whole country, and Biden gave him another greenlight when he ordered US troops to Reenact the 1975 fall of Saigon last summer.

His weakness is what actually caused the war. Own it
Absolutely brutal market.
Intl Investment Services profile picture
This is to response titles like "Inflation reached to 40-year high"?
Who Moved My Cheese profile picture
This, Trump, Biden, Jan 6., Covid, Inflation, Prices up to 1000% over value, Ukraine, Record Heat, Record Wind, Record after record.

And what is the main focus in this broken country. Abortions and gay marriage.
@Mlon Eusk

@Mlon Eusk Tut tut, don't forget "gender-affirming" care.
MWinMD profile picture
@Cryptoanalytic Emotionally supporting Trans kids doesn't hurt anyone. Forcing women and girls to birth and raise their rapists' offspring makes us a barbaric country emulating the Taliban. And it's already terrifying doctors who need to perform abortions to save women's lives.
is this classified as WWIII or are we holding off on that title so we don't spook investors.
@DomL we are currently at war with Russia. Like most US wars it’s called a proxy war.
Meanwhile Joe went to war with the oil industry - shut down the Keystone, stopped east-west oil leases, stifled oil drilling, added costly new regulations - he treated our oil commodity like a cheap girlfriend. He pushed all the Covid panic buttons and extended shutdowns which further impacted the supply chains, he had a vaccine but politicized it, and extended unnecessary welfare spending after the recovery was in full swing. No mean tweets but he did call news reporters who questioned him on inflation a "stupid son of a *****."
@logictrain nobody should run for president at 70+. Except in countries where the position is purely representative. Hey, we don't get any smarter as we age. I certainly don't :-)
$tart profile picture
@Fero. President Biden is 80 now. Over 80 no one should run for President; particularly Biden and Trump (Trump would be 80 1/2 way through the term if elected).
@$tart agreed.
Chris Lau profile picture
It's only fitting to compare performance to war.
This is the War Economy.
Invest accordingly in military.

Dividend Seeker profile picture
Expect a year-end rally if the November mid-terms go according to plan...
@Dividend Seeker whats the plan?
@Dividend Seeker highly doubt the result is what every one thinks. I expect 80 million+ votes for every single democrat in every single election. even if the state doesn't even have 80 million residents
GI21284 profile picture
@Finding Your Retirement MAGA Republicans will expect victories in every single House and Senate race. And in every race where they lose, they will claim it was only because of "voter fraud." After all, it was Trump himself who, as the lying, scheming sack of crap he is, set the tone for the criminality and insurrection that was to follow when he said, "The only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged [August 2020]."

And I expect Republicans to claim millions of fraudulent votes -- all of them for Democrats, of course -- despite their inability to back up their bullshit with facts, and despite their baseless claims being knocked down as worthless by court after court after court -- as happened after the 2020 election. After all -- if you can't win in a democracy, you can simply seize power the old-fashioned banana republic way, or via the newer Russia model based on intimidation and lies, from which TrumpWorld has learned so much.
I talk to lots of people about the markets and their portfolios. There seems to be a barbell distribution. Those that have a very pragmatic and disciplined approach to life and by extension their attitude and expectations about money and markets have lost a little. Nothing that will alter their retirement and lifestyle.

The other camp is those who got suckered into the growth stock chase and ended up with an investment portfolio far to exposed to megacap growth stocks, SPACs, recent IPOs and were using leverage have been crushed.

We look back at time and we gain experience and wisdom. Chasing fads (EVs, Cannabis, Crypto, SPACs) will not turn out well compared to balanced and measured.

Most investors should simply by low cost market benchmarked ETFs and stop the timing and MOMO stuff. They'd be way ahead.
@DavidHHolmes yes but what about the lure of getting rich instantly!? Give it up? No way, LOL.
@DavidHHolmes as always, let the Great One sum it up. Warren Buffett has said, “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”
@mrNCSU and from the inpatient to the outpatient too :-)
Djreef1966 profile picture
Wait until you see the back half of the year. Commodities, bonds and (soon) stocks have already started to flip.

The Fed will throw in the towell at some point in the near future.

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