Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War, commodities best since WWII
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This year is shaping up to be historic in terms of real asset performance, according to BofA Securities.
In his weekly Flow Show note, strategist Michael Hartnett wrote Friday that in real terms, government bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865.
The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872, Hartnett said.
Meanwhile, commodities are on track for their best year since 1946.
Broad commodity ETFs: DBC, JO, PDBC, GSG, COMT, DJP, BCI, USCI, COM, GCC, FTGC, RJI, COMB, BCD, CMDY, GSP, FAAR, BCM, GSC, SDCI, JJS, CCRV, EAPCX, EIPCX, DJCB, UCIB, HGER, HCOM, PQCMX, PQCZX
Fed expectations peaking
Fed hike expectations are "peaking," with the largest inflows into TIPS (TIP) in 12 weeks, Hartnett said. But inflation expectations are not peaking, with the 14th-consecutive week of outflows from Financials (XLF).
Materials (XLB) and Energy (XLE) saw the largest outflow ever, while the largest inflow into emerging market equities (EEM) (VWO) in nine weeks indicated that recession odds are rising.
See Wolfe Research's stock market bottom checklist.
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Comments (76)
The DJIA, in various down years:1929 -17.27%
1930 -33.77%
1931 -52.67%
1932 -23.07%
1937 -32.82%1974 -27.57%
2008 -33.84%
2022 (as of Sept. 7): -13.09%Source: Macrotrends
www.macrotrends.net/...In the face of these statistics, to say that “STOCKS, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War” is nothing more than headline-grabbing, sensationalist nonsense.
1930 -33.77%
1931 -52.67%
1932 -23.07%
1937 -32.82%1974 -27.57%
2008 -33.84%
2022 (as of Sept. 7): -13.09%Source: Macrotrends
www.macrotrends.net/...In the face of these statistics, to say that “STOCKS, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War” is nothing more than headline-grabbing, sensationalist nonsense.
@The Real Cavalier It's about the inherent dangers of extrapolating short-term performance over an extended time period. For example, from mid-July to mid-August -- even in this struggling market year -- the DJIA went from approx. 31250 to 34250 ... that's a 3000-pt bump, or 9.6%. Extrapolated over a year, that would translate to a DJI gain of 115%.How foolish and misleading it would have been, just a few weeks ago at DJI = 34250, to have written an article entitled, "Stocks are on track for one of the best 12-month performances ever."
Hey guys. I need a little help here. Im interested to buy this product. My question is, when it says commodities, which ones exactly are in this product? And in your opinion, could this investment be a long one, or just to take advantage of a certain situation, like war, uncertainty, supply chains issues, inflation etc? And what if the countries go into a long recession and / or stagflation? How could that impact this product? Thank you.
@george the animal steele $1.52 during Covid, when nobody was leaving the house, when oil overproduction suddenly meant that you could be PAID to take it. Oil companies shut down as much as made sense. Post Covid lock in, oil companies are being slow to reopening because they are making boatloads; no rush. But gas is down now for six straight weeks. tRump also illegally tried to black mail Ukr into pushing dirt (which is very likely real, though yet adjudicated) on Hunter) in exchange for releasing arms already granted for them by Congress. All unseemly and illegal. All of which has helped to get us to the shut storm we are experiencing. No innocents in this.
"...government bonds ($TBT) ($TLT) ($SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865...S&P 500 ($SP500) ($SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872...commodities are on track for their best year since 1946."Looks like in is time to buy government bonds and stocks and sell commodities. $TBT, a short fund, has actually done quite well and looks like a potential short term buy and a long term sell. https://schrts.co/tgHXJvWc $TLT, however, looks like a long term buy. https://schrts.co/NYDwMPdg But it looks like $SHY could fall more. https://schrts.co/nyszJIRj
From 2019 to 2021, everyone and their uncle was buying stocks to make easy money. This year everyone and their uncle is shorting the markets and selling everything they ever bought.The only way of making any money this year is going short. The days of buying stocks and making money is pretty much over for the foreseeable future.
This is one of the ugliest years ever in stock market history. This is even worse than 2020 or 2008. There is no bottom to this market and we could drop for years before any buyers step in. No one wants to touch anything except for oil.One week we dump because of inflation fears. Next week inflation fears subdue but now we dump for recession fears. Next week recession fears subdue but we dump again because some company missed estimates. The next week we dump again because someone tripped and fell in some country across the ocean. This is constant selling and dumping for any reason or excuse every single day, week and month.
@thumbsoup Apparently you have a crystal ball that will tell you when we've reached the REAL low?
I'm with Diesel on this one.
I'm with Diesel on this one.
@Found.Alpha Wow, I did not know that Biden was King of the World! Inflation and hiking interest rates is happening in every single nation around the globe. The things I hear children and Republicans say are really something. Trump literally tried to pull Ukraine's defenses from them as Russian tanks were on their borders if they didn't concoct false stories about his political opponent. And he literally changed his party's platform on Ukraine to what Boss Putin wanted - WHILE Putin was helping him get elected here (which he knew about). But yeah, Ukraine's Biden's fault. /swww.washingtonpost.com/...
This, Trump, Biden, Jan 6., Covid, Inflation, Prices up to 1000% over value, Ukraine, Record Heat, Record Wind, Record after record. And what is the main focus in this broken country. Abortions and gay marriage.
@Cryptoanalytic Emotionally supporting Trans kids doesn't hurt anyone. Forcing women and girls to birth and raise their rapists' offspring makes us a barbaric country emulating the Taliban. And it's already terrifying doctors who need to perform abortions to save women's lives.
It's only fitting to compare performance to war.
This is the War Economy.
Invest accordingly in military.seekingalpha.com/...
This is the War Economy.
Invest accordingly in military.seekingalpha.com/...
@Finding Your Retirement MAGA Republicans will expect victories in every single House and Senate race. And in every race where they lose, they will claim it was only because of "voter fraud." After all, it was Trump himself who, as the lying, scheming sack of crap he is, set the tone for the criminality and insurrection that was to follow when he said, "The only way we’re going to lose this election is if the election is rigged [August 2020]."And I expect Republicans to claim millions of fraudulent votes -- all of them for Democrats, of course -- despite their inability to back up their bullshit with facts, and despite their baseless claims being knocked down as worthless by court after court after court -- as happened after the 2020 election. After all -- if you can't win in a democracy, you can simply seize power the old-fashioned banana republic way, or via the newer Russia model based on intimidation and lies, from which TrumpWorld has learned so much.
Wait until you see the back half of the year. Commodities, bonds and (soon) stocks have already started to flip.The Fed will throw in the towell at some point in the near future.