Middle East rig count falls, as OPEC misses production targets again

Joey Ingelhart/E+ via Getty Images

Baker Hughes (BKR) released its monthly international rig count report Friday, showing rising rig counts globally (SLB), outside of the Middle East (ARMCO). In percentage terms, Europe saw the largest jump (SHEL), as the continent's rig count reached 87. Still well below the ~200 rigs running pre-pandemic, but up from 79 rigs in May. Rigs running in Africa rose by 2 (TTE) to 78, while Latin America (PBR) saw an increase of 5 rigs to 160. Interestingly, the Middle East saw rig count fall to 303 in June from 314 in May; Middle East rig counts remain well below pre-pandemic levels of ~430.

Thursday, President Biden requested Gulf nations increase oil production. There's been debate over exactly how much spare production capacity remains within OPEC, as President Macron recently indicated that the Gulf states are nearly tapped out. Friday, Reuters reported that OPEC production actually fell in June, despite an increase in quotas across the cartel. According to the survey, production fell 100kb/d, with declines in Nigeria and outages in Libya offsetting increased production from Saudi Arabia.

Historically, OPEC has been hesitant to cede market share to the US. When OPEC cut production near the end of 2016, the US responded with over 3mb/d of production growth by 2018 (XOM) (CVX). Post pandemic there appears to be less risk of losing market share, as the shale patch remains hamstrung by supply chain headwinds, labor shortages and policy threats. Whether Gulf nations respond to the President's request for higher production remains to be seen; however, low and falling rig counts do not point to an urgent at increasing supplies.

Comments

[D. Rockefeller]

Iraq has the longest lasting known oil reserves plus Venezuela. Saudi Arabia??? Common sense tells you are either in decline, approaching decline or have been in decline for awhile. From what I've heard the Saudis(heavily involved with the two Gulf Wars for Iraqi oil) have been buying Iraqi oil and selling it as their's for awhile. Main Stream news even reported Saudi Arabia is doubling purchases of Russian oil??? Pumping that field since the 1930's and they claim it's "reserves" keep going up? Mat Simmons the Houston Oil an banker and Council on Foreign Relations expert wrote the book "Twilight in the Desert" about Saudi Arabian oil and it's approaching decline quite awhile ago. MBS tales out all the other "Princes" at the Marriot and invests 500 billion in a hydrogen green ammonia city like the UAE??? We get slogans and agendas like "global warming/climate change" and now Nitrogen fertilizer bans? Whole modern "economy" is tied directly to the amount of fossil fuels used so we get lockdowns and vaccine scams with engineered viruses and BS to cut fuel use. Now it's food and farmers in the EU etc. have been protesting all this lunacy. Sri Lanka collapsed and the "president" fled after he banned importing nitrogen fertilizers and yields fell 50% and the Central bank busted plus they had defaulted on their debt in April. Wait until Canada implements this BS along with all the EU nations. Already have food shortages in Africa and Asia but underlying this? I sense depletion like in Saudi Arabia.

[ransim7222]

@D. Rockefeller
I have heard "peak oil" before but the Arctic and the Antarctic have not even been touched yet, so I withhold judgement.

[Irenaeus]

‘Just stop oil’ 🌈🤡

[Blue Blood]

Summertime need for energy is low plus high prices for transport fuel is inspiring efficiency and savings, workers are on holiday, airlines are cancelling flights, fewer peope take overseas vacations, events on Zoom reduce the need to travel, the Russian invasion continues and Covid 19 is resurgent while other scourges of polio and monkey pox appear. So decrasing OPEC output reflects the trend to conserve energy, save money and take a break.

[kenberthiaume]

@Blue Blood summer driving season? Summertime energy demands are the highest.

[ransim7222]

@kenberthiaume
Who is this guy and is he at all informed about the US in July? I just got my highest electricity bill of the year. And Polio, what the hell is he talking about?

[R. Brown]

Thanks Nathan, as always a fine job.

Rob.

[Observer7]

The Middle East, OPEC and the entire world are laughing at the Biden (Mal)Administration. This group of clowns are mocked by anyone with an ounce of adult responsibility.

[Maddog1529]

If your advisor doesn't have an energy play by now.......fire them!!!

[jimoc]

not to worry, joes on the way soon. He'll do for you, what he's done for America.

[jackrussels]

Do not believe any producer is anxious to increase supply and push down prices. They’ll all drag their feet and enjoy the revenue while working less.

[StockyTradah]

How can the Middle East be at capacity when they have 303 rigs running now, but 430 pre pandemic? Shouldn’t 403 be their capacity?

[Elarotsap]

@StockyTradah Maybe they're in a personnel stand-down for critical race theory & gender pronouns training. Gotta check those ESG boxes, right?😐

[Camron Taylor]

@StockyTradah Superintendent for CLR here, they don’t necessarily mean Refinery’s Capacity, but more capacities related to operators on the ground for every single stage in the process and new exploratory wells being drilled, then of course refinery’s ability to match demand.

[Duke22]

@Long Account
Do you think Joetard telling the world that he we was going to make Saudi Arabia a "Pariah State" and then going further and personally insulting the Saudi Prince Muhamad Bin Salmon has any bearing on the Saudis/OPEC being willing to ramp up production?

[Tparkervb]

And now energy stocks are negatively correlated to the price of oil. Cant make this up

[edaskew]

How many opportunities are investors going to get to jump on to this multi-year energy bull market? How many times are people going to miss the boat?

[DRPJS]

@edaskew I think it's already too late ..but with Biden prices and profits could go up.

[edaskew]

@DRPJS I think we're just getting started. It's not just our president, there is a whole segment of the population out there, here and abroad, who are kidding themselves when it comes to energy.

[huskers123]

OPEC will promise Joe 683K barrels per day, why not a million…lol. OPEC has yet to meet the increase promised 3 meetings ago. They just don’t have it.

[jimoc]

@huskers123 maybe joe will scold them too!

[Camron Taylor]

@huskers123 that simple. They need Russian Oil when it comes to the strength of their cartel.

[Nudossi73]

The low-hanging fruits have been harvested.
Oil is no longer available in abundance.
In the future, oil will be liquid gold and no longer cheap.
Therefore, an energy transition makes sense and is even necessary to maintain prosperity.

[User 31614085]

@Nudossi73 Nuclear seems the logical solution..but the nutjob greenies will insist on something stupid like solar or wind...

[edaskew]

@Nudossi73 We're waiting. Get 'er done.

[secorewb]

@Nudossi73 at least you did not reference 'peak oil'. Sorry, they keep finding large deposits to replace and add to production.

[Diesel]

Maybe we should kindly ask Russia to increase oil production.

[R. Brown]

@Diesel

HaHa Ha. Place sanctions on your products and then blame you for the prices going up...anybody thinking out there?

Rob.

[Brian27]

Three Stooges Biden, Pelisi and Schumur strategy. Cancel XL pipelines , increase regs , cut permits then beg our enemies for oil.

[martyr1777]

@Brian27 Enemies? The Saudi's were are best friends when Trump was in office.

But aside from that...
More permits approved than the last administrations.

www.blm.gov/...

And KXL was meaningless, record production in Alberta, and record exports from Canada.

economicdashboard.alberta.ca/...

financialpost.com/...

[bet727]

@martyr1777 Nonsense!

[sspencer]

I think this is a very poorly written article. Why not present a full table? What is the total rig count? What is the US rig count? What are the numbers for US and Int'l onshore / offshore?

[secorewb]

Could you publish the link to that report ? Thanks.

[Darren McCammon]

Well done Nathan, nice to see an editor who can include accurate cause and effect analysis.

[User 56360468]

"According to the survey, production fell 100kb/d, with declines in Nigeria and outages in Libya offsetting increased production from Saudi Arabia"

Maybe it wasn't such a smart idea to encourage disinvestment, or block permits, for US fossil fuels projects? Maybe the average American isn't actually more secure, or secure at all, when their ability to pay their bills depends on high levels of production in countries like Russia, Libya and Nigeria?

Do better next time, voters. Mean tweets, and who vocally supports unisex bathrooms in schools, aren't what you should be basing your votes on.

[DirtyMike]

@Found.Alpha the US produces about the same amount of oil as it consumes. The problem is the global prices are higher so for an American producer why sell it cheaply domestically when you can export it and get a higher price? That's why US prices have increased.

[User 56360468]

@DirtyMike you propose we cut off Europe from access to oil? I hear a lot of the same people proposing that idea also saying they support Ukraine against Putin. Anyone who'd seriously propose we cut off Europe from access to US oil is proposing we literally push them and the rest of the world into Putin's hands. The only viable solution to the world energy crisis not involving capitulation to Putin is massively expanding US production of fossil fuels. Green tech vaporware has failed to live up to the promises. Solar panels, windmills and the other eco-trinkets have not delivered what their hypesters promised. Fossil fuels are what powers most of the world and what will power the world throughout the lifetime of everyone alive today.

All those years of disinvestment campaigns, anti-fossil fuels lawfare and blocking of permits by politicians appeasing their eco-radical leftist base handed Putin most of his power. He invades neighbors when gasoline prices are driven up. The pattern is obvious to anyone with functioning brain cells. Putin invaded Georgia in 2008 as gasoline prices peaked and he invaded Ukraine the first time in 2014 as gasoline prices peaked. Biden's administration has consistently blocked new permits for US oil, gas, refineries and pipelines since he took office, driving global oil prices up, because America is failing to play its vital role as a top producer of fossil fuels. For Biden, there's no common bird nest, squirrel nest or tree branch with an owl sitting on it that doesn't take precedence over American energy security

If Joe Biden and the democrats actually cared about stopping Putin, or making life affordable for the population, they'd be offering tax credits to bring old refineries back into operation, building new refineries, and issuing permits for drilling on federal lands. There is twice as much oil in the federally owned Green River Basin alone than in all of Saudi Arabia.

[DirtyMike]

@Found.Alpha 1. I did not and do not propose putting an export ban on US oil. If you look at my past comments you will see I actually have argued not to do this. I am merely pointing out why US prices are high while we are also producing the same amount we consume. AKA it's external factors.
2. Can you back up this comment, "Biden's administration has consistently blocked new permits for US oil, gas, refineries and pipelines since he took office, driving global oil prices up, because America is failing to play its vital role as a top producer of fossil fuels"
It should be noted that the US has not built a new refinery since 1977 so I am wondering exactly which refinery was blocked by the Biden administration? Or are you just making stuff up?
It should also be noted that America is the #1 oil producer in the world, so tell me how they are not playing the vital role of a top producer?

Also, you do realize that any new refineries wouldn't be online until at least 2024? There are new pipelines being built such as the Permian Basin NG pipeline. Energy Transfer said it would take about two years to get that online. If all this infrastructure takes so long to build, why wasn't the previous administration pushing for it, foreseeing that the world was too dependent on a couple of producers?

I'd love to hear your thoughts on my comments above.

[polecat]

What are SA’s reserve’s with the current production?