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Tesla earnings preview: Eyes on run rates, margins and free cash flow

Jul. 19, 2022 2:37 PM ETTesla, Inc. (TSLA)By: Clark Schultz, SA News Editor51 Comments

Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory

Xiaolu Chu

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is due to report earnings after the closing bell on Wednesday to expectations for revenue of $16.9B and EPS of $1.80 for a quarter disrupted by COVID-related slowdowns in Shanghai. 18 of the last 22 EPS revisions

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Comments (51)

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Do you think Elon Musk speak about twitter deal today during earnings call-

Sunil Shah profile picture

"We already have Cathie's analysis using her Monte Carlo simulations showing a bear-case valuation of 3,000 per share."

Monte Carlo simulations work better in the real casino than this one

btw TSLA is the SOLE stock that Wood got 'right.'
IMO TSLA is the sole stock that Wood bought that MR MARKET HAS GOT WRONG.

Perfectly flawless and rational argument to reconcile Wood as a 100% dud, and Mr Market 99% right, as it should be.

PS TSLA is the SOLE stock that Wood got 'right.' in her entire ARKK.
See attribution analysis of ARKK for yourself.
Sunil Shah profile picture
although I haven't done a detailed analysis of this coming 2q, i have reasonable conviction Tesla will disappoint the street consensus of $1.98.
-we have heard MUSKRAT repeating last month that Berlin and Austin are "gigantic money furnaces right now."
-cos street estimates have hardly budged in last 90 days, down v little from 90 Days Ago of $2.34
-how can margins slip SOO LITTLE with a fixed cost base like Tesla's ?
-the only positive could be the rabbit of reg credits to save the bacon for 2q, and REMEMBER booking of reg credits is LARGELY AT MGMT DISCRETION !
-the other marginal positive is higher Model s/x in mix, which will raise avg ASP

There is no way in hell after q2, continuing chip shortage, hiccups at Berlin and Austin, that Tesla will deliver 1.4m cars in 2022;
You can mark le post
ZamboniGuy profile picture
@Sunil Shah
“ i have reasonable conviction Tesla will disappoint the street consensus of $1.98”
Unfortunately for you bad guess;
Happily for myself & other longs TSLA is performing well
Mister Doom profile picture
CNBC will talk about this stock all day. Just like NFLX on Tuesday,
There are other stocks, same stuff from them everyday, plus Dans
Negative mouth, don’t watch it like I used to.
Who cares about earnings?
We already have Cathie's analysis using her Monte Carlo simulations showing a bear-case valuation of 3,000 per share.
Let's see: let's take Tesla's 55b revenue from FY21. Let's put in a 10% free cashflow margin and assume that revenues will grow 50% per year for 10 years.
Let's assume that Tesla will trade at a P/FCF multiple of 20 by then.
Discounting at 10%, you then get 3,000.
All very realistic for a car company.
Cathie, you are a m0r0n.
Tesla bag holder wannabes, you too.
EV_supporter profile picture

I bet you are not aware of Tesla's long term business plan.
@mwilson801 back of the napkin. Looks good!
Legacy Legends, LLC profile picture
Tesla is expected to grow substantially regardless of short-term headwinds, Its been one of the best investments this last decade, its current forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.8X which is a fraction of its 23.9X high in 2021.

Buy and hold!
@Legacy Legends, LLC the only way to make TSLA look like a good investment is to compare it to itself. Got it.
Legacy Legends, LLC profile picture

Who's in second place?
deercreekvols profile picture
@Legacy Legends, LLC

$TSLA does not rank in the Top 10 over the last decade. (These rankings are of May 2020- the decade being 2010 to 2020)

#1- $TDG
#2- $LNG
#3- $DXCM
#4- $EXAS
#5- $NXST
#6- $MKTX
#7- $TREE
#8- $NBIX
#9- $NFLX
#10- $DPZ

Who is in second place? $LNG is in second place. Missing, of course, from the Top 10 over the last decade is $TSLA. Again, the decade covered is from 2010 to 2020.

Not sure where $TSLA ranks as this article only covers the top ten.


Cheers and Stay Long!
Think I agree with @Sunshine2030 but I do like a rocket that comes back and lands where you want.
truwa profile picture
Revenues... down.
Margins... down.
Credits... down.
Expenses... up.
BTC... ($500) million.
Profits... down.

The above is already priced in. Investors are already looking for H2 2022.

An upside on margins is a possibility though because of the numerous price increases during the last 3 quarters.
Fraud of century, selling level 5 fsd with 1.2mp camera hardware since 2016. When is fsd drive from ny to la, million robotaxis, Elon is a hype. I owned M3 for 2yrs. Cheapshit quality, so may repairs. Its just cheapshit EV at $75k with basic enhanced autopilot including taxes. You surely have inferiority complex to buy one for show off or immature enough when you can buy VW id4 for $40k after fed incentives
CKut profile picture
@Sunshine2030 A performance M3 with added paint, interior, and enhanced AP currently costs $72,000, less than the $75k you say you paid when the vehicle was cheaper 2 years ago. At least use a realistic number if you're making something up
N3wt profile picture
@Sunshine2030 Tesla isnt cheap but add at least 5k to 10k for that dealer markup...
@CKut yes add my color, delivery and taxes to model Y. Compare y with id4 not m3. I get $1200 off msrp from dealer no markup. Picked 2 id4s
Tesla - awaiting on the next round of government subsidies to produce cars of limited range requiring a $25,000 repair at 80,000 miles.
shortoptimism profile picture
@San Marzano All vehicles have limited range. Not all vehicles charge overnight while you sleep and start with a full tank every morning.
EV_supporter profile picture
@San Marzano

Actually Tesla batteries can easily last 300k to 500k miles. They are working on a battery that could last 100 years.

Tesla people are working so hard to make the world a better place. Clean air helps everyone including you and your children.
CKut profile picture
@San Marzano That is factually incorrect
shortoptimism profile picture
The only thing I want to hear about the Twitter deal is "it's over, and I'm now devoting all my time back to Tesla, SpaceX, and making babies with random women."
EV_supporter profile picture

If in the end Elon Musk is able to walk from Twitter deal, I'm 99% sure he will start a new platform, which will be the end of Twitter.
shortoptimism profile picture
@EV_supporter Agree. don't know if I like that. but I agree
@shortoptimism I pray that your forgot a /s at the end of your post because otherwise, you and Musk are competing with Caligula for the most despicable leader award....
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