Restaurants show 6% Y/Y growth in appetite for August

Sep. 08, 2022 12:26 PM ETMCD, DRI, YUM, SBUX, JACK, CMG, CAKE, DPZ, BJRI, TXRH, CHUY, LOCO, SHAK, QSR, WING, BROS, PTLO, PORTBy: Manshi Mamtora, CFA32 Comments

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  • According to Baird Real-Time Restaurants Survey reports, for week ended September 4, same-store sales up 6% vs. +5% in August, +4% in July, and +6% in Q2 overall.
  • The sample size included chains representing ~$10B in annualized sales, which is somewhat smaller than their usual sample size of $12B-15B.
  • Three-year comparisons are holding up well, helped by favorable weather/calendar comparisons vs. 2019. Overall sample were +20% in the most recent week, on average August (+17%) and July (+16%).
  • Segment-wise: fast-casual +26% (August +21%, July +21%), quick-service +21% (August +20%, July +18%), and casual dining +2% (August +1%, July flat).
  • Stocks on the watch: BJ's Restaurants (BJRI); Dutch Bros (BROS); The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE); Chuy's (CHUY); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Domino's Pizza (DPZ); Darden Restaurants (DRI); Jack in the Box (JACK);El Pollo Loco (LOCO); McDonald's (MCD); Portillo's (PTLO); Restaurant Brands International (QSR); Starbucks (SBUX); Shake Shack (SHAK); Texas RoadHouse (TXRH); Wingstop (WING); Yum! Brands (YUM)

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