September restaurant surveys fair better than other months

Sep. 28, 2022 11:08 AM ETMCD, DRI, YUM, SBUX, JACK, CMG, CAKE, DPZ, BJRI, TXRH, CHUY, LOCO, SHAK, QSR, WING, BUX, BROS, PTLOBy: Manshi Mamtora, CFA20 Comments

Close up of a young group of friends passing and serving food while enjoying together. They are having fun, chatting and feasting on food and drinks at dinner party

AsiaVision

According to Baird Real-Time Restaurants Survey reports, for week ended September 25, same-store sales up 7% compared to last year. Averaged +7% for the month of September vs. +5% in August, +4% in July, and +6% in Q2 overall. The sample size included chains representing ~$11B.

Three-year comparisons tracked +19%, after +20% last week and +21% in the first two weeks. Slowdown exiting the month was fueled mainly by a downtick for quick-service brands, and to a lesser extent, casual dining. September averaged +20%, compared to +17% August and +16% July.

Segment-wise: casual dining +2% (August +1%, July flat); fast-casual +26% (August +21%, July +21%), quick-service +23% (August +20%, July +18%).

Stocks on the watch: BJ's Restaurants (BJRI); Dutch Bros (BROS); The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE); Chuy's (CHUY); Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG); Domino's Pizza (DPZ); Darden Restaurants (DRI); Jack in the Box (JACK);El Pollo Loco (LOCO); McDonald's (MCD); Portillo's (PTLO); Restaurant Brands International (QSR); Starbucks (SBUX); Shake Shack (SHAK); Texas RoadHouse (TXRH); Wingstop (WING); Yum! Brands (YUM)

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