22 numbers to note from 2022 from Bank of America

Khanchit Khirisutchalual

Main Street outperformed Wall Street in 2022, but faces a hard landing next year, according to BofA Securities.

This year the "ratio of financial assets to GDP dropped from remarkable 6.2x to 5.4x as wages rose, asset prices slumped," strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in his weekly Flow Show note Friday.

But next year monetary policy will drive a mean reversion of an abnormally low 3.7% jobless rate close to the average of 6.2% in the past 50 years, the 2.3% personal savings rate (9% over the past 60 year) and 1.5% corporate default rate (3.8% since 2005), Hartnett added.

The team summarized 2022 in 22 numbers:

• 9.1% - US CPI hit a 40-year high
• 45.8% - German PPI hit a 100-year high
• 2 - number of Fed rate hikes forecast for 2022 in the BofA Global FMS in December 2021
• 284 - number of central bank rate hikes YTD in 2022
• 5.4x - ratio of US private sector financial assets to GDP (vs peak of 6.2x)
• 1969 - US unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, lowest since 1969
• 34% - record YoY rise in Miami house prices YoY in May’22
• -35% - return from the 30-year US Treasury bond (US30Y) (TBT) (TLT), worst in over a century
• <$1T - crypto currency crash took crypto market market cap from $3T to <$1T
• 2 - commodities (DBC) were best performing asset class for 2nd consecutive year
• 90% - rise in natural gas prices (NG1:COM) (UNG), best performing commodity of ‘22
• 382M barrels - US strategic petroleum (USO) (CL1:COM) reserve slashed to lowest since 1984
• €750B - fiscal policy stimulus in Europe & UK to offset war
• 47% - rise in Chevron (CVX), best performing stock in Dow Jones
• -49% - collapse in Salesforce (CRM), worst performing stock in Dow Jones
• $3.6T - market cap slump in FAAMG (Facebook (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL))
• $33T - global equity market cap slump from November 2021 high
• -50% - decline in private equity (PSP) (PEX) stocks from November 2021 high
• 2009 - Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell to lowest level since 2009
• 33% - yield on China HY bonds rose to staggering 33% (spreads>3000bps)
• -16% - Japanese yen (FXY) was worst performing major currency
• 76% - best performing equity market in US$-terms was Turkey (TUR)

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