Comcast set for steady crawl up in Q4 despite broadband headwinds
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Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Thursday, January 26th, before market open.
The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.78 (+1.3% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $30.36B (+0.1% Y/Y).
Over the last 3 months, EPS estimates have seen 2 upward revisions and 18 downward. Revenue estimates have seen 3 upward revisions and 17 downward.
Evercore expects Comcast to report around 50K fewer residential broadband subs in Q4 amid pressure from Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T) with their fiber and fixed wireless businesses. Video subs are also set to drop 550K sequentially. Video and voice revenues will continue to decline, offsetting growth from broadband, advertising and wireless.
Wells Fargo has held a more balanced, albeit bearish, view on the stock, citing fairly stable cable net cash flow despite the competitive environment and stronger-than-expected in broadband ARPU.
SA contributor Michele Pagliaro also highlighted Comcast's strong balance sheet and free cash flow as positives in a bullish analysis at the start of the year, with slow but stable revenue and earnings growth.
Truist too upgraded Comcast (CMCSA) at the start of the year, citing negative share-price performance in 2022 and several "well understood" risks.
Its analyst noted that Comcast is likely to keep buying back stock, with expectations that the pair will buy back $8B and $7.2B in stock in 2023 and $8B each in 2024. Evercore estimates around $3B in share buybacks in Q4.
Beyond buybacks, investors and analysts will likely be looking at management comments on the year ahead and the impact of macroeconomic challenges that might put pressure on Comcast's steady growth and balanced cash flow.
Over the last 2 years, CMCSA has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 100% of the time.