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Nasdaq, S&P off session highs but on track to extend post-Fed rally; Dow in the red

crash of the stock exchanges

franckreporter

U.S. stocks on Thursday had come off their session highs, but sentiment was overall positive as Meta's rally added to post-Fed elation. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 were on track to extend their rally from the previous session.

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Comments (54)

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L
1 month ago there was some decent deals and now everything is overvalued again. How is MCD, KO, or PEP worth 20+ PEs with slow growth in a market where earnings are likely to fall? Interesting…..stocks should be way lower. Time to sit on my hands and accumulate cash I suppose 🤷‍♂️
T
Haha I called it.
TigerCub911 profile picture
Both Nasdaq & Russell 2000 exited the bear market today. S&P500 & Dow will soon follow. That's awesome!
T
The last 15 minutes look to be interesting just like yesterday. Watch Apple for a spike into the close.
GR Value profile picture
@The Real Cavalier Probably nice little bear trap intraday. All that's left are bear traps to 4300 and a impotent fed that is mr magoo. Maybe these drops intraday are to make shorts think not to cover until it fully goes up?
Gary Jakacky profile picture
Productivity costs? :)
m
Banks are down, probably another financial crisis looming
m
A 7% Amazon rally pre-earnings...
Tells you everything you need to know about the speculative nature of this "investing" that is going on...
Seriously, just tax every press of a button already.
w
Meanwhile bond market, which is much bigger, is doing well, yields falling. If equities roll over funds could panic very quickly into treasuries.

The "irrational" market keeps doing it's irrational thing upwards, though, for the time being .. :)
p
Meta's earnings report is the tide that's lifting all boats today. Look for Google to post good earnings and Amazon too. The big tech recovery will be the story of 2023 - it certainly is so far.
As markets are reassured that the Fed have "their back", they can just go all in, no matter recession, no matter if the soft landing narrative is hollow, while the worse names in the Nasdaq steal huge amounts of capital from the best handled businesses. That's what happens when markets aren't allowed to drop: nothing is reorganized for the better, there is no change. This is a central planning economy, folks, not a market economy. A potemkin village just for lazy rentiers, who are averse to doing their homework. And thinks look as shiny on paper as they're ugly on the street. Just look at the dollar index and try to convince me otherwise.
J.C.A. von Kauffmann profile picture
In my view there is pain coming, this is too much and to fast detached from reality
GR Value profile picture
@J.C.A. von Kauffmann Maybe just some bear traps. I can't see how we end lower with trapped shorts and a fed that's like mr magoo doesn't know the fight they are in. The worst thing they said and did was say we don't want a recession. My god the market says oh that's great then inequality led stagflation continues, metrics don't shrink, gambling continues. Fed lost it's mind. Wasted 10 rate hikes and blew it by saying nah no recession keep gambling and keep earning max. This is what happens when you ban recessions for 17 years and continue to do so. You blow up a debt and inequality bubble so high you risk crash every 3 years.
J.C.A. von Kauffmann profile picture
@GR Value Take at look at Smart Money vers Dumb Money, Smart M has stayed mostly on the sideline during this rally and Dumb M pouring in
T
@J.C.A. von Kauffmann my dumb money had an amazing January!
mike ekim profile picture
tech up 5 NO 15% TODAY ...wwwooo hoooo!!! ;)
MoneyPig profile picture
Some interesting numbers, FedTax receipts are 4 trillion, military spending is 800 billion (20%) and interest on debt is 500 million (12.5%).

www.thebalancemoney.com/...

It is so odd. Over two years tax receipts went from 2 trillion to 4 trillion. What? Where dis two trillion in new tax come from?

fred.stlouisfed.org/...
d
@MoneyPig common core maths, the Gooberment just doing what they do best, stealing money from every pocket./orifice
E
Denial phase of the bull-bear cycle. Ride it up, but the more it rises, the riskier it becomes. GLTA.
I guess this is what they mean time in the market beats timing the market. The market on average has boring days but if you miss out on the best days...you miss out on all the gains for the year.

Wow what a day. I haven't had a great day like this for...years literally.
The Clairvoyant profile picture
@ddssq

👍

Buy good companies when the market gives you the opportunity, and then just let them do their thing. It really doesn’t need to be any more complicated than that.
H
This euphoria is going to end very badly in the coming weeks.
a
@ckbn maybe for you
@ckbn Market is still "overall" down. What euphoria? There is still tons of bagholders waiting at meta 300+, nflx 700+, ark 100+.

The buy the dippers are making $ hand over fist, but there's no "euphoria" yet. If we were seeing meta at 500, nflx at 1000, and ark at 200...sure thats euphoria.
GR Value profile picture
@ckbn Probably not. The fed has failed as of 2/1/23. By admitting they think a "soft landing" is possible, they have proven to the markets that they aren't serious at all and don't know the fight they are in.

You cannot synonymously shrink metrics by forcing a recession, at the same time trying to not force a recession and allow high metrics to continue feeding inequality which grows and metastasizes into stagflation. All you get is a pause (disinflation) then a major surge again.

By failing and admitting ignorance, they basically caused and reinforced the status quo. In hindsight they may have been better off dumping their 3 trillion balance sheet at a faster rate or by publicly advising to Congress the reversal of tax cuts which impedes slowing the metrics.

Whatever the reason as of right now the market believes the fed failed as of yesterday. The only reason to be bearish was to think the fed would force a long overdue recession to shrink metrics and slow things off. Instead, they think a "soft landing" which is the opposite is attainable, which defies all common sense.

As far as I'm concerned the fed should cut rates to 0% again because ultimately they failed to realize the fight they are in and are wasting time burning interest for no reason. Either force a recession by any means possible or exit the fight and wait for a recurrence of inflation. They seem to have bailed.

So viva la bubble again, then look for another crash in future years.
Diesel profile picture
Just a month ago everyone was fearful and running for exits. Now everyone is buying nonstop if you were to believe the narrative.

In reality it was algos dumping last year and algos buying this year. Human investors can't move the markets when 95% of trading is done by algos.
a
@Diesel that’s why the buy dip idea seems to work. I’m not saying I do it but in theory every time a big company that has a huge dip seems to recently have a very large upswing afterwards.
E
Back in January, it was the rotation into growth stocks. I'm glad I've been riding that train up. Next stop, ATHs!
GR Value profile picture
@Eauz I do agree that the large tech names will go higher. I would be very skeptical about ATHs but at the least current earnings supports META at 210-220, Amazon might see speculation up to 125/130 and Apple will probably meander back to 160-170.

Either way as I said 4300 is baked it. Whether it spikes to 4500 again I have no idea. These two targets are August and March 2022 respectively. At the very least it's going to re-test August 4275 and likely exceed it.

There is zero utility to being bearish and there's 138 million shares short the SPY with a div payment in 44 days. I can't fathom us being lower in 44 days than now. Smaller companies are having more trouble. See Hanes for example. Apparently pricing power and cost cutting is more evident than ever and is in abundance in the majors/S&P co's.

The fed has utterly failed to reign in metrics. Let's be honest and say it. Metrics (margins, revenues, commerce) is not falling. That presents a major problem in 1-2 years as if metrics don't fall, debt/inequality bubbles grow and force way higher stagflation in 2024-2025.
E
@GR Value

If people weren't certain, the Fed sent a strong message to the markets that rate hikes are coming to an end soon enough. Maybe see a few more but they'll be 25-points, not 75 or 100.
GR Value profile picture
@Eauz They sent a strong message that they are not going to force a recession which defeats the purpose of their actions, thus rendering them impotent. It's okay because the fed's going to return in 2024 with this same problem now after a small pause. By then rates will be lowered to 2.5% and they'll have little credibility and a bigger problem.
ComputerBlue profile picture
Squeeze everything up...Meta back to normal...the bulls are back in town..inflation is a positive..pump it!
R
SPX rallying hard, day after day...
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