Golub Capital BDC Q4 2023 Earnings Preview

• Golub Capital BDC (NASDAQ:GBDC) is scheduled to announce Q4 earnings results on Monday, November 20th, after market close.
• The consensus EPS Estimate is $0.46 (+43.8% Y/Y) and the consensus Revenue Estimate is $157.5M (+31.6% Y/Y).
• Over the last 2 years, GBDC has beaten EPS estimates 100% of the time and has beaten revenue estimates 50% of the time.

More on Golub Capital BDC

• Golub Capital: Limited Upside But Strong Income
• Golub Capital BDC: 10.3% Covered Yield, But Limited Upside (Downgrade)
• Lower Fees Driving Higher Dividends: Golub Capital
• Golub Capital BDC estimated Q4 NII per share increases at least 11% from Q3
• Futu tops financial gainers this week, while Banco Itau Chile falls the most

Comments

[BDC Buzz]

For SD subscribers, please see the full GBDC update from earlier this morning at the following link:

seekingalpha.com/...

Here is a quick summary:

Earnings: Reported between its base and best-case projections due to a higher-than-expected portfolio yield (increased from 11.6% to 11.9%) combined with fewer share repurchases partially offset by slightly lower dividend and fee income as well as increased ‘Other G & A’. It should be noted that quarterly interest income has increased from $89 million to $162 million or 82%, increasing NII per share from $0.30 to almost $0.51 per share (excluding tax accrual) over the last 6 quarters.

Dividends: Maintained its regular quarterly distribution of $0.37 per share, as expected in the previous base case projections plus a supplemental dividend of $0.07 per share for Q3 2023 (paid in Q4 2023), as expected in the previous best-case projections (shown below). Similar to other BDCs, GBDC has adopted a variable portion of its dividend policy to pay out the excess earnings as portfolio yields remain higher.

Share Repurchases: Only 5,250 shares at a discount to the previous NAV per share.

NAV per Share: Increased by $0.19 or 1.3% (from $14.83 to $15.02) due to over-earning the dividends (regular and supplemental) by $0.09 per share plus net portfolio gains (including watch list investments) of $0.10 per share.

Credit Quality: Non-accruals decreased from 1.5% to 1.1% of the portfolio fair value (or 1.2% of debt investments) due to Chase Industries being added back to accrual partially offset by adding its small watch list investment in Rubio's Restaurants. However, Oliver Street Dermatology, Bayside, and Opening Day remain mostly fully valued implying likely temporary and could be added back to accrual. As mentioned in previous updates, Oliver Street (dba U.S. Dermatology Partners) agreed to pay $8.9 million to resolve allegations, which were self-reported, of potential violations of the False Claims Act.

This information will be discussed in the updated GBDC Deep Dive Projection report.