Watch Macy's $M, but invest in $KTP. Collect a 14% dividend while you wait for the world to realize retail is not dead.
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    David,

    Though $KTP is a unsecured debt, I still put it in the risky column due to ongoing $JCP issues.

    That being said, worst reasonable case is a bankruptcy in 2023 (there are no significant debt issue until 2023). By then, $KTP holders will have received 70% of the purchase price back in dividend. Even if JCP went bankrupt at that time, the bonds underlying KTP would only need to recover 16¢ on the dollar for breakeven.

    I think KTP a much better investment than JCP because the worst reasonable case is probably breakeven, yet there is still very significant upside if Penney does manage to turn themselves around.
    Bryan Rich frjôm Fjørbs: We will get the important first quarter GDP number tomorrow. We're already seeing plenty of evidence in first quarter corporate earnings that the big tax cuts have juiced economic activity. Not only do we see positive earnings surprises and record margins, but we're getting positive revenue surprises too. That means demand has not only picked up, but it has exceeded what companies and Wall Street have expected.

    Tomorrow will be another big piece of evidence that should prove to markets that the economy has kicked into another gear, and that an economic boom is underway. Remember, we looked earlier in the week at the sliding expectations for tomorrows growth data. Reuters poll of economists has pegged first-quarter GDP expectations at 2%.

    Remember, we're coming off of two quarters of more than 3% growth. And that was before the realization of big tax cuts, which not only has increased profitability for companies, wages for employees and savings for tax payers, but has fueled confidence in the economy and the outlook. And fuels economic activity.

    So, at a 2% consensus view on tomorrow's GDP number, we're setting up for a positive surprise on GDP. That should be a low bar to beat. And if we do get a beat on GDP, that should be very good for stocks.

    As we've gone through this price correction in stocks, we've been waiting for first quarter data (earnings and growth) to become the catalyst to resume the bull trend for stocks. And it has all lined up according to script. We've gotten big beats in the earnings data, as we suspected. We've retested the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 in the past couple of days, as suspected. And as we discussed yesterday, we have two big central bank meetings (the ECB this morning, and the Bank of Japan tonight) that should calm the concerns about the pace of move in the global interest rate market (i.e. as the ECB did this morning, the BOJ should telegraph an appetite for continued asset purchases, which continues to serve like an anchor on global interest rates).

    Bottom line: With a good GDP number tomorrow, we should be on the way to a big recovery for global stock markets, to reflect an economy growing back around trend growth, corporate earnings growing a 20% and a valuation on broader stocks that remains cheap relative to the low interest rate environment.
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    Cool! Thanks for posting that, very interesting stuff.
    bd1201
    21 Mar
    WTF happened to StockTalk... I take 1 week off and all hell breaks loose! So I guess I can't filter by people I follow/filter out the noise? Cool. I love that. Buy $JCP.
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    Nice trade setup on $JCP coming up. See it here...

    http://bit.ly/2FAMGQk
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    Here Is A Classic High Reward, Low Risk Trade On J C Penny... http://bit.ly/JCPLowRisk $JCP
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    JC Penney to close 8 stores in 2018. Here's where they are $JCP http://cnb.cx/2C0s4im
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    Relic of days gone bye.. Slowly dies
    I just bought a little $TNDM usually I would wait until December but 2.90 seems a lil cheap but we will see...busted IPO
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    Austinh
    29 Apr
    Pink sands. Excellent play on TNDM. Their chances of survival have been upgraded and the stock has been soaring with a trend of UP over the last 6 months of course. If I had holding in TNDM I would sell the number of shares needed to recover initially invested capital, and keep the other shares indefinitely, or long-term. That said, I think it's important to look at this "depressed asset" versus other companies like the Bon which is now bankrupt. The Bon-Ton stores had little to nothing in uniqueness, they had negative clouds hovering over all parts of their business. Compare this to TNDM, even though I know their businesses are completely different. TNDM has had increasing revenue over the past years, they just haven't been able to turn a profit YET. This means their products are increasing in demand. They also have UNIQUE products that are hard to compete with in the industry.  Lastly it appears one of the executives bought a ton of shares back around 3.00 a share. Those three things combined are what caught my attention to this, and obviously probably contributed to your success in this!  As you said, "separating the wheat from the chaff".
    Qniform
    8 Feb
    $TSLA $CHK $JCP the new ability to mute individuals may actually let rational discussion prevail among adults.
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    There ya go ! Only you b/s matters. JCP is a relic and needs to close imho and Tesla is xxxx. Shall I go on ?
    Premarket Top % Gainers: $JUNO 48%, $NCTY 12%, $CLLS $ASML $LABU $DCAR $RENN $JCP $LFC $SVXY $XIV $TNA $OILD-OLD $UAA $UGAZ $IBM $DWT $RIO $EGO
    Reply
    Nightly Business Report - January 4, 2018
    http://bit.ly/2EXt4C3

    $INTC $MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $AMD $M $JCP $SHLD $WBA $CVS $COST
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    On Watch J C Penney (NYSE:JCP) Hammers On Major Breakout Level... http://bit.ly/JCPWatch $JCP
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    wilkinson99
    13 Dec 2017
    Premarket Top % Gainers: $DPW 37%, $FNSR 23%, $ANY $CHFS $RSLS $CAPR $CLLS $CLSN $MARA $ARWR $WDC $MOXC $XNET $SRAX $STAY $JCP $UGAZ $BITA
    Reply
    jam270f
    27 Dec 2017
    Any thoughts you can share about CLSN?
    dickalou
    25 Dec 2017
    $JCP Would ant opinon'son the short and long oullook for JCP and NOG.
    Reply
    Elevated Implied Volatility $BBBY $MAT $NXPI $EDU $RHT $AMLP $JCP $FINL $CBI $MU $SGYP $GE $UNG #Optionstrading http://tinyurl.com/yb7b7pbn
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    Darren McCammon
    4 Dec 2017
    Trading at half par with about a 15% simple yield, $KTP doesn't need JC Penney $JCP to thrive in order to produce a great return, mere survival is good enough. https://seekingalpha.com/a/2gidk
    Reply
    TrInvestor
    3 Dec 2017
    How To Trade Retail This Holiday Season... Includes $XRT, $WMT, $SHLD, $JCP, $M and more... http://bit.ly/2ibHPa3
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    Price Moves vs Expected Moves $KR $COST $UNP $HD $AMZN $CMCSA $NFLX $WMT $M $BABA $TGT $JCP http://tinyurl.com/y7zbwhgq
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    Markus Teller
    15 Nov 2017
    Retail stocks looking very good. Picked up some $BBBY on great chart. Others like $JCP $M and $SHLD perking up.
    Reply
    SwingTrade Guru
    13 Nov 2017
    Retailers that had solid earnings last week like $JCP and $M ....giving back quite a bit of those gains. Investors just don't believe.
    Reply
    Eric Muathe
    11 Nov 2017
    [ Public ] U.S. Market Technical Analysis November 11 2017 $GE $BAC $T $JCP $AMD $F $ROKU $MU $SNAP $NVDA $M http://bit.ly/2AyTAzj
    Reply
    ModernWallStreet
    10 Nov 2017
    Closing Bell Happy Hour 11/10 Dow dips to end see-saw week $DJIA JC Penney jumps $JCP James honors Veterans Day [VIDEO] http://bit.ly/2jhaDlx
    Reply
    $LC SGYP $JCP stocks no watch https://goo.gl/ZHMWvM
    Reply
    First to invest
    10 Nov 2017
    J. C. Penney case study: $JCP
    J. C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP) jumped 17% on 11/10/17: This is why
    http://bit.ly/2Azmz6g
    Reply
    JennyRebekka
    10 Nov 2017
    $JCP surges on earnings beat. $M jumped big yesterday. Possible bottom? Makes sense into Xmas.
    Reply
    matuzi1028
    10 Nov 2017
    Will $JCP do the same
    matuzi1028
    10 Nov 2017
    Reply
    Markus Teller
    9 Nov 2017
    $JCP strong after $M surge on earnings beat. J C Penney reports tomorrow morning.
    Reply
    Colin Macleod
    2 Nov 2017
    Even at $2.70, $JCP stock is overvalued http://bit.ly/2z9M6Tj
    Reply
    abelle
    1 Nov 2017
    Grabbed $M yesterday. Loving the price action today. Earnings next week. $JCP discounted it, lowering bar nicely. Should pop back over $20.
    Reply
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    TraderJoeZ
    2 Nov 2017
    I'm not long anymore, Bezos is too scary for me, sticking to only the best of breed... target, Wal-Mart, etc. But I've traded M and there has got to be SIGNIFICANT value there. Especially all that high end, too notch real estate.
    Eric Muathe
    1 Nov 2017
    [Daily Study VIDEO] " The RSI 30.9 Bearish Trap " $JCP http://bit.ly/2yngFaU
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