Bryan Rich frjôm Fjørbs: We will get the important first quarter GDP number tomorrow. We're already seeing plenty of evidence in first quarter corporate earnings that the big tax cuts have juiced economic activity. Not only do we see positive earnings surprises and record margins, but we're getting positive revenue surprises too. That means demand has not only picked up, but it has exceeded what companies and Wall Street have expected.

    Tomorrow will be another big piece of evidence that should prove to markets that the economy has kicked into another gear, and that an economic boom is underway. Remember, we looked earlier in the week at the sliding expectations for tomorrows growth data. Reuters poll of economists has pegged first-quarter GDP expectations at 2%.

    Remember, we're coming off of two quarters of more than 3% growth. And that was before the realization of big tax cuts, which not only has increased profitability for companies, wages for employees and savings for tax payers, but has fueled confidence in the economy and the outlook. And fuels economic activity.

    So, at a 2% consensus view on tomorrow's GDP number, we're setting up for a positive surprise on GDP. That should be a low bar to beat. And if we do get a beat on GDP, that should be very good for stocks.

    As we've gone through this price correction in stocks, we've been waiting for first quarter data (earnings and growth) to become the catalyst to resume the bull trend for stocks. And it has all lined up according to script. We've gotten big beats in the earnings data, as we suspected. We've retested the 200-day moving average in the S&P 500 in the past couple of days, as suspected. And as we discussed yesterday, we have two big central bank meetings (the ECB this morning, and the Bank of Japan tonight) that should calm the concerns about the pace of move in the global interest rate market (i.e. as the ECB did this morning, the BOJ should telegraph an appetite for continued asset purchases, which continues to serve like an anchor on global interest rates).

    Bottom line: With a good GDP number tomorrow, we should be on the way to a big recovery for global stock markets, to reflect an economy growing back around trend growth, corporate earnings growing a 20% and a valuation on broader stocks that remains cheap relative to the low interest rate environment.
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    Cool! Thanks for posting that, very interesting stuff.
    $MAT This could really turn into something...
    https://seekingalpha.com/n/1zqqg
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    nice
    Thanks for the 1% on $MNK Pinky...I added to my $AIG with the cash...looking for the low beta bounce in the short term book
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    And I added to my poor $MAT position, drowning underwater
    This might be a fun exercise. Hope it helps someone. This is what I'm underwater on in my short term trade book. $AMC (almost above water) $CELG $FIT $MAT (nice little run today) $NPSNY (nice write up on them from Mark Bern CFA) $REED $SANM $SIG $SRC
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    excellent, good luck to you
    On a blood bath day, $S up 5% right now post-earnings.
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    Mattel $MAT up almost 9% as turnaround phase seems on track to deliver results. Here is why: https://seekingalpha.com/a/2gipi
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    I made $1,387.95 in short term trading profit in January. My most ever in a month. Psychologically I felt buoyed by the raging bull market around me. I doubt I'll continue chugging through the possibly more volatile year to come like that, but we shall see.
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    I think everyone needs to play to their strengths, I have a home office and my own business so that gives me time for research, and I enjoy analysis and facts and so forth....I'm married, no kids...I primarily have a large long term DGI portfolio...my short term portfolio is a smaller ratio of quick trades...doesn't take a lot of time, really...try to hone in on a name that has some sort of catalyst or rationale I'm comfortable with, hold the underlying, sell when I see 1% or more profit. I'm shooting more for consistency over time, and not necessarily ramping up too much. I would say after 5 years of this I would really ramp up. I am mentally conditioned to be comfortable with 30% + drawdown on some names, no options, hold underlying. Last year as you recall I rode $LB from 60s to 30s and ultimately sold for a profit (adding some along the way), among many others that I've whined about. So it is a long period of mental conditioning to be able to sleep well with drawdowns and so forth. My weakest position is now $MAT, I'm underwater (as of after hours) 35%. A choppy market will basically not allow me to take much profit, because equities will be weak in a volatile and red market. So it's hold, sell at 1% profit, and ride out downdrafts. So on my 9 current quick trade positions maybe I'll make no money next month. We shall see!:) I stopped posting all of my trades publicly as I'm a little more comfrtable with myself, in the past I posted for accountability, but I'll still post names I initiate every once and a while to give back especially as others have given me good ideas on ST.
    $HAS jumps 6% on reports of merger talks with $MAT. See why a Hasbro Mattel merger could produce big profits: https://buff.ly/2E53Cuo
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    Interesting move on $MAT
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    earnings on 2/1.High options vol.
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    ebs92
    29 Dec 2017
    While I'd like to think that most off us have had a real good yr trading based on how the market has performed, we all have had a trade or 2 we really regret (unless your name is 'Ocean' because it doesnt appear he has had a loser in 9 yrs). I bought $AXDX at $21, sold at $19 & almost immediatly watched the stock run to just under $30. Worst plays of the year?
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    TraderJoeZ
    29 Dec 2017
    Regarding my buy and hold stuff, a dip is irrelevant as I plan to hold them for a long time, a dip is just part of the story...Trading book, I am deeply underwater on $MAT and $CYH, and a bit underwater on $SRC and $CBI.
    Elevated Implied Volatility $BBBY $MAT $NXPI $EDU $RHT $AMLP $JCP $FINL $CBI $MU $SGYP $GE $UNG #Optionstrading http://tinyurl.com/yb7b7pbn
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    Swingstocktrader
    14 Dec 2017
    Stocks to watch today! $IGT, $TGH, $TDY, $CW, $CVGI, $COLM, $MAT, $MITL, $KO .
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    David Trainer
    17 Nov 2017
    Hasbro Mattel Merger Could Produce Big Profits https://buff.ly/2zR0iRy $HAS $MAT
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    $MAT Option Order Flow Sentiment is 80.9% Bullish
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    First to invest
    13 Nov 2017
    Mattel case study: $MAT
    Mattel, Inc. (MAT) jumped 22% on 11/13/17: This is why
    http://bit.ly/2AFeg8O
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    wilkinson99
    13 Nov 2017
    Top % Gainers: $TST 44%, $NVFY 36%, $ZX $BPSM $EKSO $MAT $CHKE $ONCS $NKTR $ASUR $RWLK $CAPR $APTO $ROKU $KNDI $SORL $SECO $GDS $NAK $CLSN
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    First to invest
    13 Nov 2017
    Stock Bullish short-term news signal: $MAT
    Mattel, Inc. (MAT): Mattel's stock up 22% premarket following report of Hasbro offer
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    wilkinson99
    13 Nov 2017
    Premarket Top % Gainers: $NVFY 63% $ARGS $NKTR $MAT $EKSO $OREX $MTBC $TRXC $CNIT $PRTY $GGP $CAPR $DFFN $QD $PSTI $HAS $DGAZ $JD $UVXY
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    wilkinson99
    13 Nov 2017
    $MAT surged over 20% in PreM on WSJ report $HAS has discussed an acquisition of Mattel. $HAS up nearly 3% on the news.
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    wilkinson99
    13 Nov 2017
    Premarket Top % Gainers: $EKSO 24%, $MAT 24%, $ONP $QD $STNG $JD $VHI $DGAZ $PPDF $AU $CYRN $MNKD $P $BZUN $WUBA $SOGO $TSN $RACE $NUGT
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    JennyRebekka
    10 Nov 2017
    $HAS makes a bid for $MAT. Mattel soars, up almost 30%. Should be a shot across the bow for all retailers. Consolidation will occur.
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    TraderJoeZ
    27 Oct 2017
    Pretty remarkable ride for $MAT. I guess it hit 12 pre market. Now almost 14
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    TraderJoeZ
    30 Oct 2017
    If Hasbro buys it for shares, I'll just take more Hasbro shares I guess
    Colin Macleod
    30 Oct 2017
    Gap Down Scan 10 27 2017 http://tinyurl.com/y8ag5rev $JCP $MAT $UGAZ $NBR $VXX $MRK $M $FCX $EXPE $CLF
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    camillezajac
    29 Oct 2017
    Who thinks $MAT makes a recovery?
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    dalatinIJR
    29 Oct 2017
    Great pipeline. Toys r us changed them .
    Colin Macleod
    27 Oct 2017
    New 52 Week Lows Scan 10 27 2017 http://tinyurl.com/y8kxecg9 $GE $JCP $MAT $UGAZ $RAD $NBR $CTL $WBA $KMI $TEV
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    Balaland
    28 Oct 2017
    I Have RAD @ 1.66 , I am Holding , and will buy more @ the 1.50 mark .. The " Shorts " have run out of room here ... Too Much Value and options are opening up , Gov. wanting Healthcare Cost cuts across the board to help balance out Costs , the CVS / Aetna Merger could be perfect partnership ... Expect more ... WBA knew this , except they got greedy buy trying to " Buy up The Competition " .. Fed Reg. made a Good call there ... RAD , I am holding .... Long also on CVS ..
    JennyRebekka
    27 Oct 2017
    While High Risk, This $MAT Buy Level Stands Out... http://tinyurl.com/y8wowdq8
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    trader57
    27 Oct 2017
    cash is trash today, everybody buying, looks like a new all-time high on SPX...what a surprise.
    TraderJoeZ
    26 Oct 2017
    Kelcy pulling his weight $ETE
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    Adam Jackson
    27 Oct 2017
    All the best with your purchase -- thought of you as I saw $MAT dropping after earnings. I remember you bought on the way down. Hope it turns out OK, or at least that your other positions are making up for it. Apart from the really big $AMZN competitors ($TGT, $WMT, $COST) retail seems in a bad state right now.
    abelle
    27 Oct 2017
    $MAT falls 20% after Q3 earnings miss. 2000 and 2009 lows hover around $10-$10.50. That has to be the key level now investors are watching.
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    DavidOWagner
    27 Oct 2017
    $EXPE, egap down thru the 200dma.. $CERN, egap down.. $PLPM, buyout.. $MAT, egap down.. $EFII, egap down
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