Investor/trader focused on discovering under the radar stocks and alpha generating ideas for my readers. My specialty is looking specifically for opportunities to achieve high % gains within a year's timeframe (ROTY- Runners of the Year). While these ideas generally come from the biotech and tech sectors, we are constantly scanning all areas of the market for potential ROTY candidates.
Last but not least, I highlight risk management and entry/exit strategies quite a bit, as I believe they represent areas that are often neglected but materially important for readers to understand and apply.
Full Disclosure: I am in a collaborative relationship with The Biotech Forum/Bret Jensen.
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If you’re on my profile page, you probably want to know a little more about me before signing up for the Mortgage REIT Forum. That seems reasonable.
Why is my name hidden?
I see things that are problems in the world and I work to correct them. I shine a light on places where companies don't want anyone looking. A few CEOs have reached out to me because they appreciated the thorough analysis; others have taken great offense because I go against the grain by calling out poor investments. Most analysts simply apply hold ratings or move on to find a different company to discuss. Executives of companies that are performing poorly on a fundamental level don’t want extra attention, so ignoring them is the safer course. Since I choose to highlight those problems, I keep my name off the site. Hiding my name makes it a little more difficult for those companies to try to silence me with nuisance suits.
Why did I pick mortgage REITs?
As I learned the sector, I began building more and more complicated models to estimate the fluctuations in value and performance across different mortgage REITs. I became even more interested as I found certain economic theories, such as efficient market prices, clearly did not apply. The lack of high quality public analysis meant investors were often poorly informed which set the stage for price failures. Economics would suggest that the rewards from this analysis must be the fair compensation for the talent that goes into finding them, but efficient markets still requires that the adjustment be immediate. It is not. Do you want an example? Look at the price movement in Resource Capital Corporation leading up to and following the earnings release (03/14/2017). There was a gap, even the morning of the earnings release, because the other professionals covering them needed time to update their expectations.
How did I build my system?
I was good at math and decent (certainly not great) at excel. I spent a great deal of time theorizing about how things worked and building models to represent that view. Then I would pull historical data from a company and see if my model was correct. If it was, great, I could expand the sample size. If it was wrong, I would look for the reason. I try to nail down as many variables as possible. The result of working long hours and constantly reassessing my beliefs as I tested them against the historical data was a deeper understanding of how the parts actually worked. This is why you may see me criticize analysts that put in a weak effort or try to cut large corners.
What is my view on risk?
There is a world of difference between the ways an investor can generate their returns. The traditional view is to see earning excess returns as compensation for taking on high levels of risk. I believe it is far better to focus on earning returns from catching market failures. These failures happen due to poor liquidity and investors (including analysts) working with incomplete information. I believe that by knowing the individual companies well, the investor can step in when the “risk” is heavily skewed in favor of “returns”. They should hunt for opportunities where there should be sufficient room for positive returns and very low probabilities of any major decline.
That theory guides my investment decision making. I do not try to generate higher returns, I try to generate more consistent returns by reducing the downwards risk. Occasionally that results in exceptionally high returns when something corrects, but it also means I am willing to pass on several decent opportunities because I want the risk/return profile skewed heavily in my favor.
It is also a reason you’ll see me emphasize preferred shares as an investment strategy. Some of these have very stable valuations and strong yields. At the same time, I will also look to sell the shares if I believe they are overvalued. This can be challenging for many buy and hold investors, but it is another way to take advantage of liquidity. I pay less attention to setting up those limit-sell orders on the preferred shares if I have a large cash position already, but if I see several things at attractive prices then I don’t want to stay in a share if I could reallocate the capital to something that is materially more attractive.
The subscription platform allows me to do a few things very well. It allows me to share the research I’m doing for my own investment decision making. It allows me to communicate rapidly with investors that are willing to pay for my best work. The editorial process takes time, but subscription articles can be posted as quickly as I can write them and upload the file. This is critical for updating investors to a liquidity event.
It also allows me to diversify income streams. With the growth in ad-blocking technologies and widespread use of mobile devices, I want more sources of revenue for my work. This is the only method I’ve found that works. Don’t take my word for it though, consider reviews from my subscribers. I’m still maintaining a perfect 5 star average rating.
Want Recent Examples?
Look at the tickers for RSO, ORC, and WMC. I was able to call a buy rating and two sell ratings. I would consider RSO and ORC homeruns (price movement over 15% within a month) and WMC a solid double (falling 7% to 8% to land within my suggested range for closing shorts). Disclosure: Long RSO.
My profile picture is an actual picture of me and 3 of my siblings from 1967. My youngest brother had not yet been born. I was 5, my brother was 4 and my sisters were 3 and 2.
I have been a software engineer developing applications in various fields for over 30 years. I began investing in mutual funds for my 401(k) back in 1988.I started investing outside of my retirement account a little over 17 years ago. I used to follow a value oriented strategy, but after I saw how that worked less well than I liked during the financial crisis, I began to switch over to a more income based approach.
I had always thought that dividends were important but didn't have a systematic way to evaluate stocks that paid them until I found SA and DGI. Starting around 2010, I have switched my portfolio to a DGI strategy.
One of my most profitable picks turned out to be Freddie Mac, which I originally chose because I liked the dividend and because I once worked there. When it first ran into problems I increased my holdings because it still looked like a good value to me. I eventually managed to buy several thousand shares at a cost of $0.50 (I knew that was a good value) and eventually exited the stock at a price that was $5 a share above my average share cost.
My biggest miss was when I sold out my 100 shares of Apple shortly after Steve Jobs returned but before he had done much to improve the companies outlook. My holdings include : CCP CMI DLR EMR LTC GIS JNJ KMI KO MCD MO MSFT O OHI PG T VGR WEC XOM
I manage investment portfolios for institutions and individuals (ranging from safe retirement income to aggressive long-term capital appreciation). If you are a "do-it-yourself" investor, I share model portfolios and investment ideas within The Value & Income Forum. You can learn more about me here. Please feel free to contact me any time. Thank you.
Engineer by trade and passion. Have worked internationally for over three decades, running my own business. I hold a PhD in engineering, but honestly believe that the school of hard knocks has taught me lessons that are more applicable to my writing here on Seeking Alpha. My investing interests mostly concern the resource sector, with a focus on precious metals, base metals and energy stocks of all sizes. My research explicitly includes small- and micro-cap juniors, and I try to manage the associated risks in a methodical manner.
Some of my work is available free of charge on Seeking Alpha. If you have come to like these offerings, then please consider joining my Marketplace service called Itinerant Musings where I usually present my best ideas and provide personalized interaction.
Aside from free articles available to the general public, additional early-access, value-added ideas and deep-dive articles are offered to paid subscribers on my premium SA platform, "Retirement: One Dividend At A Time" . This exclusive RODAT Portfolio has performed even better than my popular FTG Portfolio, with higher dividend income growth and greater capital appreciation.
If you are interested in any of my digital utility solutions to add to your investing tool box to improve your investment outcomes, please visit my site
You'll find elegant applications that make it simple for you to track your portfolio in real time, make a watch list to follow in real time, track your dividend income and growth, and other applications. These applications will allow you to set alerts at prices you choose in order to obtain the yield and income that you want. They function as real time trade assistants and will improve your investment performance. You can even mirror the successful FTG Portfolio with "My FTG Mirror Calculator", and subscribers can mirror the premium subscriber portfolio with "MY RODAT Mirror Calculator" if they wish to emulate the out performance we've achieved in capital and income growth.
I am a retired clinical psychologist, and administrator and owner of a rehabilitation clinic we founded 40 years ago. For over 55 years I have managed several portfolios composed of investments accumulated over our professional careers. Since the financial crisis of 2008, I have employed specialized, customized dividend growth strategies aimed at enhancing and growing a dividend income stream.
Since December 24, 2014, I have demonstrated on Seeking Alpha the ongoing construction and portfolio management of the Fill-The-Gap Portfolio aimed at highlighting strategies investors may utilize to close the gap between an average Social Security benefit and the much greater costs faced in retirement.
This portfolio has outperformed all of the broad market indexes by a very wide margin, growing dividend income and total portfolio value consistently while the broader indexes struggle in negative territory all year.
Let me show you how to build and grow your portfolio and dividend income, step by step, towards a comfortable and secure retirement.
Ian worked for Kerrisdale, a New York activist hedge fund, for three years, before moving to Latin America to pursue entrepreneurial opportunities there. His Ian's Insider Corner service provides live chat, model portfolios, full access and updates to his "IMF" portfolio, along with a weekly newsletter which expands on these topics.
Ian is also an associate analyst for Value Investor's Edge. VIE is a top-ranked deep value research service featuring exclusive work from J Mintzmyer, James Catlin, and Ian Bezek.
I am a dividend investor and look for undervalued investments in the stock market. I identify misunderstood and undervalued equity investments and hold those securities until their price approximates my estimate of intrinsic value. I am a long-term investor only.
I am building a $100,000 high-yield income portfolio. I am running this portfolio as an experiment to see if long-term sustainable income can be generated from a diversified pool of high-risk, high-yield securities. I am willing to accept high risk in order to meet my performance goals.
I suspect that most preferred income investors are conservative by nature. I am. I don't believe I have any special talent or gift for trading, a crystal ball, or any access to insider information. Consequently, I have little expectation of prospering by consistently buying low and selling high. In fact, prior to becoming a fixed income investor, my trading history boasted the opposite, buying high and selling low. Tis sad but true, over those years, I've given more to the market than I've taken from it. However, that's yesterday's news, and of no real interest. Of importance is that I'm patient, analytical, organized, pretty good at math, and always looking for that angle, strategy, or edge to help guarantee my market success. The Art & Science of Preferred Dividend Investing details my history, education and growth as a preferred investor and the lessons I learned along the way. I want to share that knowledge by introducing you to this effective, profitable, and safe way to invest in preferred equities.