Eclectic background. Natural cynic. Ultra conservative. The 3 Ps. Expected outcome. Possibility x Probability . Expected return. Possibility x Probability x Payday. The 3 P's are difficult to quantify. Failing to attempt quantification is more dangerous than being somewhat wrong. A great guess comes from information and aptitude, a perfect prediction is luck. There are always outliers. Brutal facts, minimize the Ifs n Buts.