I was an amateur investor who had been actively trading on margin for over 4 years but after passing the Series 65 I set up a state level Registered Investment Adviser business.
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If you’re on my profile page, you probably want to know a little more about me before signing up for the Mortgage REIT Forum. That seems reasonable.
Why is my name hidden?
I see things that are problems in the world and I work to correct them. I shine a light on places where companies don't want anyone looking. A few CEOs have reached out to me because they appreciated the thorough analysis; others have taken great offense because I go against the grain by calling out poor investments. Most analysts simply apply hold ratings or move on to find a different company to discuss. Executives of companies that are performing poorly on a fundamental level don’t want extra attention, so ignoring them is the safer course. Since I choose to highlight those problems, I keep my name off the site. Hiding my name makes it a little more difficult for those companies to try to silence me with nuisance suits.
Why did I pick mortgage REITs?
As I learned the sector, I began building more and more complicated models to estimate the fluctuations in value and performance across different mortgage REITs. I became even more interested as I found certain economic theories, such as efficient market prices, clearly did not apply. The lack of high quality public analysis meant investors were often poorly informed which set the stage for price failures. Economics would suggest that the rewards from this analysis must be the fair compensation for the talent that goes into finding them, but efficient markets still requires that the adjustment be immediate. It is not. Do you want an example? Look at the price movement in Resource Capital Corporation leading up to and following the earnings release (03/14/2017). There was a gap, even the morning of the earnings release, because the other professionals covering them needed time to update their expectations.
How did I build my system?
I was good at math and decent (certainly not great) at excel. I spent a great deal of time theorizing about how things worked and building models to represent that view. Then I would pull historical data from a company and see if my model was correct. If it was, great, I could expand the sample size. If it was wrong, I would look for the reason. I try to nail down as many variables as possible. The result of working long hours and constantly reassessing my beliefs as I tested them against the historical data was a deeper understanding of how the parts actually worked. This is why you may see me criticize analysts that put in a weak effort or try to cut large corners.
What is my view on risk?
There is a world of difference between the ways an investor can generate their returns. The traditional view is to see earning excess returns as compensation for taking on high levels of risk. I believe it is far better to focus on earning returns from catching market failures. These failures happen due to poor liquidity and investors (including analysts) working with incomplete information. I believe that by knowing the individual companies well, the investor can step in when the “risk” is heavily skewed in favor of “returns”. They should hunt for opportunities where there should be sufficient room for positive returns and very low probabilities of any major decline.
That theory guides my investment decision making. I do not try to generate higher returns, I try to generate more consistent returns by reducing the downwards risk. Occasionally that results in exceptionally high returns when something corrects, but it also means I am willing to pass on several decent opportunities because I want the risk/return profile skewed heavily in my favor.
It is also a reason you’ll see me emphasize preferred shares as an investment strategy. Some of these have very stable valuations and strong yields. At the same time, I will also look to sell the shares if I believe they are overvalued. This can be challenging for many buy and hold investors, but it is another way to take advantage of liquidity. I pay less attention to setting up those limit-sell orders on the preferred shares if I have a large cash position already, but if I see several things at attractive prices then I don’t want to stay in a share if I could reallocate the capital to something that is materially more attractive.
The subscription platform allows me to do a few things very well. It allows me to share the research I’m doing for my own investment decision making. It allows me to communicate rapidly with investors that are willing to pay for my best work. The editorial process takes time, but subscription articles can be posted as quickly as I can write them and upload the file. This is critical for updating investors to a liquidity event.
It also allows me to diversify income streams. With the growth in ad-blocking technologies and widespread use of mobile devices, I want more sources of revenue for my work. This is the only method I’ve found that works. Don’t take my word for it though, consider reviews from my subscribers. I’m still maintaining a perfect 5 star average rating.
Want Recent Examples?
Look at the tickers for RSO, ORC, and WMC. I was able to call a buy rating and two sell ratings. I would consider RSO and ORC homeruns (price movement over 15% within a month) and WMC a solid double (falling 7% to 8% to land within my suggested range for closing shorts). Disclosure: Long RSO.
I am a 29 year old who has been passionate about investing since my dad introduced me to this way of life at the age of 12. As I grew as an adolescent I used my life savings to try to earn my fortune in the thrilling world of high finance. Along the way I've made and lost several small fortunes through option speculation and aggressive growth investing and learned valuable lessons that I want to share. I am passionate about long-term, buy and hold, dividend focused investing. History teaches us that this approach is the most powerful means available to build long-term wealth and income. My goal is to teach my readers how to find, research and follow the kind of companies that will make their financial dreams come true.
I now write for The Motley Fool and you can follow my work here:
I'm A 31 Year-Old Stay-At Home Mom, Who Enjoys Writing About And Establishing Income-Driven Strategies Within Numerous Sectors. My Husband And I Are Happily Married (January 2015) And I Currently Reside In The Greater New York Area.
Machine learning and AI to for smarter investing. Think "FBI background check" for stocks, ETFs & mutual funds.
Our forensic accounting technology analyzes thousands of documents to ensure you get the truth about profits and valuation. We are 100% independent and objective.
Follow me on Twitter: @NewConstructs. David is CEO of New Constructs (www.newconstructs.com). David is a distinguished investment strategist and corporate finance expert. He was a 5-yr member of FASB's Investors Advisory Committee. He is author of the Chapter “Modern Tools for Valuation” in The Valuation Handbook (Wiley Finance 2010).
I am a buy-side analyst for various private wealth managers, institutional and accredited investors. My goal for articles on Seeking Alpha is to bring exposure to business development companies (BDCs) that finance small to medium sized businesses, typically overlooked by banks. BDCs are an instrument for investors to earn healthy dividends by avoiding double taxation at the corporate level and allowing income to flow directly to shareholders. Please see website link below for more information.
I am a start-up entrepreneur whose primary interest is in internet and technology stocks. I tend to hold positions in only a few stocks and hold on to them for some time. As Warren Buffet said "I am a better investor because I am a businessman and I am a better businessman because I am an investor"
Helix Investment Research was founded in July 2011 by Ivan Deryugin, and focuses on leveraging secular global trends, across a variety of sectors, in order to generate long-term outperformance.
Our team is based in Chicago and New York with experience at Google, The Wall Street Journal, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Tribune and WallStreetView.
YCharts visualizes massive amounts of market information to identify companies with long-term competitive advantages and appropriate valuations. Fundamentals matter and we believe it’s important to understand how companies perform over time and relative to their peers. We cover over 20,000 U.S. & Canadian companies and manage over 40 million investor trends in real-time.
I am usually an intermediate-term swing trader with a particular interest in financial and technology stocks. I monitor the fundamental financial position, performance, and trends to determine if there is a possible trade. I follow the seasonality and annual cyclical performance of companies, as applicable, for position set-ups. I also utilize technical analysis with my own proprietary signals I developed for intermediate and long term trends.
I have analyzed and traded stocks for many years and noticed long ago I did better if I followed my ideas and ignored the chatter and buzz. Someone will always have a reason to buy, sell, or hold a stock, no matter what the circumstances. Their motives may not be in your best interests. Patience and detachment are critical so as to not force a trade. Don't go to the trade, the trade will come to you, if you are diligent. It doesn't bother me to pass on a trade. Let it go - greed, fear, ego, and beliefs will distort your perception.
Therefore, the less noise the better for me. Accordingly, while I analyze and review macroeconomic data and the specifics of company financial statements, I ignore business media histrionics and hype. Media first and foremost is selling advertising and need to compel you to read or watch. I don't watch TV and especially don't watch business channels. I do read some business media, but mostly ignore their company coverage. The quarterly earnings reports and deciphering any other corporate press releases tell the tale.
I have 40+ years experience in banking, insurance, economics, finance, investments, and public accounting, including both sole owner and a partner of financial institution auditing firms, financial institution auditor, vice-president of operations of a property & casualty insurance company, vice-president of finance of a life insurance company, public accounting audit manager, and public accounting SEC quality control manager.
Saibus Research is an independent research firm that specializes in fundamental deep value research in public securities for fund managers and institutional investors. We don't sell reports, we sell expertise.
For real-time updates: @saibusresearch
With hedge fund manager, CNBC regular and long-time veteran of the Russian markets Tim Seymour at the helm, Emerging Money (http://www.emergingmoney.com) provides education, trading analysis and comprehensive views of emerging markets around the world. As economies in the BRIC group and beyond become the growth engines of global wealth creation, Emerging Money provides insights and tools for investors to trade successfully in these markets via individual ADRs, foreign-traded stocks, currencies and ETFs.
My name is Phil Mause. I am a Senior Advisor with the Pacific Economics Group, focusing on energy, regulatory and valuation issues. I retired from 40 years of law practice earlier this year. I am a yield oriented investor and in the last two years, I have done reasonably well in junk bonds, BDCs, mortgage REITS, and dividend paying blue chip stocks. As an avocation, I dabble in stand up comedy.
Christian Magoon is the founder of YieldShares, the income focused ETF Sponsor behind the YieldShares High Income ETF (YYY). He is also chief executive of Magoon Capital, a firm which provides strategic advice on ETF product development.
Christian Magoon is an ETF insider, having launched over 50 ETFs in the United States to date. A widely recognized thought leader on finance and market issues, Christian is a Wall Street Journal Expert panelist, has been called an "ETF Jedi" by Ignites and was named "One of Five People To Watch" in the ETF industry by Institutional Investor.
Prior to forming Magoon Capital in 2010, Christian was President of Claymore Securities (now Guggenheim Investments), where he built one of the fastest growing ETF businesses in the country, gathering more than $3 billion in AUM in three years. He launched a variety of ETFs, introducing many “firsts” to the U.S. market including the first Frontier Markets, Multi Asset Income, Timber, BRIC and suite of China focused ETFs.
Active in social media, @ChristianMagoon was named to the Wall Street Journal's 20 member list of "Best Tweets For Your Money," and dubbed a "Top 5 ETF Expert To Follow On Twitter," by ETF Database.
George is currently a Managing Director at Lion Fund. He has written for Seeking Alpha, The Motley Fool, Investing.com, Psychology Today and his works have been featured on Seeking Alpha's Wall Street Breakfast, MSN Money, Yahoo! Finance, AOL DailyFinance, CNNMoney, CNBC, MarketWatch, TheStreet, Insider Monkey, NASDAQ.com, eWallStreeter, and Finanzen100, among others. George is also a TEDx speaker and a Stanley A. Rabin Scholar at Columbia University.
In his spare time, George plays tennis, argues with baristas over the legitimacy of the Oxford comma, and reads Dan Loeb's 13Ds for fun.
Full Time Micro Cap Investor. Founder of MicroCapClub.com
Founded in 2011, MicroCapClub is an exclusive forum for experienced microcap investors focused on microcap companies (sub $300m market cap). MicroCapClub was created to be a platform for experienced microcap investors to share and discuss stock ideas. MicroCapClub’s mission is to foster the highest quality microcap investor Community, produce Educational content for investors, and promote better Leadership in the microcap arena.
Richard is the managing principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut, with clients across the country. . QVM manages portfolios uniquely designed for each client on a flat fee basis through the client’s own accounts at Schwab; and provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors on an hourly fee basis. The investment approach is based on value, asset allocation, expense control, risk management, customizing portfolios to each client's specific circumstances, and regular communication about strategy and absolute and benchmark performance. Richard's extensive experience includes serving having served as a Board Director of Phoenix Investment Counsel, a U.S. pension and mutual funds manager, now Virtus Investment Partners (New York Stock Exchange: VRTS http://www.virtus.com); as Managing Director of Phoenix American Investment in London; and as a Board Director Aberdeen Asset Management PLC in Aberdeen Scotland (London Stock Exchange: ADN http://www.aberdeen-asset.com). He has been a Trustee of a $500 million pension fund, and was a charter investor and member of the Board of Directors of several internet companies, including Lending Tree (NASDAQ: TREE http://www.lendingtree.com) prior to its IPO. He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College. QVM Group LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor. Visit the QVM Group website. (http://www.qvmgroup.com). Follow him on Twitter: @QVMinvest
I am a value/activist investor dedicated to the following ideals: (1) Focus on high relative strength, (2) Buy low, sell high aka "buy the dip, sell the rip" (3) Short high, cover low, (4) Go against the crowd, (5) It's all about the rules and discipline- hold them dear (6) Analyze the balance sheet-seek low debt,high cash and hidden value scenarios (7) Cut your losses short, let your gains run, (7) Don’t get emotional, (8) Follow the insiders- buy if they are buying, sell if they are selling (9) Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.(10) Don't argue with the market unless you detect an inefficiency present-it is smarter than you are. In summary, some of these ideas might be construed as rather trite and overused, but consistent use of them pays off in the long run.
Mr. Krieger specializes in the food sector and is the originator of the "Basic Food Fund" index and the "Dirt Cheap Value Portfolio".Why the food sector? "everybody has to eat'!
He graduated from the University of Southern California with a BS in Business Administration with an emphasis in Corporate Finance. Mark resides in Cowan Heights, California with his wife, son and pug and is interested in mountain biking, gardening and reading.
I'm an old school engineer, been active in the market since the 1980s. I have nothing to sell here, just looking to get feedback on ideas... I analyze companies using same techniques I learned for other engineering systems - look at the best tradeoffs of performance, reliability, and costs for a given environment. I do have a bias that a dollar put into my pocket is worth a lot more than than a dollar sitting in someone else's spread sheet.
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions. I've been trading professionally for about 20 years.
I have a Marketplace service here on Seeking Alpha called Idea Generator that's focused on real-time actionable ideas based on valuation and catalysts. The Idea Generator portfolio has beat the S&P 500 by more than 48% in 28 months.
I also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries thousands of educational articles on finance and markets (in Portuguese).
I trade futures, stocks from the long and short side, forex and options. I trade both discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader, Quantshare and others). I can be reached at paulo.santosATthinkfn.com or followed on Twitter at twitter.com/ThinkFinance999
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day: http://seekingalpha.com/account/email_preferences
David P. Goldman was global head of debt research for Banc of America Securities and earlier global head of credit strategy at Credit Suisse. He was until July 2008 the strategist for a credit hedge fund, Asteri Capital, one of the few credit funds to show a profit between July 2007 and July 2008. He is now Associate Editor of First Things (www.firstthings.com) and a columnist (under the byline "Spengler") for Asia Times Online.
Andrew Corn is the Chief Investment Officer of E5A Funds LLC, a firm specializing in alternative investments. E5A is best known for its global investment process.
Until June 2010 Corn was Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer - Equities of the Beacon Trust Company. Mr. Corn ran the firm’s equity investment team managing three long only strategies and in 2008/9 a long/short fund. He also served on the firm’s senior management team.
Mr. Corn was also responsible for Beacon Indexes which publishes three indexes tracked by ETFs.
Prior to joining Beacon Trust Company, Corn was the founder and Chief Investment Officer of Clear Asset Management. He developed the vision and premise of the firm's investment process, multifactor models, and trading strategy. Corn was named Emerging Manager of the Year for Equities in 2007 by Opal Financial Group and “Portfolio Manager of the Month” of March 2007 in Investor’s Business Daily. During this time he also founded Clear Indexes LLC which developed custom indexes for packaged products such as ETFs and custom institutional benchmarks. He has participated in bell ringing for seven ETFs. Mr. Corn also established a popular index and portfolio design contest with 14 leading Universities. Both firms were sold to Beacon Trust in 2008.
Until May 2004, he was SVP of TheStreet.com and SVP of its institutional broker-dealer subsidiary, Independent Research Group.
Previously, he was Executive Vice President of Citigate, Inc. From 1989 until 2000, he was the Chief Executive Officer of Admaster Communications, a specialty financial communications firm, and MasterApproach, an investment industry focused consultant and software developer. Both were sold in 2001 to Citigate. As CEO, Mr. Corn consulted on product development and marketing for institutional money managers, mutual funds, hedge funds, investment banks, pension consultants, and brokerages. He also wrote and/or designed and produced hundreds of analyst presentations, IPO road shows and M&A announcements. Through this process he worked with CEOs, CFOs, research analysts, venture capitalists, investment bankers across sectors and market caps and gained his initial perspective on analyzing public companies. He also co-founded and sold a magazine publishing firm as well as a custom applications and web solutions firm.
Mr. Corn is a former board member of Junior Achievement of NY and Jacobs Pillow Dance Festival. He is a frequent speaker at conferences and universities and guest in the financial media.
The views expressed on this blog are his own and not reviewed by any outside entity.
Visit his blog: at http://e5afundsllc.wordpress.com
Rocco Pendola is an associate editor at Seeking Alpha focusing on technology and the sectors it overlaps with.
In addition to technology, I am interested in dividend growth and income investing.
I make references to music I'm obsessed with (e.g., Old 97s, Elliott Smith, Bruce Springsteen) in my writing. If you notice any of these references, it makes me happy.
Keith wrote Minyanville.com’s Housing Market Report and just launched his Capital Preservation Real Estate Report on June 1.
The focus of Keith’s writings and presentations has been to prepare people for the continued housing market decline that he sees as almost inevitable. His new report broadens his reach to include commercial real estate, mortgage-backed securities and REITs.
Keith’s in-depth housing market articles have been posted regularly on major websites such as BUSINESS INSIDER, REAL CLEAR MARKETS, MINYANVILLE and MARKETWATCH.
Keith has been interviewed extensively including a recent appearance on Yahoo Finance’s “Daily Ticker” show which was seen by more than 100,000 viewers. He was recently interviewed on Bloomberg TV’s “Bottom Line.” He has also appeared twice on the Wall Street Journal’s syndicated Michael Castner radio show. Keith’s interviews can be seen at www.keithjurow.com.
He gave major presentations in Manhattan in 2012 before organizations such as the Financial Policy Council, the Rotary Club of New York, and a Family Office conference for high net worth investors.
Keith is a graduate of Cornell University and received both an M.A. and a PhD from the Graduate Faculty of the New School in Manhattan.
Yigal Grayeff (Twitter: @yigalgrayeff) is the manger of a music school in Jerusalem called Lenagen Bekef. Between 2011 and 2014, he was a senior news editor at Seeking Alpha, which he joined after working at venture capital firm Gemini Israel Funds for five years. Prior to Gemini, Yigal was a reporter for the Jerusalem Post - covering business and economics and later on crime - and an editor at Dow Jones Newswires in London.
Whitney Tilson is the founder and Managing Partner of Kase Capital Management, which manages three value-oriented hedge funds. Mr. Tilson is also the co-founder of Value Investor Insight, an investment newsletter.
Mr. Tilson has co-authored two books, The Art of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market (2013) and More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times (2009), was one of the authors of Poor Charlie’s Almanack, the definitive book on Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, and has written for Forbes, the Financial Times, Kiplinger’s, the Motley Fool and TheStreet.com. He was featured in two 60 Minutes segments in December 2008 about the housing crisis (which won an Emmy) and in March 2015 about Lumber Liquidators. He served for two years on the Board of Directors of Cutter & Buck, which designs and markets upscale sportswear, until the company was sold in early 2007.
Mr. Tilson received an MBA with High Distinction from the Harvard Business School, where he was elected a Baker Scholar (top 5% of class), and graduated magna cum laude from Harvard College, with a bachelor’s degree in Government.
Mr. Tilson spent much of his childhood in Tanzania and Nicaragua (his parents are both educators, were among the first couples to meet and marry in the Peace Corps, and have retired in Kenya). Consequently, Mr. Tilson is involved with a number of charities focused on education reform and Africa. For his philanthropic work, he received the 2008 John C. Whitehead Social Enterprise Award from the Harvard Business School Club of Greater New York. He is a member and past Chairman of the Manhattan chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization. Mr. Tilson lives in Manhattan with his wife and three teenage daughters.