I am a reformed MD, now with a finance MBA, and studying valuation independently by developing some conservative DCF models using FCF per share. You can make any investment work if you set a low enough discount rate.... that's one of the discouraging things about doing anything other than passive index investing. Forecasting isn't too accurate, those darn standard deviations are too wide. Margins of safety and alpha are rare and hard to separate from the noise.
So I say to my Congressman, “Where’s my stimulus?”
“About five trillion dollars…” he said, after clearing his throat and fiddling with his pipe. “…will bail out all the key factors in our civilization that really count for our jobs and wealth and health. The man who sells your mortgage, the people who make your car, the insurers who insure your car and your house, foreign countries who we depend on for our Ouzo, and so on. This stimulus will help all of them, and everyone feels much richer and can resume spending. Then, loans will be repaid, or the taxpayer will pay it all back.”
“Well, if it fixes things so the crisis cannot ever happen again…”
“Just leave it to yours truly, your hard working legislator. The crisis will pass, almost certainly before the end of my term. Even if more bailout is needed, we will simply provide it for the common good. Stimulating, don’t you agree?”
I suppose…just like blasting away at your foot with a 12 gauge automatic shotgun until only a bloody stump remains.
I went through an apprenticeship While in high school and became a carpenter after graduating high school in 1976. Recession struck in the late seventies lasting into the the eighties. I joined the U.S. Army and retired after twenty years. I am currently a indipendant contractor providing technical services for perimeter security to military bases in the south west.
Oscar has been passionate about investing since he was 9. He loves talking business, stocks and investment ideas with everyone. He sees the investment process as a life-long learning opportunity in a game setting.
Please subscribe to my mailing list to stay up to date and connected: http://eepurl.com/b0VEQ5