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I was born in India in October 1957 during the waning years of British colonialism. I returned home to native Scotland as a infant and grew up in the small country town of Kirriemuir, famous as the birth place of J. M. Barrie, the creator of Peter Pan, and of Bon Scott, lead singer with rock band AC DC.
In 1979 I graduated from The University of Aberdeen with a BSc degree in geology and went on to defend a PhD in 1984 that examined Crustal Evolution in Western Norway based on radiogenic isotope data. In 1983, my wife and I moved to Norway where we both worked at The University of Oslo. In this period I worked on developing methods that employed natural radiogenic isotope ratio variations in rocks and fluids to help characterise the layering and connectivity of oil and gas reservoirs and have since published a number of papers on this topic.
In 1993 we returned home to Aberdeen with a one year old infant and I would establish an isotope geochemistry analysis and consulting business that would eventually employ 12 people and operate 3 mass spectrometers. Business boomed during the early years with a spate of large new field developments that would fuel the second peak in UK oil production in 1999. But a glut of oil on the market would see the oil price fall below $10 / barrel in 1998 that would lead to one of the periodic busts in the industry which my company survived but would never fully recover from.
On September 11th 2001 I decided to throw in the towel and sold the analytical part of the business but continued doing consultancy work for the oil industry until 2005. In 2003 I fortuitously invested some money in a range of small oil stocks and had become intrigued to understand why their value and the price of oil seemed to be set on an ever upwards trajectory. I had for a long while been fascinated by the concept of peak oil and read a few books including Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s Over, Matt Simmons’ Twilight in The Dessert and Daniel Yergin’s The Prize. And then one day in 2006 I stumbled upon The Oil Drum blog without realising at the time that this enterprise would consume the greater part of my time for the following 7 years.
At that time The Oil Drum provided unique insight to the pandoras box of the energy world that society was struggling to understand. Escalating oil and energy prices meant spreading energy poverty through the poorer parts of OECD society and throughout the developing world. Politicians and policy makers were caught off balance and did not know how to respond. Not much has changed.
I have two sons, both recently graduated from university, a wife who works for the oil industry and two dogs who take me for a long walk every afternoon. I am under a certain amount of pressure to contribute to family income and so undertake occasional consulting jobs for the energy industries. But my real passion is to try and understand the various components of how The Earth energy system works and to educate politicians, policy makers and the public on Energy Matters so that better choices can be made. I hope the articles I write for Energy Matters may one day build into a book and that I may somehow make a living from data analysis, writing and public speaking.
In 2009 I was appointed as Honorary Research Fellow at The University of Aberdeen where I teach occasional courses.
Being an Austrian petroleum engineering student, I have always had a strong fascination for the stock market. I bought my first stocks about 5 years ago. My main interests are European stocks, but I am continuously broadening my horizon.
Nathan's interest in the stock market arose from broader interests in theories of reification. Seeking Alpha has enabled him to challenge his own assumptions and expand his worldview.
Nathan is pursuing a career path in applied sciences.
Nathan was listed in "The Best Performers of Seeking Alpha: Vol 1" (2014). While other internal and external studies have compared the performance of Seeking Alpha writers, this computerized ranking was uniquely comprehensive in mining the text of articles for specific predictions, and placed Nathan within the top percentile of Seeking Alpha Contributors for his category.
Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the professional accounting industry, which has been adopted by nearly all publicly traded U.S. companies. We feel that our Main Street price result is what each company would need to trade at in order to be attractive to a businessperson on Main Street looking to buy at a bargain.
Since the only constant in the universe is change, the results for each company fluctuate by varying degrees. No company is an island unto itself, but each operates in a world of constant change and at times in areas where Chaos is the norm. By analyzing a company’s Main Street operations over time, Friedrich is able to give the potential investor a decade long analysis (opinion) as well as offering a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) analysis (opinion), as well. Thus our readers will not only get as close to a real time view of operations on Main Street as is possible, but then can measure the consistency of the company’s operations over time to determine if s/he should invest or not.
Through our Friedrich algorithm we can analyze ten years of Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement data for each company all at once and generate one final result in seconds. Friedrich was designed to be ultra-conservative and thus will cut zero slack to any company under analysis and will do so with zero emotion. Companies must be exceptional in order to get an attractive Main Street valuation and the ideal investments according to our backtesting are the ones that have been consistent over time.
By being so ultra conservative Friedrich is designed to identify bargains that Wall Street investors may have overlooked. Companies shares may trade on the stock market but the companies themselves operate on Main Street, so Friedrich is designed to generate a Main Street price per share first and only then does he go to Wall Street and see the price for which Benjamin Graham’s “Mr. Market” is offering the shares.
Power Hedge is an independent stock research and analysis firm with a passion for macro- and microeconomic analysis. Power Hedge focuses our research primarily on dividend-paying, international companies of all sizes with sustainable competitive advantages. Power Hedge is neither a permabear nor a permabull. However, we believe that, given the current structural problems in the United States, the best investment opportunities may lie elsewhere in the world. The firm's strategy is primarily buy and hold, but will stray from that strategy on occasion. Our ideal holding period is forever, however we realize that both internal and external forces can impact an investment. For this reason, we believe that it is vital to keep a close eye on all of your investments. We do not believe in changing an investment based on short-term market swings.
Traditionally, we have not always responded to comments but in order to improve the quality of our research, comments will be reviewed and we will respond to issues regarding errors or omissions. This does not include our premium service, "Renewable Energy Profits," which is available from the Seeking Alpha Marketplace. This service does include detailed discussions with our team both on the reports themselves and in a private forum.
William Gamble has been active in the international business as a consultant, lawyer, investor, and corporate counsel for the past thirty years. He has written three books. The most recent is Investing in Emerging Markets: Rules of the Game (2012). He has also written Investing in China (2002) and Freedom: America's Competitive Advantage in the Global Market (2007). Besides his books he writes weekly columns for Alrroya, the only financial newspaper in Dubai and MoneyLife, a financial publication in Mumbai.
He holds two law degrees, an executive MBA and has attended several universities in the United States and France. He has been a member of several state and federal bars. He has spoken five languages, visited over 40 countries and climbed Mt. Kilimanjaro. He has developed an original methodology derived from law and economics and game theory to determine the economic efficiency of a legal infrastructure. His premise is that economics is not just about capital and technological constraints. It is also about political-legal institutions, such as the protection of property rights and the enforcement of contracts that are critical determinants of sustainable economic growth and investment opportunities. His methods allowed him to successfully predict the crash of the Chinese, Russian, Brazilian stock markets along with the price of oil. He has appeared on many television networks including, ABC, CNN Asia, CNN FN, Bloomberg, Fox, CNBC and NDTV Profit in New Delhi. In addition to television, he has appeared on NPR, Bloomberg, and over 60 radio stations throughout the US. He has also appeared in Canada on the CBC and in China on Voice of America. He has also published numerous articles for various journals including Foreign Affairs, Harvard International Review, International Financial Law Review, and others for the International Assessment and Strategy Center. He has have published letters in the Wall Street Journal and over 29 in the Financial Times. He has spoken at many conferences and programs all over the world. As a participant in the CFA Institute’s Retained Speaker Program, he has made presentations in 12 countries and 11 US cities. He has testified before the US China Economic and Security Review Commission. He has been quoted in The New York Times, The ANALYST (India), CNN.com, Smart Money, USA TODAY, The Far Eastern Economic Review, The International Herald Tribune, The South China Morning Post, Sankei Shimbun (Japan), The Sacramento Bee, The Hartford Courant and on the internet at many web sites including NewsMax.com, ProDevelopment (Russia), La Opinion, Univision (Spanish).
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
David J. Merkel, CFA — From 2003-2007, I was a leading commentator at the excellent investment website RealMoney.com (http://www.RealMoney.com). Back in 2003, after several years of correspondence, James Cramer invited me to write for the site, and now I write for RealMoney on equity and bond portfolio management, macroeconomics, derivatives, quantitative strategies, insurance issues, corporate governance, etc. My specialty is looking at the interlinkages in the markets in order to understand individual markets better.
I no longer contribute to RealMoney because my work duties have gotten larger, and I began this blog to develop a distinct voice with a wider distribution.
In 2008, I became the Chief Economist and Director of Research of Finacorp Securities (http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/02-08-2008/0004752449&EDATE=). Finacorp went into liquidation in June 2010, after which I decided to open my own asset management shop, Aleph Investments, LLC. I manage stock and bond portfolios for clients.
Until 2007, I was a senior investment analyst at Hovde Capital, responsible for analysis and valuation of investment opportunities for the FIP funds, particularly of companies in the insurance industry. I also managed the internal profit sharing and charitable endowment monies of the firm.
Prior to joining Hovde in 2003, I managed corporate bonds for Dwight Asset Management. In 1998, I joined the Mount Washington Investment Group as the Mortgage Bond and Asset Liability manager after working with Provident Mutual, AIG and Pacific Standard Life.
My background as a life actuary has given me a different perspective on investing. How do you earn money without taking undue risk? How do you convey ideas about investing while showing a proper level of uncertainty on the likelihood of success? How do the various markets fit together, telling us us a broader story than any single piece? These are the themes that I will deal with in this blog. I hold bachelor’s and master’s degrees from Johns Hopkins University.
In my spare time, I take care of our eight children with my wonderful wife Ruth. Visit this site: The Aleph Blog (http://alephblog.com/)
Brendan, a Pennsylvanian by birth, completed his B.S. at Allegheny College and his Ph.D. at Stanford University in the field of organic synthesis. He has been employed by a major pharmaceutical company and a tiny biopharma startup, but is an avid investor as well. His writings focus on a variety of topics ranging from stocks and bonds to analysis of recent news events relevant to financial markets.
Presently I am chief analyst at KY Research - an entirely independend equity research boutique that is covering solar PV companies. I am also a former buy-side financial analyst at mutual fund based in Eastern Europe and have a lifelong interest in markets and economy. Education includes a bachelor's and master's degree in finance.
Over the last few years I have worked diligently towards refining several of my favorite and most successful stock options strategies. My hard work and diligence have proven to be a success and now I want to share my ideas and strategies with a limited group of like-minded investors. My options strategies are not “get rich quick” strategies, rather sound options strategies based on three basic ideas - patience, position-sizing, and long-term performance.
After speaking with hundreds of investors, I discovered that the majority of investors were not looking for a ‘get rich quick’ scheme, or a foolproof method of trading options (we all know there isn’t one). What they wanted was a service with established capital preservation goals and historically proven long-term successful investment strategies. They wanted options strategies that would produce consistent, modest gains month after month, year after year. They also wanted to know that unnecessary risks were not being taken, but rather a methodical, tested set of rules were being utilized which would produce long-term gains.
My Options Portfolio was born from the collection of ideas mentioned above. After trading and back-testing almost every known options trading strategy, I fulfilled the requests of the investors and traders I spoke with and have identified several historically proven stock options strategies for long-term success in bull and bear markets. Again, all of my options trading strategies are based on three simple principles: patience, position-sizing, and a focus on long-term performance.
I encourage you to learn more about my stock options strategies by joining my FREE weekly options newsletter. Furthermore, every day in my daily blog I will provide an in-depth look at my trading strategies, including specific trading guidelines as well as the research and back-testing data that went into developing the rules. You will also receive valuable educational tools as well as trading tools regarding the tax-advantages of trading my strategies. Diversify your portfolio, better yet, educate yourself with one of my alternative investment strategies.
Andrew Crowder has been investing in stocks and options for over 15 years. A graduate of the University of Oregon and Northern Arizona University, Andrew’s work experience includes working for the medical division of W.L. Gore and Associates in Flagstaff, AZ, Oppenheimer & Co. in New York City and more recently working as a professional options trader, research analyst and financial columnist for a prominent stock options newsletter and advisory service.
Denis Ouellet has been involved in the Financial sector since 1975. Now retired, he is a part-time blogger. Denis has been analyst and head of research for a brokerage company, equity manager for various investment organizations (pension, mutual and hedge funds), head of global equity investments at a major pension fund and chairman of the equity investment committee for a major pension and mutual fund investment organization.
Note: I post substantially more on my blog www.bearnobull.com than on SA.
Patrick is Chief Market Analyst for Briefing.com, where he has worked since 1997 and authors the Page One, The Big Picture, Fed Brief, and Market View columns. He also provides commentary on Live In Play.
Every Tuesday morning he is a regular guest on KDOW's The Rob Black Show. He is quoted regularly by the financial press and has also appeared on CBS Radio, CNBC, CNN International, Fox Business Network, and PBS’ Nightly Business Report.
A graduate of Vanderbilt University, Patrick is located in Chicago and can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Richard is the managing principal of QVM Group LLC, a fee-based investment advisor based in Connecticut, with clients across the country. . QVM manages portfolios uniquely designed for each client on a flat fee basis through the client’s own accounts at Schwab; and provides investment coaching to "do-it-yourself" investors. The investment approach is based on value, asset allocation, expense control, risk management, customizing portfolios to each client's specific circumstances, and regular communication about strategy and absolute and benchmark performance.
Richard's extensive experience includes having served as a Board Director of Phoenix Investment Counsel, a U.S. pension and mutual funds manager, now Virtus Investment Partners (New York Stock Exchange: VRTS http://www.virtus.com); as Managing Director of Phoenix American Investment in London; and as a Board Director Aberdeen Asset Management PLC in Aberdeen Scotland (http://www.aberdeen-asset.com then listed London Stock Exchange, now a subsidiary of Phoenix Group inthe U.K.).
He has been a Trustee of a $500 million pension fund, and was a charter investor and member of the Board of Directors of several internet companies, including Lending Tree (NASDAQ: TREE http://www.lendingtree.com) prior to its IPO.
He is a 1970 graduate of Dartmouth College.
QVM Group LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor.
Visit the QVM Group website (http://www.qvmgroup.com) or its blog (http://www.qvminvest.com).
I spent eight years at Bank of America in New York (1978-86) covering Wall Street, then moved to Moody's Investors Service where I worked for 22 years, covering banks, sovereigns and corporates. I chaired the Credit Policy Committee for four years. I retired in 2007 as vice chairman.
PLEASE FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @christophermah3
My philosophy: I am a libertarian, a market monetarist, an admirer of Fisher, Friedman and Minsky. I believe in a strong safety net and strict regulation of the financial system. I support most of Dodd-Frank. I think that the world's #1 problem today is inadequate inflation and nominal growth. I believe that the Fed should have two mandates: financial stability, and a nominal output target. I follow Scott Sumner and the other market monetarists. I respect Krugman as a brilliant economist who happens to be a leftist.
In addition to publishing at Seeking Alpha, I have my own financial blog at http://capitalismandfredom.blogspot.com
Matt is Head of the iShares Fixed Income Strategy team. He and his team focus on product strategy for iShares ETFs in North and Latin America. He has over fifteen years of experience in the fixed income markets and is a CFA charterholder. He writes about fixed income and ETF education.
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations. Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs. My SMA investment fund now has a first year performance with double digit alpha. You can see the fund's performance chart at marketocracy.com (the Turtle Fund - symbol BPMF) and there is one in my profile over at TalkMarkets.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. For the SMA, I am using the methods proven to work well.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry. Most hedge funds are dangerous. The sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail. The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now gone. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. They are complex with large fees.
Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, or all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives.
Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real customer money tracking of your model fund.
My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF, which you can invest alongside with your own SMA account. They buy and sell for you. This can be a regular brokerage account, Roth IRA, or anything that best fits your needs. It's your own bank account with no trust or fraud issues as with hedge funds. To look into this, you can email Ken Kam at email@example.com or phone 1-877-462-4180.
Michael Pettis is a professor at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. He has also taught, from 2002 to 2004, at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management and, from 1992 to 2001, at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.
Pettis has worked on Wall Street in trading, capital markets, and corporate finance since 1987, when he joined the Sovereign Debt trading team at Manufacturers Hanover (now JP Morgan). Most recently, from 1996 to 2001, Pettis worked at Bear Stearns, where he was Managing Director-Principal heading the Latin American Capital Markets and the Liability Management groups.
Visit: China Financial Markets (http://www.mpettis.com)
Elliott Orsillo, CFA is a founding member of Season Investments and serves on the investment committee overseeing the management of client assets. He spent nearly ten years as a financial analyst and portfolio manager prior to co-founding Season Investments. Elliott earned a bachelor's degree in Engineering from Oral Roberts University and a Master's of Science from Stanford University with an emphasis in Finance. He also holds the CFA charter. Elliott and his wife Gigi have three children and like to spend their time outdoors enjoying everything the great state of Colorado has to offer.
AllAboutAlpha.com is an online strategic information service for the asset management and hedge fund industries. Like a research firm, we immerse ourselves in the latest academic research, scan the headlines and provide subscribers with what we think they need to know as the asset management industry enters a period of rapid evolution. Like a “blog,” we deliver those insights in a manner that is easy to digest, frequent and tempered by our own unique view of the world.
AllAboutAlpha.com is not a media firm or general hedge fund portal. Instead, we partner with these companies to shine a focused light on issues of a strategic importance to asset managers. We do not cover hedge fund launches, “people-moves,” or the performance or profiles of specific funds. We do not provide information on how to launch a hedge fund, legal or operational issues, or the investment outlook for particular strategies. We focus solely on uncovering the common denominators that tie together seemingly disparate developments to help our subscribers anticipate and manage change.
With nearly 1,000 archived articles and entries, and new material added daily, AllAboutAlpha.com is research tool designed to be an “early warning” system for asset managers, service providers, and investors. Whether you simply visit on a daily basis to read our latest thoughts, or whether you subscribe to our Knowledge Base of archives and “research dossiers” as you create reports, pitches, internal research materials or publications, we hope you find AllAboutAlpha.com a valuable addition to your other research sources.
A graduate of Stanford University and the University of Washington, I've worked at the crossroads of language, finance, and start-up tech for last nine years. Though I do trade stocks, my primary interest is in commodities.
We strive to build highly disciplined, sensible client portfolios. Portfolios that are focused on investing in businesses with solid free cash flows and solid dividend payouts. We buy businesses, not stocks.
Tim is a Registered Investment Advisor.
Jeffrey has developed a large-scale macroeconomic forecasting model that allows him to analyze current economic trends and determine their future impacts on the economy.
His analyses can be found on the Economic Calendar in addition to the Economic Insight, Economic Data Previews, and Economic Data Reviews columns. He also provides commentary on Live In Play.
Prior to joining Briefing.com, Jeffrey spent two years at AEGON where he provided long-term economic forecasts and analyzed current economic problems for the investment division.
He was an adjunct professor at Ohio Wesleyan University teaching econometrics and obtained a Ph.D. in Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics from Ohio State University.
I only look at stocks that have the possibility to double over a twelve month period and stocks in which the risk/reward ratio payout is high. In addition I focus on swing trade opportunities. I focus more on valuations and risk/reward metrics as opposed to what make companies tick. I have been a professional investor for over 20 years and during the past several years an economics analyst and financial writer for capital.gr, the biggest economic news portal in Greece. I have managed money from time to time and have also done some seed venture capital projects in the past.
Joseph has been an analyst, investor, and student of economic theory; money and banking; and statistical methods for evaluating and implementing risk/reward trading algorithms since 1972. Joseph is also an occasional contributor to financial publications and his essays are frequently cited by other financial websites and publications.
Since the end of the Great Recession, Joseph came to recognize that traditional methodologies for forecasting economic growth and investment asset pricing are no longer of value, and a broader understanding of the post Glass Steagall, financially engineered world that has driven markets and economies since the turn of the century is required today.
He has a good grasp of Shadow Banking, High Frequency Trading, and Dark Pools, and their impact on today’s markets. He has also spent considerable time understanding the new global paradigm of central bank involvement in experimental policy designed to better control economies.
Joseph doesn’t subscribe to a specific school of theory on economics. Rather, his thinking is based on a combination of the Classical School, the Austrian School, and the Keynesian School. He even sees the writings of Karl Marx as particularly instructive.
Joseph is particularly fond of the following quote from Albert Einstein and sees his own work as driven by that same passionate curiosity that Einstein refers to:
“I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious.”
Coming in a close second in terms of favorite quotes that express his views, Joseph embraces Lord Acton’s views expressed here:
“The danger is not that a particular class is unfit to govern.
Every class is unfit to govern."
Have managed money for clients as an independent advisor since 1991. Published a newsletter ECONOMIC LEADS from 1988 to 1993. Have an economics degree from Vanderbilt University. Focus on the macro picture forecasting the US economy and broad stock market. Also have a model to estimate long term equity returns for several countries.
Not many professional traders have had successful background in both futures trading AND options market making. Directional and volatility trading are worlds still far apart. Yet, understanding of both worlds can greatly help you become a more successful trader.
Effective communication and teaching is deconstructing what is complex, such as buying an options strangle swap, to universal forms and functions and reconstructing it in a language to which the person can easily relate.
I am passionate about sharing insights and bringing out "Aha!" responses.