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I am a reformed and recovering management consultant who, through multiple client engagements, applies deep exposure to the upstream and midstream oil and gas industry to create a picture of where these businesses will be in the next two years. With a background in both engineering and finance, I approach investing through a quantitative value approach for the medium and long term horizon.
The investment return profile looks to generate anywhere between 25 and 250 percent within a 12 to 36 month window and minimizes risk by focusing on businesses whose equity is liquid, and are large enough to allow a significant placement of investment assets (generally businesses with total enterprise values in excess of $250mm). The key elements of my investment style are:
1. Is there even the slightest chance the company is going bankrupt? If not, I just stop. I want stuff I can hang on to for long periods without significant risk.
2. Are the managers real artisans in their fields or have they fallen prey to the two most common corporate diseases: (a) their professional management activities are more important that the growth of the company or (b) their skills as financial engineers building masterpieces of leverage are more interesting to them than running a boring business. If not, I just stop. I want people running my investment that I can trust. Included in this category is skin in the game… they better own some measurable percentage of the business so that their own personal fortunes are tied up in it.
3. Is the business they are in one I could explain in under 30 minutes to my 10 year old son? For example, they suck natural gas out of the ground and sell it to whomever will give them the most for it. If not, I just stop. I want stuff I can understand without twisting my brain into a pretzel.
4. Do they build and/or sell stuff that during times of economic recession are truly discretionary items? If they are, I just stop. I want stuff that makes/sells things people need rain or shine.
Fundamentally, I believe self-directed investors can use their own experience and powers of understanding to make exceptional investments on their own, without turning to the professional investment advisory community... and obtain a much better return profile on their assets in the process. I like discovering value, whether because of cyclical down-on-hard-luck stories or secular growth stories and highlighting why I believe they are so.
Patience, low investment position turnover, true understanding of real value of a business, and the power of geometric compounding are the things for which I strive.
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions. I've been trading professionally for about 20 years.
I have a Marketplace service here on Seeking Alpha called Idea Generator that's focused on real-time actionable ideas based on valuation and catalysts. The Idea Generator portfolio has beat the S&P 500 by more than 48% in 28 months.
I also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries thousands of educational articles on finance and markets (in Portuguese).
I trade futures, stocks from the long and short side, forex and options. I trade both discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader, Quantshare and others). I can be reached at paulo.santosATthinkfn.com or followed on Twitter at twitter.com/ThinkFinance999
Malcolm holds a MSc in Geology and has 13 years of experience spanning the resource and investment industries. He started his career as a geoscientist at PanCanadian Petroleum (now EnCana) before transitioning into the investment industry as an international energy research analyst at Wellington West Capital Markets. Before joining Hydra Capital, Malcolm was a Vice President at K2 & Associates Investment Management where he focused on the energy and materials sectors.
Studied: Power Engineering, Exploration Technology, Worked Upstream, Midstream, Downstream in Oil and Gas, Pipelines, Drilling, Refineries. Regardless of our desire for clean energy, oil makes things and is the building block of any economy. From production to transport to refining its the lifeblood of our lifestyle and we will likely pay more for it in the future as the USD looses its advantage as the worlds only reserve currency. The USD has likely peaked and will soon rollover and as it does the commodities will see a boom over several years. I'm Interested in very big picture, game changers that come from sizeable economic deposits of Oil, Gas, Gold, Silver, Uranium, Specialty Metals used in supplying Energy Infrastructure. CAVEATS: Anything dubbed "EXPLORATION" should always be considered high "RISK" Capital and never larger than a single digit % of your entire portfolio. (Please re-read that sentence, its important) I don't offer investment advice, I generate compelling ideas that if they were to work out as promoted 'could' offer returns above average. The caveat being that exploration in gold, oil, silver, uranium, rarely nets a commercial operation that pays shareholders back, so you can trade them, and speculate in them, but don't count on them to save you as they are only intended as a low % holding that has good risk/reward return if the thesis works out. Your odds might be 2/100 for gold exploration, 3/100 for oil, so keep that in mind before plunking down your life savings. I try to weed out stories that have no hope, and shortlist ones that do. Focus areas; Oilsands, Oil Shale in North Dakota, Natural Gas in Canada, Colorado, Texas, North Island New Zealand, Australia, Uranium in Saskatchewan, Texas. Metals Mining in Nevada, British Columbia, Mexico. Thorium as a substitute for Uranium. Oil Exploration in proven formations in WSCB, Colorado, West Texas, Southern Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and select riskier emerging locations in Africa, Albania, Colombia, Argentina. Hydraulic Fracturing, Frac Sand Technologies, Oil Well Services and Horizontal Drillers. Natural Gas fired power plants and infrastructure, LNG Infrastructure, Terminals, LNG Shipping (LNG Shipping, Pipelines. North American OIL Pipelines, to and from Oilsands Producers, Refineries. OIL deposits organized by basin, geological name, or reserve size. Operate a startup blog called Tullii.org which aims to summarize the above topics using info graphics and charts for the layperson interested in adding oil and gas investments with a 2-3 year horizon. I approach from the Basin upward, do consult your own advisors before spending a dime on any of my ideas presented here. Remember I am just some guy you found on the internet, so do your own homework before you trade and be 100% responsible for your own risks and rewards. I repeat Most of what I present should only ever be 1-5% or less of your portfolio as its mostly unproven exploration projects nearing completion of validating reserves or resources. That being said I try to filter the projects by their upside potential with an emphasis on 'potential' to beat traditional investments if the story turns to fact via the drillbit.
I like investing in companies that have 1) wide economic moats, 2) good business prospects with increasing earnings, 3) easy-to-understand businesses and 4) trustworthy management. I would rather invest in quality companies at a fair or premium price than investing in mediocre companies at an undervalued price. My current investments include: Apple, Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Disney, MasterCard, Visa and Walmart.
Friedrich is the name given to our algorithm for analyzing companies that trade on the global stock markets. In creating Friedrich we concentrated on analyzing each company’s Main Street operations through various established ratios, along with our own unique ratios that we developed over the last 30 years. What we came up with is a final "Main Street" price per share based on Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which is a framework of accounting standards, rules and procedures defined by the professional accounting industry, which has been adopted by nearly all publicly traded U.S. companies. We feel that our Main Street price result is what each company would need to trade at in order to be attractive to a businessperson on Main Street looking to buy at a bargain.
Since the only constant in the universe is change, the results for each company fluctuate by varying degrees. No company is an island unto itself, but each operates in a world of constant change and at times in areas where Chaos is the norm. By analyzing a company’s Main Street operations over time, Friedrich is able to give the potential investor a decade long analysis (opinion) as well as offering a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) analysis (opinion), as well. Thus our readers will not only get as close to a real time view of operations on Main Street as is possible, but then can measure the consistency of the company’s operations over time to determine if s/he should invest or not.
Through our Friedrich algorithm we can analyze ten years of Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Cash Flow Statement data for each company all at once and generate one final result in seconds. Friedrich was designed to be ultra-conservative and thus will cut zero slack to any company under analysis and will do so with zero emotion. Companies must be exceptional in order to get an attractive Main Street valuation and the ideal investments according to our backtesting are the ones that have been consistent over time.
By being so ultra conservative Friedrich is designed to identify bargains that Wall Street investors may have overlooked. Companies shares may trade on the stock market but the companies themselves operate on Main Street, so Friedrich is designed to generate a Main Street price per share first and only then does he go to Wall Street and see the price for which Benjamin Graham’s “Mr. Market” is offering the shares.
Analyst and Fund Manager with almost 20 years investment experience. Coverage includes a variety of industries, with a focus on technology.
Particularly focused on value stocks, poorly understood or under-followed situations, and contrarian perspectives.
Primarily invest in special situations with value that is poorly understood or not fully appreciated, or where we believe there is a highly asymetric risk/reward profile. Also look for long/short ideas in mid/larger cap names where we believe we have a variant view, and the market is dramatically mispricing value.
Follow me on Twitter @valinsights
Gary Tanashian is proprietor of NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com. Actionable, hype-free technical, macro economic and sentiment analysis is provided in the premium market report 'Notes From the Rabbit Hole' (http://nftrh.com/nftrh-premium/). Complimentary analysis and commentary is available at the public websites (https://nftrh.com) and https://biiwii.com.
Value Digger holds MSc. in Electrical Engineering, speaks four languages and has lived in the U.S. for many years. He is a full-time, deep value investor and a well-known freelance writer who has been consistently ranked in the TOP-100 on TipRanks out of over 6,000 financial bloggers and analysts since 2012.
Specifically, he is a Seeking Alpha Author with one of the highest Followers per Article (F/A) rates. His F/A rate in Seeking Alpha exceeds 30 followers per article. Also, he is the Publisher and Editor of "The Alpha Discoverer", an insightful investment newsletter on The Maven (MVEN). Additionally, he is an Author for Stockhouse.com, Canada's #1 financial portal and one of North America's largest small cap investor communities with over 1 million unique visitors a month.
In 2014, Value Digger created a big community of deep value investors on his own website www.nathansbulletin.com. In 2015, Value Digger launched "Value Investor's Stock Club" on Seeking Alpha, a top-ranked deep value research service which includes an unparalleled, actively-managed and high-return Portfolio of unknown/underfollowed stocks. In 2017, Value Digger launched "The Alpha Discoverer", an insightful investment newsletter on TheMaven (MVEN) platform.
The Quarterly Performance Reviews PROVE his high returns and are available to his subscribers on Seeking Alpha and TheMaven. For reference, when Value Digger was managing money in the early 2000s, his Portfolio's annual ROI consistently exceeded 70%. His Premium Research is based on a comprehensive review of company-specific factors, macro conditions, competitors and the industry trends. Value Digger uses his analytical skills, goes against the grain and repeatedly discovers disconnects in a variety of sectors.
When it comes to his publicly-available picks and his free articles, Value Digger has a success rate of ~70%, an average return per recommendation of ~20% and a 5-star rating (TipRanks.com), which is the highest category quality ranking used to evaluate financial experts. TipRanks.com is a comprehensive investing tool that allows private investors and day traders to see the measured performance of anyone who publicly provides financial advice. TipRanks.com collects data, evaluates and ranks over 6,000 financial experts worldwide.
After 30 years of investing experience in the international markets (U.S., Canada, Australia, Europe), Value Digger has formulated a deep understanding of valuation analysis and his investment philosophy is firmly grounded in Ben Graham-style value-oriented opportunities that often have an assymetric risk/reward profile. On that front, he has created a unique proprietary database with thousands of publicly-traded companies per sector, which helps him spot the bargains and the bubbles before many investors find them.