My analysis focuses on the cyclical nature of individual companies and of markets in general. I've developed a unique approach to estimating the fair value of cyclical stocks, and that approach allows me to more accurately buy near the bottom of the cycle.
My academic background is in political science and I hold Bachelor's Degree and a Master's Degree in political theory from Iowa State University. I was awarded a Graduate Research Excellence Award in 2015 for my research on conservatism.
I'm a CPA who has been in the profession for 42 years. I've been investing for my own account over 30 years. I don't give investment advice to clients, but I do offer my personal opinion when asked. My portfolio consists of 65% equity securities (if it doesn't pay a dividend, I don't own it) and 35% income securities (REITs, BDCs and CEFs holding mostly bonds or preferreds). Current overall yield is about 5%.
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Individual investor. Primarily long in stocks. I will invest in options and have been successful but only when I see some quick opportunities, ie usually in and out quickly.
Also over the last year I have been selling some covered calls for extra income (almost $30k). Usually dividend stocks such as PRU, HON, AYR. Option period is 2-4 months out and expect to get 6% minimum from the option if called (but have made 10%). Divi is a bonus. If not called I usually make 3%-5% excl the divi and do it all over again. Annualized this equates to some very nice return %'s. I do this with stocks I am comfortable holding long-term and if called, I look to get back in. I still consider myself a novice in options as I dont invest in any wild options.
Investment nature is conservative overall, but I do own some volatile stocks such as casino stocks in Macau. Investments are a mixture of dividend, growth, and value stocks.
Goal is to retire before 60 (53 now), but may try a trial retirement in the next year or two and see what I think. Still have work to do in the investment arena, but continue to learn more year after year.
Ph.D. economics and Finance MBA finance
Globe Institute of Technology
Professor – Economics and Finance, Chair of Business Department
Colorado Technical University
Adjunct Professor – courses: Applied Managerial Finance (Graduate Level), Microeconomics, International Finance
European School Of Economics (New York Campus)
Adjunct Professor – Economics (Graduate Level) Courses taught: Microeconomics
Metropolitan College of New York
Adjunct Professor – Economics, Banking and Finance
Courses taught: History of Economic Thought, Macroeconomics, Money and Financial Institutions
World Gold Council
New York, NY
• Constructed econometric models relating to gold's role as a portfolio diversifier primarily aimed at institutional investors.
• Focused on models of the embedded optionality of gold in terms of its relation to other investment assets and economic fundamentals such as inflation and business conditions.
Founder and President, Internet Startup company with polling and investment advice websites.
Fundamental Portfolio Advisors, Inc.
Chief Portfolio Strategist – President
• At the predecessor company I started the New York Muni Fund, the first single state triple tax-free municipal bond fund.
• I took the fund from a one-employee start-up where I performed every function to a family of mutual funds which had five funds with total assets above $300 million and which did all of its distribution, accounting and transfer in-house.
• I wrote the initial prospectus and was responsible for managing the portfolios of what eventually grew to be a family of 5 mutual funds.
• Was chief economist for parent company’s brokerage affiliate.
• Involved on the buy-side in the development and monitoring of various structured municipal finance products. Worked with major issuers such as New York City and major investment banks such as Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs.
• Designed and submitted a U.S. Patent Application for a portfolio management system for mutual funds involving derivatives.
Note: In 1996 Fundamental Portfolio Advisors and myself were subject to civil litigation by the SEC which resulted in deregistration and a permanent bar from the securities industry.
A. Gary Shilling & Co.
Senior Economist – Vice President
Economic consulting, modeling and forecasting. Both macro and micro.
• Clients included: Emerson Electric, Bethlehem Steel, Castle & Cooke, Cooper Industries and the U.S. Department of Transportation.
• I was the author of the 1979 study commissioned by the U.S. Government Interstate Commerce Commission, which calculated the expected economic impact of trucking deregulation.
White, Weld & Co, Inc.
• White, Weld was the sixth largest investment banking and brokerage firm when Merrill Lynch bought it.
• Extensive work was done on the All-American Pipeline Proposal to tap the Alaskan Gas Reserves.
• The economics department of White, Weld formed A. Gary Shilling & Co. at the time of the Merrill Lynch merger.
American Stock Exchange
New York University
June 1978 Ph.D.
• Ph.D. dual field, economics and finance.
• Doctoral dissertation was in contingency claims (options) theory
June 1973 MBA with concentration in economics and finance
NYU Engineering School
June 1971 Bachelor of Science - Nuclear Engineering Tau Beta Pi
Analysis of the Embedded Inflation Optionality in Gold Prices. World Gold Council, 2000. New York, N.Y.
The Economic Impact of Trucking Deregulation. Interstate Commerce Commission, 1979, Washington D.C.
Top 100 Blogger According to TipRanks
Years of experience working for a registered independent advisor ("RIA"), structuring client accounts, performing due diligence on separately managed accounts, and performing fixed income and equity research. Worked at a bulge bracket investment bank on the trading desk for mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") as well as within derivatives trading, finished my time there in internal risk and audit.
Now invest and write full time on Seeking Alpha.
An investor with circa 30 years of professional, managerial and financial experience, gathered through both private-individual activities as well as asset management type of roles.
I'm involved in running a leveraged fixed-income, absolute return, hedge fund that aims at providing its investors with double-digit returns, per annum. The fund runs a fast, frequent and furious trading strategy and it focuses on the very short term. Definitely not a Buy & Hold!
I'm also advising and consulting to private individuals, mostly HNWI that I had been serving through many years of working within the private banking, wealth management and asset management arenas. This activity focuses on the long run and it's mostly based on a Buy & Hold strategy.
Risk management is at the very core of our essence and while we normally take LONG-naked positions, we constantly hedge our positions, in order to protect the downside, that usually occurs at times when you least expect that to take place...
I cover all asset-classes though mostly focusing on cash cows and high dividend paying "machines" that may generate high (total) returns: Interest-sensitive, income-generating, instruments, e.g. Bonds, REITs, BDCs, Preferred Shares, MLPs, etc. combined with a variety of high-risk, growth and value stocks.
I believe and invest for the long run but I'm very minded of the short run too. While it's possible to make a massive-quick "kill", here and there, good things usually come in small packages; so do returns. Therefore, I (hope but) don't expect my investments to double in value over a short period of time. I do, however, aim at an annual double-digit returns on average, preferably on an absolute basis, i.e. regardless of markets' returns and directions.
Timing is Everything! While investors can't time the market, I believe that this applies only to the long term. In the short-term (a couple of months) one can and should pick the right moment and the right entry point, based on his subjective-personal preferences, risk aversion and goals. Long-term, strategy/macro, investment decisions can't be timed while short-term, implementation/micro, investment decision, can!
When it comes to investments and trading I believe that the most important virtues are healthy common sense, general wisdom, sufficient research, vast experience, strive for excellence, ongoing willingness to learn, minimum ego, maximum patience, ability to withstand (enormous) pressure/s, strict discipline and a lot of luck!...
Dave Fish is the author of the U.S. Dividend Champions spreadsheet (and PDF), which is updated at the end of each month...and lists companies that have increased their dividend payout for at least 25 consecutive years. (Separate tabs list "Contenders" that have increased their payouts for 10-24 years and "Challengers" that have increased their payouts for 5-9 years.) http://dripinvesting.org/Tools/Tools.asp
Schwab Trading Services is a division of Charles Schwab. On a weekly basis, we will cover topics like trading strategies, risk management, options, trading in volatile markets, and more.
Ted Waller is a private investor who bought his first stock at age 13 (GTE) and has over 50 years of investing experience. His focus is on deep value and low risk. Acquiring wealth is a slow incremental process that requires setting goals, adherence to principles, patience, and flexibility.
I write about using dividends stocks, call options on dividends stocks, and discount bonds to retire on income that grows. When you rely on your savings to create some or all of your retirement income, dividend stocks and quality bonds are great investments.
I track my data and have 6 years of historical data; free to readers.
I am M* MoneyMadam
BSEE The Cooper Union, school of engineering 1966. Engineering manager Harris corp. 23 years Software development, Grumman Corp 10 years as project manager.
25 years managing my own IRA accounts, in retirement now with a CAGR of 11.25%
I am an investor and CFO for over 35 years who focuses on dividend growth investing (DGI) for the long term, particularly for building retirement income.
In addition to financial data, I concern myself with the quality of management and the long-term macro perspectives of the companies and industries in which I invest.
Retired, ex financial exec for a fortune 500 firm. Retired early (age 50) to enjoy life after a long corporate career. Turned out to be a great idea when I almost died of myelodysplastic syndrome in 2011 before an experimental stem cell transplant saved me. I write a pro bono investing newsletter and do investing seminars, currently writing a book that should be published this summer. Since I have the time, I am always willing to converse on investing, exchange ideas and otherwise help/share thoughts with anyone desiring to improve their investing results. The teacher always learns more than the students and the lines between the two often blur! Everyone has something of value to offer, whether they know it or not! My style is aimed at capitalizing on the human predispositions to "do the wrong thing." If you know your companies and their value, rest assured that humans will take them to valuation extremes in both directions. My theory of "The 7 Flaws of the Human Mind" is my basis for investing and will be featured in my upcoming book that should be published in this summer. (taking longer than I thought!)
I am an individual investor who is relatively new to the world of investing. Through the strategies and findings that I've learned from numerous sources and with a little bit of luck, my portfolio averaged 24.0% annual return for the last 3 years vs. 11.7% for S&P 500.
My goal is twofold: 1) share what I have learned through practicing stock investing, reading and researching, and 2) learn from Seeking Alpha community through the feedback and suggestions of the readers. I trust that the feedback and suggestions from Seeking Alpha community will help improve the odds of continued strong investment performance.
I hold an undergraduate degree in business administration with focus on financial institutions from Westminster University and an MBA from Yale University School of Management. I'm also a CFA charterholder, FRM charterholder, and an author of an eBook on personal finance.
Nicholas P. Cheer is CIO of a private family office and a financial thought leader. Nicholas has served as a fiduciary and investment advisor to high net worth clients. All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reuben Gregg Brewer spent about 15 years at world renowned Value Line, the Publisher of The Value Line Investment Survey. During this time he worked in various facets of the company's research efforts, including equities, mutual funds, convertibles, and options. For six years, he directed all of the company's research efforts as Value Line's Executive Director of Research. Today he writes about the things that interest him.
I'm a well-informed retail investor and post on SA in order to expose my thought process to critical examination and comment from readers. It makes me a better investor. I'm particularly proud of bullish macro articles posted in 2009 and later, in which I presented ideas that encouraged me to invest very profitably in a rising market. I also did articles on individual stocks, many of which contained insights not available elsewhere. Finally, I wrote a number of thoughtful articles critical of financialism and the lack of ethics on Wall Street. I donate the proceeds from my blogging to charity. The best way for me to monetize my insights is to invest accordingly. As a retail investor, I don't give investment advice. I write about what I'm investing in, and the thought process involved in decision making and stock selection. Hopefully some of what I write is of benefit to others, by sharing my experience as I interpret it and helping them improve their investment thinking and process.
Have been actively investing for 35 years. Handled financial communications for two Fortune 500 companies for 25 years, including annual and quarterly reports and financial presentations to the NY Society of Security Analysts and other groups. Speechwriter for corporate senior executives. Won numerous public relations achievement awards.
Recently retired Finance professional from manufacturing environment with an MBA & CMA. Beginning to self manage 401-k and began writing calls or purchase puts of dividend paying stocks. Been a long term investor for 40+ years but now taking a more active roll with greater focus on dividend growth and yields.
Former "C" level corporate executive (public and private companies) with both domestic and international operating experience. Current and former board member of privately held firms. My portfolio is comprised of four segments. One segment is actively invested, primarily in individual corporate and municipal bonds plus international bond funds . A second segment is invested in low cost mutual funds in IRA's and 401k plans. The third segment is comprised of dividend paying stocks I actively manage. I also have a fourth segment comprised of low cost global equity funds. My holding period tends is more than one year. I own several stocks I've held for decades and most bonds are held to maturity.
I look for opportunity by studying the marketplace in which a firm competes, its management, its competitors, and the macro trends (government regulation, demographics, customer perceptions, and product life cycles) impacting the business. I look first to sound financial management then try to assess if management's strategic vision and execution of that vision can result in competitive advantage.