A regular guy (still alive from New York!) who shows how he would manage a model (not actual) portfolio for educational purposes only, my personal finances are my own business and the disclosure statement is only for the portfolio we are discussing. I give absolutely no advise, and only offer suggestions on how I could manage a portfolio.
The main reason for a subscriber to "Follow" me, especially for the model portfolios (TARP or otherwise), is to glean some knowledge to become a better investor and not simply place bets. Money management is every bit as important as any other aspect of investing, and by following a portfolio and the actions taken, you can gain some insight into a somewhat higher level of investing acumen. There are no requirements, and this is not "rocket science" - it is simply a powerful way for you to put the money you have worked hard for to work even harder for you. My message will be consistent, and my hope by doing this is to share my own experiences, illustrated in the model mock portfolios I build exclusively for Seeking Alpha. Knowledge is power, and many folks shy away from the investing world because that very world makes it more confusing each and every day in an effort to sell you something: stock picks, technical strategies, books, videos, subscriptions with "secret ideas," gadgets, and even snake oil. My promise to you is that my work here will remain free to all of my followers, with the hope of giving to you some of the things that took years for me to learn myself.
Precious metals, energy and commodities. Swing trading commodities, and investing in deep value stocks. Sprottmoney.com contributor. Advanced analytics and proprietary indicators for gold and crude oil. Twenty-five years of experience in energy, risk management and financial analysis. BS Mechanical Engineering & MBA Finance.
"One of the best ways to do well in this business is to go to areas that have been unexploited by research capability and work them for all you can." -Julian Robertson
Bram de Haas lives with his girlfriend and baby son in The Netherlands/Nijmegen. Living in a city once a Roman settlement later bombed by allied forces in WO II he is aware of the vulnerability of Empires and the impact of the unexpected.
His investment style can be summed up as safety first. Once safe: be agressive.
Full-time Investor, and frequent speculator.
Focus on US Stocks and Real Estate.
Degree in Economics and Finance.
Almost 40 years of economic analysis and active investing experience. Retired Financial Services CEO (company had $2 Billion in financial assets).
I invest solely for my own account, and offer no services for hire. My investments are my only source of income.
Macroeconomic conditions and cycle progression are the foundation of my investment strategy. I evaluate the macro trend, and then select investments that will benefit from that trend, shifting the mix as the cycle progresses.
Earnings growth is the sustainable fuel for investment gains. So, I look to position my portfolio accordingly, seeking those companies and industries whose profit outlook is better than average. This condition shifts as the cycle progresses.
I stay fully invested during the rising tide of a growing economy. I use leverage until the expansion shows signs of constraints and exhaustion. Rising input costs (wages, materials, energy, interest rates) eventually squeeze corporate profits, making growth less feasible, and recession probable.
When I see evidence of a coming recession combined with weakness in the market, I exit my equity positions, reduce my real estate holdings, and shift to the safety of cash and treasury bonds.
After the market slides deeply, and after the panic reaches headline proportions, I begin to reinvest as I anticipate or see evidence of the market bottom. I successfully avoided the 2001-2002 and the 2008 bear markets, while being fully invested for the bull markets around those declines.
In prior cycles I purchased individual stocks. However, during this bull market I am making heavy use of ETFs (including Sector ETFs). This is much less work, but results in more average returns. I do purchase some individual company stocks when I think the company will perform better than the average in its industry sector. I do not sell short, and rarely use options.
My portfolio is about half market tracking. I also use sector rotation, selected specific companies, modest margin debt, and 3x leveraged ETFs, within the rising cycle trend to magnify and outperform the average trend. I also adjust the size of my market exposure based on market conditions, and historic patterns.
My gross investment asset allocation target is roughly 70% stock, and 30% real estate (rentals).
Current Stock Portfolio Mix (July 2017): 45% Broad Market Tracking (VTI, SPY, RSP, QQQ, VB...),16% Homebuilders and related, 16% Consumer Discretionary (VCR), 8% Industrials (XLI), 06% Berkshire Hathaway, 9% all other. Total Stock Market Leverage is 1.13x (down from 1.34x in 2014). No bonds, and cash is about 1% of gross assets. Real Estate is Residential Rentals, mostly near the beach (average LTV is about 35%).
Over the past few decades of active investing in stocks and real estate, my investment returns have exceeded the average return of the S&P 500. Since the prior market peak in October 2007, my Stock portfolio average total return on equity has been about 15% per year, compounded. My Real Estate portfolio average total return has been about 9% per year for the same period. The S&P 500 average total return has been about 7% per year during the same period.
I'm the founder of the London Deep Value Investment Club (LDVIC). I manage investors' capital in the club fee-free, with no strings attached. I do this to get a track record.
LDVIC 2017 Q3: 9 months track record (5th of October 2016 to 4th of July 2017) 16.18% vs S&P500 14.70% over the same time frame. Track record available, page 12.
I'm a happy family man, very open and contactable. firstname.lastname@example.org
WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility.
I have a private small company with a few different revenue streams. I survive off of one particular stream and invest the other smaller streams into the market.
I consider myself a longterm value investor and am not risk averse. I have three seperate portfolios each holding one third of my capital.
My goal was to create a multiframed method of analysis that might allow the average retail investor to pick investments that have a high probability of doubling or tripling. I am willing to cut against the grain and take contrarian deep value bets based on price value inefficiencies. I would like to compound at 30% average yearly gains in an all of my accounts. I have had 2 years of compounding my money at over 300% in these accounts so I would be ahead of my current benchmarks. As of end of 2013.
However, I do not expect to be able to repeat my results over the long term by trading. In fact I expect to sometimes underperform the market as many of my ideas might take time to come to fruition. I will often use arbitrage opportunities or short term swings for smaller gains. I am working on fine tuning my methodology but I believe it is unique and should produce the minimum average of 30%. I am currently ahead in this race and can withstand a correction as my portfolio grows quickly. I am also willing to get defensive if need be to protect capital or even go 50%cash. I run this as a very concentrated portfolio.
One third of my capital goes in a DRIP that I average in monthly to seven companies. I change these companies yearly based on valuation and position size. I grow positions here over time and never want to hold more than 30 companies in this account.
One third goes into long term companies that I see huge growth potential.
One third is in speculative bio-tech, tech and just about anything else where I can understand the financial statement sheets on and has great possible momentum and catalysts.
I often find myself going against the current trends in the market as I see opportunity in others fear. That said I seem to invest in around 15 stocks at a time and try to focus investments into the company at the best value. I hope to earn a healthy return over the next ten years to twenty years.
I am also interested in working in the industry as a career change and am always open to advice. Anyone out there want a 36 year old intern with advanced degrees in other areas?
My main skills are finding deep value opportunities and lucrative swing trade opportunities. I seem to have found a lot of bottom entries even in today's markets. I am willing to learn, enjoy games/game theory, love to read and solve problems.
I am working on starting a limited partnership for 2015 or 2016 so that I can share my gifts with family and friends.
"What looks like a horrible disaster now could be an awesome opportunity." "Buy Cheap when the big funds and others are giving it away"
All the Best,
Taylor Dart is a top contributor on Seeking Alpha in both the Long Ideas and Precious Metals section of the website. He has over 8 years of experience in active investing with a compound annual growth rate the past 4 years of 21 percent. His main focus is on undervalued growth stocks outperforming the market and their peers. In addition he use extensive technical analysis to capture maximum upside price action, as his belief is that timing is everything. Taylor scans upwards of 1200 stocks nightly on the U.S. and Canadian markets to identify the best fundamental opportunities with the most timely technical setups. He is a huge proponent of trend following and the "Turtles" who enjoyed compound annual growth rates of over 80 percent per year.
"If there is a sudden range expansion in a market that has been trading narrowly, human nature is to try and fade that price move. When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.” - Paul Tudor Jones
"While a fundamental analyst may be able to properly evaluate the economics underlying a stock, I do not believe they can predict how the masses will process this same information. Ultimately, it is the dollar-weighted collective opinion of all market participants that determines whether a stock goes up or down. This consensus is revealed by analyzing price."
Mark Abraham , Quantitative Capital Management, L.P.
"Profit targets imply a trader can predict the future. Profit targets are profit-limiting. Trend followers stay in the moment of now, avoid prognostication, and let markets run as far as they go. "
Thomas Vician, Jr.
"We can’t always take advantage of a particular period. But in an uncertain world, perhaps the investment philosophy that makes the most sense, if you study the implications carefully, is trend following. Trend following consists of buying high and selling low. For 19 years we have consistently bought high and sold low. If trends were not the underlying nature of markets, our type of trading would have very quickly put us out of business. It wouldn’t take 19 years or even 19 months of buying high and selling low ALL of the time to bankrupt you. But trends are an integral, underlying reality in life. How can someone buy high and sell low and be successful for two decades unless the underlying nature of markets is to trend? On the other hand, I’ve seen year-after-year, brilliant men buying low and selling high for a while successfully and then going broke because they thought they understood why a certain investment instrument had to perform in accordance with their personal logic. "
John W. Henry
I am an individual investor. My professional background is in the finance area. I have managed my own investments for over 30 years. For most of that time, my focus was on portfolio building using individual stocks. About 5 years ago, I shifted my focus to investing via ETFs. I have found that this has greatly simplified my investment style yet simultaneously increased the scope and diversification of my portfolio.
I firmly believe that the benefits of investing, and the market, should be understandable and available to everyone, including individuals who may have little or no financial background. My hope is to explain concepts simply, taking much of the mystery and accompanying fear out of the process. I look forward to enjoying the journey with everyone who decides to follow me, and hope I can make a difference in someone's life.
In addition to my blog, you can find me at:
Finance professional and active investor for over 35 years. All proceeds from Seeking Alpha are donated to charity.
Disclaimer: Articles and/or comments represent the opinion of the author, who is not a licensed financial advisor. Articles are intended for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice to any particular individual. Readers should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Thirty five year veteran of the engineering world, with design experience primarily in hard infrastructure such as buildings, roadways, airports, water and sewer, power, and foundations. Currently employed as a project control engineer in the nuclear field, with primary emphasis on cost estimating. Whitewater kayaker and canoer, so risk management is nothing new.
Value investor running a long-only partnership/SMAs, as well as a Marketplace subscription for objective buyside research. Pseudonymous to protect my IR access but I’m always up for a conversation with anyone interested in value investing or mental models. I also collaborate with a few well-known hedge fund managers and am open to swapping notes if we're looking at similar names.
My Marketplace subscription service, called “Outsourced Analyst,” provides small-mid-sized funds, family offices, or high-net-worth investors the workflow of an analyst for a hundredth of the price. I write objective coverage of high-quality, underfollowed small-caps that I'm working on / following. Subscribers also have early (sometimes exclusive) access to writeups of some of my best ideas like those I've posted on LQDT, CRAI, FC, LGIH, BOOM, CSWI, and so on. Bonus material is thought pieces - I place a lot of emphasis on learning and getting better - so if/when I make mistakes, I'll write up postmortems with what I learned, and maybe they'll help you as well... Membership will be limited to the first 250 subscribers.
Seeking Alpha T&C requires me to disclose that I'm a registered investment advisor; regulations require me to reiterate that nothing I say is investment advice - it's just my Monday-morning-quarterback opinion for your entertainment and amusement. Always do your own due diligence, consider your own financial position, and consult your preferred financial professional before making any investment decision.
Founder and Lead Analyst at Lone Wolf Publications Ltd (www.lonewolftrader.com).
I also manage a private investment portfolio full time, and also provide mutual fund analysis and buy recommendations to individual investors managing their own investments.
I trade for myself via ETFs and futures markets, with interests in commodities generally and a special interest in precious metals.
Doug Eberhardt is a 31 year investment professional offering his analysis on 46 ETFs 5 days a week providing buy and sell recommendations in up or down markets at IllusionsofWealth.com. (2 Week Free Trial) He is the author of the book "Illusions of Wealth" that offers a fresh look on how investors can profit (Amazon). He has written the book "Buy Gold and Silver Safely" and is a broker/dealer selling gold and silver coins and bars at 1% over wholesale cost to investors who are looking for "real wealth" diversification and protection from currency depreciation.
Founder of "The Contrarian", a premium research service, featuring the "Bet The Farm" Portfolio. Actively investing since 1995, I have soared like an eagle, and been unmercifully humbled by the markets. Achieved positive returns in 2008, and turned an account with $60,310 on 1/1/2009 into an account with $3,177,937 on 11/30/2009. My best years have been 1995-2003, 2008-2012, and 2016-????. My worst years were 2013-2015. I believe inflation is coming, and we are at an inflection point in the markets.
Twenty year career as an investment analyst, investor, portfolio manager, consultant, and writer. Founder of Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd, which was incorporated in the spring of 2009. Dyed in the wool contrarian investor, who has learned, the hard way, that a good contrarian is only contrarian 20% of the time, but being right at key inflection points is the key to meaningful wealth creation in the markets. I believe we are near a meaningful inflection point, perhaps the biggest one yet, for the third time in the past 15 years.
Historically, I have had huge wins and impressive losses based on a concentrated, contrarian strategy. Trying to keep the good while filtering out the bad.
Seeking to run an all weather portfolio with minimal volatility and index overlays to capture my strategic and tactical recommendations along with a concentrated best ideas portfolio, which is my bread and butter, but the volatility only makes it suitable for a small piece of an investor's overall portfolio. The following are a couple of my favorite investment quotes.
"Life and investing are long ballgames." Julian Robertson
"A diamond is a chunk of coal that is made good under pressure."
"Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world." Albert Einstein
I’ve been on top of the world, and the world has been on top of me. I have learned to enjoy the perspective from each view, and use opportunities to persistently acquire knowledge, and enjoy the company of those around me, especially loved ones, family, and friends.
At heart, I am a market historian with an unrivaled passion for the capital markets. I have had a long history and specialization with concentrated positions and options trading. Made money in 2008 with a net long portfolio, deploying capital in some of the market's darkest hours into long positions including purchases of American Express, Atlas Energy, Crosstex, First Industrial Real Estate, General Growth Properties, Genworth, Macquarie Infrastructure, Ruth Chris Steakhouse, and Vornado near their lows. Shorting, hedging, and option strategies also helped me in 2007 and 2009, and these are skills that I have developed ever since I started trading heavily in 1996.I enjoy reading, accumulating knowledge, and putting this knowledge to work in the active capital markets, learning lessons along the way.To this day, I continue to learn, and some of these learning lessons have been excruciatingly difficult ones, especially over the past several years, as I made mistakes allocating capital, including a sizable portion of my own capital (I always invest alongside my clients), to commodity related stocks. While all commodity related stocks have struggled since April of 2011, coal companies, which attracted me due to their extremely cheap valuations, and out-of-favor status (I am a strong believer in behavioral finance alongside fundamentals and technicals) have been the worst investing mistake of my career. The focus on the commodity arena has been the biggest mistake of my investment career thus far, yet in its aftermath, I see tremendous opportunity, even larger in scope than the fortuitous 2008/2009 environment.The capital that I accumulated and the confidence gained in navigating the treacherous investment waters of 2008 gave me the confidence to launch my own investment firm in the spring of 2009, right before the ultimate lows in the stock market. At the time I was working as a senior analyst at one of the largest RIA's in the country, and I felt strongly that the market environment was the best time since 1974/1975 to start an investment firm.
Prior to starting my firm, I was a senior analyst for three different firms over approximately 10 years (Charles Schwab, Redwood, Oxford), moving up in responsibility and scope at each stop along my journey. Since I was a paperboy, I have always had an interest in the investment markets. I love researching and finding opportunities. I am a Chartered Financial Analyst, CFA, as well as a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst, CAIA. After starting in the teaching program at Ball State University, I switched to a career in finance when I turned a small student loan into a substantial amount of capital. I graduated summa cum laude with a degree in finance from Ball State.
Full disclosure, I am not currently a registered investment advisor, though I did serve in this capacity from 2009-2014, while owning Koldus Contrarian Investments, Ltd. Additionally, I held various securities licenses from 2000-2014, without a single complaint filed, and I continue to hold industry designations. At the end of 2014, I voluntarily let my state registration expire, as I transitioned the business to a different structure. Prior to this, I had passed, and held, various securities exams and licenses, including the Series 7, Series 63, and Series 65 exams, in addition to others, alongside my CFA and CAIA designations. Unfortunately, I did not file the proper paperwork to withdraw my state registration, and I did not disclose a personal arrangement, and subsequent civil case, between myself and a former close personal friend and client, that was initiated in 2011. I was unaware that I was required to disclose these items, and my securities attorney, at the time, did not advise me to do so. Previously, I had managed a portfolio for this gentleman, and we had taken an investment of approximately $7 million in 2009, and grown it to over $25 million at the beginning of 2012. After a difficult year of performance, an employee of the firm I owned, and friend, resigned in early 2013, and took the aforementioned client to a competing firm. As a result of not filing the proper paperwork, I agreed to a settlement, with a potential $2500 fine in the future, depending on if I choose to reapply to be a non-exempt advisor.
Retired Pharmacist. Call me Rose. Nose= Knows enough to know I need to keep learning and keeping a great dividend paying nest egg growing upwards. I also enjoy total return, but it is not my primary goal, it just happens to follow when buying great quality companies.
My 85+ stock portfolio is listed here by sector, largest holding by value is listed first. Updated 7/18//2017.
Consumer Defensive (16): PM, KO, GIS, MO, KMB, TGT, DEO, PG, CVS, PEP, SJM, MDLZ, BUD, CL, KHC, HSY -
Consumer Cyclical (8): NKE, MCD, HD, VFC, GPC, SBUX, TSCO,- MAT (hopefully will be sold soon using options)-
Healthcare (8): JNJ, ABBV, PFE. CAH, AMGN, BDX , MDT, BMY, -
Energy (8): XOM, RDS/B , OXY, BP. CVX, VLO, AMLP, mystery stock to be named in the future -
Tech (2): CSCO, ADP -
Industrial(6): BA, CMI, MMM, LMT, UNP, GWW -
Financial (7): MA, V, TROW, NRZ (mREIT), MET -Mystery mREIT & CEF
BDCs (5): NEWT, GAIN , MRCC, HTGC, TPVG
REAL ESTATE or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) or Equity REITs:
Healthcare (3) : OHI, VTR,SNR -
Misc (13): WPC, DLR, STAG, WPG, SPG, STOR, SKT, KIM, APLE, CLDT, CIO-(new and small), -WPGpH
Telecom (2): VZ and T -
Utility (8): SO, D, XEL, MGEE, WEC, DNP, LNT, CNP -
DNP is a CEF which predominately holds Utilities.
Free pdf Download of the Book by Lowell Miller
"The Single Best Investment"
Physical and financial commodity trader and Portfolio manager specializing in natural gas and petroleum commodities with 29 years of extensive and varied experience under a broad range of market conditions.
A proven track record of success employing a very methodical and disciplined trading style.
Skilled in both granular supply/demand analysis as well as the art of technical analysis.
Founding member of proprietary energy derivatives trading desk at Morgan Stanley, head energy trader at Chase Manhattan Bank, natural gas portfolio manager at Perennial Capital. Founding partner 4 Corners Global Trading, LLC
Specialties: Natural gas trading, Petroleum trading, derivatives, risk management, commodity futures, options expert, Technical analysis, fundamental analysis
Full-time investor. Formerly buy-side credit analyst (2yrs) covering Japanese + Asian companies. Before that, I was a cross asset derivatives salesperson at a large bulge-bracket firm, based in Tokyo (4yrs). I use Seeking Alpha to clarify and synthesize my investment thought process and to elicit feedback on my theses; additionally I like to connect with other investors and swap ideas.
You can read my finance-related blog at rapercapital.com (less organized than Seeking Alpha writeups, more my random musings on various finance-related topics).
Going forward I will try to tweet my investment-related thoughts/updates to articles/etc. You can follow me on Twitter, my handle is @puppyeh1
Always looking for new ideas across the board. Happy to exchange ideas/share thoughts/swap notes, feel free to private message me. I currently live in Singapore.
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Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
Protecting and preserving capital over the long term is more important than growing capital. Particularly devoted to researching cheap stocks of high quality companies, GARP stocks, Magic Formula names, and stocks trading below intrinsic value. Participate long only without hedge when overall bull market is trading for a CAPE under 15 (Tobin's Q under .8X) or when blood is in the streets (not dip buyers), but strive to cut losers early when the facts change and refuse to marry long or short positions unless a "holding period of forever" makes sense. Hunches must be backed up by disciplined systems. In fully valued markets, we prefer hedging via index options and light commodity trading/trend following. Not interested in participating in latest fad or bubble. Prefer to short the bubble, but only after evidence suggests the bubble has popped. Prefer to hedge any long positions in frothy markets utilizing a balanced long short equity approach in fairly valued markets. In undervalued markets, we need confirmation from market conditions and valuations in order to invest 100% long (or more) using in the money call options for leverage. Covered calls, calendar spreads, and other options strategies for capturing theta decay. Cut losers on short side by using ITM put options instead of stock, trend following strategies if trading commodities (for diversification). Fundamental analysis but also technical analysis. Mathematical, disciplined trading strategies. Strive first off to be right about the overall direction of the market (bull or bear). Hold lots of cash when people are being greedy. Nothing we publish here is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Please consult your financial advisor before buying or selling any security.
I apologize to investors who follow my articles, but I don't currently plan to resume any involvement with SA, though that may eventually change, if the site ever implements/enforces deterrents to web stalkers. For now, I only publicly share opinions on stocks via Twitter, StockTwits, etc. The rest of what follows is my normal profile, so I won't have to rewrite it, should I ever continue posting on SA. Best of luck investing. Cheers. I run a small family office managing long-term portfolios and special projects beyond the capital markets. I'm fortunate to have worked for a NYSE-traded financial firm for the decade through 2010, but I am not an adviser, my articles only share our investing actions/opinions, and they are not investment advice. Proof is in the pudding, so here are our stock portfolio returns from the most recent five years: 2011 +37%, 2012 +32%, 2013 +52%, 2014 +11%, 2015 +14%, 2016 +37% (those are only capital gains, but all except 2 out of ~25 holdings pay dividends). Returns are moderating as expected, since most all positions were rebuilt/opened in 2010-2012 at extreme undervaluation levels, yet only 1-3 new positions are opened in each more recent year at moderate undervaluation levels. I also trade around our core positions for short-term profits, but I do not include trade gains in portfolio return tracking, and my articles are strictly about long-term investing. My investing career started in the 1980s, and the transition to full-time was finalized in 2009. I only list returns from 2012 because that's when I became most active on SA, and the stock calls that led to those results can be verified here. For 2008-2011, my focus was shorter-term trades, which made total annual returns harder to tally, so without wasting time backtracking, I can only say returns were worthwhile. For most years prior, I was a blue-chip-only, buy-and-hold guy, which also worked well, so I still own most of those stocks in accounts separate from our actively-managed portfolios.