Private investor. I've been investing in stocks for 20+ years. I feel I've learned a lot over that time. I run a focused portfolio and patience is my mantra. I tend to focus on three types of stocks mostly in the small cap sector: - Companies with new technology that will disrupt an industry. I do not invest in biotechs and am not looking to gamble. These must be high conviction picks with proven technology, clear goals, and excellent management. - Value plays based on fundamentals. The companies must not only be cheap, but have a good story regarding how they will get the market to realize their true value. - Stocks with special situations or upcoming catalysts.
I am a value investor focusing on REITS and other income producing stocks and etfs. I am a fairly versatile writer and will cover many different topics (Gold, Oil, future of transportation, bubble in Amazon) beyond my niche and jump in wherever I see a popular unwarranted opinion. I believe price is everything and at the "right price" most assets either become attractive and at the "wrong price" most assets become unattractive. If you need revalidation for popular opinion on popular tickers ("Yes it is 2X as expensive as everything else but it pays 90% and not 100% of its earnings... so we should buy it") please follow someone else. While I consider myself smart, I have been known to make mistakes (just like every other human). Please don't expect me to be right every time.
I've retired from a career in commercial Real Estate. Now I manage a conservative portfolio of blue chip equities. I target dividend-paying blue chips on sale. The majority of my articles will focus on what I know best (and what is under-covered on Seeking Alpha), Canadian mid and large caps. REITs are my focus, though I dabble in everything. Ranked 8th on Seeking Alpha for Services stocks!
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Chris Colvin, CFA, is the Founder and Managing Partner of Breach Inlet Capital Management, LLC, which is a Registered Investment Advisor. We use a concentrated strategy targeting North American small cap equity transformations, defined as companies going through significant changes to create substantial shareholder value.
Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks is a research service for value investors seeking value stocks with a huge gap between price and intrinsic value, leaning towards deep value balance sheet bargains (i.e. buying assets at a discount e.g. net cash stocks, net-nets, low P/B stocks, sum-of-the-parts discounts) and wide moat stocks (i.e. buying earnings power at a discount in great companies like "Magic Formula" stocks, high quality businesses, hidden champions and wide moat compounders).
Those who believe that the pendulum will move in one direction forever—or reside at an extreme forever— eventually will lose huge sums. Those who understand the pendulum's behavior can benefit enormously. ~ Howard Marks
Investment ideas for Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks are generated from screens, insider trades, 13Fs, fund manager letters, analyst reports, blogs and forums. The initial ideas sourced are subsequently evaluated using The Cheapness-Safety-Quality (CSQ) framework, applying customized investment checklists to ask the right questions of the investments in question, along the dimension of cheapness, safety and quality. Asia/U.S. Deep-Value Wide-Moat Stocks' value investing philosophy borrows from the wisdom of value investing gurus, using both quantitative screens and qualitative inputs to filter the global stock markets for investment ideas.
If you’re on my profile page, you probably want to know a little more about me before signing up for the Mortgage REIT Forum. That seems reasonable.
Why is my name hidden?
I see things that are problems in the world and I work to correct them. I shine a light on places where companies don't want anyone looking. A few CEOs have reached out to me because they appreciated the thorough analysis; others have taken great offense because I go against the grain by calling out poor investments. Most analysts simply apply hold ratings or move on to find a different company to discuss. Executives of companies that are performing poorly on a fundamental level don’t want extra attention, so ignoring them is the safer course. Since I choose to highlight those problems, I keep my name off the site. Hiding my name makes it a little more difficult for those companies to try to silence me with nuisance suits.
Why did I pick mortgage REITs?
As I learned the sector, I began building more and more complicated models to estimate the fluctuations in value and performance across different mortgage REITs. I became even more interested as I found certain economic theories, such as efficient market prices, clearly did not apply. The lack of high quality public analysis meant investors were often poorly informed which set the stage for price failures. Economics would suggest that the rewards from this analysis must be the fair compensation for the talent that goes into finding them, but efficient markets still requires that the adjustment be immediate. It is not. Do you want an example? Look at the price movement in Resource Capital Corporation leading up to and following the earnings release (03/14/2017). There was a gap, even the morning of the earnings release, because the other professionals covering them needed time to update their expectations.
How did I build my system?
I was good at math and decent (certainly not great) at excel. I spent a great deal of time theorizing about how things worked and building models to represent that view. Then I would pull historical data from a company and see if my model was correct. If it was, great, I could expand the sample size. If it was wrong, I would look for the reason. I try to nail down as many variables as possible. The result of working long hours and constantly reassessing my beliefs as I tested them against the historical data was a deeper understanding of how the parts actually worked. This is why you may see me criticize analysts that put in a weak effort or try to cut large corners.
What is my view on risk?
There is a world of difference between the ways an investor can generate their returns. The traditional view is to see earning excess returns as compensation for taking on high levels of risk. I believe it is far better to focus on earning returns from catching market failures. These failures happen due to poor liquidity and investors (including analysts) working with incomplete information. I believe that by knowing the individual companies well, the investor can step in when the “risk” is heavily skewed in favor of “returns”. They should hunt for opportunities where there should be sufficient room for positive returns and very low probabilities of any major decline.
That theory guides my investment decision making. I do not try to generate higher returns, I try to generate more consistent returns by reducing the downwards risk. Occasionally that results in exceptionally high returns when something corrects, but it also means I am willing to pass on several decent opportunities because I want the risk/return profile skewed heavily in my favor.
It is also a reason you’ll see me emphasize preferred shares as an investment strategy. Some of these have very stable valuations and strong yields. At the same time, I will also look to sell the shares if I believe they are overvalued. This can be challenging for many buy and hold investors, but it is another way to take advantage of liquidity. I pay less attention to setting up those limit-sell orders on the preferred shares if I have a large cash position already, but if I see several things at attractive prices then I don’t want to stay in a share if I could reallocate the capital to something that is materially more attractive.
The subscription platform allows me to do a few things very well. It allows me to share the research I’m doing for my own investment decision making. It allows me to communicate rapidly with investors that are willing to pay for my best work. The editorial process takes time, but subscription articles can be posted as quickly as I can write them and upload the file. This is critical for updating investors to a liquidity event.
It also allows me to diversify income streams. With the growth in ad-blocking technologies and widespread use of mobile devices, I want more sources of revenue for my work. This is the only method I’ve found that works. Don’t take my word for it though, consider reviews from my subscribers. I’m still maintaining a perfect 5 star average rating.
Want Recent Examples?
Look at the tickers for RSO, ORC, and WMC. I was able to call a buy rating and two sell ratings. I would consider RSO and ORC homeruns (price movement over 15% within a month) and WMC a solid double (falling 7% to 8% to land within my suggested range for closing shorts). Disclosure: Long RSO.
Full-time investor with a medium-term outlook. Currently holding a position as an analyst at Aquarium Investments, an EU-based company specializing in global capital management services. Historical performance of Aquarium Global Fixed Income Fund, an open-end fund incorporated in Malta, can be found via ticker RFIFNVU:MV. Opinions and analyses published here are mine only and do not necessarily represent the views of the company.
In order to track the news and data I am focusing on, please consider following me on twitter: @AntonTyumin
Thank you for reading my articles. I am always open to any investment-related conversations, so feel free to contact me either here or by email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Finance professional and active investor for over 35 years. No matter how talented and smart you are, there's no substitute for experience in the market. All proceeds from Seeking Alpha are donated to charity.
Disclaimer: Articles and/or comments represent the opinion of the author, who is not a licensed financial advisor. Articles are intended for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be construed as investment advice to any particular individual. Readers should perform their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
I search for companies that are undervalued due to fear that have strong fundamentals in order to buy long, and companies that are overvalued due to greed that have weaknesses such as poor free cash flow or an unviable business model in order to short them. As Warren Buffet recommends: buy fear and sell greed. When I find potential candidates, I research the daylights out of them and only choose the best opportunities. To give you an idea of some the stocks I’ve focused on, in the past I successfully shorted Twitter, GoPro, Garmin, TrueCar, FCX, Wayfair, Pandora and Transocean, and was successfully long Cisco, Expedia, Goodyear Tire, Facebook, Apple, Celgene and Delta. Many of those are no longer good shorts or longs. My current favorite long stock is Iconix (ICON). I was previously a consultant for executives at companies such as Fidelity Investments and Google, including the Vice-president of Sales at Google. Prior to that I owned and operated two retail stores that I sold, and before that I was a journalist. I’ve been investing for 22 years in stocks, bonds, commodities and options. I spend a lot of my free time researching investments and donate half of the gains to charity.
ValueWalk has gained popularity among all circles for its breaking stories on hedge funds, and investigative reports on investments by major funds.
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Continually using 2 decades of market-making experience and learning from past investing mistakes to become a very successful investor in the now and future. Studying Accounting at UCSD to ultimately take the CPA exam. I have learned Fundamental Analysis will always trump Technical Analysis in the long run.
Started my career as an engineer working in several industries including public transportation, construction and consumer goods - these experiences enabled me to really understand how many industries really work. After my MBA, I worked in corporate finance at Anheuser Busch Inbev where I experienced first hand the importance of strategy in value creation.
At Moneda Asset Management, I refined my investment skills working for the best portfolio managers in the asset class and that is where I really learnt to invest....successfully. I covered several industries ranging from Energy, Transportation and Industrials. Currently, I work in new business development at a major telecom in Chile, those, I won`t be writing about the sector to avoid any appearance of conflict of interest.
As I left the asset management industry and have no conflict of interest (except for the telecom space) nor restrictions, I will be writing about my investment ideas on Seeking Alpha. The purpose of my writing would be mainly to keep myself disciplined, but also, to hopefully receive feedback from the Seeking Alpha community and help others on maximizing their portfolio returns.
I will mainly focus on:
1. Sectors that I have covered which are most sectors except financials
2. Regionally, will be looking at Latam with few exceptions, and
3. Will be looking for value in small and mid cap companies (with few exceptions)
About my investment philosophy
1. I don`t buy into the idea of "value" and "growth", as I believe that all good investment ideas have to be based on a value not identified by the market, thus you may find value in both growth and value companies.
2. I base my analysis on fundamentals on the micro and macro levels.
3. Look for a 2-year investment horizon.
4. If my investment declines 20%, I revise my investment thesis. I would only liquidate if my initial thesis is not valid anymore. If it is still valid, I will increase my position.
My name is Phil Mause. I am a Senior Advisor with the Pacific Economics Group, focusing on energy, regulatory and valuation issues. I retired from 40 years of law practice earlier this year. I am a yield oriented investor and in the last two years, I have done reasonably well in junk bonds, BDCs, mortgage REITS, and dividend paying blue chip stocks. As an avocation, I dabble in stand up comedy.
We want to give you the ultimate edge in banking market intelligence. That means timely articles on bank stocks that are under-followed and under-appreciated.
One of our specialities is to look at banks through the eyes of an acquirer. We look past the reality today and view a bank in light of its ultimate potential, what it could be worth to an acquirer, or what it might be worth as an acquirer.
As investors know the banking industry is rapidly consolidating. We went form 14,000 banks in the 1980s to ~6,000 banks today. And regulators have made it clear they would prefer if the US banking industry had closer to 1,500 banks. What happens to the excess banks? They'll be sold and rolled up as management teams retire, as Boards tire of endless regulation, or as these banks are outpaced by technology.
CompleteBankData pulls source data directly and digitally from US regulators meaning we don't introduce the possibility for human transposition error. But data is just a starting point. We've built top in class analytical and research tools that help users save hours of time researching and searching for hard to find data.
Beyond our standard tools we specialize in custom reporting and customized software solutions based on our platform. Please contact us for further details.
Ian worked for Kerrisdale, a New York activist hedge fund, for three years, before moving to Latin America to pursue entrepreneurial opportunities there. His Ian's Insider Corner service provides live chat, model portfolios, full access and updates to his "IMF" portfolio, along with a weekly newsletter which expands on these topics.
Ian is also an associate analyst for Value Investor's Edge. VIE is a top-ranked deep value research service featuring exclusive work from J Mintzmyer, James Catlin, and Ian Bezek.
I've developed personal investing strategies for individual stocks and Asset Allocation:
1) Stocks - Fundamental value investor using Free Cash Flow as defined by Buffett's 1987 shareholder letter. Invest in predictable, undervalued stocks with good management. Buy with a Margin of Safety, Sell at Intrinsic Value. Hold cash when nothing is available at my price. Use the Kelly Formula to determine optimum fraction to invest in each stock which maximizes the amount of money you win over a lifetime of investing.
2) Asset Allocation (for 401-k, small IRA accounts, and available cash) - Use a 'Value-Weighted' asset allocation strategy with inputs of projected returns/historic volatility. Apply the Kelly Formula to determine optimal asset allocation. Rebalance twice a year in April and October.
Store my portfolio - and my brain - on the web at www.healthywealthywiseproject.com
I have been enjoying investing as a hobby for the past decade. My focus is on dividend stocks, especially the higher yielding ones. I also enjoy looking for undervalued stocks.
Originally from MI, but I lived in SW China for six years and currently reside in Naples, FL.
About my investing history:
When my wife and I graduated from college in 2005, our combined income was about $45,000 per year (I made $10 an hour working in a factory and my wife made $12 an hour as a secretary). Not exactly "rich". However, we lived way below our means for the first 3 years of marriage before we had kids and were able to save about $20,000 a year. My wife's employer also matched her 401k contributions. We then moved to China and volunteered at a non-profit and made $1,000 a month for 6 years. Again, not exactly rolling in the doe!
I educated my self in finances (because high school and my BA and MA were not in business or finance) and went to work investing the money in our 401k, IRAs and personal stock account that we had been able to save up during our first few years of marriage. 10 years later, that initial $60,000 we put away has turned into a nice retirement account and we also just paid cash for our first house we bought last year after moving back to the U.S... And that was all from a man and his wife that made simply made a decision to live below our means for a few years realizing that time was on our side. Was it easy seeing our friends go out and get the nice cars and houses right away after college? NO...but now they are in debt up to their ears and we are financially healthy.
Again, I am not from a rich family nor have I ever even held a job that paid a lot of money. So even a family making not very much can do it. I know, I've been there and done it. We still live without cable and a flat screen TV. Not that we can't afford it now. We just choose not to. And our lives are just great without all the "stuff" that people tell you you need. By the way, I can tell you all about "the stuff you think you need" and the pressure to "keep up with the Jones"... because we live in Naples, FL!
Andrew Walker, CFA, is a portfolio manager at Rangeley Capital LLC with a focus on small cap special situations investments. Mr. Walker also contributes to Sifting the World, a value investing forum.
I am currently an analyst at Iron Financial, an investment firm specializing in fixed income alternatives. I previously founded and managed a convertible arbitrage fund and have over 25 years of professional investment experience. I have a BSIOE from the University of Michigan and an MBA from the University of Chicago.