I am a Certified Public Accountant (CPA) (prior FL; current NJ and NY license) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). I have also been a member of the American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) for 18 years (CFF as well). My current title is partner at a national accounting firm. I have audit, tax, and consulting experience with entities in the following sectors: closed-end funds, energy, financials, healthcare, homebuilders, pharmaceuticals, private equity, REITs, and telecoms. I've also have experience with C-corps., estates, high net worth individuals, LLCs, LLPs, S-corps., and trusts. I am an active investor. My investing fundamentals are based on both qualitative and quantitative information. By using my financial / analytical skills, I create specific investing ideas / strategies based on valuations and total returns. The two main sectors I currently provide articles on are mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) and business development companies (BDCs).
Winner of the Summer 2017 PRO Promotion
Previous Projection Articles' Performance vs. Actual Results:
# of Projections Stated Within All Articles: 257
# of Projections PENDING: 0
# of Projections 100% Accurate or Within Range: 239
# of Projections Inaccurate or Outside of Range: 18
Projection “Within Range” Success Rate: 239 / 257 = 93.0%
For a detailed list of every projection I've made at Seeking Alpha (vs. actual results), please send me a personal message ("pm") through the inbox feature (too long to list here).
Disclaimer: I cannot own and will not give an opinion on any investments my current employer has any direct or indirect professional services with (accounting, audit, tax, consulting, etc.). As such, most large-cap stocks are "off the table" regarding my articles. All accounting insight, analysis, and opinions stated within any articles I write (in regards to a specified stock) are entirely from my own personal research and analysis. I believe my articles are both informative and in some cases educational.
NOTE: A growing number of readers/investors, analysts, and representatives of firms have requested to be provided with my "spreadsheets/models" to help better understand certain companies/sectors. My researched data is several files of 100+ spreadsheets/models containing both stocks I write about on S.A. and stocks I choose to not write about on S.A. To reduce the repeated requests to provide such data, these spreadsheets/models are ALL linked together. As such, all current and future requests to "share" ALL my data/models will be politely declined. Thanks for your understanding regarding this matter.
I appreciate my loyal readers and I’ll continue to try to provide high quality, in-depth articles.
Below are the stocks I currently cover (as of May 2018):
Stocks Covered (21 mREITs; 14 BDCs; 8 Other Sectors): ACSF, AGNC, AINV, AI, ANH, ARCC, ARR, BMNM, BXMT (New), CHMI, CMO, CYS, DX, EFC, FSIC, GAIN (New), GBDC, GPMT (New), IVR, MAIN, MCC, MFA, MITT, MO, MTGE, NEWT, NLY, NRZ, NVS, NYMT, OCSI (formerly FSFR), OCSL (formerly FSC), ORC, PHM, PMT, PSEC, PM, SLRC, TCPC (New) TOL, TRP, TWO, and WMC.
Commonly Asked Questions:
Question 1): If you are only paid per article, why make your articles so long / detailed?
- I like to provide the “nuts and bolts” of a company. As such, I strive for my articles to have some sort of “hard to obtain” facts / figures. From this data, I like to fully discuss / analyze specific topics within a particular stock. This mainly consists of a quarterly projection article and a series of articles on a company’s dividend sustainability. In certain instances, I also write articles in regards to specific, material events that occur during a quarter.
- I believe a company’s quarterly results and upcoming dividend declarations are two of the most important topics readers are requesting information on. My analysis takes the “average” article several steps further to allow readers to have access to information that is rare to public viewership.
Question 2): How come you only write 1-2 articles a week (would like to see more)?
- As stated in my profile above, I have a full-time professional career. I write / analyze stocks in my free time. To provide these types of high quality / in-depth articles, I can’t see writing more than 2 articles a week. I believe “quality” should always be a higher priority versus “quantity”.
- As many readers should know by now (if you’ve followed me for a while), I not here for the monetary rewards. If that was the case, I’d write 5+ weekly articles and provide little to no engagement in each article’s comment section. I believe the comments section is as important as the article themselves b/c readers have a wide range of questions in relation to each article or the sector in general.
Question 3): What do you personally gain from writing these articles?
- I am not here trying to promote a company, book, or website. There’s nothing wrong with that. That’s just not what I’m about. I’m here for the “average Joe”.
- When I decided to write these articles, I based it on the notion I am filling a “special niche” per se. Using skills that have been built up over my professional career, my articles usually provide unique information that most writers either a) don’t have the technical expertise to provide or b) don’t bother providing due to the time it takes to compile such data. As such, I believe the S.A. community benefits from my articles. I solely do this b/c it’s a passion of mine and I like helping readers have accurate, reliable data that is not readily available. Yes, I understand this may seem “hard to believe” in this day and age.
Question 4): How come you do not write about more stocks?
- To give readers the level of detail that I provide in my articles, I amass large amounts of data every quarter (or even weekly). As a direct result, a large amount of time is consumed by obtaining / analyzing this data.
- If I expanded the stocks I research, it would most likely take away the quality of other articles I currently am writing about. Again, this gets back to the “quality vs. quantity” metric.
- There is a fairly large range of stocks / investment vehicles I cannot write about / provide an opinion on due to various conflicts of interests (regarding my professional career). This is a topic I take VERY seriously.
An investor with circa 30 years of professional, managerial and financial experience, gathered through both private-individual activities as well as asset management type of roles.
I'm involved in running a leveraged fixed-income, absolute return, hedge fund that aims at providing its investors with double-digit returns, per annum. The fund runs a fast, frequent and furious trading strategy and it focuses on the very short term. Definitely not a Buy & Hold!
I'm also advising and consulting to private individuals, mostly HNWI that I had been serving through many years of working within the private banking, wealth management and asset management arenas. This activity focuses on the long run and it's mostly based on a Buy & Hold strategy.
Risk management is at the very core of our essence and while we normally take LONG-naked positions, we constantly hedge our positions, in order to protect the downside, that usually occurs at times when you least expect that to take place...
I cover all asset-classes though mostly focusing on cash cows and high dividend paying "machines" that may generate high (total) returns: Interest-sensitive, income-generating, instruments, e.g. Bonds, REITs, BDCs, Preferred Shares, MLPs, etc. combined with a variety of high-risk, growth and value stocks.
I believe and invest for the long run but I'm very minded of the short run too. While it's possible to make a massive-quick "kill", here and there, good things usually come in small packages; so do returns. Therefore, I (hope but) don't expect my investments to double in value over a short period of time. I do, however, aim at an annual double-digit returns on average, preferably on an absolute basis, i.e. regardless of markets' returns and directions.
Timing is Everything! While investors can't time the market, I believe that this applies only to the long term. In the short-term (a couple of months) one can and should pick the right moment and the right entry point, based on his subjective-personal preferences, risk aversion and goals. Long-term, strategy/macro, investment decisions can't be timed while short-term, implementation/micro, investment decision, can!
When it comes to investments and trading I believe that the most important virtues are healthy common sense, general wisdom, sufficient research, vast experience, strive for excellence, ongoing willingness to learn, minimum ego, maximum patience, ability to withstand (enormous) pressure/s, strict discipline and a lot of luck!...
Over forty eight years of investing experience. Three Master's degrees. Retired, except for some rental real estate. Serve on three professional boards dealing with property management and regional symphony orchestras. Play in a super regional symphony orchestra and regional professional concert band. On SA to learn, have fun and tweak some egos..especially progressive dimwits.
Disciple of Harry Browne's portfolio system (income, permanent and speculative) with real estate and other income streams. It works.
I am a 1%-er.
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68 years old, investor for 40 years. My credo is Risk Management, so I adjust my portfolio when Risk becomes excessive in either direction. It means I inevitably the miss absolute tops and bottoms but ensures my portfolio is always well balanced. I believe the bankers and heads of financial institutions responsible for the derivatives mess should all have had lengthy prison sentences of the type handed down to Skilling (Enron) and Ebbers (WorldCom). The District Court Judge said of Skilling: "His crimes have imposed on hundreds, if not thousands of victims a life sentence of poverty." And exactly what did the bankers, Goldman Sachs and the others do to have deserved a lesser sentence or even no sentence at all?
Private investor. Bought first stock in 1965. Held on for 20 years, following dad's advice, "The Bulldog Philosophy": "Bite on to something that's got some meat to it and hold on until they chain you down, shoot you in the head, and tear it away from you with your teeth still attached to the carcass." Ahem.
Been through it all: the Crash after LBJ called for Guns and Butter & raised taxes & spending; Nixon campaigning to the right and governing to the left (stocks crash); the fear-mongering claims of the late `60s and `70s that the earth was heading into another Ice Age and the whole planet would soon be frozen, and if that didn't get us, exponential population growth would; the Nifty Fifty Crash of `73-`74 (the first media/big NY House promoted stock con & ensuing blowout);
the first time the media and the government told us the world was running out of oil, and oil prices spiked and stocks tanked; the Carter Years: 20% interest rates, 70% tax rates, & stagflation; the Small Stock Crash in the summer of `83; the October `87 Crash; the `80s real estate crash after "tax reform" and the ensuing S&L Blowout along with 2200 lending institutions busting out over the next 7 years;
the fear-mongering claims beginning in the late `80s and continuing today that the planet is heating up to the point of boiling over (polar ice caps melting; seas overflowing; islands disappearing; parts of the US East Coast under water; massive starvation from heated grounds causing soil erosion; the world running out of food, hundreds of millions starving to death; coral reefs dying; oceans, atmosphere, lakes, & rivers polluted beyond repair; fish and animals dying; Florida gone! England gone!);
Papa Bush's sharp turn to the left: a huge tax increase, the multi-billion-dollar handicap bill that busted thousands of small businesses, and the sex discrimination law, all costing businesses billions and producing the ensuing bad economy and stock turn down (big boon for lawyers, per usual); Papa kicked out of office, in come the Clintons, another 8-year boondoggle;
the Clinton Administration attacks on every business sector: cigs, pharms, techs, banks, etc.; the Asian Contagion; the Y2-K Con (over $650 billion spent for absolutely nothing according to CNN; never mentioned again by the media or the government; they simply moved on to other scary predictions: Saddam Hussein, e.g.); the March 10, 2000 Dotbomb Explosion and tech blood bath aftermath;
15 years of Greenspan's manic interest rate moves; 9-11; the government forcing lending institutions to create the subprime loan (beginning in the `90s under Clinton) and the ensuing Cash-Credit-Crunch Crash of `08-`09; 8 years of constant threats and attacks against Wall St., investors, banks, savers, entrepreneurs, all forms of natural earth fuels (coal, gas, oil), and most business sectors by Obama. Still standing.
Not a broker. Never been one. Not a tout. Never been one.
Do not own or run a hedge fund. Never have. Do not own or run a mutual fund. Never have. Do not receive any type of compensation for bullish or bearish statements. Never have. Never will.
Traded futures for four years in the 1980s, mostly index futures, but some commodities. Quit. Too antzy to sit in front of a screen all day. To heck with the money; would rather be broke than that bored.
Hate charts. Refuse to read one. Don't send or tell me about them. If you do I'll delete you and them from my life. Must therefore dig through financial records and study ratios and try to figure out whether a company is actually doing what it claims. Some really boring stuff, trust me.
Have no idea at any time which way markets are going. Don't ask me. When someone tries to tout me on market direction, I stick my thumbs in my ears. If you write an article predicting market direction, I'll put you on my inexperienced boob list or my sham-artist list, and will not read you anymore until you mature or turn honest, whichever the case.
Occupation: Never had one. A drunkard by nature. Played golf when a child. Poker when I still had the brain of one.
My First Finite Absolute in Stock Investing: Never, ever buy a stock because an emissary from one of the Big New York Houses or Big National Banks touts it. When they upgrade or tout one, stay far away from not only that company—but that entire sector. If you happen to be invested in that company, take a second look at your investment. For it may be time to flee. The reverse is true when they downgrade one: you might want to take a look at buying it. No exceptions!!
First rule I pass on to young investors: Be humble about your investing and trading abilities, for if you do not, markets will eventually make you so.
Second Rule: Learn from your successful elders. For if they are still standing in the investment world when they are past 55 (and are not mere salesmen or book writers or touts or novices) and are still investing, they had to be doing something right—because it is a cruel environment that few survive.
Third Rule: Understand that, as soon as you step onto the investing field, you are dealing with heartless predators who work 24-hours a day to find ways to get your money out of your pockets and into theirs. The only way you can stop them from doing that is to start an account at a conservative brokerage firm that doesn't send you fliers every week telling you how its brilliant employees can make money for you or manage your money for you. Invest your money in companies that have good products, well-established management, good balance sheets, and have proven they can thrive in the good times and survive the hard times—which are bound to come around every few years or so. Put your shares in an account that does not charge you for holding them, and leave them there as long as possible. You're about as safe from predators as you can possibly be, if you follow this rule.
Fourth Rule: Get the idea of making money by trading stocks out of your head. You're not going to be able to do it. If you think you're that good of a trader, trade futures—where you have a tremendous amount of leverage. If you are as good a trader as you think, you can make more money trading futures than you can find a place to put it. Of course, about 98% of futures traders lose money, so don't get your hopes too high on replacing Mexico Slim and the boys on the Forbes 400.
Fifth Rule: Invest; don't trade. Invest; don't save.
I help friends and family with their investments—gratis. I'm sorry to say, however, they all have to have jobs.
My goal is to hit $37,450 in dividends and retire at age 35. Financial independence is complete freedom.
(While not at my goaI I am close enough. I just quit my job and retired this year at age 35 with this portfolio. Currently it generates about $30K a year in income from dividends and should grow dividends in the 8-10% range yearly. I am moving to the Philippines. Good luck to everyone on SA.)
I use multiple strategies to invest:
Strategy 1: Wonderful Businesses (with Huge Cash Flows)
Strategy 2: Capital Intensive - Quality - Cyclical - Below Book Value
Strategy 3: Purely Compounders (http://www.dailywealth.com/194/how-to-join-a-compound-interest-club)
Strategy 4: High Yield Decent Probability of Sustainability
Portfolio: Strategy 1
A man with no options suddenly has all the options in the world:
SHORT 3 VIAB FEB 19 2016 PUTS @ $32.5
Short 6 VIAB JAN 22 2016 PUTS $38.5 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 30 JNJ JAN 2016 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 UVV AUG 21 2015 PUTS @ $40 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 PM AUG 21 2015 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 1 HSY AUG 21 2015 CALL @ $95 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 40 PM DEC 18 2015 PUTS @ $72.5 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 10 PM SEP 18 2015 PUTS @ $75 (EXPIRED WORTHLESS)
Short 1 HSY SEP 18 2015 CALL @ $90 (EXERCISED)
Short 9 WDR MAY 20 2016 PUTS @ 20
Short 5 VIAB SEP 16 2016 PUTS @ 32.5
Portfolio Performance (Time Weighted Rate of Return)
22.09% Annualized Return
VS S&P 500
14.86% Annualized Return
“It’s obvious that if a company generates high returns on capital and reinvests at high returns, it will do well. But this wouldn’t sell books, so there’s a lot of twaddle and fuzzy concepts that have been introduced that don’t add much.” -Charlie Munger
People are always asking me where is the outlook good, but that’s the wrong question…. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable?” -John Templeton
Favorite investing books/letters: Outsiders, 100 Baggers, Any Book Written by Joel Greenblatt, Stocks for the Long Run, The Intelligent Investor, Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letters.
me, I'm ex-military, aircraft mechanic, hydraulics and electrical design engineer with electronic engineering degree. I built cars and industrial equipment from scratch could have a good number of patents if I wanted to go the extra mile. As it stands I would rather have the ideas out of my head and into the world to make it better. I now am BACK at school full time building my education and skills after an additional degree.
I trade both my IRA and Traditional margin/savings account, in 26 months I'm up 35% and 30% in the two accounts. I started out working with an old boss helping him setup and trade on-line with his stocks as a "computer operator." Doing research on companies and products as well as all the doodads. Yes I talked him into APPLE when it was practically a penny stock, (he sold it too soon though:).
I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced self-learning algorithm to analyze, model and predict the stock market. Co-Founder Dr. Lipa Roitman, a scientist, with over 20 years of experience created the market prediction system. The algorithm is based on artificial intelligence, machine learning and incorporates elements of artificial neural networks as well as genetic algorithms to model and predict the flow of money between 8,000 markets from 3-days to a year: stocks, ETF's, world indices, gold, currencies, interest rates, and commodities. The algorithm outputs a predicted trend as a number, which in turn, is used by traders to identify when to enter and exit the market. While forecasts can be used for intra-day trading, the predictability tends to become stronger over longer time-horizons such as the 1-month, 3-month and 1-year forecasts. Visit us at iknowfirst.com
A regular guy (still alive from New York!) who shows how he would manage a model (not actual) portfolio for educational purposes only, my personal finances are my own business and the disclosure statement is only for the portfolio we are discussing (if an asset is held personally, I will note that in the disclosure). I give absolutely no advice, and only offer suggestions on how I could manage a portfolio. My personal portfolio and finances can change at any time, which has nothing to do with the educational value of any article.
The main reason for a subscriber to "Follow" me, especially for the model portfolios (TARP or otherwise), is to glean some knowledge to become a better investor and not simply place bets. Money management is every bit as important as any other aspect of investing, and by following a portfolio and the actions taken, you can gain some insight into a somewhat higher level of investing acumen. There are no requirements, and this is not "rocket science" - it is simply a powerful way for you to put the money you have worked hard for to work even harder for you. My message will be consistent, and my hope by doing this is to share my own experiences, illustrated in the model mock portfolios I build exclusively for Seeking Alpha. Knowledge is power, and many folks shy away from the investing world because that very world makes it more confusing each and every day in an effort to sell you something: stock picks, technical strategies, books, videos, subscriptions with "secret ideas," gadgets, and even snake oil. My promise to you is that my work here will remain free to all of my followers, with the hope of giving to you some of the things that took years for me to learn myself.
Our small-cap hedge fund strategy beat the market by 44 percentage points since its inception 18 months ago. Visit our website to learn how you can do the same. Insider Monkey is a finance website that provides free hedge fund and insider trading data. We believe ordinary investors can beat the market by imitating insiders and best hedge fund managers. They have access to better information and experts than ordinary investors do. Take advantage of the SEC filings where hedge funds and insiders disclose their stock transactions.
Here is our team:
Ms. Krishnamsetty is the Editor of Insider Monkey. Prior to creating Insider Monkey with Dr. Dogan, Ms. Krishnamsetty was Associate Producer at Bloomberg Television. Prior to that, Ms. Krishnamsetty was on the afternoon news team at CNBC. Additionally, Ms. Krishnamsetty reported for NPR and worked as a risk management consultant at Marsh & McLennan. Ms. Krishnamsetty has a M.S. in Journalism from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism.
Insider Monkey’s hybrid evaluation system ...More was created in 2003 by Dr. Ian Dogan. Dr. Dogan has a Ph.D. in financial economics with a specialization in insider trading. Dr. Dogan has provided consulting services to institutional investors and hedge funds, and managed a $200+ million fund using a strategy he developed utilizing insider transactions. Dr. Dogan recently authored the insider trading chapter of soon to be published “The Handbook of Investment Anomalies” by Zacks Investment Research. Insider Monkey will serve the outcome of the methodologies developed by Dr. Dogan to ordinary investors who don’t have access to academic quality research and tools to shape their investments.
For your inquiries please contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org
Led by MIT engineers and Wall Street analysts, Trefis.com helps you understand how a company's products, that you touch, read, or hear about everyday, impact its stock price.
Surprisingly, the founders of Trefis discovered that along with most other people they just did not understand even the seemingly familiar companies around them: Apple, Google, Coca Cola, Walmart, GE, Ford, Gap, and others.
This might include you though you may have invested money in these companies, or may have been working with one of them for years as an employee, or have consulted with them as an expert for a long time.
Consider these questions:
•What % of Apple's stock price is iPhones? (Q: Is it 5%, 25%, or 50%?)
•What % of Dell's stock price is Dell Notebooks?
•If Bing took half the market share from Google Search, what % upside could there be for Microsoft’s stock?
On Trefis you will get answers to questions like above.
You can play with assumptions, or try scenarios, as-well-as ask questions to other users and experts. The platform uses extensive data to show in a single snapshot what drives the value of a company's business.
Trefis makes the same content, data, and tools that are currently available only to professional investors today, accessible to everyone. Importantly, it makes the extensive data/tools easy to use and understand, allowing investors to leverage the platform in their decision making much more efficiently than anything else available.
Trefis is currently used by hundreds of thousands of investors, company employees, and business professionals.
I work as an analyst for a boutique firm based in TN. My investment ideas are research driven, and based on seeking above average returns by employing multiple strategies. I prefer longterm investments, as opposed to short term trading.