Spencer Osborne assesses equities in a data supported realistic manner that is often missing in analysis that the average retail investor receives. His analysis is what investors NEED to hear rather than what they WANT to hear.
He believes that the foundation of an equity price is based on what is probable rather than what is possible, and the trade focuses on possible near term catalysts and news. Smart investing is understanding how the market works and how that market mentality impacts a given equity.
Spencer believes that investors should model their expectations and maintain a critical eye on whether those expectations are being met. If an invesor finds herself making excuses for missing the mark, then they are losing objectivity.
"To be best of breed requires a strong moat and I believe that this is something that can not be found by just looking at the numbers"
You may find my writing style to be a bit different - I heavily prioritize the business model over anything else. There are many businesses with great earnings and dividends histories - how do you know which ones will continue to prosper in the future? We must avoid investing like a stock screener and should carefully filter out companies that look good on paper but in reality posses no moat.
I am most influenced by Peter Lynch's teachings in "One up on Wall Street." I highly recommend this book for all beginning investors. I should point out that there is much more to learn from him than "buy what you know" which even is not ever said in his book. Lynch taught me to focus on understanding the business model and the free cash flow.
I hope to contribute to this stock community and keep investing fun (and profitable!)
We are a two-person team, one works in tech the other in finance. We are passionate about value investing. Upon some successful years managing our portfolio, we started DTF Cap to manage outside capital. Since inception on 6th April 2017, we achieved 20% return. Tipranks also tracks our SA picks. Currently, we are educating ourselves about Shipping and cognitive biases. We appreciate the SA community that engages in meaningful discussions and encouragements. We are here to learn from you all.
Our core portfolio centres around small to mid-cap value stocks in North America. Our primary goal is to avoid permanent capital loss and maintain 15% average return over the next 10 years. We invest in 3 tranches to minimise risk and hold shares for at least a year for our thesis to play out.
Investing has taught us many lessons, and as we write, we reflect on our actions and results, and with no intention of endorsing an investment. Our picks have yielded considerable returns since publication here on SeekingAlpha, for example, FSLR (approximately 105% return), SEDG (120%), FSTR (80%), SBLK (25%), SHIP (10%), PIR (-15%), and GNC (-10%). One highlight was FOSL (80%), which was our most audacious call to buy at the maximum pessimism, to our surprise, it yielded 90% after just 3 weeks since publication. On the other hand, FSTR stood the test of time and yielded 80%+ after 4 articles.
In our portfolio, besides the stocks published above, we allocate heavily in Valeant Pharmaceuticals (NYSE:VRX), and constantly looking out for value opportunities.
Follow us for our most up-to-date analysis.
Thank you for visiting and engaging in our articles. We hope to write analyses that provide different angles and insightful information.
Ben Rabizadeh, founder of the StoryTrading brand, is an avid investor and full-time entrepreneur with over 15 years of experience. He focuses on high-risk, high-return growth opportunities. At StoryTrading, Ben aspires to even the balance of power on Wall Street and give retail a voice and access to management.
Founder of Albright Investment Group, MBA graduate, active investor, and entrepreneur. I have a B.S. in management, and an MBA with a specialization in finance from top tier universities. I've been investing since 2002, and I enjoy writing about companies and topics that interest me. I manage a private long equity and ETF fund, and a secondary hedging/trading portfolio. I also host a very successful research service on Seeking Alpha, Albright Investment Group.
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
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I write on 3 specific subjects: 1) stocks to write call options on (covered call writing), micro-cap underfollowed stocks, and stocks that have a strong possibility of movement due to current headlines. I come from a family of entrepreneurs, coaches and mentors. I have been investing for three decades, and a financial professional for more than half of those years. Analyzing companies as a consultant or for potential acquisition is second nature to me. I was a stock broker (Fortune 500 wirehouse) and a financial advisor (Fortune 500 practice owner) for 13 years. I sold my practice in 2012 and retired to activist investing, venture capital and private equity. I live in the Midwest with my wife, four boys and two dogs.
I'm a professor of philosophy and logic (PhD). I look for areas that tend not to be well-understood by the market to capitalize on information asymmetries. This includes undervalued stocks, but also market volatility and crypto-currencies.
Stone Fox Capital Advisors is a registered investment advisor founded in 2010. The firm offers portfolio management with a focus on opportunistic stocks providing secular growth trends at an affordable value. An emphasis is placed on fundamental analysis though charts are used for timing entry and exit points.
Mark Holder graduated from the University of Tulsa with a double major in accounting & finance. He's been interested in the stock market since college and began managing investments for friends and family more than 20 years ago. Mark has his Series 65 and is also a CPA.
Invest with Stone Fox Capital's model portfolios on Covestor.com as he makes real time trades. Covestor also allows followers to duplicate the model portfolio in their own brokerage accounts. You can find the portfolio and more details here:
Follow Mark on twitter: @stonefoxcapital
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions. I've been trading professionally for about 20 years.
I have a Marketplace service here on Seeking Alpha called Idea Generator that's focused on real-time actionable ideas based on valuation and catalysts. The Idea Generator portfolio has beat the S&P 500 by more than 48% in 28 months.
I also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries thousands of educational articles on finance and markets (in Portuguese).
I trade futures, stocks from the long and short side, forex and options. I trade both discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader, Quantshare and others). I can be reached at paulo.santosATthinkfn.com or followed on Twitter at twitter.com/ThinkFinance999
Ryan Wilday has over 17 years experience trading equities, futures and options. He began trading crypto currencies in 2012, and today he melds his deep knowledge of the crypto currency market with Elliott Wave theory and Fibonacci Pinball. In August 2017, he launched his Crypto Currency Trading service on EWT.
I got my start in finance as a floor clerk at the CBOE. While I have since moved on to other professional endeavors, I have retained my passion for markets. I became a SeekingAlpha contributor because I subscribe to the idea that writing well is conducive to investing in a consistent manner. Plus, writing for only myself just seems... meh.
Corporate finance axioms to live by:
* "GAAP is crap". - Me
* "Post-Mortem Portfolio Theory " - Me
* "WACC is whack! " - Me
* "You mean the Whack & Scholes?"
* "CAPM? More like CRAPM" - Me
This is all in jest, of course. I periodically feel obliged to sacrilege prevailing doctrine to remind myself that no model is reality, except maybe the simulation that runs Elon Musk's universe.
* "You have to understand the fundamentals first" - Aleks Chechkin
* "You want to know about charts? All ships at the bottom of the ocean had charts; look where that got 'em!" - Bill McMahon
* "If you spend more than 13 minutes analyzing economic and market forecasts, you've wasted 10 minutes." - Peter Lynch
* "The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent" - Keynes
* "The time to buy is when blood is in the streets" - Baron Rothschild
* "There is no such thing as a bad investment; just a bad price"
* "The solution for high (low) prices is high (low) prices"
* “You can’t compensate for risk by using a high discount rate.” - attributed to Warren Buffet
* "It is better to be approximately right than precisely wrong"
* "There are two kinds of businesses: The first earns 12 percent, and you can take it out at the end of the year. The second earns 12 percent, but all the excess cash must be reinvested - there's never any cash. It reminds me of the guy who looks at all of his equipment and says, 'There's all of my profit.' We hate that kind of business." - Charlie Munger
* "Buy straw hats in the winter." - Jay Keyworth
* "Professional allocators will not pay hedge fund fees for the execution of strategies that are on the first year curriculum of any Masters of Finance program." - Tammer Kamel
And finally, some epistemology:
* "You can observe a lot by just watching." - Yogi Berra
* "it is the mark of an educated man to look for precision in each class of things just so far as the nature of the subject admits" - Aristotle, Ethics
* "I believe that ideas such as absolute certitude, absolute exactness, final truth, etc. are figments of the imagination which should not be admissible in any field of science... This loosening of thinking seems to me to be the greatest blessing which modern science has given to us. For the belief in a single truth and in being the possessor thereof is the root cause of all evil in the world."
- Max Born
* "It is not what is not, and it is what it is"
- Aristotle, Metaphysics
"pluralitas non ponenda est sine necessitate"
- WIlliam of Occam
"Dispassionate objectivity is itself a passion, for the real and for the truth."
- Abraham Maslow
"The truth is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it, ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is."
- Winston Churchill
"The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie, deliberate, contrived and dishonest, but the myth, persistent, persuasive and unrealistic."
- John F. Kennedy
"Living in the limelight -
The universal dream -
For those who wish to seem -
Those who wish to be -
Must put aside the alienation -
Get on with the fascination -
The real relation -
The underlying theme"
- Rush, Limelight
As a natural resources industry expert and with a passion for investing, I conduct in-depth research to generate valuation-based, actionable investment ideas for the member of The Natural Resources Hub (TNRH), a popular Seeking Alpha Marketplace service which also features top-performing model portfolios and a lively Chat Room.
With a Ph.D. in geosciences, I have worked for decades in research, oil and gas industry, and industry data management. I have been managing family investment accounts through bull and bear markets with great returns. My hands-on industry working experience helps me in uncovering opportunities in the oil and gas, mineral resources, and other areas.
I focus on identifying deep values and undervalued moated businesses with an asymmetrical risk-reward profile. My investing style is contrarian and mostly long.
Find some abridged samples of my specific, valuation-based, actionable investing ideas here: http://seekingalpha.com/author/laurentian-research-lab/articles#regular_articles
Or fully experience TNRH by signing up here: https://seekingalpha.com/author/laurentian-research/research.
Investing.com is a leading financial platform covering global financial markets with real-time data, quotes, charts, financial tools, breaking news and analysis.
With over 75,000 financial instruments, Investing.com offers a free solution for global traders and investors with customized portfolios and personalized alerts.
The website and its apps are available in 30 languages.
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room and member forum focusing on Elliott Wave market analysis with over 3000 members and over 450 money manager clients. Avi emphasizes a comprehensive reading of charts and wave counts that is free of personal bias or predisposition.
Avi is an accountant and a lawyer by training. His education background includes his graduating college with dual accounting and economics majors, and he then passed all four parts of the CPA exam at once right after he graduated college. He then earned his Juris Doctorate in an advanced two and a half year program at the St. John’s School of Law in New York, where he graduated cum laude, and in the top 5% of his class. He then went onto the NYU School of Law for his masters of law in taxation (LL.M.).
Before retiring from his legal career, Avi was a partner and National Director at a major national firm. During his legal career, he spearheaded a number of acquisition transactions worth hundreds of millions to billions of dollars in value. So, clearly, Mr. Gilburt has a detailed understanding how businesses work and are valued.
Yet, when it came to learning how to accurately analyze the financial markets, Avi had to unlearn everything he learned in economics in order to maintain on the correct side of the market the great majority of the time. In fact, once he came to the realization that economics and geopolitics fail to assist in understanding how the market works, it allowed him to view financial markets from a more accurate perspective.
For those interested in how Avi went from a successful lawyer and accountant to become the founder of Elliottwavetrader.net, his detailed story is linked here.
Since Avi began providing his analysis to the public, he has made some spectacular market calls which has earned him the reputation of being one of the best technical analysts in the world.
As an example of some of his most notable astounding market calls, in July of 2011, he called for the USD to begin a multi-year rally from the 74 region to an ideal target of 103.53. In January of 2017, the DXY struck 103.82 and began a pullback expected by Avi.
As another example of one of his astounding calls, Avi called the top in the gold market during its parabolic phase in 2011, with an ideal target of $1,915. As we all know, gold hit a high of $1,921, and pulled back for over 4 years since that time. The night that gold hit its lows in December of 2015, Avi was telling his subscribers that he was on the phone with his broker buying a large order of physical gold, while he had been accumulating individual miner stocks that month, and had just opened the EWT Miners Portfolio to begin buying individual miners stocks due to his expectation of an impending low in the complex.
One of his most shocking calls in the stock market was his call in 2015 for the S&P500 to rally from the 1800SPX region to the 2600SPX region, whereas it would coincide with a “global melt-up” in many other assets. Moreover, he was banging on the table in November of 2016 that we were about to enter the most powerful phase of the rally to 2600SPX, and he strongly noted that it did not matter who won the 2016 election in the US, despite many believing that the market would “crash” if Trump would win the election. This was indeed a testament to the accuracy of the Fibonacci Pinball method that Avi developed.
Debra Borchardt is a former Vice President of Bear Stearns where she worked for 15 years before its demise. She held a Series 7 and RIA license. She left Wall Street after getting her Masters degree in Business Journalism from New York University to become a financial reporter. Since then, Debra worked at TheStreet.com for eight years and recently launched the financial cannabis news website Green Market Report. She has covered the cannabis industry for over 5 years and is in demand as a moderator at many cannabis conferences due to her knowledge about the sector.
Passionate about profitable investing! Education: PhD - A Real Value Risk Estimation Model for an Emerging Market Experience: Investment manager at Let it grow investments, Netherlands Assistant professor at the University of applied sciences Amsterdam, Netherlands Data researcher at Bloomberg, London UK
John Lee is an entrepreneur with degrees in economics and engineering from Rice University. Under John’s leadership, Prophecy Development Corp (TSX: PCY, OTC: PRPCD, www.prophecydev.com) raised over $100 million and acquired substantial silver mining projects in Bolivia and coal mining projects in Mongolia. ================ John Lee is a portfolio manager at Mau Capital Management. He is a CFA charter holder and has degrees in Economics and Engineering from Rice University. He previously studied under Mr. James Turk, a renowned authority on the gold market, and is specialized in investing in junior gold and resource companies. Mr. Lee's articles are frequently cited at major resource websites and a esteemed speaker at several major resource conferences.
Ian worked for Kerrisdale, a New York activist hedge fund, for three years, before moving to Latin America to pursue entrepreneurial opportunities there. His Ian's Insider Corner service provides live chat, model portfolios, full access and updates to his "IMF" portfolio, along with a weekly newsletter which expands on these topics.
Ian is also an associate analyst for Value Investor's Edge. VIE is a top-ranked deep value research service featuring exclusive work from J Mintzmyer, James Catlin, and Ian Bezek.
Former financial analyst - CFA (inactive), portfolio manager and research director with over forty years of investment experience. Media credentials/experience includes daily radio commentaries, weekly newspaper columnist and Internet video host. Also a published business/financial markets author.
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My name's Adem Tumerkan - I'm 26 years old. Born contrarian and skeptic. I like the mining sector but I look for macro situations and asymmetric opportunities wherever they are.
My biggest influences are Mark Spitznagel and Nassim Taleb and Ben Graham. Those kind of guys.
Editor-in-Chief of www.Palisade-Research.com |
A Team of Contrarians and Experienced Investors Writing About Macro-Situations, Mining Stocks and Providing Top Market Research on Commodity Trends and Sector Cycles for our Readers. Most importantly, Turning Theory into Actual Practical Advice...
"Just find what you love, and let it kill you. . . " - C. Bukowski
Best tech/finance blogger on TipRanks.
Alex Cho is ranked 7th among all financial bloggers, with a sector focus of technology stocks. The research he publishes captures the long-term growth potential of tech franchises, and market valuation. His research recommendations over the span of five-years has averaged into an annualized return of 19.3% across 392 ratings of which 66% were successful.
Alex Cho has been publishing articles on Seeking Alpha as a contributing author for five-years. Over those five-years he has also published for TheMotleyFool, TheStreet, WhoTrades, Benzinga and Amigobulls. Over his years of publishing, Alex Cho has been an indispensable source of information for an investment minded audience, which is why his lifetime viewership has exceeded ten million in total since 2012, across various media platforms.
Furthermore, he’s frequently cited in various local business journals across the United States, and is frequently tagged with the “in-depth” designation on Google News for his public articles. The quality of his research is well known, and is well-respected which is why he’s frequently cited by other authors, journalists, bloggers and experts.
Alex Cho was a former founding partner of Alexander & Cohen Capital Management, has worked as a consultant for mid-stage tech companies looking to raise capital or form an exit strategy, with the most recent consultation billed to a client that was generating revenue of $10 million+ in the web domain/registrar segment.
Alex Cho is frequently invited to interview members of management at various Fortune 500 tech companies’ due to his outstanding media credentials, and credibility. Furthermore, he frequently attends various tech media events at the request of the event organizers.
Alex Cho has a great relationship with Wall Street and Silicon Valley, as well. In the Venture Capital Space, he has sources that are inclusive of VC Partners, and independent research from PitchBook, Mercury Data, eMarketer, MergermarketGroup, and so forth. Anyone facing the public with investment related material needs quality sources, which should be inclusive of insights from Private Equity and various sell-side institutions and debt rating agencies as well (Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, & Moody’s).
Alex Cho publishes with the support of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley Americas, Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, United Bank of Switzerland AG, Barclays Americas, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Credit Suisse AG, PiperJaffray, Wedbush Securities, Oppenheimer & Co., Nomura Securities, BMO Capital Markets, Raymond James, Pacific Crest, SunTrust, Mizuho Securities, Deutsche Bank and Canaccord Genuity.
Alex Cho attended ASU via the MAPP program with a 3.76 GPA in business-finance. The genius behind Cho has less to do with his academic accomplishments, but rather his ability to navigate, adapt, and improve the quality of his work through all the activities he has engaged in both on and away from Seeking Alpha.
In the past year, Alex Cho has launched a new marketplace service referred to as Cho’s Investment Research. To learn more about this service, or to receive article notifications, be sure sure to subscribe. We provide frequent updates via our Blog Posts, which goes out to our subscribers.
I am an associate professor at the University of Economics in Bratislava, department of Banking and International Finance. I have a Ph.D. academic degree, my dissertation was focused on commodity markets. Commodities and stock markets are also the main focus of my research and publication activitities. I have more than 10 years of investing experiences. My investments mostly focus on small- to mid-cap companies of resource sector, utilities and biotechnologies.