An avid individual value investor seeking to share my perspective and insights on the individual stocks that I hold and/or am following. Currently employed as a financial analyst, my background is strongly rooted in accounting. I hold both my Master’s and Bachelor's in accounting, and have passed the CPA exam. Working briefly at a public accounting firm, I made the transition to the public sector for better work life balance.
As a financial analyst, I perform accounting, financial analysis, and compliance work which generally revolves around debt, investments and cash. While I am comfortable with financial analysis, I am not a financial advisor and investing is not my profession. I only manage my own portfolio which consist mainly of individual stocks and ETFs that I have carefully selected after performing my own due diligence. I am passionate about investing and dedicate a substantial amount of my free time to stock market research and reading up on current trends and valuation techniques. Like many of you, I invest to hopefully meet my goal of providing future financial stability for my family.
Please note that all articles written here are for informational and educational purposes only. I strive to provide depth and insights with each article written, but you must perform your own due diligence before initiating or selling a position in any stock. I am not a financial advisor, and would not be aware of each individual’s risk and other circumstances. That being said, I do hope that my articles are helpful for the purpose of creating discussion, and I am always open to feedback and questions. Thank you for taking the time to read my articles, and please feel free to comment and follow.
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Author of Quantitative Risk & Value and two 4-star Books. Designer of the systemic market risk indicator MTS10. I trade weekly based on various systematic models: value-oriented in stocks, tactical allocation in ETFs, short-volatility in VIX ETPs.
Ph.D. in Computer Science, 2 M.Sc. in Software Engineering and Civil Engineering, extensive experience in software design, consulting, marketing, investing.
I have several weekly services covering various investing styles and objectives. Most of them include the risk indicator MTS10 and a manual with hedging tactics and ETF strategies based on it. You can find below a summary of the services, their investing styles, and the links to subscribe. Click "Send Message" if you want more information.
Quantitative Risk & Value hosted by SeekingAlpha is the cheapest weekly service with MTS10. It also contains a 20-stock dividend model portfolio and lists of value stocks to consider.
Market Neutral Portfolio is my own core portfolio with 25 stocks. It includes MTS10.
VIX Trading Signals is high risk/high reward trading on volatility ETPs. It includes MTS10.
Growth Weekly Portfolio has 10 ETFs (tactical allocation) and 9 stocks (quantitative value) in 5 models. 5 stocks are in overlap with Market Neutral Portfolio. It includes MTS10.
Dividend & Discount CEF Portfolio is for dividend investors interested in the high yields and discounts to NAV in closed-end funds. It doesn't include MTS10.
I am an individual investor and focus on investing in dividend-paying and dividend-growing stocks with a long-term horizon. In addition to a DGI portfolio, I manage and invest in a couple of high-income portfolios as well as some Risk-adjusted Rotation Strategies. I believe "Passive Income" is what makes you 'Financially Free'. My personal goal is to generate at least 50% of my retirement income from dividends and rest from other investments like real-estate (rental) etc. I have been investing for the last 25 years and consider myself an experienced investor. I plan to share my experiences by way of writing two or three articles a month and also share my portfolio strategy.
I am currently long on ABT, ABBV, JNJ, PFE, NVS, NVO, CL, CLX, GIS, UL, NSRGY, PG, MON, ADM, MO, PM, KO, DEO, MCD, WMT, WBA, CVS, LOW, CSCO, MSFT, INTC, T, VZ, VTR, CVX, XOM, VLO, HCP, O, OHI, NNN, STAG, WPC, MAIN, NLY, ARCC, PCI, PDI, PFF, RFI, RNP, UTF, EVT, FFC, HQH, KYN, NMZ, NBB, JPS, JRI, TLT.
I'm a retired IT professional that focused on large scale infrastructure projects. From 2000 - 2012 I was co-owner of an IaaS, SaaS company and understand the value and power of a recurring revenue model when paired with a sticky product. Companies with a recurring revenue model are especially interesting for the reasons that I described above.
My investing philosophy is very simple. I look for changes; social, economic, technological, legal etc that I believe to be inevitable. From there I identify companies that are well positioned to benefit from these changes.
Examples of these are:
1) Axon (formerly Taser) and the acceptance of Body Wearable Cameras
2) Orbcomm - Globalization and the need to track shipments worldwide regardless of location.
3) Sequans - The emergence of the Internet of Things and the clear leadership of LTE Cat-M over other narrow band technologies.
The challenge with this approach is getting the timing right as the pace of acceptance in the marketplace is very unpredictable, however the upside is often quite substantial.
You will see I have published a number of articles on Herbalife. This stock does not fit my investment model but it has captured my interest. I write articles on HLF in an attempt to counterbalance the company spin and misinformation.
Old crusty fart who has been trading stocks for over 40 years. Worked in the industry for Dick Mayo and Jeremy Grantham at GMO until Dick left to start his own hedge fund. I retired at that point. Since then I have managed my own and my family's portfolio on a pretty much full time basis. Areas of interest, deep value, distressed entities, etc. I only invest long. I do not do options. I do not short. I do not do margin. I do equities and bonds. Some interest in CEFs. Most analysis is bottom up and not top down. I post on various stock boards under this name and have done so for over 15 years. I eat what I kill. That is the my only source of income. No stock letters, no advisory services, no manglement (sic) of OPM, no compensation from any exterior source for anything I do or write. My trading assistant is a Blenheim King Charles Cavalier Spaniel similar to the picture I use. And no, the firm does not exist, but you would be amazed at the junk mail I get at times. Some people never get it.
I regard SA and the stock boards I frequent as something of a pot luck supper. If we all bring something, we all eat well. If we all show up and bring nothing, we all starve. The opinions and conclusions I post on these boards can be wrong, have been wrong at times, and will be wrong at times. The person who does me the greatest service is the person who shows me where they are wrong. If I say something that you disagree with please let me know and tell me why. Please also feel free to ask me questions. On the better boards, the questions are usually ones that should be answered. If I do not know the answer, having to find it does me a service.
I may put IMBMSSSA in my disclosures. That stands for I May Buy More, Sell Some, or Sell All. I got tired of typing the whole thing..
PhD in Biology, investing in oligonucleotide therapeutics, especially RNAi and miRNA.
Particular interest in ARWR, ALNY, SLN, DRNA, ARCT, RGLS, MGEN and MDCO (the last because of inclisiran).
Here is a blog from a scientist working in biopharma, which does a good job of describing the various drug modalities (including new ones, like RNAi) and their development:
Nice review article on RNAi, antisense (although the authors tend to describe RNAi as a 'version' of antisense, which I feel is misleading, given the potency and catalytic nature of the Nobel-prize winning dsRNA interference mechanism):
Has 16 years of investment experience. Holds Bachelors Degree in Business and minor in Economics. Holds special interest in options trading and hedging strategies utilizing options. Resides in the USA
The best way to contact Clay is here at SA messaging.
Accounting and finance major that focuses on a variety of investments. Interested in long-term dividend paying stocks and short-term trades. My goal is to trade short-term price discrepancies, while slowing building a dividend paying long-term portfolio.
Part time trader, Changed strategy from long term investor, to day trader, (I'm still young, could digest some risk).
I don't aim to buy at the lowest, neither to sell at the highest, I just aim buy at the low, and sell at the high.
Trading in New York.
Trader of equities and options for over 12 years. Proprietary trading strategy involving options and biotech with a very high win to loss ratio. SMID cap biotech. Passionate about science and cooking.
"Win or lose, everybody gets what they want out of the market. Some people seem to like to lose, so they win by losing money."
Old enough to been around the block a couple of times but young enough to still enjoy the ride. Ex-engineer who believes if he was smart enough to design medical devices he should be smart enough to make money off trading. Remains to be seen.
I'm a computer engineer with a great interest in finance. I'm not a pro, I do it for my family. But I'll share what I know and try to be as helpful as I can.
Here's my portfolio composition as of March 1st 2017.
I own about 10% of my assets in precious metals. As for currencies, I keep about 75% CAD vs 25% USD of my assets. I have about 35% in mutual funds; global small cap, global fixed income and global real estate. These allocations are fully managed by me, but I re-balance twice a year or so. That mutual fund core is insuring sufficient diversification and low correlation to the following US and Canada single stocks.
About another 35% is a trusted core of single stocks, both Canada and US. These positions are generally overweight at about 3% of portfolio. Core positions have a few properties in my portfolio: low turn-over, very long term, low debt, often dividend growers with low payouts, good valuations, good growth, low beta. They are safe and feel safe, and I usually build those position over the years. I consider it core after 2 years of reliable service. A stock can gain my trust by presenting profits. Not much mega caps, mostly small to medium caps. Another property of my core: easy to understand businesses. They wash linen, they sell groceries, they make boxes, they produce wine. As I build confidence and understanding, I allow more exotic positions in core. They manage money, they rent retirement houses, they dig for metals, they patent software, etc.
At the other extreme, I keep a few lottery tickets as satellite positions for about 20% of portfolio total, 0.75% to 1.5% of portfolio each position. More risky or difficult to understand business, more volatile and some signs of stink. Could be reversal plays, could be momentum stocks, can display signs of breaking out. Usually, I rely a little more on technicals than fundamentals there. And I trade. I learn. I make mistakes. I churn. Survival of the fittest.
I always look for dips in my core positions, and I wait for clear signals to buy back (volume, a few moving avg). If I have cash, I use it. If I don't I look at core and I trim large gains. If no gains there, I look at satellites for gains. If no gains, I look at satellites for mistakes, stinkers, unreliable bets. With money, I buy dips in core positions or in-the-middle stocks. In middle stocks are first buys aiming core, or rising satellites gaining confidence and improving.
Hello SA. I'm happy to be a part of this great website. I have been a market watcher for many years, and have been a trader for 6 years back in the late 1980's and early 1990's. I have been a long-term investor since my early teens. I study and apply technical analysis, and I use common sense. I am a student of fundamental analysis, but I have a long way to go. That being said, I am very impressed with the trading style of some of the members here and have successfully incorporated some of their techniques into my toolbox. I hold a diversified portfolio of common stocks and mutual funds. I utilize many strategies at buying and holding long, and I have sold short as a trader and did fairly well with it. I endeavor to see the stock market in various ways. I study the general market outlook, but usually do not try to time the market as I believe that it's nearly impossible. I am holding issues such as Apple, McDonald's, Proctor and Gamble, Chevron, and Coca-Cola long-term.
I began my investment career as a portfolio manager in 1972 with Western Bancorporation in Los Angeles (name changed to First Interstate Bancorp, now part of Wells Fargo). After nine years in banking, I became Vice-President Institutional Bond Sales as Merrill Lynch in San Francisco, with the major West Coast banks as clients,. later at L.F. Rothschild. I then returned to the 'buy' side in 1987 - not long before the crash as an institutional cash management portfolio manager with BAIMCO. In 1990, I joined Wentworth, Hauser, and Violich as cash manager and later as bond manager and co-head of Fixed Income, leaving in 2004 to start my own firm, TBD Capital LLC, which I operated for 10 years, as a registered investment advisor. In 2014, I terminated my RIA registration to focus on consulting and creating a new blog on wine, traderbillonwine.com, published bi-monthly, which will hopefully lead to a book. For the past ten years, over 1,600 posts, I have published my blog daily at traderbill.com, which is dormant at this time. I am currently writing a book, Wine and Passion and have a wine blog: www.traderbillonwine.com