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A regular guy (still alive from New York!) who shows how he would manage a model (not actual) portfolio for educational purposes only, my personal finances are my own business and the disclosure statement is only for the portfolio we are discussing (if an asset is held personally, I will note that in the disclosure). I give absolutely no advice, and only offer suggestions on how I could manage a portfolio. My personal portfolio and finances can change at any time, which has nothing to do with the educational value of any article.
The main reason for a subscriber to "Follow" me, especially for the model portfolios (TARP or otherwise), is to glean some knowledge to become a better investor and not simply place bets. Money management is every bit as important as any other aspect of investing, and by following a portfolio and the actions taken, you can gain some insight into a somewhat higher level of investing acumen. There are no requirements, and this is not "rocket science" - it is simply a powerful way for you to put the money you have worked hard for to work even harder for you. My message will be consistent, and my hope by doing this is to share my own experiences, illustrated in the model mock portfolios I build exclusively for Seeking Alpha. Knowledge is power, and many folks shy away from the investing world because that very world makes it more confusing each and every day in an effort to sell you something: stock picks, technical strategies, books, videos, subscriptions with "secret ideas," gadgets, and even snake oil. My promise to you is that my work here will remain free to all of my followers, with the hope of giving to you some of the things that took years for me to learn myself.
I have been trading max pain type data since 2007 after noting odd trading patterns centered around options expiry. I am a more conservative trader/investor and only take high probability trades. I prefer to know where stocks won’t be rather than guess where they will be. Trading with this mind set gives you 80% plus probability of being correct.
I have always been a stock market enthusiast. My formal training is that of informal. I am self taught, soaking up as much knowledge as can be absorbed. I love the financial industry and would work for free. I am a fundamental investor at heart and like crunching the numbers. I picked up on Max Pain theory and use option data as a main thesis in taking my positions.
In the beginning; when studying Max Pain I was truly amazed at the power it had in pulling or pushing AAPL around. I have seen the stock drop 5% out of nowhere with no news. The only news would be it was the 3rd Friday of the month. I then picked up on hitting the Max Pain strike was about 50/50 odds. Max Pain would give you a tell on what direction AAPL would start heading for expiry. I started to build a strategy from my studies. Using the Max Pain strike is not really tradable, good to know, but not tradable. So I started to study open interest (OI) and its affect on AAPL. Long story short, I have altered the original Max Pain theory and morphed it into what my own studies have concluded. I call this OI/Max Pain, it uses open interest and a range. This way it is tradable as I now have a high probability range. It doesn’t stop there, using OI will tell you so much more. How a stock reacts at each strike depending on the amount of OI is a major tell.
Conclusion: When using open interest you can accomplish multiple things. We can use it for OI/Max Pain when AAPL is stuck in a range and we can use it for catching breakouts, breakdowns, buy and sell points. Enjoy.
I want to give a special thanks to some of my early influences: Turley Muller, Andy Zaky and Jason Schwarz. I thank Philip Elmer-Dewitt for his coverage on AAPL and letting us have a voice, Horace Dediu for his tireless studies and anyone attached to the AAPL community.
Joseph Levy is a Certified Public Accountant in the states of New York and New Jersey. For more than 20 years until 09-1-2000, he was the principal owner of an accounting practice that provided forensic accounting services to the Insurance Industry. After selling the accounting practice on 09-01-2000, Joseph Levy became the General Partner and Portfolio Manager of LLG Equities, LP, which is a hedge fund that specializes in investing in publicly traded micro-cap stocks. Joseph Levy is a Trustee and the Portfolio Manager for the High IntenCity Corp. Pension Plan, which invests primarily in publicly traded mutual funds and ETFs. He is also the Chairman and Treasurer of High IntenCity Corp., which is a privately owned and operated family business.
Email Joseph Levy at email@example.com.