I had my first passbook account in the 1960s, and lost money in the 1987 crash. Subsequently, I have run investor chat rooms and an investing blog. I also am a published author and write a film animation blog at animatedfilmreviews.filminspector.com.
I bought my first Manhattan property in 1993 and also own property in Colorado. I enjoy investing in real estate and writing about it. I invest in income stocks such as REITs and consider that my area of expertise.
Oh, and I was mentioned in "Scam Dogs And Mo-Mo Mamas: Inside the Wild and Woolly World of Internet Stock Trading" (2000), by Wall Street Journal reporter John R. Emshwiller, a good guy. It's about the bad old dot.com days.
The Pendulum blog is an ongoing discussion of portfolio positions, investment ideas and market trends. As an investor I try to use my independence, flexibility and speed to my advantage.
I write three types of articles: (i) stock-specific articles, (ii) analysis of earnings estimates and (iii) overviews of the market that examine different asset classes. I hope you find them interesting and feel free to comment on the articles; I like the feedback. Thanks for reading!
I started thinking about stock prices in terms of a pendulum after reading Howard Marks' investor letters. Marks is the most perceptive investor about the role of investor psychology in the stock market and industry cycles. I always try to incorporate "pendulum thinking" in my analysis, meaning that it is important to think about the intrinsic value of a company as well as how investor psychology is going to drive the stock price to overshoot and undershoot that value.
I am a generalist. I am not an expert in any one sector or asset class. I have found that there is value in listening to generalists as well as experts, but it is important to be able to distinguish between the two. As a generalist, I try to add value by thinking about the relationships between things and comparing various parts of the market. Generalists can be helpful in avoiding tunnel vision and, hopefully, adding some common sense.
I like to establish a long term outlook for a company and then invest using shorter timeframes. I may be bullish on a stock and still sell it if I think it went up too much or if have concerns about the overall market. I don't mind moving to the sidelines and getting back in at a later point and I sometimes prefer to sell before earnings to reduce risk. I may invest in the opposite direction of my long term view if I think the market over-reacted one way or another. I like to hold positions for the long term, but I use stops to cut my losses. There is a difference between a good company and a good stock. Everybody has a different investing style, experience, tax status, risk tolerance, comfort range, etc., so please note that nothing that I write should be used as investment advice.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed here should not be construed as investment advice. This is not tailored to specific investment objectives. Reliance on this information for the purpose of buying the securities to which this information relates may expose a person to significant risk. The information contained in this article is not intended to make any offer, inducement, invitation or commitment to purchase, subscribe to, provide or sell any securities, service or product or to provide any recommendations on which one should rely for financial, securities, investment or other advice or to take any decision. Readers are encouraged to seek individual advice from their personal, financial, legal and other advisers before making any investment or financial decisions or purchasing any financial, securities or investment related service or product.
Information provided, whether charts or any other statements regarding market, real estate or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. Nothing in this article should be interpreted to state or imply that past results are an indication of future performance.
THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED AS TO ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION IN THIS ARTICLE OR ANY LINKED WEBSITE.
Kevin John Bradford Wilbur is the President and Founder of ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST. He is also the Chief Architect of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm, and the Senior Developer of the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST Active Advanced Position and Risk Management Trade Technology and Active Advanced Position and Risk Management Capital Gain Optimization Methodology.
Kevin is a prize-winning Economist (Governor's Fellow) and Financial Physicist with an over 35 year span of experience and awards in Academics, Research, Management, Practice and Trade. Kevin has specialized experience in the Major Market Indexes, Commodities, ETFs, and in derivatives and the derivatives markets.
Kevin received his Masters Degree in Economics from George Mason University, where he also served as the President of the Theta Chapter of Omicron Delta Epsilon, The International Economic Honorary. At GMU, Kevin was awarded The Virginia Graduate Scholarship, and also served prestigiously as a Governor's Fellow in Economics.
Kevin also attended The USDA Graduate School, where also excelling, he focused on Commodity Price and Program Management Techniques in service to US National Interests. With economic security clearances at USDA, Kevin served within the Agricultural Policy Analysis Group at ERS (Economic Research Service) and within Program Administration Divisions at ASCS (Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service). He also served to support CCC (Commodity Credit Corporation) economic forecasts, CCC commodity price discovery and stabilization efforts, and CCC contract awards. While at USDA, Kevin was awarded the Federal Certificate of Merit Service Award for his contributions and service to the National Interest at a time of peak need.
Kevin has served as Founder, President, Senior Market Analyst and Senior Market Strategist of ProtectVEST And AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST, Divisions of Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots, Bradford Market Research and Analytics, KBW Enterprises.*
In forecasting and anticipating the market crash of 2008 and 2009 beforehand in 2007, Kevin enabled prepared parties the prevention of significant equity value loss those years. And his subsequent market forecast of the following March 2009 major market lows proved equally as 'valuable.' (Kevin forecasted and identified the March 10, 2009, 're-entry point' to the day).
In 2010 Kevin went on to successfully forecast and identify the subsequent intermediate-term market top of mid-April enabling high market price level insurance locks. He also forecasted and identified the early September re-entry point later that year, for the re-introduction of powerfully productive full net long and double-long market exposures.
In 2011 Kevin's market forecasts continued with truly remarkable and outstanding results, and his market-timed Alerts guided to an amazing 130 percent annual increase on a Dow 30 Industrials Composite Average Price Equivalency Basis that year!
In 2012 Kevin's market forecasts were even more impressive, with the MDPP Model forecasting over triple the effective returns of 2011! Kevin made and issued pivotal forecasts for the Major Market Large Cap Stock Indexes, the Gold Metals Markets, and the North American Crude Oil Markets (his three select and primary foci) with further outstanding results and success. Interest in Kevin's forecasts have been growing significantly these past years.
And in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 Kevin continued to further the outstanding pace and reach of his valuable and lauded commentary and analysis and his remarkable record of timely and effective market forecasts and alerts now issued globally for the benefit and interests of market scholars, market professionals, and active market enthusiasts alike.
See http://www.echovectorvest.com/services.html OUR RECORD: "Forecasting Prowess And Trade Management Technology Consistent With More Than Doubling The Portfolio Position Value Of The DIA ETF (Dow 30 Industrials) From Mid-2007 to 2009 (Including The 2008-2009 Recessionary Period)! More Than Doubling Again From Early 2009 Through 2010! And More Than Doubling Again In 2011! And More Than Tripling Again In 2012! And Then More Than Tripling Again In 2013! And Then More Than Tripling Again In 2014! And Then More Than Tripling Again In 2015 and 2016!"
FURTHER BIO Kevin attended the College of William and Mary as an undergraduate, earning his Double-Major. As a Senior, he was selected by William and Mary (along with one other undergraduate) to enjoy the privilege of attending class his last semester additionally at the Marshall-Wythe School of Law. Kevin grew up and attended High School in Fairfax County, VA. His formative High School achievements and interests also included a plethora of honor societies, clubs, organizations, and awards. At Commencement Kevin was awarded three (for the first time in the history of his high school) different Senior Graduating Day Highest Honor Awards and Plaques: in Service, in Citizenship, and in Social Studies. Kevin was also a Key Club President, a Letterman and District Medal Event Winner in Track and Field, and also earned the Eagle Scout Award. Kevin remains a member of NESA (The National Eagle Scout Association) to this day.
Kevin is married, and currently lives with his beloved wife and their three children in sunny Florida, USA.
*With ProtectVEST by EchoVectorVEST, Kevin has led the design and engineering of an applied methodology seeking to enhance major market exposed portfolio value security and overall portfolio value performance and return through the application and utilization of specialized derivatives as 'portfolio value insurancing' hedges when also combined with the power of the Motion Dynamics and Precision Pivots Forecast Model and Alert Paradigm and the ProtectVEST and AdvanceVEST By EchoVectorVEST Active Advanced Risk Management Trade Technology and Active Advanced Management Position Value Optimization Method.
AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION MEMBER
OMICRON DELTA EPSILON, THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS HONOR SOCIETY, PAST PRESIDENT THETA CHAPTER
MARKET TECHNICIANS ASSOCIATION AFFILIATE MEMBERSHIP
AUTHOR/CONTRIBUTOR OF ARTICLES PUBLISHED AND FEATURED IN NASDAQ.COM "Official Site Of The Nasdaq Stock Market" CNBC ONLINE "First In Business Worldwide" MARKETWATCH "Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News" MSN MONEY "Investing" YAHOO FINANCE "Business Finance, Stock Market, Quotes, News" SEEKING ALPHA "Stock Market News and Financial News" BULLFAX "Market News and Analysis" STREETINSIDER "If You're Not Inside You're Outside" BIZWAYS "Investment Opportunities And Industry News" FINANCIAL VISUALIZATIONS "Financial Research, Analysis, and Visualization" FINANCE ROUNDTABLE "Market Forecasts and Finance", UNC Chapel Hill ECHOVECTORVEST "Advanced Educational Stock Market Analysis, Forecast, and Alert Website, and Technical Analysis Methodology." YAHOO FINANCE CANADA "Business News, Real Time Stock Quotes, Investing Tools" NEWS NOW UK "Industry, Sector, Commodity, Precious Metal News" THE ECONOMIC TIMES "Business News, Personal Finance, Financial News" FINANCE PONG "Global Financial And Market News" SEEKING ALPHA JAPAN "Overseas Asia" ROYAL METALS GROUP "The Trusted Name In Precious Metals" SHARPS PIXLEY NEWS "Bullion Brokers London Since 1778" A-MARK PRECIOUS METALS "Gold, Silver, Platinum - Charts and Graphs" STERLING INVESTMENT SERVICES "Buy Side Research" GOLD NEWS TODAY "Current Gold Prices And Precious Metals News" GOLD TREND "Intelligent Gold Investing" GOLD PRICE TODAY "Gold News" GOLD RATE 24 "Gold News" INDONESIAN COMPANY "Commodity News" REGATOR "Only The Best Blogs" NEWSBLOGGED "Latest News, Videos, and Live Videos" YAHOO VOICES "General Yahoo Contributors' Network" and many more.
FOR MORE EXTENSIVE PROFILE INFORMATION, AGAIN SEE: http://advancevest.com/kevinjohnbradfordwilbur.html
THE FOLLOWING LINKS TAKE YOU DIRECTLY TO THE PROTECTVEST AND ADVANCEVEST BY ECHOVECTORVEST MDPP PRECISION PIVOTS WEB SITE HOMEPAGE
advancevest.com protectvest.com motiondynamicsandprecisionpivots.com precisionpivots.info echovector.com echovectorpivotpoints.com echovectorvest.com market-pivot.com etfpivots.com optionpivots.com eminipivots.com stock-pivots.com dowpivots.com spypivots.com qqqpivots.com bondpivots.com commoditypivots.com goldpivots.com silverpivots.com oilpivots.com dollarpivots.com currencypivots.com emergingmarketpivots.com _______________________________________________________
Current Newsletters: For current applications of EchoVector Analysis see the following fifteen Market Alpha Newsletters Group Newsletters (free online combined version):
1. "The EchoVector Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at marketinvestornews.com and market-pivots.com "The Market Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
2. "The ETF Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at etftraderweekly.com and etfinvestorweekly.com and etfpivots.com "The ETF Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
3. "The Dow Composite (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at dowpivots.blogspot.com and dowpivots.com "The Dow Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
4. "The S&P 500 Composite (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at spypivots.blogspot.com and spypivots.com "The S&P Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
5. "The Nasdaq 100 Composite (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at marketinvestornews.com and qqqpivots.com and market-pivots.com "The Nasdaq Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
6. "The Gold Metals Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at goldinvestorweekly.com and goldpivots.com "The Gold Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
7. "The Silver Metals Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at silverinvestorweekly.com and silverpivots.com "The Silver Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
8. "The Bond Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at bondpivots.blogspot.com and bondpivots.com "The Bond Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
9. "The Oil Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at oilpivots.blogspot.com and oilpivots.com "The Oil Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
10. "The Dollar (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at dollarpivots.blogspot.com and dollarpivots.com "The Dollar Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
11. "The Commodity Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at commoditypivots.blogspot.com and commoditypivots.com "The Commodity Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
12. "The Currency Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at currencypivots.blogspot.com and currencypivots.com "The Currency Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
13. "The Emerging Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at emergingmarket.blogspot.com and emergingmarketpivots.com "The Emerging Market Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
14. "The Emini Futures Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at eminipivots.com and marketinvestornews.com and market-pivots.com "The E-mini Futures Pivots Forecaster"
15. The Options Market (Price Pivots) Forecaster And Active Advanced Position And Risk Management Newsletter" By The Market Alpha Newsletters Group and By BrightHouse Publishing. Free Online at optionpivots.blogspot.com and optionpivots.com "The Option Pivots Forecaster" Kevin John Bradford Wilbur, Editor
Brad Thomas is a research analyst and he currently writes weekly for Forbes and Seeking Alpha where he maintains research on many publicly-listed REITs. In addition, Thomas is the Editor of the Forbes Real Estate Investor, a monthly subscription-based newsletter. He is on the Advisory Board of NY Residential REIT and he is a shareholder and publisher on TheMaven (MVEN).
Thomas has also been featured in Forbes Magazine, Kiplinger’s, US News & World Report, Money, NPR, Institutional Investor, GlobeStreet, CNN, Newsmax, and Fox. He is the #1 contributing analyst on Seeking Alpha in 2014, 2015, and 2016 (based on page views).
Thomas has co-authored a book, The Intelligent REIT Investor, and is the author of The Trump Factor: Unlocking The Secrets Behind The Trump Empire (available on Amazon).
Thomas received a Bachelor of Science degree in Business/Economics from Presbyterian College and he is also on the Advisory Board of the Donald J. Trump Presidential campaign.
Founder and Director of Gerring Capital Partners.
Publisher of The Universal marketplace service on Seeking Alpha.
Instructor at Ursinus College in the Department of Business and Economics.
Faculty Advisor to the Ursinus College Finance Scholars.
Kate Stalter is the founder of Better Money Decisions, an asset-management firm with offices in Albuquerque and Santa Fe, New Mexico and Scottsdale, Arizona. She is an expert investment columnist for numerous media outlets including Forbes, US News & World Report, Benzinga, TheStreet.com and Morningstar, and is a frequent on podcasts and radio shows, discussing investment topics. Better Money Decisions implements stock-and-bond portfolios using an asset-allocation strategy with funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors. Kate is a Series 65-licensed investment advisor representative, and has a Master's in Business Administration from Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management.
You can follow Kate on Twitter @katestalter and receive her free monthly newsletter at www.katestalter.com
M. Kevin Flynn has held the Chartered Financial Analyst designation since 1992. He is the President of Avalon Asset Management Company, a Registered Investment Adviser, and has worked in the investment industry since 1983.
Avalon's MarketWeek, a weekly newsletter written by Mr. Flynn and covering the stock market, economy and individual stocks has been published continuously since April 2007. For subscription information please send an email to firstname.lastname@example.org
Trader & portfolio manager, from 1975 - 2001. Former head of equity trading at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago. Now a private investor, founder of a nonprofit investor advocacy firm, and private investing coach. It gives me great satisfaction to teach small investors the same skills and strategies that I used with my high net worth clients as a private wealth manager. It may be a cliche, but giving something back to the community is more rewarding to me than helping very rich people get even richer.
Individual investor. Enjoy the comments here even more so than the articles. Always check authors credentials before heeding advice! My goal dividends and growth
MREITS, HI-yeld, equities. cash!
Strongly believe in being diversified-my portfolio's stock exposure is spread evenly across the market and includes a good mix of small, medium, and large companies, as well as a fairly even mix of conservatively priced value stocks and high-flying growth stocks.
I am a military officer in the Republic of Korea with 15+ years of personal investing and trading. I gained my knowledge through family and personal research, and remain a long-term horizon investor. I focus primarily on a buy and hold mentality, often DRIPs, while accumulating cash reserves to use for purchases on stock price dips. My main sector is consumer staples, but I do look for long-term growth stocks and growth stocks bound to become value stocks.
As a note, I use a pen name due to the position I hold in that it would cause tension/friction within my organization to publish here, even as my opinions do not in any way represent those of the Department of Defense.
My name is Miles Hoffman. I spent 20 years in research departments on the buy side, primarily as a technology and insurance analyst at 2 large institutional investment firms. Having a computer programming background, I was an early "quant" (that never found the right home) with a "heretical" belief in technical analysis.
In between these two firms, I worked as a portfolio manager for the Kuwaiti Institute for Social Security ("KISS"), the social security system of Kuwait (which has REAL money to invest, unlike the pyramid scheme of my home country). Initially I managed a convertible bond portfolio and later managed a conventional bond/stock portfolio. In 1991, I found my "15 minutes of fame" in Kuwait when I unsuccessfully tried to avoid being taken hostage by the invading Iraqi army and was instead shot in the process (but that is a different - and long - story).
Being more of a geek than "a marketer", I left the buy side after running into a ceiling: the head man thought marketing was more important than performance in the money mgmt business. Admittedly, when 80%+ of professionals under-perform their index, "marketing" - as in maintaining - clients is very important; however, we doubled our assets under mgmt in 18 mns when the market style swung to our focus and we generated good returns... so "you take Sally and I'll take Sue" (but I'd rather have both!). Now I trade for myself.
Besides investing, I enjoy reading, gardening and any activity around water.
fwiw: I did not renew my CFA in retirement shortly after a Financial Times article about "the money machine" of the CFA Institute, in which the CEO denied the story angle.... and then promptly raised the retired fee from about $25 to at least $100 (it's currently $100. I thought they went to $125 or $150, so they either backed off or I was so pissed at them that I "behaviorally" remember a worse increase).
Thirty five year veteran of the engineering world, with design experience primarily in hard infrastructure such as buildings, roadways, airports, water and sewer, power, and foundations. Currently employed as a project control engineer in the nuclear field, with primary emphasis on cost estimating. Whitewater kayaker and canoer, so risk management is nothing new.
Helix Investment Research was founded in July 2011 by Ivan Deryugin, and focuses on leveraging secular global trends, across a variety of sectors, in order to generate long-term outperformance.
Individual investor focused upon a limited number of diversified stocks. Seeks stocks selling below fair value; favors dividend growth. Advocates fundamental investment analysis, supplemented by the technical charts. Options strategies primarily employed to generate additional income or hedge risk.
I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in my opinion is out of date and there is wisdom in crowds.I've developed a market timing system that determines when it's best to be long, short or on the sidelines, using a number of proprietary indicators based on many time frames. I believe that to have longevity in this field one must find ways to calm the mind and trade from a detached point of view. Emotionless trading will allow you to respond to what's going on right now in the markets, rather than reacting to daily fluctuations.View my personal blog http://zentrader.ca/
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions. I've been trading professionally for about 20 years and also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries thousands of educational articles on finance and the markets. I trade futures, stocks from the long and short side, forex and options. I trade both discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader, Quantshare and others). I can be reached at paulo.santosATthinkfn.com or followed on Twitter at twitter.com/ThinkFinance999
I have retired from a 35 years career in the semiconductor industry. I now have the time to do the deep research necessary for successful investing.
I freely provide investment information for friends and family.
I am a member of MENSA, which means precisely nothing except I wake up in the middle of the night doing pointless math problems in my head:)
FROM INSIDE SILICON VALLEY: Sorting the truth or likely truth from the noise is a key attribute of the successful investor. My commentary is a distillation of some of this effort relative to particular stocks and investment areas. My publishing at this point in time is limited to the blogsphere, Stocktwits as a Tweeter (@RobertinGatos), and Seeking Alpha posts as both an author (one article and trying to find time for more) and frequent commentator. I have no doubt that this truth seeking effort has been a great aid in my own efforts to be a successful high tech stock investor, which now goes back over 30 years.
Professionally, I was an Engineering Manager in two pioneering Silicon Valley high technology companies, Intel and Fairchild Semiconductor. Some will recall that Fairchild was formed by the group that William Shockley, co-inventor of the transistor of Bell Labs fame. had brought together at Shockley Labs to commercialize this device. I joined Fairchild Semiconductor R&D Labs in Palo Alto in 1973. It was at the time affectionately called "Fairchild Tech" due to its propensity to create spinoffs including National Semiconductor, AMD and Intel.
I joined Intel in in 1977 as Manager of their Analytical Lab start up and retired from Intel's senior management ranks in 1998. I joined a startup called Metara as a BOD member and ultimately as VP and Chief Technology Officer. I facilitated the generation of 17 automated mass spectrometry patents and became an expert on analytical technology patents as a result. I retired a second time in 2006 due to the fact that Metara ran out of capital before the first product was fully debugged. Venture caps can be fickle people.
Through out this time, I was surrounded by high tech business activity including management and ultimately startup financing. I stayed familiar with the high tech business press throughout this time and attended relevant Silicon Valley events including many Valley technology investment conferences and shareholder meetings beginning well before the Santa Clara Valley area was called Silicon Valley.
My start as a high tech investor occurred in 1981 when my first Intel stock options became exercisable. I used margin to exercise, buy and hold my Intel stock while I added margin to buy companies like MSFT, CSCO, ORCL, JDSU, SUNW and QCOM from the 80's forward. Needless to say the returns were outstanding. I had the luck of being exposed to long term LEAP call investing by a follow Intel manager and used this technique as additional leverage for most of my tech investments since the very beginning.
I used to love to bet against Merrill Lynch'sTom Kurlak who was known as THE Intel analyst of the time. He would make a negative call on Intel that I knew was way off the mark and use this opportunity for entry into my next set of Intel LEAP calls. That taught me to take advantage of Wall Street whenever possible rather than be their victim.
My original investment specialty was tech stocks however I have expanded my expertise in many key sectors. I follow high tech trends and business activity on a daily basis. I have added Financials to this tracking in particular since the bad behavior of the Investment Banks and now regular Banks (derivatives and lending practices) has led to multiple ugly stock market crashes. Notable examples include the crash of 2008 and the 2000 dot.com bubble with more yet to come, at least in the absence of better regulation.
I am a firm believer in understanding the business model, the business fundamentals and competitive environment for any company that I invest in. I look for competent management and high performance financials that demonstrate a strong possibility of on-going earnings and revenue growth. I read CEO pronouncements with my competence and BS detector on high (for example Ballmer pegs both needles - I'll let you guess which end of the scales). Drilling into a company’s financial fundamentals is a downstream step. Excessive debt is a red flag even if it is for so called good reason -- it limits company margins and business options, and can be representative a poofly performing business segment a company is in. I avoid those kinds of businesses in spite of what may be labeled as strong positive cash flow. Debt leads to sluggish earnings growth and limits company flexibility. It can also lead to ugly surprises, stock dilution for example. Technology company stock buybacks leave me cold. If they cannot make more money by growing their own business with the money, they will flatline or worse.
When the opportunity permits, I try to be ready to buy good companies that I believe have been beaten up inappropriately or are under appreciated (the Tom Kurlak example). I also try to buy companies that I know and understand inside and out or work on getting to there if I invest. Fewer companies,
I have been trading max pain type data since 2007 after noting odd trading patterns centered around options expiry. I am a more conservative trader/investor and only take high probability trades. I prefer to know where stocks won’t be rather than guess where they will be. Trading with this mind set gives you 80% plus probability of being correct.
I have always been a stock market enthusiast. My formal training is that of informal. I am self taught, soaking up as much knowledge as can be absorbed. I love the financial industry and would work for free. I am a fundamental investor at heart and like crunching the numbers. I picked up on Max Pain theory and use option data as a main thesis in taking my positions.
In the beginning; when studying Max Pain I was truly amazed at the power it had in pulling or pushing AAPL around. I have seen the stock drop 5% out of nowhere with no news. The only news would be it was the 3rd Friday of the month. I then picked up on hitting the Max Pain strike was about 50/50 odds. Max Pain would give you a tell on what direction AAPL would start heading for expiry. I started to build a strategy from my studies. Using the Max Pain strike is not really tradable, good to know, but not tradable. So I started to study open interest (OI) and its affect on AAPL. Long story short, I have altered the original Max Pain theory and morphed it into what my own studies have concluded. I call this OI/Max Pain, it uses open interest and a range. This way it is tradable as I now have a high probability range. It doesn’t stop there, using OI will tell you so much more. How a stock reacts at each strike depending on the amount of OI is a major tell.
Conclusion: When using open interest you can accomplish multiple things. We can use it for OI/Max Pain when AAPL is stuck in a range and we can use it for catching breakouts, breakdowns, buy and sell points. Enjoy.
I want to give a special thanks to some of my early influences: Turley Muller, Andy Zaky and Jason Schwarz. I thank Philip Elmer-Dewitt for his coverage on AAPL and letting us have a voice, Horace Dediu for his tireless studies and anyone attached to the AAPL community.
Retired Financial Analyst with an investment plan derived from Charles D. Ellis' book "Winning The Loser's Game". My portfolio is 100% invested in the global capitalization-weighted equity market, which can be purchased through a single Vanguard ETF (ticker:VT). My retirement spending is equal to the dividends received from the portfolio plus other income such as a pension or social security. Focusing on the "steadily" increasing dividend, not the volatile portfolio balance, is how to sleep well using this portfolio. Paste the following link into your browser to view the historical income and portfolio balance of a retiree using this plan.
The following link has a 30 minute video series that explains why I use the cap-weighted global equity market portfolio: http://www.kroijer.com/
In a nutshell, the Winning Formula is to buy the broadest market index fund available whenever you have money to invest, hold it forever, then retire when your annual distributions (dividends) plus other passive income (pension & Social Security) exceeds your spending needs.
Here is a very good online book to read: http://investorsolutions.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Investment-Strategies-for-21st-Century-entire-book.pdf
Follow me and my trades on Twitter @Keddie
Long time private investor of Stocks and Options. I have been trading Stocks for 14 years and Options for 12+ years. I am extremely creative when it comes to my trades and I almost always attempt to keep things leveraged. The one thing I've learned is an investor should always be hedged and never be "Naked" in your trades.
Markos N. Kaminis generated a 23% average annual return on "Strong Buy" stock selections over 5 years and ranked 2nd among a group of 60 analysts in-house as a Senior Equity Analyst over a seven-year period at Standard & Poor's. After proving his value in-house, he was promoted into a special role as an idea generator, supporting the portfolios of institutional clients as well as driving performance within S&P's recommended lists and portfolios. At times, Markos was responsible for up to 10% of the firm's entire "Strong Buy" list and is due a great deal of credit for the group's outstanding performance during his tenure.
Markos followed a group of 30-40 Small and Mid-Cap firms, and was charged with finding new buy and sell candidates across industry sectors. He generated a 23% average annual return over five years on his "Strong Buy" recommendations, and 26% over three years ended 2004. He was ranked 1st of 60 analysts in-house for his "Strong Buy" performance over 4 years (2nd over 5). Markos also authored IPO research and wrote for high-level newsletters, The Outlook, Equity Insights and Emerging Opportunities, as well as for BusinessWeek Online. He represented his firm as an analytical expert commentator for major media, including television, Internet and through quotes and interviews in reputable publications.
Besides predicting the stock market correction of 2015 through a series of prescient reports here in August. (see proof here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3482226-investor-who-predicted-the-stock-market-correction-offers-an-update ), Markos also advised investors to buy stocks at the bottom of the market in mid-February 2016 and again post-Brexit at the trough, and to buy gold in January 2016 before the commodity started its move higher. While not perfect, over the years, Markos has made countless correct market and security calls for his followers, including forecasting the demise of J.C. Penney on the heralded CEO hire's disruptive plans, the bankruptcies of Washington Mutual and Pilgrim's Pride in the $30 and $20s, respectively, as well as the purchase of Facebook in the mid-$20s when it was considered a pariah post its IPO (today it is a market darling). Markos also warned of the real estate market collapse and the financial crisis in the early days of his blogging.
What I personally want you to know about my plans: After witnessing the worst of Wall Street firsthand and having the ideal vision of my childhood career choice corrupted by reality, I almost switched to full-time charity work at age 40 and still have plans for several non-profit endeavors. The future is somewhat unknown, and I am open to employment offers for portfolio management or other ideas. While continuing to publish regularly, I expect to begin work on several book ideas that I believe are important for business, for our nation and for society.
I may put my stock selection skills, earned through blood, sweat and tears, to better use, and to make my own way. I would like to give investors something rare, a dignified partner who can manage money with integrity and a clear conscience about the degree of due diligence behind investment decisions... someone who cares more about your money than your wife. I hope readers will become followers of my column here & at my blog, so that when our numbers are substantial, we might start an investment fund or two.
Prior to his Wall Street career, Mr. Kaminis spent time in the back-office, as a mutual fund accountant, where he managed for a time the work of two men. Before this, from age 11 to age 25, he worked as a carpenter's apprentice and carpenter with his father, in both commercial and residential projects. Mr. Kaminis has an intimate knowledge of the real estate (undergraduate degree in Real Estate and Finance) and construction market, as well as the restaurant industry.
However, as a generalist stock analyst, he showed the ability to learn any and the most complicated of industries in short time - and he gamed every challenge presented to him. Mr. Kaminis earned his MBA at the Katz Graduate School of Business at the University of Pittsburgh, and his BA at Temple University in Philadelphia. However, Markos has been studying the stock market since age 13, when he determined his career path.
He made his first investment at age 16, and funded much of his undergraduate education with the proceeds of his investing success. Mr. Kaminis continues to keep busy forecasting the economic path and securities market activity. Markos is considering the eventual start-up a long/short capital appreciation hedge fund. Such a fund would limit risk through beta reduction, using a diversification strategy targeting sector & industry and long & short position inclusion. At the same time, Markos' theoretical fund would seek maximum capital appreciation through the exploitation of Mr. Kaminis' inherent economic & market discernment gift and proven stock selection skills.
Mr. Kaminis also has a team of a select few analysts, technicians, strategists and economists that he has been impressed by over the years, which he expects to tap for the project when the time is right. Mr. Kaminis welcomes your interest in such a potential forward effort, and looks forward to discussing his plans with those appropriate and within legal constraints.
Markos toys with very early stage entrepreneurial efforts in the testing of certain business models, all of which he intends to tie to a planned non-profit project serving the most helpless among us. The tie will be that the businesses will give employment opportunity to individuals who would otherwise have difficulty finding gainful employment. It will house and heal the homeless, ex-convicts, those completing rehabilitation efforts for drug and other addictions, and others in need of help.
Markos is currently Directing the widely syndicated blog he founded, "Wall Street Greek," and is writing for other well-known publications besides advancing several big ideas. Markos' column is syndicated across sites like the Boston Globe, Kiplinger Magazine, UPI and other reputable newspaper and TV websites, as well as private networks, Amazon Kindle, iPhone and more. In the past, he has written for RealMoney.com, Motley Fool and others.
Requests to research specific companies are welcome, as we serve our readers. You may contact us via this blog's contact info. Mr. Kaminis welcomes you to follow him here at Seeking Alpha, where he is proud to be a long-time contributor to this strong team of writers. He considers the Seeking Alpha team and management close friends, and for you, people worth knowing and following. Visit his site: Wall Street Greek (http://www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com/)
Kim Klaiman is a full time options trader and founder of SteadyOptions.com. He trades mostly non-directional strategies, like pre-earnings strangles and iron condors. Kim likes to trade strategies with negative correlation. He lives in Toronto, Canada. Visit the SteadyOptions.com forum. SteadyOptions offers a combination of a high quality education and actionable trade ideas using variety of Non-Directional option trading strategies for Steady and Consistent Profits. Email: email@example.com Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/SteadyOptions_ SteadyOptions performance: https://steadyoptions.com/performance
Options trader full-time, author, owner of www.kevinmobrien.com, a subscription-based trading service. Born in Chicago, IL. I trade many stocks in the tech, financial, and agricultural sectors. Trade daily with a 5 Technical Indicator Strategy I developed, the Daily Options Trading Strategy (DOTS). Also trade many debit spreads for weekly and earnings-based trades such as Strangles, the Reverse Iron Condor, the Neutral Calendar Spread and also hold long-term call and put options on undervalued stocks and ETF's.
If you are interested in subscribing to the website's Trading Forum, please visit us at www.kevinmobrien.com.
Favorite stocks to trade: CF, GOOG, AAPL, NFLX, BIDU, CMG, PCLN, RIMM, CSCO, IDCC, POT, MOS, MON, SNDK, APA, and many more.
I'm a big Chicago Bears and Blackhawks fan.
I am interested in value investing and focused on long term investing choices. The articles here only meant to discuss my investment choices and to get feedback from other Seeking Alpha members. I don't write or own any investment publications for sale.
Being in my late 40s, I've been investing for 25+ years. I'm not a Professional Advisor or qualified to provide financial advice, but here to learn and express our personal opinions. The last 10 years we changed our strategy to handle our own finances through Dividend Investing. I had lacklustre returns from Mutual Funds and received poor advice from costly Financial Advisers. We're much more successful doing yourself in handling all investment decisions. Focus with Blue-Chip US conservative stocks, we seek some Growth, but looking at stability with a Buy & Hold approach.
Stocks targeted normally have Yields 2+% with a history of dividend increases, offer strong brand recognition, 15+% ROE annually, low PEs and must be simple to understand. I keep our Portfolio small (under 15), so we can place larger bets on the strongest companies. Companies in the same industry are avoided to ensure proper diversification and weighting.
BEN, CSX, CVX, DE, IBM, KMB, KO, MO, NKE and PM.
This simpler and safer selection of stocks reduces risks and increases the possibility of reaching our investment goals. We buy on dips and avoid timing the market and use DRIP to add more shares. Some of our holdings have increased dramatically and will occasionally adjust the weighting. Slow and steady, but nearly always fully vested. We look for long term investments and rarely sell and never use margin. Changes to our portfolio involve adjusting the weighting, business deteriorates or Dividends being reduced/cancelled.
Buy and Hold involving Dividend Investing is our long term strategy.
Early 50's. Recently retired. Steady DCA from salary and reinvest dividends investor since I graduated from college in '81.
Have enjoyed investing, studying about investing, and helping friends with making relatively shrewd financial decisions all my adult life. Grounded in financial common sense from my parents, who's financial prudence was shaped by their living through the Great Depression as children.
There's nothing I enjoy more than some friend telling me (for example) "Thanks so much for convincing us to use a 15 year mortgage and buy an affordable house. We just paid off the mortgage -- we want to give you a case of your favorite beer". Or "Thanks so much for reminding us to stay diversified during the tech bubble. We're fine, but we have friends who say they may NEVER retire as their tech stocks are down 80+%. What kind of dinner would you like?"
I'm a great believer in asset allocation, diversification, and in understanding the risks of your investments, so you can take INTELLIGENT risks.
I do trade a SMALL part of my portfolio actively to earn option premiums and buy on dips, but the large majority is simple asset allocation, patience, and reinvesting dividends. A bonus of this is the opportunity to use low cost and tax efficient funds like Vanguard.
I'm a geek, so I actually enjoy reading the WSJ daily, the "Economist" magazine weekly, and various investment books as the financial landscape evolves and becomes more complex.
Academic background in accounting; MBA/CPA/JD. Headed a corporate pension fund; served as CFO for insurance company; established title/transactional firm; served as REIT CEO; former professor; served on profit and non-profit boards; currently share management responsibilities for hedge fund; compete in professional golf tournaments. Writing background includes various briefs in federal courts, including US Supreme Court. Currently trying to finish a science fiction novel. Trading experience focused on options and portfolio enhancement. Plans to retire from hedge fund as of December 31st. Future activities will include pro bono assistance to individuals and groups in need of retirement guidance. Looks forward to more time for writing and travel.