Precious metals, energy and commodities. Swing trading commodities, and investing in deep value stocks. Sprottmoney.com contributor. Advanced analytics and proprietary indicators for gold and crude oil. Twenty-five years of experience in energy, risk management and financial analysis. BS Mechanical Engineering & MBA Finance.
Passionate about profitable investing!
PhD - A Real Value Risk Estimation Model for an Emerging Market
Investment manager at Let it grow investments, Netherlands
Assistant professor at the University of applied sciences Amsterdam, Netherlands
Data researcher at Bloomberg, London UK
If you’re on my profile page, you probably want to know a little more about me before signing up for the Mortgage REIT Forum. That seems reasonable.
Why is my name hidden?
I see things that are problems in the world and I work to correct them. I shine a light on places where companies don't want anyone looking. A few CEOs have reached out to me because they appreciated the thorough analysis; others have taken great offense because I go against the grain by calling out poor investments. Most analysts simply apply hold ratings or move on to find a different company to discuss. Executives of companies that are performing poorly on a fundamental level don’t want extra attention, so ignoring them is the safer course. Since I choose to highlight those problems, I keep my name off the site. Hiding my name makes it a little more difficult for those companies to try to silence me with nuisance suits.
Why did I pick mortgage REITs?
As I learned the sector, I began building more and more complicated models to estimate the fluctuations in value and performance across different mortgage REITs. I became even more interested as I found certain economic theories, such as efficient market prices, clearly did not apply. The lack of high quality public analysis meant investors were often poorly informed which set the stage for price failures. Economics would suggest that the rewards from this analysis must be the fair compensation for the talent that goes into finding them, but efficient markets still requires that the adjustment be immediate. It is not. Do you want an example? Look at the price movement in Resource Capital Corporation leading up to and following the earnings release (03/14/2017). There was a gap, even the morning of the earnings release, because the other professionals covering them needed time to update their expectations.
How did I build my system?
I was good at math and decent (certainly not great) at excel. I spent a great deal of time theorizing about how things worked and building models to represent that view. Then I would pull historical data from a company and see if my model was correct. If it was, great, I could expand the sample size. If it was wrong, I would look for the reason. I try to nail down as many variables as possible. The result of working long hours and constantly reassessing my beliefs as I tested them against the historical data was a deeper understanding of how the parts actually worked. This is why you may see me criticize analysts that put in a weak effort or try to cut large corners.
What is my view on risk?
There is a world of difference between the ways an investor can generate their returns. The traditional view is to see earning excess returns as compensation for taking on high levels of risk. I believe it is far better to focus on earning returns from catching market failures. These failures happen due to poor liquidity and investors (including analysts) working with incomplete information. I believe that by knowing the individual companies well, the investor can step in when the “risk” is heavily skewed in favor of “returns”. They should hunt for opportunities where there should be sufficient room for positive returns and very low probabilities of any major decline.
That theory guides my investment decision making. I do not try to generate higher returns, I try to generate more consistent returns by reducing the downwards risk. Occasionally that results in exceptionally high returns when something corrects, but it also means I am willing to pass on several decent opportunities because I want the risk/return profile skewed heavily in my favor.
It is also a reason you’ll see me emphasize preferred shares as an investment strategy. Some of these have very stable valuations and strong yields. At the same time, I will also look to sell the shares if I believe they are overvalued. This can be challenging for many buy and hold investors, but it is another way to take advantage of liquidity. I pay less attention to setting up those limit-sell orders on the preferred shares if I have a large cash position already, but if I see several things at attractive prices then I don’t want to stay in a share if I could reallocate the capital to something that is materially more attractive.
The subscription platform allows me to do a few things very well. It allows me to share the research I’m doing for my own investment decision making. It allows me to communicate rapidly with investors that are willing to pay for my best work. The editorial process takes time, but subscription articles can be posted as quickly as I can write them and upload the file. This is critical for updating investors to a liquidity event.
It also allows me to diversify income streams. With the growth in ad-blocking technologies and widespread use of mobile devices, I want more sources of revenue for my work. This is the only method I’ve found that works. Don’t take my word for it though, consider reviews from my subscribers. I’m still maintaining a perfect 5 star average rating.
Want Recent Examples?
Look at the tickers for RSO, ORC, and WMC. I was able to call a buy rating and two sell ratings. I would consider RSO and ORC homeruns (price movement over 15% within a month) and WMC a solid double (falling 7% to 8% to land within my suggested range for closing shorts). Disclosure: Long RSO.
I was born in Finland, raised in France and I have studied in Germany, the UK and the USA. I started managing my own portfolio at 14, founded my first company at 16 and later acquired my first real estate investment at 18. I have experience working in Private Equity Real Estate and therefore tend to mostly focus on REITs, REOCs, and other real asset heavy businesses. I am a CFA Level 2 Candidate and completed my university studies in Real Estate Finance and Investments.
My international background gives me a certain edge over other investors as it provides me a superior understanding of the differences between European and American markets and help me to identify superior opportunities in a broader universe of securities.
Don't hesitate to reach out and connect via LinkedIn.
DISCLAIMER: Jussi Askola is not a Registered Investment Advisor or Financial Planner. The Information in his articles and his comments on SeekingAlpha.com or elsewhere is provided for information purposes only. Do your own research or seek the advice of a qualified professional. You are responsible for your own investment decisions.
Richard J. Parsons is a former banker who writes about banking. His newest book is “Investing in Banks: Strategies and Statistics for Bankers, Directors, and Investors,” published in April 2016 by The Risk Management Association. In this book he examines long-term bank stock performance and identifies specific factors that create and destroy shareholder value. He is also the author of Broke: America’s Banking System, published in 2013. In this book Parsons explains why the U.S. banking system has suffered nearly 3,500 bank failures over the past three decades. Parsons is a frequent contributor to the American Banker and the Risk Management Journal. He teaches the Operational Risk Management course for the Wharton-RMA Advanced Risk Management Program as well as the Advanced Operational Risk Management course for the RMA. The RMA Journal selected Parsons’ article -- “The Next Crisis in Banking: A Talent Crisis?” -- as the first place winner in its 2014 Journalistic Excellence Award. Prior to writing and speaking about the banking industry, Parsons spent more than 31 years at Bank of America where he was an executive vice president and member of the Management Operating Committee. In his last role he chaired the bank’s Operational and Compliance Risk Committee and the Emerging Risk Committee. Parsons has a BA in history from Ohio Wesleyan University and an MBA from the University of Virginia Darden School of Business.
A regular guy (still alive from New York!) who shows how he would manage a model (not actual) portfolio for educational purposes only, my personal finances are my own business and the disclosure statement is only for the portfolio we are discussing. I give absolutely no advise, and only offer suggestions on how I could manage a portfolio.
The main reason for a subscriber to "Follow" me, especially for the model portfolios (TARP or otherwise), is to glean some knowledge to become a better investor and not simply place bets. Money management is every bit as important as any other aspect of investing, and by following a portfolio and the actions taken, you can gain some insight into a somewhat higher level of investing acumen. There are no requirements, and this is not "rocket science" - it is simply a powerful way for you to put the money you have worked hard for to work even harder for you. My message will be consistent, and my hope by doing this is to share my own experiences, illustrated in the model mock portfolios I build exclusively for Seeking Alpha. Knowledge is power, and many folks shy away from the investing world because that very world makes it more confusing each and every day in an effort to sell you something: stock picks, technical strategies, books, videos, subscriptions with "secret ideas," gadgets, and even snake oil. My promise to you is that my work here will remain free to all of my followers, with the hope of giving to you some of the things that took years for me to learn myself.
Retired Pharmacist. Call me Rose. Nose= Knows enough to know I need to keep learning and keeping a great dividend paying nest egg growing upwards. I also enjoy total return, but it is not my primary goal, it just happens to follow when buying great quality companies.
My 85+ stock portfolio is listed here by sector, largest holding by value is listed first. Updated 7/18//2017.
Consumer Defensive (16): PM, KO, GIS, MO, KMB, TGT, DEO, PG, CVS, PEP, SJM, MDLZ, BUD, CL, KHC, HSY -
Consumer Cyclical (8): NKE, MCD, HD, VFC, GPC, SBUX, TSCO,- MAT (hopefully will be sold soon using options)-
Healthcare (8): JNJ, ABBV, PFE. CAH, AMGN, BDX , MDT, BMY, -
Energy (8): XOM, RDS/B , OXY, BP. CVX, VLO, AMLP, mystery stock to be named in the future -
Tech (2): CSCO, ADP -
Industrial(6): BA, CMI, MMM, LMT, UNP, GWW -
Financial (7): MA, V, TROW, NRZ (mREIT), MET -Mystery mREIT & CEF
BDCs (5): NEWT, GAIN , MRCC, HTGC, TPVG
REAL ESTATE or Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) or Equity REITs:
Healthcare (3) : OHI, VTR,SNR -
Misc (13): WPC, DLR, STAG, WPG, SPG, STOR, SKT, KIM, APLE, CLDT, CIO-(new and small), -WPGpH
Telecom (2): VZ and T -
Utility (8): SO, D, XEL, MGEE, WEC, DNP, LNT, CNP -
DNP is a CEF which predominately holds Utilities.
Free pdf Download of the Book by Lowell Miller
"The Single Best Investment"
Capt. Spaulding spent 35 years in the research vineyards of Wall Street, primarily as a financial writer and editor specializing in economics, equities, and technical analysis. During that time, he learned that several adages are well worth keeping in mind. One is, don't buy it if you don't understand it. Another: numbers can, and often do, lie. A third: if something seems too good to be true, it is. And for good measure: don't fight the tape, especially on the downside, because the market knows more than any individual investor does. Capt. Spaulding is retired, and enjoys the challenge of trying to keep his head while those around him are losing theirs.
I have a long history of practical business experience, management and entrepreneurship within the entertainment industries in Asia, until I transitioned towards biotechnology, and healthcare sectors. Investments have included successful businesses, and purchase of a clothing line in the year 2000. I have worked in Hong Kong and England.
Studying these industries at a higher level today has induced clear investment strategies and important economic developments, that as a strategist and business person, I feel are vital to anyone working with trans-national businesses.
My hobby is investing in stocks and options. I manage DivGro, a portfolio of dividend growth stocks created in January 2013. The primary goal of DivGro is to generate a reliable and growing dividend income stream. I use options to boost dividend income, primarily covered calls but also uncovered puts. My blog hosts a live and public spreadsheet with full details of DivGro so that readers can follow my investment journey. I write articles about dividend growth investing, options trading, investment decisions, stock selection, portfolio management, and passive income generation. I generate active income as an effects artist at a well-known animation studio in the Bay Area.
BSEE The Cooper Union, school of engineering 1966 Engineering manager Harris corp. 23 years Software development, Grumman Corp. 10 years Manage my own IRA accounts in retirement for over 24 years with a CAGR of 10.8%
Joe is CEO of Stanford Wealth Management and a retired SVP of Charles Schwab. He served 36 year in active and reserve military service in special operations and the intelligence community. He brings that geopolitical experience and rational systematic perspective to his research and analysis. He is the author of the investment primer "Bringing Home the Gold" and a member of the SA Marketplace.
If you have a $500,000 portfolio ($250,000 for solely mutual funds & ETFs) you may contact Joe for a no-obligation "second opinion" on your current portfolio: email@example.com.
Institutional investment manager authoring on a variety of topics that pique my interest, and could further discourse in this online community. I hold an MBA from the University of Chicago, and have earned the CFA designation.
My articles may contain statements and projections that are forward-looking in nature, and therefore inherently subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions. While my articles focus on generating long-term risk-adjusted returns, investment decisions necessarily involve the risk of loss of principal. Individual investor circumstances vary significantly, and information gleaned from my articles should be applied to your own unique investment situation, objectives, risk tolerance, and investment horizon.
Registered investment advisor, Certified Financial Planner
Neal Frankle is the founder of Wealth Resrouces Group, a wealth management firm in Los Angeles California.
He has authored two books, “Why Smart People Lose A Fortune” and “Money Academy for Couples” He is an expert of wealth creation and preservation, retirement, insurance and credit management. He has written and/or been used as a source for Forbes, Huffington Post, Daily Finance, US News & World Report, Investors Business Daily, Clark Howard and more.
He is also the chief editor for CreditPilgrim.com and MCMHA.org – a resource for life insurance education. Wealth Resources Group manages growth and income strategies using (mostly) ETF funds based on a momentum approach.
Neal has been a Certified Financial Planner since 1994, manages over $100 million for his clients and obtained a BS Degree in Accounting from San Diego State University.
As SA Senior Editor, my task is to make Seeking Alpha the premier destination for financial advisors. I have worked in the FA arena since 1997, and during that time, the New York State Society of CPAs twice awarded its prestigious Excellence in Financial Journalism award to me for a monthly column I wrote on business ethics.
Previously, I reported on international news for Voice of America (where I was awarded a newsroom writing award) and prior to that worked as an editorial assistant at U.S. News and World Report.
I live with my wife and children amidst the verdant and vibrant hills and dales of Jerusalem.
Hoya Capital Real Estate is a Connecticut-based Registered Investment Advisor that focuses on research of the commercial real estate industry, and advisory of well-balanced public real estate equity portfolios.
All of our research is for educational purpose only, always provided free of charge exclusively on Seeking Alpha. Recommendations and commentary are purely theoretical and not intended as investment advice. Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. For investment advice, consult your financial advisor.
Roger Nusbaum is the ETF Strategist for AdvisorShares. This Arizona-based professional has over 25 years of industry experience. He is also a well-known financial commentator covering ETFs, retirement planning and portfolio management for AlphaBaskets.com and at TheStreet.com. We think Roger is particularly insightful on exchange-traded funds, risk management and investing in international markets. Visit Roger's work at Random Roger (http://randomroger.blogspot.com) and AlphaBaskets (http://alphabaskets.com)
Chris DeMuth Jr. is the founder of Rangeley Capital LLC. Rangeley is an investment firm that focuses on event driven, value-oriented investment opportunities. Rangeley Capital and his value investing forum, Sifting the World (StW), search the world for misplaced bets. Rangeley exploits them for its investors and then Mr. DeMuth writes about them on StW.
Consultant in the economics of renewable energy retrofitting - moving energy from liabilities to assets. Passionate student of the business scene, particularly commodities, currently not an active investor. Author, translator, blogger. Trading experience is more commodities than stocks.
My husband and I plan to retire on December 31, 2020 at ages 68 and 59 1/2, respectively. We began focusing on dividend growth investing in 2013 but have been invested in mutual funds for decades. Our current DGI retirement portfolio is comprised of the following 63 DGI stocks: ABBV, ABT, ADM, AMGN, AVA, BBL, BMY, CAH, CBRL, CCP, CLX, COP, CSCO, CVX, D, DEO, DLR, DUK, ED, EMR, EPD, GE, GILD, GIS, GPC, HCP, IBM, JNJ, KHC, KMB, KMI, KO, LMT, LNT, MCD, MMM, MMP, MO, MRK, MSFT, NEE, NOK, O, OHI, OMI, PEP, PFE, PG, PM, SCG, SEP, SO, SYY, T, UL, UPS, UTX, VTR, VZ, WEC, WPC, XEL, and XOM.
In addition, I manage our millennial daughter's dividend growth retirement portfolio of the following 38 stocks: AAPL, ABBV, ABT, ADM, AMGN, BMY, CAH, CBRL, CCP, CSCO, D, DIS, DLR, EMR, GILD, OHI, JNJ, KMB, KO, MCD, MMM, MMP, MSFT, OMI, PEP, PFE, PG, PM, SCG, SO, T, UL, V, VTR, VZ, WEC, WPC, and XOM.
I am a retired professor, a retired investment adviser, and currently a private investor and full-time tennis pro. I bought my first stock in a custodial account in 1958. I am a student of history, particularly military and economic/market history. The intellectual passions of my retirement years have been markets, mathematics, and quantum theory. Recently I have found myself reading book after book on the thoughts and feelings of animals, and I believe they are subtly influencing some of my views. I have a cat I like a lot. I like to travel. I served in Vietnam.
On October 31st, 2014, I retired. Turned in the keys to the company car, gave them my computer and my account lists and joined the ranks of those who "slipped off into the sunset." I never thought in retirement that I would be this busy. It's fun. Time with the grandkids, time to perfect my cooking skills, and time to travel and check off the things on my bucket list. I should have done this a long time ago.
I have worked in the financial service industry for 40 years. My area of expertise is risk management and complex financial products. I have been a frequent speaker, on behalf of many financial firms, to financial professionals across the country.
I have extensive experience in statistics and actuarial science.
Investing for 20 years, emphasizing stock picking for the last ten. Long-only, driven by valuation relative to risk and growth prospects. My contrarian approach works well during periods of volatility, typically trailing market returns during bull runs.
European based private investor, retired portfolio manager for a major institution specializing in asset management. Basic concept is trend following combined with risk/portfolio management. Global top down approach to markets and sectors/themes combined with technically driven bottom up stock selection. Momentum considered as a major factor but needs to be combined with an on going observation of RON (reaction to news). Trying to strictly separate stock selection from market timing as the long term success of a company is not related to the overall market (think MSFT, AAPL, GOOG). Short term market induced price fluctuations can interfere and drive emotional decisions. Therefor one should try to separate market timing from stock selection which means to define a long term core portfolio of stocks and hold on to it in good and bad times and steer risk by increasing / decreasing market exposure with suitable instruments (index futures, ETF etc.)
Four private female investors and one Dachshund.
We've consigned our careers as fund managers to the shredder, as we no longer have confidence that we can grow our clients' money anywhere near approaching the sparkling results that we achieved for them in the past.
Now Heidi and Desiree's investing interests involve global water distribution, agriculture, and timberland, while Clarissa and Helga manage strategies of certain commodities and hard assets.
We're also self-styled asset-manager vigilantes, who will bitch-slap those who take advantage of innocent retirees and other retail investors who have been ground into muesli by the Wall Street machine.
Sleazy RIA's, CFA's and 99% of the rest of financial "helpers" service their clients like Bonny and Clyde serviced banks.
As you can see, we're touchy, emotional, irascible, opinionated, and sometimes inebriated. But we admit that we do love the attention here on SA, so don't stop sending us those bawdy comments, angry criticisms, steamy love letters, veiled death threats, and tempting marriage proposals. Hey, you never know...
Oh, we almost forgot... While our names (Heidi, Helga, Clarissa and Desiree) may or may not be our real names, Schnitzel the Dachshund's name really is "Schnitzel the Dachshund."
As a geo-scientist with 35 year as a professional and executive in oil and gas companies to create value on projects through evaluation and valution analysis. Currently starting a technology driven conventional oil company during times of low cost to ensure each project is economically viable. Especially interested in turning around distressed oil company through technical and financial engineering process.