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Founded in 1990, TrimTabs Investment Research is the leading independent institutional research firm focused on the supply and demand of shares of stock and the money available for investment. Our key premise – which we term Liquidity Theory – is that stock prices are a function of liquidity rather than value. Like the prices of any tradable good, the prices of stocks are driven primarily by supply and demand.
Unlike most quantitative stock-evaluation models, which focus on easily available price, volume, and earnings data, Liquidity Theory insights depend on detailed data on asset flows and how they shift over time. Since data on the supply and demand for stocks is scattered across so many sources, most strategies ignore stock market liquidity altogether.
By maintaining detailed quantitative models that track key areas of market liquidity and changes in the supply and demand for equities and equity-like vehicles, TrimTabs provides our clients with comprehensive real-time analysis of all aspects of equity-market liquidity.
On the supply side, we measure changes in the float of shares by aggregating corporate actions. On the demand side, we track the money moving into and out of the stock market by measuring the flows into and out of mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and hedge funds. To obtain an early edge on future liquidity trends, our Real Time Macro research focuses on real-time measures of consumer income and employment. Follow TrimTabs and Charles Biderman on Twitter, @CharlesBiderman
Now at 89 i'm a former poster on SA..
82 years of trading and 65 owning my own firm..
I've lived through WW2 and other bad situations in countries before I arrived in the US.
And this situation on SA has become something that has no place in the USA ~!
This used to be a great place for open chat and a great place to get valuable views on the market. Now, the site is a commercial crap trap site run by left wing progressive slime ! Nazi~like lowlifes who censor the most bizarre stuff .And, now they just found themselves a survey that hints at their view and sent me a link. #@(^!+*** ( scatological barrage)
Many of you have my personal email addresses and feel free to use them. I will always do my best concerning the market.And, if I don't know about your symbol or subject I will say so..
Pura vida amigos/amigas
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions. I've been trading professionally for about 20 years.
I have a Marketplace service here on Seeking Alpha called Idea Generator that's focused on real-time actionable ideas based on valuation and catalysts. The Idea Generator portfolio has beat the S&P 500 by more than 48% in 28 months.
I also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries thousands of educational articles on finance and markets (in Portuguese).
I trade futures, stocks from the long and short side, forex and options. I trade both discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader, Quantshare and others). I can be reached at paulo.santosATthinkfn.com or followed on Twitter at twitter.com/ThinkFinance999
As Chairman of Guggenheim Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer, Mr. Minerd guides the Firm’s investment strategies and leads its research on global macroeconomics. Prior to joining Guggenheim Partners, Mr. Minerd was a managing director at Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse. He is involved in leadership roles at a number of civically-minded organizations, including Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and Strategic Partners Among Nations.
I run a model fund at Ken Kam's Marketocracy, where they do capital management using the best member mutual fund track records with extensive tabulations of alpha, beta, R-squared, and many other fund management evaluations. Marketocracy Capital Management offers SMA (Separately Managed Accounts) through FOLIOfn Institutional ($100,000 minimum accounts) set up to track the top 15 or so long-term track records (many 12 years plus) of the 30000 or so active members that run models at their site. My fund is one of those top models available for SMAs. My SMA investment fund now has a first year performance with double digit alpha. You can see the fund's performance chart at marketocracy.com (the Turtle Fund - symbol BPMF) and there is one in my profile over at TalkMarkets.
My fund methodology is high diversification, usually running around 40-60 stocks from many different sectors. I rarely weight any position much over 5%. I began at Marketocracy developing an analysis method I've labeled The Fractal Base Flow Model. I've been experimenting with variations of my basic methodology with 4 other funds and a 5th where I try new things. With my first and main model fund BPMF (Bruce Pile's Mutual Fund) I did my basic method for the first 7 years or so with an alpha over 30, then strayed a little into other analysis methods that did not work as well. For the SMA, I am using the methods proven to work well.
Marketocracy is a new way of investing that solves a lot of the problems in the industry. Most hedge funds are dangerous. The sad result of all this danger is that most hedge funds fail. The average life of a hedge fund that makes it past the first year is just 5 years. More than two thirds of all hedge funds that ever existed are now gone. There is the fund of funds option, but the high turnover means that even they must select an all new portfolio of funds about every 5 years. They are complex with large fees.
Imagine a place where you could go to sign up for an account where you could review track records and styles and risk levels of not just one guy, but up to 15 or so, and check on your account signup form how you want to spread your money among these guys. And imagine that all these managers have had to compile top ranked hedge fund performance levels for up to 15 years under the safety level of SEC rules for mutual funds. And imagine you could get all this at roughly cost of a mutual fund. It would be like opening an account and checking the names of Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, or all your favorite hedge fund managers to gang tackle your investment objectives.
Well there is such a place - Marketocracy Capital Management. Here, thousands of people from all walks of life, compete online with virtual funds. If your track record qualifies, you can open a GIPS account for real customer money tracking of your model fund.
My fund is one of those, ticker BPMF, which you can invest alongside with your own SMA account. They buy and sell for you. This can be a regular brokerage account, Roth IRA, or anything that best fits your needs. It's your own bank account with no trust or fraud issues as with hedge funds. To look into this, you can email Ken Kam at email@example.com or phone 1-877-462-4180.
e21: Economic Policies for the 21st Century is a Washington-based center of the nonprofit, nonpartisan Manhattan Institute dedicated to economic research and innovative public policies for the 21st century. Drawing on the expertise of practitioners, policymakers, and academics, we aim to advance free enterprise, fiscal discipline, economic growth, and the rule of law.
Trading Style: I have been trading for 10 years and have studied a variety of trading techniques and strategies. I combine many trading philosophies and combine technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and macro-economic analysis into every trade. I will typically follow the trend of the market if the strategy fits. I mostly trade stocks and some vanilla option strategies to take advantage of favorable risk-reward set-ups. My holding period ranges from a few hours to a few days and, at times, have found myself holding positions for a month or two.
Not much to tell. Born in NY, NY in 1955 and at age 7 my Jewish dad thought I should go with him to the brokerage house. Not tee ball or pop warner football. Such is life. All I know is the market for 49 years and am now retired at 53 ( now 56) and 3 years living in Panama an 5 before in Costa Rica is good. A 26 year old tica wife also is good.
I have national medical insurance for 12 bucks a month in Costa Rica and private coverage in Panama at a great hospital........ Prices are 60 to 70% cheaper than the US and today I paid my yearly car insurance for $ 115.28.......... What more does a current bio need.
Self employed 35 years and opened 5 businesses and sold all 5..
With good internet a news junkie I am. A little Bloomberg; CNBC, Fox an CNN business........ Plus living outside the US gives a clearer picture.
I’m a swing trader of momentum stocks with a holding period of anywhere from a few hours to a few months. I run a number of screens to locate the strongest/weakest stocks out there, using technical analysis to determine my entries and exits. Trying to calculate the intrinsic value of stocks in my opinion is out of date and there is wisdom in crowds.I've developed a market timing system that determines when it's best to be long, short or on the sidelines, using a number of proprietary indicators based on many time frames. I believe that to have longevity in this field one must find ways to calm the mind and trade from a detached point of view. Emotionless trading will allow you to respond to what's going on right now in the markets, rather than reacting to daily fluctuations.View my personal blog http://zentrader.ca/
Dr. John Hussman is the president and principal shareholder of Hussman Econometrics Advisors, the investment advisory firm that manages the Hussman Funds ( http://www.hussmanfunds.com). He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford University, and a Masters degree in education and social policy and a bachelors degree in economics from Northwestern University. Prior to managing the Hussman Funds, Dr. Hussman was a professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan. In the mid-1980's, Dr Hussman worked as an options mathematician for Peters & Company at the Chicago Board of Trade, and in 1988 began publishing the Hussman Econometrics newsletter. Virtually all of Dr. Hussman's liquid assets are invested in the Hussman Funds.
Note: Dr. Hussman is not an active contributor to Seeking Alpha; rather, SA editors excerpt regularly from Dr. Hussman's public commentary.
Erik is the senior market technician for Prometheus Market Insight and has been performing chart analysis since 1995. The software program that he developed to monitor long-term stock market trends has correctly identified 92% of the cyclical turning points in the S&P 500 index since 1940. His Gold Currency Index has predicted every major trend change in the US gold market since its creation in 2005.
I am the founder and director of three companies: Euro Pacific Capital (www.europac.net), a full service, registered broker-dealer and RIA which specializes in foreign securities; Euro Pacific Precious Metals (www.europacmetals.com), a gold & silver coin and bullion dealer; and Euro Pacific Asset Management (www.europacificfunds.com), a fund management company that is building a family of mutual funds based on my economic philosophy.
I am most well-known for accurately and publicly predicting the collapse of the housing and credit markets, the subprime crisis, and the increasing price of gold relative to the US dollar, resulting in the viral YouTube video "Peter Schiff Was Right."
I fly around the country and the world speaking to diverse groups, from academic conferences to Tea Party rallies. I have also appeared regularly on cable news stations since the mid-2000s trying to warn people of the impending economic collapse brought on by destructive fiscal and economic policy in Washington.
To that end, I published my first book, "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," in early 2007, predicting the 2008 economic crisis while the mainstream commentators were saying it was impossible. Then, at the height of the crisis, I released "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets," in which I showed readers how to help protect their finances in turbulent times. I've written updated versions of both Crash Proof and The Little Book since then, talking about how my predictions fared and why the worst of the crash is still ahead of us. I also wrote a book with my brother based on a popular comic book my dad wrote in the '70s. "How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes" is an illustrated fable that starts with three guys on an island and uses allegory to explain exactly how we got into our current mess.
In the 2010 election season, I ran for the US Senate seat of retiring Senator Chris Dodd in my home state of Connecticut in order to bring attention to the mounting problems in this country. While I did not win the seat, my message of fiscal and monetary sanity was brought to a new audience of voters and political leaders.
I've had a regular video blog on YouTube since 2009, called The Schiff Report (www.youtube.com/user/SchiffReport) and, after giving up my long-running Wall Street Unspun podcast, I am now the host of a nightly radio show called The Peter Schiff Show (www.schiffradio.com).
Mr. Hui has been involved in the equity markets since 1980, both on the buy side and the sell side. He is a CFA Charterholder, and has presented numerous papers to quantitative discussion groups (Sample topics include: How Global are Resource Sectors).
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
You can receive custom delivery of all of Mr. Kostohryz's published work on Seeking Alpha, The Street, and other media, as well as exclusive material, by following the link below. It is absolutely free:
You may connect with Mr. Kostohryz via the following social networks:
When connecting, be sure to identify yourself as a Seeking Alpha reader.
Dr. Chris Kacher & Gil Morales run www.VirtueOfSelfishInvesting.com
Our VIX Volatility Model was up as much as +177.03% in 2016. After further debugging and improvements to the algo, it is up almost +15% in 2017 as of 1-13-17
Go here for results: https://www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com/market-timing-results/dr-k-vix-volatility-model/0
In 1995, Dr. Kacher operated one of the first Internet-based stock advisory services. He then went on to generate triple digit percentage returns for six years in a row during the 1995-2000 period before moving to cash for most of the 2000-2002 bear market, one of the worst in history. From 1996-2001, Dr. Kacher served as chief research analyst for William O'Neil + Company, the New York Stock Exchange member firm, institutional research provider, and publisher of Investor's Business Daily newspaper. During this period, William O'Neil hand-picked Dr. Kacher to manage a portion of the firm's proprietary capital, whereupon Dr. Kacher became a top internal portfolio manager at the company. Dr. Kacher received his B.S. in Chemistry and Ph.D. in Nuclear Physics from University of California at Berkeley, where he co-discovered Element 110 on the Periodic Table of Elements and confirmed the existence of Element 106 for which his team named Seaborgium after Dr. Glenn Seaborg, the inventor of plutonium, who supervised Dr. Kacher's work as a doctoral student at UC Berkeley. Musically gifted, Dr. Kacher was classically trained on the piano beginning at age 3, composing his first song at age 5 which he called "Night Fog," and performing as a concert pianist from ages 5 to 12 in high-profile cities in the US and Japan. He released his debut CD comprised of 21 original piano compositions in 2009. He, together with Gil Morales, recently co-authored a number of books including the bestseller "Trade Like An O'Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market", published by John Wiley & Sons.
In the 1996 to 2002 period, Dr. Kacher achieved in his personal account a total return in excess of 18,000%, as verified by KPMG, the Big Four auditor here: http://s3.amazonaws.com/vosi/download/chris-kacher-kpmg-verification-letter.pdf
Dr. Kacher is also currently a principal and Managing Director of MoKa Investors, LLC and Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC, www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com. He has been a frequent guest and commentator on MarketWatch.com, TownHall.com, CBS host Andy Giersher's Portfolio Doctor, and CNN News Radio's Wall Street Shuffle, among other venues.
Mr. Morales began his investment career in 1991 as a stockbroker in the Beverly Hills branch of Merrill Lynch. In 1994 he joined PaineWebber, Inc. where he quickly achieved Chairman's Club status as a top producer. In 1997, William O'Neil personally recruited Mr. Morales to join William O'Neil + Company, Inc. where he spent the next eight years as a Vice-President, internal Portfolio Manager responsible for managing a portion of the firm's proprietary assets, and Manager of the O'Neil Institutional Services group responsible for advising over 500 of the largest and most successful institutional investors in the world, including mutual fund, pension fund, and hedge fund clients. Mr. Morales also co-authored with William J. O'Neil a book on short-selling, "How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short," published by John Wiley & Sons in 2004. In 2004, Mr. Morales was appointed Chief Market Strategist for William O'Neil + Company, Inc. He, together with Chris Kacher, recently co-authored the book, "Trade Like An O'Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market", published by John Wiley & Sons in 2010. He also contributed to the book, "Wiley Trading Guide, Volume II", published in 2011. In the period from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2005, Mr. Morales achieved in his personal account a total return of 10,904.25% as audited by Rothstein Kass & Company, a hedge fund auditing firm . Applying a standard hedge fund 2%/20% fee structure to this return would yield a pro forma return of 5,572.04%, net of fees. Mr. Morales received his B.A. in economics from Stanford University. Mr. Morales is also currently a principal and Managing Director of MoKa Investors, LLC and Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC, www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com. He has been a frequent guest and commentator on Fox Business News, MarketWatch.com, and CNN News Radio's Wall Street Shuffle and Opening Bell shows, among other venues. In 2010, Mr. Morales published "Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple - How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market" (John Wiley & Sons) with his colleague and former O'Neil internal portfolio manager Dr. Chris Kacher.
Managing Director, MoKa Investors, LLC
Author: The Gilmo Report, www.gilmoreport.com
Merrill Lynch, Beverly Hills, CA, 1991-1994. Financial Consultant
PaineWebber, Inc., Century City, CA 1994-1997. Senior Vice President Investments
William O'Neil + Company, Inc., Marina del Rey, CA, 1997-2005. Vice President, Manager of Institutional Services Group, internal proprietary Portfolio Manager, and Chief Market Strategist. Co-author with W.J. O'Neil of "How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short" (Wiley, 2004).
Sierra Capital Investors, Inc., Shingle Springs, CA, 2005-2007. Co-Managing Director and Chief Portoflio Manager
Gil Morales & Company, LLC, Los Angeles, CA. 2007-present. CEO, Author of The Gilmo Report.
MoKa Investors, LLC, Playa del Rey, CA, 2009-present, Co-Managing Director, Co-Principal, co-author of www.VirtueofSelfishInvesting.com. Chief Portfolio Manager.
Virtue of Selfish Investing, LLC, Playa del Rey, CA, 2011- present, Co-Managing Director, Co-Principal
Methodology: setups require certain criteria to be met before trades can be executed, which include weighted statistical studies on several indicators of price, breadth, volume, and sentiment . Amount of risk taken is proportional to how many indicators are aligned. I mainly trade market indexes, to a much lesser extent commodities, currencies, very rarely individual stocks, and always with defined risk.
MBA with a concentration in finance, The State University of New York. BS in management, concentrations in accounting, and finance. Chartered Market Technician candidate (all exams passed). +6 years professional trading experience.
Publishing Schedule for 2013: A long term update will be put out on the first of the month discussing the long term trend and long term indicators. Short term updates will be published on Mondays and Wednesday discussing the short term indicators and price action. A short comment will be published on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Friday's will have a short market update, as well as a full sentiment update and review for the week.
Dr. Chris Martenson is an independent economist and author of a popular website, ChrisMartenson.com. His Crash Course video series explores the intertwining significance of the “three E’s”—the economy, energy, and environment and offers articulate, dynamic insight into the workings of our monetary system.
Chris earned a PhD in neurotoxicology from Duke University, and an MBA from Cornell University. His background as an educator helps him animate complex material with wisdom and humor. A fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, Chris’s work has appeared on PBS and been cited by the Washington Post. He is a contributor to the Huffington Post and FinancialSense.com.
Chris is an accomplished presenter who has offered the Crash Course seminar all over the United States. The online course has been translated into several languages, and been viewed nearly a million times. His website offers ongoing commentary and rigorously factual analysis into financial and energy-related issues and events as they unfold.
Joshua "MauiTrader" Hayes is CEO, President and founder of Big Wave Trading Inc., a Maui, Hawaii-based stock market advisory service. Hayes is a well-respected stock trader who combines fundamentals, technicals, psychology and money management to trade professionally for his personal, family, and friends accounts for 16 years. Hayes also runs BigWaveTrading.com, an online stock market commentary and stock selection service for intermediate-term investment strategies using CANSLIM and other strategies. Hayes is a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com has been a contributor to Telechart as Sir Aloha, Realmoney.com, InvestorsParadise.com, BestWayToInvest.com, iStockAnalyst.com, and StraightStocks.com.
Peter started TF Market Advisors in 2011 as a platform to trade and provide market information. The trading strategies are macro, but the direction and value decisions are based on insights into the credit markets. The firm’s commentary has been gaining respect and Peter has become a recognized source of information on the developments in Europe in particular, but has also been very involved in recommendations on the banking industry and high yield bonds. He has appeared numerous times on Bloomberg TV and radio, and has been quoted in articles in the Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press, and Fox Business News. Many top hedge funds, money managers, and asset allocators have asked to be included on the distribution list.
Peter was a Portfolio Manager at KLS in the fall of 2008 and spring of 2009. He achieved positive performance for the period using a combination of single credit positions, well timed macro trading, and an active trading strategy that developed additional trading revenue around the core credit decisions and enhanced relationships to ensure allocations on investment grade new issues that could perform well. The returns were aided by product choice as much as specific credit decisions because the understanding of bonds, loans, and CDS, and investment grade and high yield, and single name and index, helped maximize returns or minimize downside for any level of risk.
Peter has been involved in all aspects of credit trading. He started his career with Bankers Trust in 1994 in the newly formed Credit Derivatives group. While at Bankers Trust and then Deutsche Bank, Peter ran High Yield Credit Derivatives which included cash, CDS, synthetic CDO’s, total return swaps on leveraged loans, and hybrid CLO’s. During this time he was very involved in the industry groups that developed the CDS product and that deep familiarity with the product helps when trading as the in depth knowledge can spot trading opportunities when markets are volatile or headline driven. He was hired by UBS to build out those businesses there, but over time became involved in the Credit Index Trading. He was a board member of CDS Indexco, which created the CDX suite of indices. He went on to start a successful index trading business at RBS in North America, where during 2007 and early 2008, the business went from nowhere to being profitable and a top 5 liquidity provider.
Peter received his Bachelors of Mathematics degree, Joint Honors Computer Science and Combinatorics and Optimization from the University of Waterloo, where he was a Descartes Fellow and graduated as the all-time leading scorer on the football team. He completed his MBA in Finance and Marketing at Vanderbilt University and was awarded the Matt Wiggington Leadership award for outstanding performance in finance.
Michael Ashton has been a recognized leader in developing the U.S. inflation derivatives market. He traded the first interbank U.S. CPI swaps in 2003 and, as a dealer, was a primary liquidity-provider in that market for two large banks. He represented about one-third of interbank swaps volume during his tenures at those firms. He invented and was the sole market-maker for the CME CPI Futures contract. He has written and spoken extensively about the use of inflation-indexed products for hedging real exposures, and has written more broadly in a commentary format about the rates markets and macroeconomy. Mr. Ashton is currently the managing principal at Enduring Investments LLC. His comments on this site and others are not posted in that role, and no opinions of his should be construed to be recommendations of or to reflect the views of his employer. He recently published "What's Wrong With Money? The Biggest Bubble of All."
Jeff is the President of NewArc Investments Inc., manager of both individual and institutional investments. Jeff is a registered investment advisor, and portfolio manager for NewArc's investment programs. Jeff is a former college professor with a hands-on, real world attitude. His quantitative modeling helped inform state and local officials in Wisconsin for more than a decade. A Public Policy analyst, he taught advanced research methods at the University of Wisconsin, and analyzed many issues related to state tax policy. Jeff began in the financial business as Research Director for trading firm at the Chicago Board Options Exchange. He investigated anomalies in the standard option pricing models, taught classes for beginning options traders, and developed new forecasting techniques. In 1991 he established a general research consultancy, working with professional traders at all of the Chicago financial exchanges. In 1998 he started NewArc Investments, Inc. Jeff has a commitment to the specific needs of individual investors. It is not a one-size-fits all approach, but one that emphasizes the unique circumstances of each client. Jeff also serves on the board of two small technology companies (currently Chairman at one). He is occasionally as an expert witness in legal cases involving financial markets and hedging.