8 Ways to Make Sirius Better 120 comments
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Everyone it seems believes they can run Sirius XM (SIRI) better than its current management team. With that in mind, I’d like to offer up my version.
1. Enough of the special over-priced plug and play radios. The cell phone companies have known this for years. The largest obstacle to gaining new subscribers in any subscription based business is the initial equipment cost. Sirius needs to offer their radios nearly free with an extended prepaid subscription plan. I’m willing to wager that many more subscribers could be gained by providing radios at little cost to the consumer, especially in these recessionary times.
2. Get rid of the crappy advertisers. This seems like a no-brainer to me, but if an ad qualifies as spam in my e-mail, Sirius XM should reject it as well. I do not need a pill to heighten my libido. Take better advertisers and less of them if necessary. Get back to the basics of what people purchase Satellite Radio for.
3. Get Sirius XM to the workplace. Another no-brainer in my opinion. Advertise the heck out of Sirius XM and make it “The Most Listened To Radio At Work. Terrestrial radio battles within itself to get “at work” listeners, because that’s where the largest pool of radio listeners lies. It’s also how Howard Stern became Howard Stern.
4. Offer longer term OEM packages with new cars. Getting Sirius XM free for 3 months, 6 months, or even a year is great. The problem is that most of America has all their available cash tied up in a mortgage and a car payment. Having to shell out even 10 to 20 dollars a month is hard on many Americans. Having Sirius XM included in the sticker price and car payment for the life of the car loan would go a long way towards lowering churn and increasing Satellite Radio’s popularity. Could you imagine having to pay for am/fm 3 months into your new car experience?
5. Be open with wall street analysts. Time and time again, I have listened to conference calls in which analysts ask direct questions and they are avoided. Sirius XM has made a gesture to be more open following the merger, but I have yet to see it. I’m not fond of many analysts, but Mark Wienkes' single-handedly destroying SIRI stock might have been avoided with a little visibility. Analysts are not traders and as such do not like to gamble. None wants to be burned. They like things written in stone.
6. Stop under-promising and over-delivering. You are not Microsoft. Over-promise AND over-deliver should be the company’s goal each and every quarter.
7. Take time to listen to your shareholders. I’m no fan of certain opponents of the company, but I do know many of the problems these people have caused could have been completely avoided by a 15 minute personal meeting, rather than 6 months of legal proceedings.
8. Keep your listeners informed. If this lesson wasn’t learned by the recent channel change fiasco, heads need to roll. Simple ad spots or DJs can inform subscribers better than any e-mail or press release. Remember that you work for us.
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This article has 120 comments:
Now. Having said that. It is a known fact that Mel K. is an old-schooler; a fact that will not be changing anytime soon. I would say the Q3 CC was much better than previous efforts in terms of trying to be more accomodative and transparent, but still left a lot to be desired--still part of a way of doing biz which I believe is driven by Mel. And as said, the man ain't necessarily dying to reinvent himself anytime soon. This company would do well right now, as they are basically clay on a wheel and can be molded in any number of more consumer and shareholder friendly ways IMO, to have a new fresh young new schooler at the helm. But as said, that's not reality.
I do think that though the company somewhat botched the programming consolidation, I think they have started to respond to that by listening to dissatisfied listeners and bringing back some programming. The last two were the hip hop and disco channels, I recall. So whatever. It could also be that this merge stlll has to get settled before it's at the top of its game. And the whole debt/equity mess has been a huge distraction. The hope is as this all gets handled in the next 45 days, they can actually start concentrating on the PRODUCT, which needs attention desperately. As a company, if you don't have f-you metrics, tons of cash, no debt and can basically thumb your nose at the Street/consumers and not be hurt by it, you MUST cater big time to and concentrate on your consumer/product experience and make it the very best it can be...and all that takes is insight and impetus to do so. In the face of all the debt issues right now, Mel and SIRI should be striving for RAVE reviews on the consumer experience side. By creating that dichotomy (great product and happy consumer base amidst troubled financial picture), onlookers will at least see the product is still accepted, thriving and positive, and all that needs to be done is to work out the other side. Creating this perception can only go a very long way for the company.
Best Radio on radio
Save Sirius
F the FCC
Freedom of speak provided by Sirius
I’m not listening to commercials Are You? lol.
My favorite station never fades away.
Howard lives here....
I can listen to Disco can you?
I can listen to (fav station) Can you?
Anyone have any other ideas?
Why doesn't management do this? I would pay for a couple stickers and if it went towards the debit it could go a long way to help, and free advertising to boot.....
Come on management, it’s not that hard, Come up with a catchy slogan.
Remember "where’s the beef" I think most do....
I can be hired to help if needed, Sirius!
Being my investment is currently worthless now
Thanks to the FCC for this mess.
Some call it the Gillette business model. Give the damn hardware away for free or next to nothing and make the $$ on the subs. Come up with a revenue share plan for the radio manufacturers based on the subs that come in from that radio “purchase”. Lastly, this could also lead to manufacturers advertising and hawking satrad equipment because they would ultimately benefit from the subs.
I know the radios that come in new cars are worked into the purchase price, so that model is kind of in place. But, this may be something to consider to tap the market of people (read: LOTS) that aren’t buying a new car anytime soon.
I think putting all their eggs in one basket by using the automotive tie-in as the last great hope is a mistake. Diversify, think outside the box, whatever you want to call it, creative marketing is the only way many companies will survive in these times. Just look at Hyundai, with their “if you lose your job, we’ll take the car back”. That’s innovative thinking!
Number 1 costs money and will increase SAC making FCF more difficult to attain. They already subsidize chip costs and pay rev. share to OEMs for the new subs, and continually pay royalties based on subs for the music. Paying for the radios without getting at least Life Time Subs (maybe) would seem to be an added expense without much up front reward.
Market conditions should be taking care of #2 without the Company going out of its way to remove revenue from "crappy advertisers". As subscribers grow, market share will draw Premium advertisers over time. Lets face it, we all are annoyed by advertising in general that's why we are subscribers, but dumping revenue paying advertisers is not a good business idea unless they are replace with a better deal.
The workplace idea is a good one, but as one poster has already noted, Howard is not for everyone, and neither is Raw Dog and a few others. A watered down version for the workplace might have unintended consequences and turn listeners off to an over advertised, rated G version of SAT RAD just to accommodate the workplace requirements.
Number 4 and the OEM's contracted deals are the area for the most opportunity, and has been discussed before by Tyler Savery. Including SAT RAD into the price of the car, providing a Life Time Membership that then travels with the auto to the new owner might provide added resale value to the car in the secondary Market, offsetting initial added costs to the new car buyer. It would also provide upfront cash that could be accounted for over time based on GAAP methodology.
5 and 6 are more about investor and analyst relations than anything else, effecting short term stock price but having little effect on overall value of the company in my opinion. We all want good solid information before making investment decisions and would like analysts to support those decisions, driving our investments into profitability. This is at best a speculative stock operating in a very difficult environment. When the debt is paid for 2009 and FCF is withing reach, this request for more open definitive estimates of performance and straight forward communications will become a natural next step. The problem to date is that even if they spoke, we as investors wouldn't want to hear what they have to say, as has been evidence already since the merger, IMHO.
It could be argued that 7, shareholder, needs to be broken up into several groups and as I have already said, improving communications at this time would not necessarily have a positive outcome, without raising SP organically. If there isn't anything good to say, they need to say nothing. That should be communication enough until good news happens or bad news must be communicated.
8, is an area where improvements need to be continuously made and Brandon's ideas are as good as any, and many others that are needed to accomplish Excellent Customer Service. To date the company is sorely lacking in this area.
And this,
Sirius filed another supplemental to their Share Lending Agreement. Canyon Capital is now the holder of 14.67 M shares for the purpose of selling short, against XM 7% Bonds originally issued and offered back on July 28th. Filed on a 424B7 prospectus supplemental. These shares were already included in the outstanding float so nothing new there. What is interesting is that XM Bond Debt is still being issued as originally stated: <.. from time to time ..> by the underwriters. From what I can tell Canyon Capital is an Arbitrage Dealer Broker and the shares are to be used for hedging purposes against the Notes. I guess the half full outcome here is that the Notes are still attractive and buyers are participating, and the half empty is that their are another 14.67M shares in the hands of note holders for the purpose of legally shorting the stock. Just thought I'd pass that along.
That one totally got lost (last Wed.). Just another player of the same situation. And...per usual we get little but legal jargon as to the "why" of Canyon's involvement...and we get all the "mays" "could at any time in the futures" and "possibly already haves" we can handle...lol. Frustrating.
I don't know...on your point about saying nothing...I know your meaning but it seems like that approach hasn't gotten them (or us) very far as we sit @ .13. Obviously we know (or think we know) the issues that can move the SP, but I think the company's shroud has helped its own SP deterioration. Since I'm not privy to what goes on behind their closed doors, I'm hard pressed to be able to suggest to what degree exactly communication on the financial side could or should be altered, but just a feeling I get overall. You may be entirely right though on the other hand.
As far as maximizing communcation to consumers...totally agree. Needs work.
Well, the remaining 2 1/2% GS Notes are due exactly 23 biz days from now. From there it's 10 biz days until March 1. We watch. We wait.
A random thought...
I was thinking recently about NAB and how it would entirely make sense that they could have been "a" force in bringing this SP down (and keeping it down). It's a powerful group. If I found out it were true, I wouldn't be surprised at all.
PS: Why don’t we all start talking about the needed improvements like this article states instead of the bashing & name calling. Are we progressive or crying over spilt milk. This article is the types of thing that we should be focusing on. Not who can be wittier @ bashing each other!
My observation about not saying anything if it isn't good is that communicating the continuing efforts without conclusions are not what investors want to hear. I am not disagreeing with the fact that silence is frustrating but, it is also telling. To me it means efforts continue but, without success at this point.
As you say though we will know soon enough on the debt for February and the 4Q. I must say that I am a little surprised that if the numbers for the 4Q were an upside surprise that they would have leaked out that "Good News" for investor's sake. We shall see.......
I will say this. Some guy today said 9T on the sidelines. Where he got that exact number I have no idea. But as I have said, sooner or later, if any of that money is going to make money in equities in '09, they are going to have to start getting in. Personally, I don't know what people are waiting for. Lower Q4 reports that even my 90 y/o grandmother knows and could care less about? It's already baked in! People making a big deal out of Alcoa yesterday when the whole world already knew aluminum was down? What's the big surprise!? All you have to look at is the carnage of the last 4 months to know there are some great deals out here at these levels and just be looking short-term. For god sakes, even if we did retrack to 7500, marketwide, those individual equity prices are not much different from those you see today. Just a lot of malaise and "I'm not going in until the next guy does." I say wtf??
Well, clearly, we're seeing a manipulation of the overall market. That's why we're NOT at 7500 right now. Think of how easy it would have been in the last 6 - 8 days to tank this market (300 pts a day). For some reason, their not doing it. Maybe because it is too easy? Then their game would be too transparent...
Anyway. 3mo. Libor 1.09. Not long 'til below 1%. Could happen this week. If I remember correctly 1.11 was the lowest I've ever seen previously. Great for my maturing ARM this year...
Whatever, maybe it's just a delay offset that will catch up soon. Not everything is in perfect sync in timing. Still love their excuses though. Hey, they gotta say something...or they don't exist! lol.
hear ya on low enough...and the mystery digits courtesy of The Fed (central bank) lol. We can't call it CB here because, the people would revolt!
I'd be very happy with the move you predict maybe through March. Make some gains, then stay liquid with short-term plays. After SIRI reconciles, I'm going 100% day trading (or over a night or two tops). No more getting washed out here. Tight stops and quick ins and outs...Gotta protect. This year and beyond.
This most recent "robbing" of the middle class' retirement funds and home equity, will probably cost a generation of retail investors their nerve from taking Risk again. Without taking risk they are condemning themselves to a mediocre retirement with more years in the work force. Some might say that will be better for the general economy with fewer Baby Boomers on the public doles, and others unfortunately, have already decided that for them. With this most recent debacle and abuse of fiduciary responsibility in managing their funds, those who control power and wealth in this country have already killed the dream for so many, one more time. The sheeples of the world really only have one inevitable future... to make wool and then become lamb chops.
MM's are holding more cash than ever before, risk adverse, but required to do something with that cash. I agree with s162's take that the money will flow soon but, not until there has been a complete flushing of the middle class. The continued government sponsored recoveries to our Banking System, combined with the soon to be provided Universal Health Care plan, and the already in place Homeland Security / Patriot Act, keeping us all safe, will have this "Model of Democracy" (sarcastic) running like a well oiled machine in no time........ Where you decide to invest really won't matter much..... so long as your wearing green and marching in place to the sound of the new administration.......
Brandons elitist comment about the million dollar overdraw is really enough said. "Can I get 6 dimes on the over?" "I only have 100 large in my checking, things are getting tight." He sounds like a gangster, or maybe a bookie, or Jay-Z....go buy a portion of the Nets! In all seriousness can he really recover from such a comment?
Disappointed American.....great idea about the bumber stickers! I think I posted something along those lines a few months ago. Its really a good idea and cheap! Send me a SIRI sticker or anyone of the good ideas you had. Cheap advertising! Send a sticker to each subscriber or new subscriber, not hard. "Is your signal clear? Mine is crystal clear, get Sirius!
Sorry about the profanity, my coffee is doing all the talking! I am still a little fired up about the Millon dollar comment.
Long Steelers/short Ray Lewis.....that guy is an animal....I would like to see him and Brandon do one Oklahoma drill. lol.
Long mid level seats at the AFC Championship...please come though!
Short Ed I'm covering everyone in the 2ndary by myself Reed. This guy makes me want to run the ball 35-45 times.
On Jan 13 11:51 AM cos1000 wrote:
> Although I find Brandon's article to be a succinct list of ideas,
> I don't see how they are new or will generate new revenue against
> the associated costs of implementing them.
>
> Number 1 costs money and will increase SAC making FCF more difficult
> to attain. They already subsidize chip costs and pay rev. share to
> OEMs for the new subs, and continually pay royalties based on subs
> for the music. Paying for the radios without getting at least Life
> Time Subs (maybe) would seem to be an added expense without much
> up front reward.
>
> Market conditions should be taking care of #2 without the Company
> going out of its way to remove revenue from "crappy advertisers".
> As subscribers grow, market share will draw Premium advertisers over
> time. Lets face it, we all are annoyed by advertising in general
> that's why we are subscribers, but dumping revenue paying advertisers
> is not a good business idea unless they are replace with a better
> deal.
>
> The workplace idea is a good one, but as one poster has already noted,
> Howard is not for everyone, and neither is Raw Dog and a few others.
> A watered down version for the workplace might have unintended consequences
> and turn listeners off to an over advertised, rated G version of
> SAT RAD just to accommodate the workplace requirements.
>
> Number 4 and the OEM's contracted deals are the area for the most
> opportunity, and has been discussed before by Tyler Savery. Including
> SAT RAD into the price of the car, providing a Life Time Membership
> that then travels with the auto to the new owner might provide added
> resale value to the car in the secondary Market, offsetting initial
> added costs to the new car buyer. It would also provide upfront cash
> that could be accounted for over time based on GAAP methodology.
>
>
> 5 and 6 are more about investor and analyst relations than anything
> else, effecting short term stock price but having little effect on
> overall value of the company in my opinion. We all want good solid
> information before making investment decisions and would like analysts
> to support those decisions, driving our investments into profitability.
> This is at best a speculative stock operating in a very difficult
> environment. When the debt is paid for 2009 and FCF is withing reach,
> this request for more open definitive estimates of performance and
> straight forward communications will become a natural next step.
> The problem to date is that even if they spoke, we as investors wouldn't
> want to hear what they have to say, as has been evidence already
> since the merger, IMHO.
>
> It could be argued that 7, shareholder, needs to be broken up into
> several groups and as I have already said, improving communications
> at this time would not necessarily have a positive outcome, without
> raising SP organically. If there isn't anything good to say, they
> need to say nothing. That should be communication enough until good
> news happens or bad news must be communicated.
>
> 8, is an area where improvements need to be continuously made and
> Brandon's ideas are as good as any, and many others that are needed
> to accomplish Excellent Customer Service. To date the company is
> sorely lacking in this area.
>
> And this,
>
> Sirius filed another supplemental to their Share Lending Agreement.
> Canyon Capital is now the holder of 14.67 M shares for the purpose
> of selling short, against XM 7% Bonds originally issued and offered
> back on July 28th. Filed on a 424B7 prospectus supplemental. These
> shares were already included in the outstanding float so nothing
> new there. What is interesting is that XM Bond Debt is still being
> issued as originally stated: <.. from time to time ..> by the underwriters.
> From what I can tell Canyon Capital is an Arbitrage Dealer Broker
> and the shares are to be used for hedging purposes against the Notes.
> I guess the half full outcome here is that the Notes are still attractive
> and buyers are participating, and the half empty is that their are
> another 14.67M shares in the hands of note holders for the purpose
> of legally shorting the stock. Just thought I'd pass that along.
.....Sirius needs to offer their radios nearly free with an extended prepaid subscription plan..........
Nowhere in there is Brandon saying that the equipment will be paid for over time. He is promoting the idea of up front subscriptions paid over a longer period of time being "nearly free" to the new subscriber. My point is that this is not a way to increase profit margins if all your doing is increasing SAC. The longer term contracts are already sold at a discount, impacting ARPU. The revenue has to be appropriated according to GAAP requirements, so a portion of the prepaid is Restricted Cash, but the expense of the equipment hits the Company all at once or would have to be allocated over time also. Even a lifetime subscription would require a full payment up front from your son or any other teenager before a free radio would be given. If not what jeopardy is their for the customer if he fails to pay his subscription over time.
Cell phones have a monthly fee and a contract over time that has a very stiff penalty for early cancellation. This is not an apples to apples comparison. In the SAT Rad case, the subscription is prepaid and long term without any other monthly fees and he's giving away a nearly free radio at the company's expense.
Funny you said WhiteWater! Last time Dem was in White house Whitewater was also a topic!!!
On Jan 13 03:46 PM Relmor wrote:
>Come on SL62...LIBOR is low enough...Banks that remain are getting >healthy due to a massive dose of electroic digits appearing on their >screen courtesy of their central banks..Market will go up from now(in >general till marchish)...News that got out wasnt enough to drop the >markets(they are supporting it at critical junctures(end of >day...manipulation of futures..) by now, with Obama coming so soon >now, its not going to happen. Markets are a green a go, till the cliff t>hats coming. It will be like whitewater rafting with a 1000 foot drop >coming....Just jump before you go over...
I have only been following Dry Bulk for a little over 8 months now and NM and DSX have been my main focus. 163888 gave me the back ground on these companies and their excellent performance. I have looked at others and EXM is among the companies that I looked at. Their balance sheet has been made very confusing with their acquisition of Quintanna in the first part of 2008. I am also concerned that this acquisition was made when all of the shippers were booming and rates were on the rise. NM and DSX have much cleaner balance sheets, with DSX already giving up its dividend. NM cut its in half and who knows if they will be able to sustain it through 2009. EXM doubled its dividend to .40 after the acquisition and paid the same out again in Nov 2009. With all of the debt taken on and lower demand, I don't see them maintaining this going forward. Check out the 6K SEC filing for EXM dated 11/6/08 and you can see numbers through 9/30/08. Good economies will float all boats, but companies with high debt to service get really hurt here. Maybe 163888 can give his take on this because I know he is more experienced here.
Its up, just thought I would let you know...Today is trying to drive people to open new shorts...New shorts opened today will try to convince themselves they are right, as the market crawls back to 8900 again...
As for getting Sirius into the workplace, aren't they already there? I listen to Sirius all day, every day in at work already through their online streaming applet. Don't people already know they can do this?
Yeah, the OEM contracts have the biggest opportunity to add value to the buyer and revenue for lifetime subs at the time of purchase. I just wanted to credit Tyler with the idea because he talked about this to increase take rates and reduce churn over time several months ago. As new OEM contracts come up for negotiation finding a way to get the lifetime subscription payment rolled into the car payment would be great. I think that the problem with the deals with OEMs now is that the radio's are included in the car's price, with chip sets subsidized by Sirius XM for SAT RAD inclusion into the dash, but the subscription is not and is Sirius' responsibility to sell or renew. XM had a slightly different deal with GM but it was also more expensive. Hopefully as these partnerships mature, they will find a way for the OEMs to integrate the lifetime memberships into the sale of the SAT RAD equipped cars. The subs could then move with the hardware when the auto was resold adding to the value of the car in the secondary market.
Relmor, Killerkaul
Good buys...... now lets hope for some good news.......
Would you please let us all know when you are going to buy more shares so that we can sell and pick up more after the price drops! BTW How's the dog holding up?
As far as shippers EXM is to connected to the DBI because like DRYS they dont have to many long term contracts. They also have loads of debt compared to DSX. EXM has a better "price to book" but DSX has a better "price to earnings". The problem for EXM right now is with the debt they have and no long term contracts and the DBI being where it is, they can be seen as a risk compared to DSX. That is one of many reasons DSX is holding up better then most of the rest.
long Mike Tomlin, short Joe Flacco
Go Steelers
Personally I think, and have said it before, there is much more opportunity in chasing second owner or non subscribers driving around with equipment already installed. The hardware with chipsets have already been paid for by Sirius XM, but have never paid off in the form of sub revenue. Turn these radios on from time to time and advertise 2 years for 1 year or whatever combination the company comes up with. SAC costs go down and FCF is enhanced.
The aftermarket business is as straight forward as it can be now. Buy a radio that fits your needs, sign up for a subscription that fits your budget, and finance it any way you like. Credit cards are already in place for those that don't want to pay it all up front. Consumers choice. My point is that there is more room for the company to entice with cheaper subs on a variety of packages then their is for them to give hardware away. They are not a manufacturing company, they are a media content company.
Item 3.02 Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities.
We have agreed to issue an aggregate of 100,000,000 shares of our common stock, par value $0.001 per share, in exchange for $13,000,000 principal amount of our 2�% Convertible Notes due 2009 (the "2�% Notes") beneficially owned by institutional holders. After giving effect to these exchanges, $174,588,000 aggregate principal amount of the 2�% Notes remain outstanding.
We will not receive any cash proceeds as a result of the exchange of our common stock for the 2�% Notes, which notes will be retired and cancelled. We executed these transactions to reduce our debt and interest cost, increase our equity, and improve our balance sheet. We may engage in additional exchanges in respect of our outstanding indebtedness if and as favorable opportunities arise.
The issuance of the shares of our common stock will be made pursuant to the exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, contained in Section 3(a)(9) of such Act.
I here you with the OEM's especially now, opportunities may exist in future contract negotiations around lifetime subs with Best of Both. There is a little more wiggle room with this package.
As far as EXM, when they purchased Quintana, they did so at a premium. Quintana had acquired 17 vessels from Metrobulk at a hefty debt load in May 2006, which had at the time had contracts through 2008 at an average of about 83% capacity and around 70% capacity for 2009, and 2010. Then the world fell out ,and EXM has Quintana's 735M dollar debt facility for those Metrobulk ships with as you say little in the way of long term contracts. Their new and delivered, but not fully funded. That's why I said their financial statements are not clean. In two years they picked up a lot of debt.
If you issue stock to raise money is this good or bad for stock holders? If they keep doing this to pay down their debt, will this stock ever move? Thanks much luv u guys, we all fucked up because of this stock!
I have it from an inside source that SIRI will pay cash for the FEB debt. The stock will climb to .50-1.00; refinancing will get done; with the threat of no BK the naked shorts will get killed; Obama's newe SEC chief will outlaw naked shorting; SIRI 2009 sales will exceed expectations; You can take it from there. And the NABBIE's will try another approach to kill their biggest non-competitor.
As long as some one is willing to take shares for debt the threat of BK is diminished. Otherwise take the cash at maturity and move on..... Why become a share holder in a company going BK. Big Ben might be right on picking shares up lower, but I doubt it. .112 has held up pretty good several times.... any good news will get us out of the teens. JMHO but what do I know I bought shares at an average of .118 recently. Good luck an thanks for the info....
We really don't have evidence that they are unable to finance the rest of the Feb debt. So far they have been working it down with shares for equity. With B of B offerings, and COH they could pay it off. My take is the silence is because the negotiations for debt restructuring are not about Feb, but about May's 300M due and Dec' 400M due. Even with subs at the OEM being off for the 4th Q, currently generating new subscriptions costs them money. That's why the push has been mute in my opinion and cultivating expanded subs with existing customers and selling the B of B has been their focus. GS has been quiet and they hold both Feb, $127M, and the Dec, XM notes for around $70M. It should be interesting how it all unwinds over the next 6 weeks...... anything is possible.... and I'm hoping as we all are that the BK is just not probable....
Also, the audio compression on the music stations is KILLING me. There's got to be a way to send this out to the ether at a better bit rate. I've had to get used to compression with my ipod, and my collection is ripped at a much higher rate than what sounds like 128k.
I've been a stockholder since 2005, and have lost HUGE like everyone else, but I'm finally starting to understand some of the shortcomings of this service.
Anyway..Big Ben....IMHO... .04 = a Chapter was filed. .08 = unexpected bad company news. Otherwise, we should hold here.
I was wrong yesterday about 6th down day. Today was the 6th. I defy anyone to show me more than 7 DOW down days in a row. If so, I will stand corrected but I don't think you can do it. So we closed a CH over 8200 today. If we break 8000 tomorrow (maybe when lol), most likely look for the bounce tomorrow PM. Last test for the S&P was about 820. Close @ 842 today. Good news still is no late day sell-offs. Today was a a comeback as have been most days. Don't forget. All this bad news was EXPECTED. That's why we're not at 7200 this very day. But really what choice is there? Markets just can't go up on this type of news...but won't tank either. Those violent days of Sept, Oct, Nov are history (for now) barring more cataclysm (surprise). Bad economy? It's out already. Bad earnings? Out. TARP money? Out. Expanding Fed balance sheet? Out. All we're doing is retracking so we can actually go up. They just don't want to take it over low 9000's. Range-bound baby.
Glad you finally got your numbers...as always good luck!
btw...to the guy who said somthing about Mel bailing out shareholders...quite the contrary. Mel and BOD are working on one thing, which is doing what's necessary for the company. Shareholders just decide for themselves what they think that will be...and either buy in or sell out accordingly. Simple as that. IMHO...
On Jan 14 06:41 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Neal, anything is possible but, the K.I.S.S. principle should always
> be in place when selling these services. Unless the OEM, as 163888
> said above, is getting their fair share (and more), they're not motivated
> to selling anything but cars. It will have to be a negotiation with
> the OEM's that leaves the OEMs motivated to sell packages and include
> the costs up front with the car purchase.
>
> Personally I think, and have said it before, there is much more opportunity
> in chasing second owner or non subscribers driving around with equipment
> already installed. The hardware with chipsets have already been paid
> for by Sirius XM, but have never paid off in the form of sub revenue.
> Turn these radios on from time to time and advertise 2 years for
> 1 year or whatever combination the company comes up with. SAC costs
> go down and FCF is enhanced.
>
> The aftermarket business is as straight forward as it can be now.
> Buy a radio that fits your needs, sign up for a subscription that
> fits your budget, and finance it any way you like. Credit cards are
> already in place for those that don't want to pay it all up front.
> Consumers choice. My point is that there is more room for the company
> to entice with cheaper subs on a variety of packages then their is
> for them to give hardware away. They are not a manufacturing company,
> they are a media content company.
On Jan 15 03:34 PM 163888 wrote:
> mogami_99, Dilution is still dilution, I think you will see drops
> in the PPS and recovery each time SIRIXM comes out with one of these
> trade offs. There is a silver lining though, that being that anyone
> investing 13 million into SIRIXM at this point in a private stock
> offering is most likely being given some kind of assurance that the
> company is not planing on filing for bankruptcy any time soon.
Day low was either .112 or .113...but I did see an .111 that day the huge Fund unwind in SIRI shares after the close. But the legit hold at .11 today is essentially right there and a good thing.
How is your place doing? And we always forget that the most important thing is that you and yours are all OK...
Im about 250 points off my low, i thought the 8300 area might hold...
I didnt buy today, my order .11 cents never got filled...I hope to never have to wonder if thats true(whether an .11 cent order will fill or not..) Hopefully in a month Ill be wondering if my .20 cent order will fill...
I think now that only GS bonds are left of the 300 million, we will see a final push to see what they can get the shares for, then take shares for debt...
Then Sirius will release news and good quarters to try to push to 1.00...If they cant by april..may...or the economy and market turn again...they will let the sp fall again, the R/S around a decent market recovery envirnonment...Thats my prediction, and its worthless....
They wont have enough shares to pay off all 09 debt with shares at this price...check the mat... They would need 5.3 billion shares...They only asked for what...3.5 million more? So what does this mean? The SP will go up, or they will have to pay off some of the debt another way...
The 2 year old is pretty upset over losing all her toys and books. The wide screen TV bit the big one. But it's all just stuff and I can always get more stuff.
All things considered came out of it alright. Thanks for asking.
Threw another chunk on the fire hoping today was the low. (It did go up after that I thought we might make it back to .12 before close.)
On Jan 15 04:58 PM sl62 wrote:
> mogami_99...
>
> Day low was either .112 or .113...but I did see an .111 that day
> the huge Fund unwind in SIRI shares after the close. But the legit
> hold at .11 today is essentially right there and a good thing. <br/>
>
> How is your place doing? And we always forget that the most important
> thing is that you and yours are all OK...
I think it's odd that I got 3 thumbs down responses to this post. What I think is even more odd is that the discussion around Sirius' present & future revolves around it's stock price, debt level, and financial supports as opposed to determining if there is a product here of any value (beyond its initial "novelty") to the public.
On Jan 14 03:00 PM pythagosaurus rex wrote:
> the competition is tough and growing tougher every day. As a consumer
> I ask myself - what does SiriusXM have that I want that I can't
> get anywhere else? and the answer is "not much". True- the spectrum
> offers a grand selection of choices, but I bet that SiriusXM folk
> narrow their selections to less than 5% of the spectrum. SiriusXM
> strategists, I expect, program to the needs within 1.5 standard deviations
> of the mean, and thereby end up only offering what can be heard somewhere
> else at a lesser price. But that's just my wacked-out opinion.
mogami_99.... what a situation to be in. life throws all kinds of shit at ya..... hope you and yours get through these tough times finding comfort from each other and coming out stronger from the experience.... hang in there and here's to better days for you and yours.....
On Jan 15 08:32 PM pythagosaurus rex wrote:
> Note to self:
> I think it's odd that I got 3 thumbs down responses to this post.
> What I think is even more odd is that the discussion around Sirius'
> present & future revolves around it's stock price, debt level,
> and financial supports as opposed to determining if there is a product
> here of any value (beyond its initial "novelty") to the public.<br/>
I think we don't really know what can happen with the 300M May Bank loan. If that facility were able to be extended into 2010, even just one year, I think it would go a long way. They take care of Feb with shares/some Cash and get that 300M extended. Now that would clear the short-term deck to allow SP to rehydrate some. At the same time they announce they will continue to seek the best solution to handle Dec. and reiterate that better market conditions over summer will help...plus with SP higher they can get more for less shares (from 3.5B new traunch) if necessary. By next May, between shares and further COH, they can take care of the 300M. Q4 will be good so between now and Feb 23rd when they report, with Feb debt already done and announce of my above thoughts, it should be go time. I just see that no debt due in 2010, has to mean something as a card held or this company...
10 million spent at .12 would break even if SP gets to .24. However they have something like 4.5 bil more shares they can issue. Better to issue them at .24 then .12. I guess what I am struggling to say is if Sirius makes raising share value a priority they also make paying off debt easier.
I keep having nightmares where all us Sirius stock holder keep buying as others sell and all we are really doing is encouraging people to sell by keeping the price up. If we had all just said "f%$# this" back in Sept the price would have went to .04 and everyone would have sold out and we could have bought 3 times as many shares before it went to .1.25
On Jan 16 02:20 PM sl62 wrote:
> oops hit the wrong button i guess...
>
> I think we don't really know what can happen with the 300M May Bank
> loan. If that facility were able to be extended into 2010, even just
> one year, I think it would go a long way. They take care of Feb with
> shares/some Cash and get that 300M extended. Now that would clear
> the short-term deck to allow SP to rehydrate some. At the same time
> they announce they will continue to seek the best solution to handle
> Dec. and reiterate that better market conditions over summer will
> help...plus with SP higher they can get more for less shares (from
> 3.5B new traunch) if necessary. By next May, between shares and further
> COH, they can take care of the 300M. Q4 will be good so between now
> and Feb 23rd when they report, with Feb debt already done and announce
> of my above thoughts, it should be go time. I just see that no debt
> due in 2010, has to mean something as a card held or this company...
I don't know how many shares you're buying but with a 3 something B float, 100K shares moves this stock little--esp. when it's not accompanied by concerted selling or buying pressure....
Look. Here we are now heading into the 3rd week of January. Quite frankly, I'm surprised we haven't heard from the company (esp. based on the info they released at the meeting and the entities they are ostensibly working with (JPM and Evercore). We heard about that info on Dec 18 and another assumption is they didn't just start working with both on the 17th...so there must have been talks prior to the meeting which had some kind of progress. Now a month later, I would have thought we'd get something. Not so. So...we keep waiting. We see the shares being swapped, slowly chipping away on GS, but what's the plan? That's what we'd love to know. Where am I going with this?
I'm saying that we are not the only ones who are saying "well...we're waiting! Let's hear the plan." After that little bump up, now we take a slight hit down. Could be selling of those swapped shares, or maybe just selling in general. Somehow, I'm not sure it's the former because it makes way more sense for GS to hold the shares they are getting. They are not strapped for cash to say the least. What we have going on now is guilty by association. Look at what is now going on all around SIRI. Banks under fire again (even JPM), CC is now liquidating, Nortel just filed, Charter is one step away from filing. Amidst all of this, SIRI now looks bad and traders/investors have to be right now saying SIRI's next to file. No faith and how can you blame them? If it quacks it must be a duck, right? So in light of all this, SIRI would do VERY WELL by revealing their plan and aleviate that guilt. March 1 is a mere 30 trading days from now. The plan must be in place (if there is one lol!)...best to lay it out for the Street now. They do that, this stock moves. Otherwise, because of these aforementioned new circumstances, SIRI could be dogged until they do. They certainly don't look super hot at the moment to the Street.
Anyway, you slice it, this stock will see at least .25/.30 by March 1. If they file, it will be due to the short unwind and bottom feeders (but then it will crash). Look at CCTYQ. Classic. Or..if they have an executable plan, the SP will begin it's rebound in earnest from as 163888 says, being beaten up...and have new legs. Until then they're a stock just like any other--up and down in a range. Right now their range is .11 - .14 until whatever news is coming, comes. IMHO...
p.s. sorry about the material losses on that fire situation. hang in there.
SI is out for Dec B...
Short Interest (Shares Short) 214,743,800
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 5.0
Short Percent of Float 6.21 %
Short Interest - Prior 263,767,800
Short % Increase / Decrease -18.59 %
Short Squeeze Ranking™ -30
Interesting that it dropped by 59M. Looking at the charts, I don't really see it (pretty much the first time it hasn't been evident in earnest in recent months) so...again, there are so many freaking variables involved here. We're doing our best to keep up and keep it all making sense. The Jan. A numbers will be interesting. We won't get those until early Feb, which is real close to the GS Notes due date. We just had a pop in early Jan. Was that short covering or real buying? We won't know until then. The hope is also that we get the plan in the next few weeks. Then all this conjecture can stop once and for all.
Thanks for the run down and I agree with your assessment of where we are. I must say given all the recent filings and CC's change in status with a liquidation, that Sirius might do well to keep its head down until all is known. This quarter's filing is also their annual report so details on the merged entity applied in the new financial reporting format recently shown in the SEC filing, might be causing some delay. A new accounting firm to certify and debt to refinance are most likely keeping management silent until all the I's are dotted and T's are crossed.
The May debt being extended into the latter part of 2010 would be better, and I believe the amount is $350M, ($250M and $100M Bank facilities that were XM's). In addition, the company still has not made any announcement about their scheduled launch of the additional satellite in the Fall 09, that will require an additional cash payment of I think $250M. (the reason why they said they would not be FCF positive for the full year of 2009). Pushing this launch out, if possible, will also add a positive to the financial picture if they can. XM did have 2 dormant Satellites out their that might be able to be used for XM programming. I don't know if the current XM satellites can be used for Sirius Transmission of signal or if this Launch is needed to support that side of the house. As you say there are a lot of variables to the puzzle, and information should be forth coming that lays it all out, one way or the other.
We are starting to get some numbers from the mffais.com site that are going to become more relevant over the next 3 weeks and are interesting now. Using the link above you can see that institutions are still favoring adding to their positions and when combined with those last reporting neutral represent 68% of the Institutions holding Sirius' stock. Keep an eye on this site specifically during mid February when most will have filed their 13F HR reports with the SEC for the last quarter.
Thanks as well. Forgot about the satellite and I agree given the other issues, if possible that should be delayed until next year. But as you say, more we don't know as to if it is a requirement for the combined company or not. A Dec 2010 renegotiated maturity for the May debt would be ideal but I scaled back to worst hope (if it can even be done at all) and even May or June would still be 1.5 years out and a big help. But I gotta believe they have to be working the "we have no debt due next year angle" somehow. You can't imagine them not. In fact, this fact could actually be what keeps them out of a Chapter. Could you imagine if they had another like 600-900M due next year? This game would already be over! Of course we wouldn't even still be here were that the case. Speaking of, these guys are really making us sing for our supper eh? As said, given what we found out on the 18th, I'm at least a little surprised we're still in conjecture mode as they do their little period swaps. Personally, amidst all of the recent filings, about to files and liquidations, I think like next week would be a great time to announce "the plan". It would make them stand out amonst the losers and it would be more of a "see, we will beat the odds" to the Street. I hope they just don't wait, drag this out and just ho hum the news release. This is where some sense of timing, communication and a little theater would go a long way for all...as we know timing is huge. We've now been pummeled by BAD timing...I'd like to see some good timing now. Esp. some that can benefit wary shareholders...which is at least this time in their control.
I will say this about shareholders. I agree with you about the company's right not to say much about company business in public. BUT. I think we would all agree that what has happened to the SIRI common holder has been tragic (and cntinues as such). Did you hear ol' Charlie G yesterday on the air talking about all the lawsuits that he expects from BAC shareholders? Hmmm. sounds familiar. I wonder why he wasn't/isn't so outraged about SIRI shareholders. I know, they're a "super bank". Now granted the BAC vote was just in Dec and the SIRI vote was in June of '07, but both votes needed more diligence. What still puzzles me about the SIRI vote is by June of '07, XM already had most of their debt already. I think they took on a new bank facility in June of '08 for a 100M or the like, but they already had all this debt before the vote. I wasn't even looking at SIRI then so I don't know the situation. But you would think at very least all the Funds (who control the votes anyway), would have seen all the debt on XM's balance sheet and said NO f'ing WAY!!! Instead it was sure, we'll take all that debt, when we already have a boatload of our own why not? What? 1.1B due in 2009. No problem!!! I have to ask, wtf we're people thinking??? But anyway, what's done is done and the SIRI common crash is no light reading in it's own right. So....at this point, given the common knowledge by holders and the company alike of the pain we've gone through, a public letter to "us" to say, we appreciate your support, we're working on it, doing the best we can under the circumstances, would have been at least a nice holiday present if not just the right thing to do. Company's (when they're sincere) can and do communicate such things to their shareholders. And if not in this timeframe, I will be expecting SOMETHING directed to "us" when they announce their "plan". A little contrition goes a long way too (and is righteous) when these types of very unnatural circumstances occur. IMO...
Yeah, I see the 59%/31% buying/selling ratio. I still remain a little skeptical of mffais though because I don't think we can be sure of these numbers' relevancy. They lag at best but at worst, we get no buy or sell dates (actual) only report dates of activity. Not that I don't think they're accurate just in how we can use this info to our benefit in the current state. Anyway, not bad to at least see...
It's getting to be time for SIRI to "come to the aid of all good shareholders" lol. Like to see it sooner than later!...
Regarding being a Sirius shareholder back then, the debt due in 2009 for Sirius was the 300M, another 90M or so in Sept 09, a satellite launch and no debt in 2010. The 08 debt was handled nicely in May before the merger, so things weren't looking all that bad. For me the merger was almost a necessity given the market share that XM had and Spectrum that a New Competitor could have brought to the marketplace if XM went BK. In addition a new Competitor could have come in with NO debt and pushed pricing to drive Sirius into BK or otherwise. The XM debt was always an issue but their 2009 debt at the time of the 2007 vote was $250M in May and $400M in Dec at 1.75%. At the merger the Dec 09, $400M was renegotiated to 10%. In May or June of 08, the option of the facility for an additional $100M was taken, bringing May 09 to $350M, and an ADDITIONAL $550M was sold of 7% Notes and 263M lent shares for shorting. As you can see there a lot of things that transpired since the original share vote for authorization that was brought on by the lengthy FCC / DOJ process, but in addition, there was new and additional debt brought on by the merger itself, its timing, and the stressed situation building in the financial markets. I would contend that an informed decision in 2007 by shareholders is not what transpired in the Summer of 2008 at the time of the merger. As far as the Company's management performing contrition, I'm not sure they're done with us yet......
As far as mffais.com I totally agree but, still feel that at least on a quarterly basis, with mid Feb 09 being one of those quarters, that the numbers give data as to the past quarter's numbers. If your looking for info on a company for one quarter, as you say, not reliable. When trending and researching a company over 5 quarters, the information is more useful. Anyways have a good weekend and bring on the football.....
Definitely ready for some football...two great games...enjoy.
Thanks for the run down...didn't mean to make you do that. Not singling anyone out, least of all you or any indie investor with a limited voice in the company, but totaling up the XM debt and SIRI debt pre-vote, that would be due this year (less than two years from the vote), is 1.09B (as we all know more than we care to lol). But that by itself at that time would be considered a HUGE number...and the question was for shareholders was how does a company make 1.09B above and beyond the COH it needs to keep as an adequate surplus, and on top of what it needs for SG&A (in that short timeframe)? I think many more people were focusing on the future, the Spectrum, the combined subs, certainly the what if someone else gets XM, the satrad monopoly, rather than the reality of debt. Without considering the debt, it looked prefty juicy. Esp. for a company who's product is not a necessity. Granted optimism was high then that satrad could be closer to becoming the new de rigeur radio delivery than people thought. Satrad is a great product but I think who's bennies many consumers still have yet to realize.
I know Mel himself has even admitted that after the delays you mention, that to do the deal, he had to shoot first and ask questions later. Yet, even given that scenario, going back to the vote, I'm not sure even he knew exactly how he would address over a billion dollars in debt for '09 (excluding all the new debt from the deal itself). I seriously doubt he actually thought he could pay it all back. My guess is that even then, He knew he would have to use the 'no debt due in 2010 open space' for some of the '09. Just thoughts...
I do wonder if there is precedent for shareholders to recind a vote (knowing that too much time had elapsed since the vote and that it was no longer considered favorable by those same shareholders). Esp. as XM took on that expanded 100M in June of '08 (still pre-merger). I wonder...But it was very probable with XM having one foot in BK already and SIRI needing the merge to make it long-term, I guess Mel took the only option. Do it, roll the dice, stand back and hope for the best. His other option seems to have been certain failure (not only of XM and SIRI but for Satrad itself)...BK for XM and probably the same for SIRI near-term inevitable and then NAB or another vulture would swoop in, grab the spectrum for pennies in court, Mel would be ruined, etc, etc, etc. At least this option gives the whole thing a slim chance of making it and hanging on to the dream...sadly someone had to go under the bus...ouch! Do you think this scenario I'm describing makes any sense?...
That's too weird. Just as I posted my last entry, I notice we are back in positive ratings territory. wtf? I've actually been enjoying not rating or caring about ratings at all. Well, whatever. As soon as the loser crew that patrol these boards from the shadows see this, we'll be back in -200 territory in no time! Maybe even tomorrow! Have a good one...
I think the scenario you've laid out is what has happened. The merger dragging out until August totally ruined any possibilities for a Holiday Season, but then add the Financial Melt down and the Perfect Storm formed to capsize our investments in this already speculative stock. Have the Merger happen in a Bull Market and where would we be now?? IB's competing to refinance the debt and a stock holding value making refinancing the non issue we all thought it would be in 2007. Lessons learned....... and a place where Risk Avoidance is Born.
Unless they had another annual meeting to vote it down or the vote itself was timed to expire, I don't think the vote could have been taken back. All of these questions are why Mel & Company want to succeed and not file because the lawsuits that follow failure will be brutal and wipe this company off the street as an investment in the future??
Killer, hope things are well and your keeping warm. Keep the emergency beacon on and we'll send the trucks for ya in the Spring. We're having a heat wave here in N. E. with temps in the single digits, going back to summer time temps in the 30's tomorrow. By the way, does the Dog have the cow bell on again for the big games? Gotta keep him outta the punch bowl or he'll be head down in a snowbank by nightfall........ take care all.
I don't know what happens with the ratings. Maybe they read your eloquent rant last week and took action or someone got pulled and their sabotage of the system was undone. Who knows? Maybe it was 163888 again..LOL
On Jan 13 11:22 AM Edster wrote:
> The management of SIRIUS/XM knows best what to do. It doesn't need
> advice from anyone including stock holders or any investment advisors.
> Personally I feel Mel and his management team will suceed in making
> the satelite company a profitable firm. As a stock holder I intend
> to hold on hopeing that in the not to distant future results will
> reflect in significant increase in stock's price.
I agree. I have to believe that if this company was going to file, it would have happened already. Even though we'd like to see the plan yesterday, the fact that we're getting 8K's bodes well for the future.
Killer, you're the man with the plan. Hope it's warmed up there too. We just got out of 48 straight hrs below zero this morning. Damn! But that's probably nothing compared to what you get in the Hills.
I'm still on your edict of no ratings. This is screwy. If anything you should be up there with cos1000.
Thanks guys...Stay warm. I see an Eagles/Steelers SB.
Why doesn't Sirius make their product more attractive/useful? Instead of only offering radio, make a receiver that also has GPS. Sirius contracts the radios to manufacturers who already make GPS units and Sirius already has the infrastructure in place (satellite).
Does anyone else this is a good idea or just me?