Editors' Note: This article covers stocks trading at less than $1 per share and/or with less than a $100 million market cap. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.
A happy New Year to all readers interested in our monthly review of analysts' price targets for uranium miners.
As always, the present January edition will summarize our most recent data on analyst price targets and make comparisons with targets and recommendations reported a month ago in our December edition.
We have not changed our watch list and will continue to consider the following companies in alphabetical order for this update: Cameco (CCJ), Denison Mines (DNN), Energy Fuels (UUUU), Fission Uranium (OTCQX:FCUUF), UEX Corp (UEXCF), Uranerz (URZ), Uranium Energy (UEC), Uranium Resources (URRE) and Ur-Energy (URG).
Most companies mentioned in this article have more analysts following their progress than considered in our database. This difference is due to the fact that not all analysts release their predictions to Yahoo.com. This article only considers analyst reports available through Yahoo.com and not all analysts are providing their data free of charge on this platform.
Price targets for Energy Fuels, Fission Uranium and UEX Corp are given in Canadian Dollars and we have used a conversion rate of 0.92 for this report.
Our data for these stocks is summarized in the table below. The first three columns list the company names, ticker symbols and share prices at the time of writing. Price targets (low, median and high) are listed in the following three columns. These targets are followed by a column giving the number of analysts providing data to Yahoo.com and the mean recommendations given by these analysts ranging from 1.0 (strong buy) to 5.0 (sell). This concludes the data sourced directly from Yahoo.com.
The following columns are colored in light green and contain data derived from our source data. These data points are given in percentages related to the share price at the time of writing. The column titled "median-price" gives the differences between the share price and the median price targets. The column titled "high-low" gives the difference between the high and the low targets. The last four columns titled "target change" document the changes in price targets since the December report with the last columns giving the average changes over the low, median and high price targets.
Note: At present there is only data from one single analyst available on Yahoo.com for Uranium Resources, Fission Uranium and UEX Corp.
The difference between the current share price and the median price target is listed in column "median-price". Under normal circumstances we would view a large value in this column as an indicator for the potential of disproportionate gains over the coming year.
Price targets for Energy Fuels continue to indicate the greatest potential by quite some margin. Uranium Resources on the other hand is trading less than 20% below the median price target.
The results from column "high-low" in the table above are visualized in the next diagram. They can be interpreted as a measure for divergence in analyst opinion. Note that for Fission Uranium, Uranium Resources and UEX Corp targets from only one analyst were available and no measure for this category could be computed.
Targets for Uranerz and Denison Mines are the most divergent. High and low targets for these two companies diverge by 80% of the respective present share price. Cameco is positioned at the end of this ranking; however, analysts' targets still differ by 40% of the current share price for this sector leader.
On average price targets decreased by -0.2% during the past month. There was hardly any movements with Energy Fuels receiving a 4% target increase and UEX Corp and Fission Uranium 3% cuts.
Unchanged from last month Ur-Energy is seen most favorably by analysts at present in terms of buy recommendations as documented in column "Recommendation" and the diagram below, followed by Uranerz and Fission Uranium. UEX Corp dropped to the end of this ranking on no news at all that could explain this drop in favor. The little red bar indicates the recommendation change from last month.
We would like to finish this article by showing a comparative chart of share price performance in 2013 of our watch list members.
We note that Cameco hardly made a move when viewed in the yearly time frame. The smaller companies displayed more volatility, as could be expected; and two of them actually mustered large moves to the upside, namely Fission Uranium (+112%) and Ur-Energy (+86%).
UEC Corp recorded the greatest losses (-34%) mimicking the general behavior of its junior minerals exploration peers.
Disclosure: I am long URZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
