New Highs: What Do They Mean?

Jul. 22, 2014 5:34 PM ETIYT, SPY, XHB6 Comments
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Chris Ciovacco
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Summary

  • The S&P 500 made a new intraday high Tuesday.
  • The new high removes a handful of bearish set-ups.
  • However, the bears still have a few areas of short-term hope.

Homes Sales Help Spark Rally

The S&P 500 posted a new intraday high Tuesday after encouraging housing (NYSEARCA:XHB) data was released. From Reuters:

U.S. home resales hit an eight month-high in June, suggesting the housing market was gradually regaining momentum and would help the economy to stay on a higher growth path this year. The third straight month of home sales gains, reported by the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday, added to employment and retail sales data that have indicated economic growth ended the second quarter on a firmer note.

S&P Has Not Done This Yet

While the headlines referenced new highs, the S&P 500 needs to close over 1985 and change to make a new closing high. Tuesday's close fell just short with the final print for the day coming in at 1983.

As noted on Twitter, investors can gain some short-term insight based on where stocks head next.

Earnings Playing A Big Role

Earnings have been pleasing to stock market bulls thus far. However, less than half of the companies in the S&P 500 have pulled back their quarterly curtain. From The Wall Street Journal:

Eighty three of the 116 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date have beat expectations, according to FactSet. For the Dow, 11 companies of the 14 that have reported have topped estimates. There's been "a really healthy earnings picture for U.S. corporations so far," said Michael Marrale, head of research, sales and trading at brokerage firm ITG.

Investment Implications - Bulls Still In Control

As noted on July 21, recent volatility can be put into the "normal" basket. How concerned should we be about the failure of the S&P 500 to post a new closing high? At this point, it is not something to lose sleep over. Our concerns would increase if stocks have

This article was written by

Chris Ciovacco profile picture
10.85K Followers
Chris Ciovacco is the founder and CEO of Ciovacco Capital Management (CCM), an independent money management firm serving individual investors nationwide. The thoroughly researched and backtested CCM Market Model answers these important questions: (1) How much should we allocate to risk assets?, (2) How much should we allocate to conservative assets?, (3) What are the most attractive risk assets?, and (4) What are the most attractive conservative assets? Chris is an expert in identifying the best ETFs from a wide variety of asset classes, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and precious metals. The CCM Market Model compares over 130 different ETFs to identify the most attractive risk-reward opportunities. Chris graduated summa cum laude from The Georgia Institute of Technology with a co-operative degree in Industrial and Systems Engineering. Prior to founding Ciovacco Capital Management in 1999, Mr. Ciovacco worked as a Financial Advisor for Morgan Stanley in Atlanta for five years earning a strong reputation for his independent research and high integrity. While at Georgia Tech, he gained valuable experience working as a co-op for IBM (1985-1990). During his time with Morgan Stanley, Chris received extensive training which included extended stays in NYC at the World Trade Center. His areas of expertise include technical analysis and market model development. CCM’s popular weekly technical analysis videos on YouTube have been viewed over 700,000 times. Chris’ years of experience and research led to the creation of the thoroughly backtested CCM Market Model, which serves as the foundation for the management of separate accounts for individuals and businesses. Copy and paste links into your browser: Market Model: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/ccmmarketmodel/ More About CCM: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/aboutus/ YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/user/CiovaccoCapital Twitter: https://twitter.com/CiovaccoCapital CCM Home Page: http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/sys-tmpl/hometwo/

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