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Book Review: Red-Blooded Risk

Dec. 12, 2011 7:25 AM ET
Eric Falkenstein profile picture
Eric Falkenstein
301 Followers

I got a copy of Aaron Brown's latest book Red-Blooded Risk, which is kind of like My Life as a Quant by Derman, in that's it's a very personal account of how finance works. I think it's very useful for 50-somethings to write retrospectives like this, because otherwise it's written by people too far removed or too naive. For example Michael Lewis's Liar's Poker is now a classic, but he was a mere bond salesman for 3 years; while his anecdotes were interesting and well-told, his big take-aways on how finance fits with the modern society and the economy were as naive as your typical 25-year old bond salesman.

Brown makes several important points. For example, he notes that the 99% value-at-risk might capture more relevant data, but it needs so much data one should look at 95% value-at-risks. While you can derive this from statistics, it is a practitioner point that clearly is better appreciated from experience. He clearly comes across as someone who understands both the math and how it is applied.

The book tries to deal with how to manage risk, mainly from the point of view of a hedge fund, or something where one is looking at a bunch of strategies. That is, in my experience as a risk manager at KeyCorp, most of our risk there was incidental as a market maker with customer flow, and such risks were rather trivial once one had 'rogue trader' risks under control. His view is more like if you are looking at a book with pairs traders, a momentum trade on government debt, and other such strategies.

Brown mentions early on that he is thinking about risk differently than the standard model, where risk is a cost, and return a benefit. He never really boils it down to something concrete, but rather

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Eric Falkenstein profile picture
301 Followers
Eric Falkenstein (http://www.efalken.com) is a consultant and investment adviser for CapRock Advisers LLC, based in Minneapolis. His website, defprob.com (http://www.defprob.com), presents data on nonfinancial corporate debt, and equity indices. His blog, Falkenblog (http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/), is mainly about economics and finance. Prior published articles are kept here (http://www.efalken.com/papers/index.html). Prior to his current position, Eric was a long/short equity portfolio manager at Deephaven Capital Management and Telluride Capital Management. Prior to that, at Moody's he developed RiskCalcTM, the leading tool for estimating private firm default risk. At KeyCorp bank, he was Head of Capital Allocations and Quantitative Research, and implemented various capital allocation processes around the bank. He has a PhD in economics from Northwestern University. His recent book, Finding Alpha, was published by Wiley Finance. Visit his blog: Falkenblog (http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/)

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