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  • Fed Minutes Move Stocks Back Towards Higher Pivots.  0 comments
    Apr 9, 2014 7:00 PM | about stocks: TLT, GLD, XLE, DIA, QQQ, SPY

    Pivots continue to keep the major equity averages locked in choppy trading ranges, but this does not signal a new round of all-time or multiyear highs.

    The Dow Industrial Average is between monthly and semiannual pivots at 16297 and 16245, and its quarterly pivot at 16462.

    The S&P 500 is above its quarterly pivot at 1853.5 with its monthly pivot at 1895.6.

    The Nasdaq is still below its five-week modified moving average at 4203.

    The Dow Transportation Average is below this week's risky level at 7678.

    The Russell 2000 is still below its five-week MMA at 1165.28 and its quarterly pivot at 1169.22.

    Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and Dow Transports are back above their 21-day SMAs but have declining 12x3x3 daily slow stochastics. The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are still below their 21-day SMAs.

    We still have semiannual value levels at 3930 and 3920 on the Nasdaq with semiannual pivots at 16245 Dow Industrials, 1797.3 and 1764.4 S&P 500, 7376 and 7245 Dow Transports, and 1133.29 and 1130.79 on the Russell 2000, and the semiannual risky level at 16860 Dow Industrials. All pivots mentioned have been crossed at least once so far in 2014.

    To confirm a market top there needs to be simultaneous weekly closes below the five-week modified moving averages at 16256 Dow Industrials, 1850.0 S&P 500, 4203 Nasdaq, 7450 Dow Transports and 1165.28 Russell 2000. Only the Nasdaq and Russell have negative weekly charts.

    If a stock market top is confirmed the risk is to the annual value levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 on Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on Russell 2000.

    Dow Industrials: (16437) Annual value levels are 14835 and 13467 with semiannual and monthly pivots at 16245 and 16297, quarterly and daily risky levels at 16462 and 16549, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 16631.63 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 16772 and 16860.

    S&P 500 - (1872.2) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1797.3, 1764.4, 1539.1 and 1442.1 with a quarterly pivot at 1853.5, the April 4 all-time intraday high at 1897.28, and daily, monthly and weekly risky levels at 1885.5, 1895.6 and 1915.8.

    NASDAQ - (4184) Quarterly, semiannual and annual value levels are 4039, 3930, 3920, 3471 and 3063 with daily and weekly risky levels at 4215 and 4338, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 4371.71 and monthly risky level at 4446.

    NASDAQ 100 (NDX) - (3600) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 3456, 3458, 3424, 3078 and 2669 with daily and weekly risky levels at 3616 and 3695, the March 6 multiyear intraday high at 3738.32, and monthly risky levels at 3834.

    Dow Transports - (7591) Quarterly, semiannual, and annual value levels are 7407, 7376, 7245, 6249 and 5935 with daily and weekly risky levels at 7724 and 7678, the April 3 all-time intraday high at 7715.91 and monthly risky level at 7812.

    Russell 2000 - (1159.96) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1133.29, 1130.79, 966.72 and 879.39, with a quarterly pivot at 1169.22, daily and monthly risky levels at 1179.08 and 1211.52, the March 4 all-time intraday high at 1212.82 and weekly risky level at 1224.32.

    The SOX - (587.72) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are 548.36, 507.19, 490.52, 371.58 and 337.74 with a monthly pivot at 581.64, a daily risky level at 596.59, the April 3 multiyear intraday high at 601.40 and weekly risky level at 606.78.

    Dow Utilities: (537.35) Quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual value levels are 528.10, 524.37, 504.74, 502.03 and 497.53 with a daily pivot at 538.15, and weekly and annual risky levels at 542.83 and 548.70.

    The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note (2.694%) is below the convergence of its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 2.719%, 2.709% and 2.721%. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 2.729% and its 200-week SMA at 2.412%.

    The yield on the US Treasury 30-Year bond (3.574%) is below its 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 3.595%, 3.633% and 3.719%. The weekly chart shows the bond yield between its five-week MMA at 3.631% and its 200-week SMA at 3.532%.

    Comex Gold ($1305.9) is below its 21-day SMA at $1320.6 and between the "golden cross" of the 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $1311.9 and $1296.9. The weekly chart is negative with the five-week MMA at $1310.8 and the 200-week SMA at $1494.3. The golden cross is thus in a tug-of-war with the negative weekly chart.

    Nymex Crude Oil ($103.60) is above its converged 21-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $100.07, $100.43 and $100.63. The weekly chart shifts to positive given a close this week above its five-week MMA at $100.98 with its 200-week SMA at $93.86.

    The Euro (1.3853) is above its 21-day SMA, 50-day SMA and 200-day SMAs at 1.3810, 1.3742 and 1.3538. The weekly chart shifts to neutral give a close this week above its five-week MMA at 1.3769 with its 200-week SMA at 1.3362.

    To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

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