Fannie Mae, Should It Go Away?

Christopher DeMaria
321 Followers

[Originally published on 05/22/2014.]

Fannie Mae (OTCQB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac (OTCQB:FMCC) have returned to the headlines over recent weeks as the debate over their futures have picked up some momentum. Some suggest that these entities were responsible for the housing market crash and consequently should be abolished. Others suggest that these government sponsored entities play a key part in housing market liquidity and that we need them to maintain stability in the markets. Whether you're a consumer, bank, mortgage broker or an investor, you probably played a part in the entire housing boom and bust.

The federal government is partially responsible for easing lending standards, pushing adjustable rate mortgages, and consequently inflating the housing market in an effort to increase home ownership in America. Increasing home ownership sounds like a good thing but, in the end the costs were devastating to our economy. Fannie and Freddie are/were essentially victims of moral suasion and ultimately, were left holding the bag. This was a perfect example of "good intentions gone wrong" and to some degree, the cycle is starting over again with the government pushing HARP/HAMP programs. Although, these programs are designed to reduce requirements to help people save their home rather than speculate on a home they may not be able to afford.

The consumer was/is partially responsible for overextending their financial resources with an infinite number of individual goals and needs for borrowing. During the boom there was an abundance of cash available from home equity for paying bills, purchasing vehicles, or even investment properties. Once the tides turned, access to money dried up almost overnight and the many consumers started to run into financial trouble.

The banks and mortgage brokers were partially responsible for pushing products (like ARMs) that many people didn't thoroughly understand the risks of. Some of the mortgage brokers

This article was written by

321 Followers
Christopher Gaith DeMaria is a member of the Global Community. Having lived abroad for more than 18 years, he studied in South America, Europe, Southeast Asia and the United States. Chris is the owner of DeMaria Financial Services and an Investment Advisor Representative with Kovack Investment Advisors, Inc. He began his career in financial planning and portfolio management in March of 1998 after earning a degree from Ohio University where he majored in Economics and minored in Business Administration. Chris focuses on achieving "positive" results regardless of how the market indices perform. Unlike some managers, Chris manages the risk of each  individual portfolio rather than remaining invested at all times. Chris strives to identify low risk entry points and conversely, uses a calculated exit strategy when market risk is high or positions are lagging or down. Chris does not try to beat an index every quarter. Instead, he is focused on the potential for low risk profits. If you manage risk well and avoid large corrections, you will naturally create much better results. There is no new thing under the sun Ecc 1:9 The headlines in the news change daily and market leaders change regularly but, the one thing that remains consistent over time is how humans react to stock market volatility (aka fear and greed). During highly volatile markets and market inflection points, human emotion is a consistent and measurable phenomenon that generally isn’t accounted for in any research report or stock analysis. This observation precipitated the creation of the proprietary market risk meter for quantifying said human emotion and consequent reactions to short term market activity. Regardless of education, wealth, knowledge, or any other factor that may make a person seem wise, people react the same way when fear or greed sets in. No matter how many times a fire drill is rehearsed, when an emergency presents itself, the exit is often not pleasant.This methodology is by no means perfect however, it is a best effort attempt to quantify the belief that many things will return to some sort of mean over time and that people consistently exhibit the same undulating responses to fear and greed. Consequently, it is possible to view the ebbs and flows of the markets as ocean tides. When the tide comes in, risk is higher and conversely, when the tide flows out, risk is lower. Although it is not possible to consistently predict exactly when a correction or bounce will occur, it is possible to determine when a change in trend is occurring. Furthermore, a sophisticated investor can often determine when there is more or less inherent risk in the market. It is also possible to examine whether the tide has come in further than normal, presenting greater risk or gone out further than normal, providing a rare lower-risk entry point. When risk is elevated, active investors should begin trimming losers, laggards, and potentially take partial gains from winners in  portfolios. Investors may also consider reviewing the types of positions worth  holding when things get ugly. Long-term asset allocation investors can look at  re-balancing portfolios by shifting equity gains to other less market correlated asset classes like bonds or cash alternatives. Some investors may also consider hedging strategies like selling calls, purchasing puts, or stop limit orders to try to mitigate risk. Conversely, when risk is lower, a plan of action should already be in place with a buy list of favored mutual funds, equities, and ETF's having been identified. Secondly, it is essential to identify a high volume, high volatility, downside trading day that is coupled with a strong reversal and 1-2 days' follow through. When all of these conditions are met, this methodology recommends purchasing equities.Methodology for determining favored sectors Christopher G. DeMaria has over 18 years of experience managing money for individuals, corporations, and foundations. While adapting from successes and failures throughout some of the most challenging markets since the Great Depression (1998 to 2016), his methodology has been continuously tested over that time in order to improve its reliability and effectiveness. Part of his investment methodology includes a quantitative approach to identifying changes in trends at early stages and continually monitoring their relative performance against one-another.  This process uses simple mathematical ratios (IE: SPY /EFA or SPY/XLB) to determine when one asset class is performing better than another. When properly calibrated, these ratios provide a precise moment when the trend in one asset changes compared to another.  This process is most effective when portfolio holdings are methodically adjusted based on different levels of market risk and relative asset class performance. As stated above, when risk is higher, portfolio holdings should be reallocated out of lagging or losing asset classes and moved into leading, lower risk, or non-market correlated assets. This process inherently frees up cash for future “lower risk entry points” when assets can be allocated back into equities and other favored assets. Essentially this is a systematic approach designed to attempt to purchase leading asset classes when market risk is lower and sell lagging and losing positions when market risk is higher. In the end, the goal is to buy low and sell high.ImplementationThere are three key factors to successfully implementing this portfolio management process. The first is having sufficient knowledge and understanding of the financial markets which takes time to acquire. The second is having adequate  time and dedication to develop skill. The third is having the proper discipline to continually monitor the process. Many individuals have some or even all of these characteristics but, simply lack the time, interest, or expertise to dedicate themselves to managing their own portfolios properly. With the exception of those whom are confident in their knowledge, skill, and discipline to manage this process, it is strongly advised to seek professional assistance.  HistoryThis Risk Managed Global Sector Rotation strategy has been well documented on Seeking Alpha during the most recent correction. Furthermore, a full cycle from high risk to low risk and subsequent recovery was well documented on Seeking Alpha in 2014.The Lows Still Appear To Be In...What's Next?Wed, Feb. 24th, 2016 (confirming successful retest of lows and providing actionable ideas)Weekly Leading Sectors Report Wed, Feb. 10th, 2016 (confirminglows and providing actionable ideas)In Hoc Signo Vinces... What Market Signs Are You Watching?Fri, Feb. 5th, 2016 (confirming lows and providing a macroeconomic overview)The Lows Appear To Be In... What's Next?Tue, Jan. 26 (confirming lows and providing actionable ideas)How Can You Identify Market Turning Points?... ReloadedThu, Jan. 21 (identifying lows, Dow Theory discussion and providing actionable ideas)2014 Full CycleThis Looks Like The Lower-Risk Buying Opportunity We've Been Waiting ForOct. 24th, 2014 (identifying lows and providing actionable ideas)Preparing For A Lower-Risk Entry Point In A Secular Bull MarketOct. 13th, 2014(preparing for the lows and providing actionable ideas)The Quiet Before The Little StormJul. 8th, 2014 (warning about higher risk and preparing for volatility and short term correction)How Can You Adjust Your Investment Strategy To Enhance Returns?May 28th, 2014 (explanation of a possible long term secular bull market and actionable ideas)CALENDLY LINK: https://calendly.com/cdemaria

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