TOP NEWS
- Late rally pushes stocks to solid gains Fri May 17, 20134:10 PM
- Kocherlakota: Rates still too high Fri May 17, 20132:33 PM
- Google on way to $1,000 per share Fri May 17, 20132:28 PM
- U.S. opens door for natural gas exports Fri May 17, 20131:05 PM
- Selling unabated in gold and the miners Fri May 17, 20133:22 PM
- Yen takes out new multi-year low Fri May 17, 20133:46 PM
- Consumer sentiment jumps in early May Fri May 17, 201310:35 AM
MARKET CURRENTS
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11:57 AM "There are only four sources of high-quality maps," Google, Waze, Navteq, and TomTom (TMOAF.PK), says Rolfe Winkler, and given Facebook's rumored $1B acquisition of Waze, TomTom may become an attractive takeover target for the likes of Apple (AAPL) and others who, while able to drive a hard bargain on map licensing fees, may prefer to bid for the Netherlands-based company rather than worry that a rival will acquire it. TomTom trades at an EV/EBITDA ratio of just 6x. (From December: Rabobank puts AAPL/TomTom odds at 30%) Comment! [Tech, M&A]
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11:33 AM With Turkish stocks and, by extension, the Turkey ETF (TUR), trading just a shade below all time highs, it's worth looking at the country's fundamentals in the wake of Moody's investment grade blessing (I, II). From WSJ: Debt-to-GDP is just 36% (down 10% in the past three years alone), 2012's budget deficit was a comparatively meager 1.4%, and the country's reliance on foreign currency debt is limited to just 27%. Like the Philippines however, authorities are concerned about the potential for inflows of "hot money": "Investment grade can lead to excessive build up of risk and we may have to look into that," Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek says. Comment! [Global & FX]
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9:30 AM Nonperforming loans (as a percentage of total loans) are growing in the eurozone periphery by a disconcerting 2.5% per year, JPMorgan says, adding that the problem appears endemic outside the eurozone core as NPLs are 25%, 19%, 13.4%, and 10% in Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal respectively. This raises questions about the impairment capacity of banks and what steps will ultimately be taken to provision against these underperformers. (Also: Spain's banks to reclassify refies, Slovenia NPLs contribute to downgrade, need to be transferred) 2 Comments [Global & FX]
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9:15 AM Leon Cooperman and partner Steve Einhorn keep it simple: Stocks (VTI) are cheap relative to interest rates and inflation. The guy who bought T-bills (SHY) has migrated to T-bonds (TLT), the guy who bought T-bonds has moved to investment grade corporates (LQD), the guy who bought IG is now in high-yield (HYG, JNK), and so on (glasses clink in the FOMC board room). Their largest position is Sprint Nextel (S) - as fans of Masayoshi Son and long-time owners of DISH, the duo like seeing two industry titans both wanting the same asset. New Citigroup (C) management should be able to double ROE over the next 2-3 years, and Transocean (RIG) sells for a significant discount to asset value. 3 Comments [Quick Ideas]
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8:45 AM Newly public ING U.S. (VOYA) is up 20% since its IPO 2 weeks ago, but only trades at 60% of book value compared to the average life insurer (MET, HIG, PRU) selling for near book, writes Andrew Bary. Not only that, but the company is misunderstood - it's more retirement-services specialist (think PFG) and asset manager than life insurer, and should command an even higher valuation. What's more the seller (ING) was forced by regulators to do so against its will, the ING CEO calling it a "significant destruction of capital." Spinoff & Reorg Profiles - rarely a fan of promoted IPOs - think's it's worth $31. With an easily digestible $6B market cap, it might be worth even more to an acquirer. Comment! [Quick Ideas, Financials]
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8:40 AM European Economic Commissioner Olli Rehn is tired of being labeled "as an unworthy person who is almost eating children," a rather fantastical characterization he says is improperly applied to anyone pushing the austerity agenda. In reality, Rehn is agnostic when it comes to economic policy and says he finds much to like in Keynes. Now that the crisis has dissipated (at least in terms of periphery yield spreads) Rehn says there is more "room to maneuver" and countries can pursue budget cuts "at a slower pace." Comment! [Global & FX]
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8:25 AM Refining Canada’s oil sands produces petroleum coke, called "the dirtiest residue from the dirtiest oil on earth." It's piling up along the Detroit River, NYT reports, thanks to a Marathon Petroleum refinery that began refining Canadian oil sands in November. Detroit’s pile will not be the only one. Canada’s efforts to sell more products from oil sands to the U.S., which include transporting it through the proposed Keystone pipeline, are pulling more coking south to U.S. refineries, creating more waste product. 8 Comments [Energy]
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8:17 AM Saturday humor: A mile long asteroid set to pass within 3.6M miles of earth on May 31 has a rather ominous official name: QE2. 2 Comments
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17 May, 9:35 PM Of the €208.2B in non-performing loans Spanish banks have refinanced (in order to avoid recognizing them as NPLs), nearly half are treated as though they are not distressed, dubiously eliminating the need to take provisions against them, FT says. These banks have until September to reclassify restructured loans under tougher guidelines, a mandate that will likely necessitate fresh provisioning at some institutions. Between them, Santander (SAN), BBVA, and Caixabank (CAIXY.PK) had €76B in refinanced debt on their books at the end of last year. 7 Comments [Financials, Global & FX]
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17 May, 9:17 PM The European investigation (I, II) into oil benchmark pricing raises rarely voiced questions about the appropriate way to set prices. FT notes that Platts' reporters cover 400+ wholesale energy prices everyday and the information available to them is limited to what commodities houses and Big Oil are willing to disclose. The process is complicated by the fact that myriad factors ranging from small discrepancies in quality to the type of hull on transport tankers, make the process inherently subjective. Nevertheless, the ordeal looks quite a bit like the Libor and ISDAFIX probes: a benchmark to which trillions of dollars of assets are tied is determined by key players away from the public eye. Comment! [Commodities, Energy]
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TOP ARTICLES11:59 AM ET SATURDAY MAY 18
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LATEST ARTICLES
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ALPHA-RICH IDEAS
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MACRO VIEW
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DIVIDENDS & INCOME
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ETFs & PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
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INVESTING IDEAS
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