What It Really Costs To Mine Silver: The Pan American Silver Q2 Edition

Hebba Investments
7.29K Followers

Summary

  • The company's core costs have continued to decline from FY2012 and FY2013 and are now consistently below $20 per ounce.
  • On a sequential basis, the company's second quarter saw a rise in core non-tax costs per ounce as gold production dropped significantly from the first quarter.
  • The company expects second half metal production to hit existing targets, and thus we do not expect costs to lower in the next few quarters.
  • The company will continue to tread water at silver prices below $20 per ounce, but the juicy dividend should make it more attractive than other silver miners.

Introduction

In our previous complete Q3FY13 gold cost analysis, we went over a number of the industry's all-in costs to mine an ounce of gold in 2013 and discussed one of the most important metrics to analyze the gold industry, the actual cost of mining an ounce of gold, which can help an investor figure out whether it is time to buy GLD and/or the gold miners. In that analysis, we used the 2013 financials to calculate the combined results of publicly traded gold companies and come up with a true all-in industry average cost of production to mine each ounce of gold.

We're going to do the same thing for the silver industry and try to compute the true costs it takes to mine silver. One thing that needs to be known about the silver industry is that most mined silver is produced as a byproduct, and thus silver production isn't limited simply to the costs that it takes to mine silver.

But that does not mean that investors should entirely ignore the costs to mine silver as it still is very important for the following reasons:

  1. 30-40% of annual mined silver is produced by primary silver miners who obviously are driven by the costs of production
  2. As the price of silver drops, it causes the costs of non-primary silver miners (i.e. byproduct miners) to rise as they get less money for their byproduct silver
  3. Silver costs usually rise in parallel with gold costs, and gold miners produce a lot of the byproduct silver and thus rising silver costs suggest that gold (and other minerals) are costing more to mine

We're still working on completing and publishing a complete FY2013 and first half 2014 all-in costs for the industry, so if you are interested in receiving it and keeping

This article was written by

7.29K Followers
I'm an asset manager at Hebba Alternative Investments with a focus on real assets. In my articles I like to focus on events that affect the macro environment for assets (especially gold, silver, and commodities), and also introduce readers to different metrics that I believe are under-utilized when assessing investments. I'm also involved in an energy & commodity company, Date Palm Resources LLC, and so I love talking commodities and energy which I believe will provide huge opportunities for the strategic investor as we engage in one of the biggest worldwide shifts in transportation and energy in decades. On a more personal note, I'm a firm believer that there can be honesty, morality, and integrity in finance (though its rare) and i'd like to believe that I stick to those principles. Thus I never "pump and dump" stocks, I always list the securities we own, and I take it very seriously when I recommend a company - I do not want to see any investors/readers lose money because of my recommendations.

Analyst’s Disclosure:The author is long PAAS. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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