U.S. - China Currency War: Should the U.S. Fight Back by Defaulting?

Jan. 24, 2011 5:08 AM ET, , , , , 19 Comments
The PolyCapitalist
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Time for less handshaking, more action?China-U.S. relations have dominated this week's headlines with Hu Jintao's official state visit to America. And there is much to talk about with respect to what is arguably the world's most important bilateral relationship.

'Bleeding-hearts' types will no doubt want to focus on human rights issues, such as the ongoing imprisonment of China's recent Nobel Peace Prize winner, Liu Xiaobo, to the China's not so secret effort to wipeout Tibetan civilization.

And those concerned with the military balance of power can point to concerns about Chinese espionage, secret development of sophisticated weaponry like a Chinese stealth fighter, and China's navy contesting free navigation in the South Sea.

The Renminbi Runaround

There is also the matter of U.S.-China economic relations. As far as the U.S. is concerned, the big one is the exchange rate of China's currency, the renminbi (yuan). It is widely agreed that China's currency is undervalued by as much as 20-40%, providing China with an unfair trade advantage. Much has been written about this issue previously here.

Former Secretary of State and and National Security Advisor, Henry Kissinger, appeared on Charlie Rose this week to discuss relations with China. Not surprisingly, Kissinger argued for a diplomatic solution to the renminbi. While acknowledging that he is not economist, Kissinger believes there should be some way to bring the Chinese around on revaluing the renminbi by offering something in return. My question is hasn't the U.S. already tried that ad nauseam?

Throughout modern history the world's trade and currency order has always followed a set of explicit and implicit 'rules of the game', so to speak. Over the last two decades China has benefitted significantly from first having access to the world's markets and later gaining entrance into the World Trade Organization. While WTO rules do not cover exchange rate manipulation, one of the hallmarks

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Mr. Hileman has experience with both startups and well known companies such as Allianz, The Industry Standard, Bank of America, and The Home Depot. He has served on the boards of directors of both publicly traded and private companies. Previously Mr. Hileman co-founded a $300M San Francisco based incubator that financed and launched new technology ventures. At Montgomery Securities he worked in both Equity Research and Corporate Finance, where he executed over a billion dollars in M&A and underwriting transactions for the technology & financial services industries. Mr. Hileman holds an MBA from IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland, after which he completed a post-graduate fellowship with The World Business Academy. He completed his bachelors in Accounting and Economics at the University of Washington, where he was also elected student body president. He is currently a member of www.polar-vision.org team.

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