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Fri, Jan. 31, 2:45 PM
- "We expect emerging market equities to form a base over the next few weeks, and eventually have a better year," says UBS, the team's optimism coming from a belief emerging market economies will generate solid growth in 2014.
- Earnings will be key, says UBS, noting EPS growth has collapsed since 2010, but a pickup to low double-digit growth seams feasible this year thanks to better GDP growth, currency weakness, and margin expansion. Trading at 10.1x forward earnings, EM equities are cheap.
- Favorite countries: China (FXI), Korea (EWY), Mexico (EWW), Peru (EPU), Hungary (GUR, ESR).
- EM ETFs: EEM, VWO, DEM, EDC, DGS, EDZ, EEMV, SCHE, EEB, EDIV, IEMG, DVYE, EEV, EWX, BIK, BKF, PIE, ADRE, HILO, EUM, FNI, EET, GMM, PXH, BBRC, EEMS, EELV, FEMS, DGRE, EEME, EMDD, BICK, DBEM, EMCR, FEM, EWEM, EMBB, EMLB, EVAL, TLTE, EEHB, EGRW, FNDE, EMDG, EMHD, EMSA, EMDR, EMFT, QEM, QDEM
Sep. 23, 2013, 9:57 AM
- Extrapolating the Fed's more dovish stance to emerging markets, JPMorgan upgrades Turkey (TUR) and Peru (EPU) to overweight, where they'll join Mexico (EWM), Thailand (THD, TTF, TF), The Philippines (EPHE), and Taiwan (EWT).
- "Turkey feels like the tapering trade," says the team. "The suffering this summer turns to euphoria as the Fed returns to dovishness and retreats from tapering."
- Taiwan and Mexico rate an overweight because of their exposure to developed world growth, but what about Korea (EWY, FKO, KORU, KORZ)? Typically, the country belongs in this group, but JPMorgan is cautious on high-end tech and thus on Samsung. Taiwan, on the other hand, should benefit from the growth in low-priced smartphones.
- Moved to underweight are Russia (RSX, ERUS, RBL, RSXJ, RUDR) and Colombia (GXG, COLX, ICOL).
- Top 10 individual stock picks include ICICI Bank (IBN), Southern Copper (SCCO), and Cemex (CX).
Jul. 10, 2013, 1:43 PMMorgan Stanley says China's GDP growth could decelerate to a 5% handle in 2014 if the proper policy response isn't crafted to deal with banking sector deleveraging, a prediction which pairs nicely with Capital Economics' discussion of who loses from a Chinese "rebalancing." Commodity producing emerging markets in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are flagged and Barron's has a list of ETFs which may or may not have priced in a China slowdown: EWZ, EPU, ECH, EWT, EWM, and, more generally, EEM. | 1 Comment
May. 23, 2013, 2:46 PMGold's sharp rise today can be attributed to the dollar's drop vs. the yen; when the dollar drops, gold should rise, as their correlation during the past 24 days has hit -86%. A stock sector that's standing out is emerging market gold miners: South Africa’s Sibanye (SBGL), Harmony (HMY) and AngloGold (AU), plus Peru's Buenaventura (BVN) are stronger, even as their corresponding country ETFs (EZA; EPU) are in the red. | 5 Comments
Feb. 12, 2013, 3:44 PMMarkets make opinons, they say, and Brazil's (EWZ) poor performance has managers pulling funds and talking about long-term troubles for the next great country. Money is instead chasing performance in Mexico (EWW), Peru (EPU), and Chile (ECH). A 10% move up in the Bovespa and it's our guess the prospects for Brazil among the adviser crowd will have improved. | Comment!
Dec. 31, 2012, 11:51 AMMore details on iShares' ETF fee hikes: Going to 0.61% from 0.59% (a 3.4% hike) are its Chile Investable Market Fund (ECH), China Small Cap Fund (ECNS), Indonesia Investable Market Fund (EIDO), Israel Capped Investable Market Fund (EIS), Philippines Investable Market Fund (EPHE) , Poland Investable Market Fund (EPOL), All Peru Capped Fund (EPU), Taiwan Fund (EWT), South Korea Fund (EWY), Brazil Fund (EWZ), Brazil Small Cap Fund (EWZS), South Africa Fund (EZA), Thailand Investable Market Fund (THD) and Turkey Investable Market Fund (TUR). | 2 Comments
Feb. 10, 2012, 3:19 PMPeru holds monetary policy steady, keeping its benchmark rate at 4.25% for the 9th consecutive meeting. The central bank sees inflation, currently tripping along at 4.74%, falling to 2% by year's end. Peruvian shares have recovered nicely since the panic surrounding Ollanta Humala's election last spring. EPU +14.7% YTD. | Comment!
Dec. 11, 2011, 9:02 AMThe door is opened for an even harder line against those protesting a $4.8B gold and copper mine to be opened by Newmont (NEM) and Buenaventura (BVN) in Peru after Salomon Lerner - arguably the 2nd most powerful man in government - resigns. President Humala - who would have sided with the protesters a few years back - this week ordered the military to step in against the demonstrators. | 3 Comments
Dec. 5, 2011, 7:41 AMPeruvian president Humala declares a state of emergency in the country's northern region after anti-mining protests forced Newmont Mining (NEM) to suspend a $4.8B gold project. The declaration gives the army sweeping powers, including the right to arrest without warrant. It didn't take long for Humala - only a few years ago taking over mines himself - to get religion. Money makes the mare go. | 2 Comments
Aug. 22, 2011, 3:08 PMWorries Peru's president would be another Hugo Chavez may need a reality check as the new head of state-owned PetroPeru signals his hope for an IPO by the year's end. "Oilnomics 101," says Humberto Campodonico, means PetroPeru needs to start producing oil, meaning it needs to raise cash. | 2 Comments
Jul. 28, 2011, 5:45 PMOllanta Humala is sworn in as President of Peru. Among his first announcements is a promise to raise the minimum wage starting in August. He also plans to reorient the energy sector to keep more of the country's gas from being exported, and see that mining earnings go towards eradicating poverty. Crashing following his election, Peruvian shares have regained much of their loss. EPU +14% this month. | 12 Comments
Jun. 21, 2011, 1:13 PMA check of the Peru ETF (EPU) finds it retesting the low it hit as shares collapsed in the wake of Ollanta Humala's election. A poll shows the president-elect, a pal of Hugo Chavez, but promising policies more in line with Brazil's Lula, with a 70% approval rating. Down 25% YTD, EPU remains higher Y/Y, +9.5% . | 3 Comments
Jun. 9, 2011, 4:37 PMPeruvian shares continue to climb back from their post-election crash, EPU +2.5% to within 5% of its pre-election close. President-elect Humala makes Brazil his first foreign stop, saying the Brazilian model of "macroeconomic stability with social inclusion" is what he envisions for Peru. | 1 Comment
Jun. 8, 2011, 12:52 PMLow inflation and waning demand for credit mean Peru's central bank can pause from rate hikes when it meets tomorrow ... this is the opinion of the Finance Minister, who quickly adds, "it's the central bank's decision" - so much for independence. Shares continue to bounce from the post-election crash. EPU +3.1%. | 2 Comments
Jun. 7, 2011, 11:02 AM
Jun. 6, 2011, 12:19 PM
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