On November 12th, Research in Motion (RIMM) announced that it would launch its BlackBerry 10 on January 30, 2013. In response, shares jumped 6% from their Friday close of $8.54 to Monday's open of $9.05, but pulled back slightly to $8.81 before market close. The market's positive reaction to the announcement is due to the fact that RIMM has delayed the launch of the BlackBerry 10 -- a product that is widely thought of as RIMM's last shot at redemption -- not once, but twice now; and it's just reassuring to know that there is now a set date for something to happen. But despite the back rub from RIMM's launch team, I am still bearish on RIMM's near-term prospects.
Being that the BlackBerry 10 is a "bet the company" product, I look specifically at two things that will determine the product's success following launch:
- Brand: How do consumers perceive the BlackBerry?
- Value: Can the BlackBerry deliver something to the user that current smartphones do not already offer?
From 2011 to date, what was once affectionately known as the "CrackBerry," experienced a marked drop in US market share, falling from nearly 50% to 1%. Furthermore, the Company's only markets (India and Indonesia) where the phone is still relevant are giving way to other players such as Samsung, HTC, and Sony. In the US, the only remaining users of the smartphone are employees in more traditional industries such as government, financial services and legal -- and even these people have a separate personal phone (probabilities would suggest that it is not a BlackBerry).
The decline in market share, most likely due to the stream of releases of BlackBerrys that offered little more than marginal redesigns, has been extremely damaging to the line's brand - and when it comes to consumers (individual or enterprise), brand can count
