Chesapeake Energy Needs More Change To Become A Successful Turnaround

Tim Travis
5.83K Followers

April 1st marked a day of transformation for Chesapeake Energy (CHK), as longtime CEO and founder Aubrey McClendon has officially stepped down, while former COO Steve Dixon has become the interim CEO. Chesapeake's history reads like a Greek tragedy of sorts, filled with pioneering exploration efforts and technological developments, mixed with gross financial mismanagement and huge conflicts of interests. In a hypothetical world where energy prices only went up, Chesapeake's mentality of land acquisition fueled by excessive debt would be a good one, but in the real world this strategy has exposed the company to huge risks, and paved the way for unattractive asset divestitures. While Chesapeake remains a very strong vertically integrated operator, I'm concerned that the company hasn't brought in a CEO from the outside that could take a fresh perspective to the job. Moving forward, I believe that Chesapeake could potentially be an attractive play on recovering natural gas prices and a more responsible financial structure could be a catalyst, but as of now I prefer other undervalued stocks in the sector such as Devon Energy (DVN), BP (BP) and Apache Corporation (APA).

At a recent price of $20.35 and with 643MM shares outstanding, Chesapeake Energy has a market capitalization of roughly $13.09 billion. As of 12/31/2012, Chesapeake had $3.1 billion in preferred stock at liquidation value, $12.8 billion in long-term debt (net of cash), and another $4.1 billion in net working capital and other long-term liabilities. This equates to an adjusted enterprise value of roughly $33 billion, while the most recent PV-10 based on 10-year average NYMEX prices is $27.9 billion, and based on SEC pricing the PV-10 is $17.8 billion. At first glance, this doesn't scream to be a bargain stock, but it is important to keep in mind that Chesapeake is vertically integrated, and has huge acreage holdings that could potentially be sold or developed profitably, depending on market conditions of course. Chesapeake has been a

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5.83K Followers
Tim Travis is a veteran deep value investor and money manager. Travis has extensive experience in traditional investments such as stocks and bonds, in addition to having a unique methodology of combining options and distressed investing with value investing to generate income, reduce risk, and to add an element of timing. Currently Tim Travis is the founder, Chief Executive Officer, and Chief Investment Officer of T&T Capital Management. T&T Capital Management is a Coto de Caza, California based Registered Investment Advisor that manages accounts for both individual and institutional investors. Travis was born in Laguna Beach, California and became captivated with the value investment philosophy in his early teens through reading books written by Benjamin Graham, and the shareholder letters from Berkshire Hathaway, and the Buffett Partnership L.P. Tim Travis became intrigued by the notion that stocks aren’t just pieces of paper but instead are fractional shares of a business that can be analyzed by comprehensive analysis of the balance sheet, income statement, and statement of cash flows. He majored in Business and Economics at the University of California Santa Barbara, graduating in 2004, and he also had the privilege of studying international economics at the University of Richmond in Florence, Italy. Tim Travis got his feet wet in finance working for both Scottrade and AG Edwards & Sons during his college career. Upon graduation Travis worked at the Vanguard Group in Scottsdale, Arizona. It was there that he learned that most mutual funds underperform their respective indexes, and he became disappointed at the overwhelming diversification in most mutual funds, that really makes most of them function as “closet” index funds. After leaving the Vanguard Group, Travis worked for a small futures and commodities firm in Mission Viejo, California. It was there that Tim developed an adept knowledge of options, particularly the selling of options to take advantage of the higher probabilities involved. It was also during this time in his life that Travis began reading everything he could possibly find on value investing. Some of his role models in the field are Warren Buffett, Martin Whitman, Bruce Berkowitz, Seth Klarman, Peter Lynch, Glenn Greenberg, etc. After working with clients from around the world Travis broke away and started T&T Investment Management L.L.C. At T&T, Travis refined his unique methodology combining value investing, with the selling of options to generate income and reduce risk. T&T experienced explosive growth by partnering with a local commodities firm. After several years Tim Travis realized that without controlling the majority of the company any longer, he didn’t have full control over the company’s strategic direction. Divergent business principles caused Tim Travis to break away and form T&T Capital Management. At TTCM which Tim Travis is the sole owner, he is allowed to offer only the best products and services, at a reasonable price, without conflicts of interest. T&T Capital Management’s goal is build wealth for both individual and institutional investors, and to accomplish these goals Travis as Chief Investment Officer employs his deep value investing techniques. Each account is managed on a day to day, personal basis, and there are no cookie cutter portfolios defined only by one’s age and risk tolerance. Every security is researched and hand selected by Travis and his research team. T&T Capital Management takes pride in first class customer service and research which is regularly communicated to clients for education purposes.

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