The Paradigm Is Shifting; Fossil Fuels Are Becoming Fossils

Oct. 01, 2014 1:42 PM ET, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 87 Comments
Larry, a Futurist
75 Followers

Summary

  • From 12/21/12 to 9/21/14 my Sustainable Energy Portfolio is up 192%.
  • My Fossil Fuel reference portfolio is up 13.5%.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 32.0.
  • The S&P 500 is up 40.6%.
  • The Sustainable Energy Portfolio crushed the indices while the Fossil Fuels underperformed.

Author's Note. 8/10/14. GT Advanced Technology, one of the companies in my "Sustainable Energy" portfolio, has filed for bankruptcy protection.

On Dec. 21, 2012, I put $16 million imaginary dollars in equal imaginary investments in 16 real energy companies; $8.0 million in the Sustainable Energy space and $8.0 million in the fossil fuel space. I published my inaugural article on the subject on Popular Logistics, here, my most recent article on Popular Logistics and Seeking Alpha.

While both portfolios are up from Dec. 2012, and both are down from August, 2014, the Sustainable Energy portfolio is up from $8.0 M to $23.3M, or 191.6%. In the same time frame the Fossil Fuel portfolio us up from $8.0 M to $9.1 M, or 13.5%. The reference indices are also up; the Dow Industrials climbing from 13,091 to 17,280; the S&P 500 climbing from 1,430 to 2,010.

This, to me, indicates a paradigm shift.

The Sustainable Energy portfolio is composed of Cree (CREE) and Lighting Sciences (OTCQB:LSCG) in the LED space, GT Advanced Tech (GTAT), which at the time made solar ovens for cooking PV wafers, and today is diversifying, First Solar (FSLR) and Sunpower Corp. (SPWR) in the solar space, Vestas (OTCPK:VWSYF), a wind company, Solazyme (SZYM) a biofuel company and Next Era Energy (NEE), a utility.

The fossil fuel companies are the oil companies British Petroleum (BP), Chevron Texaco (CVX), Conoco Phillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM) and RD Shell (RDS.A), the coal company Peabody Coal (BTU), and Haliburton (HAL) and Transocean (RIG), companies in the offshore oil and oil and gas drilling service industries.

The data are summarized beginning in Table 1, below.

Summary Data
Portfolio 12/21/12 09/19/14 Delta %
Sustainable Energy 8,000,000 23,328,433 15,328,433 191.61%
Fossil Fuel 8,000,000 9,081,164 1,081,164 13.51%
DJI 13,091 17,280 4,189 32.00%

This article was written by

75 Followers
A futurist, I invest with one eye on Sustainability and the other on Value.

Analyst’s Disclosure:The author is long CREE, FSLR, GTAT, LSCG, SPWR, SZYM, VWSYF. The author wrote this article themselves, and it expresses their own opinions. The author is not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). The author has no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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