Hurco's Tiny Boat Facing Choppy Seas

Stephen Simpson
20.41K Followers

Summary

  • Hurco generated respectable results in a very tough market, but underlying organic revenue, gross margin, and order growth contraction should not be ignored.
  • Hurco's orders outpaced Germany's domestic machine tool order growth and didn't fall as much in the U.S. as the overall industry, suggesting ongoing share growth.
  • Mid single-digit revenue growth and margin leverage can support a fair value above $40, but Hurco is unfollowed and cyclical, so investors need to be aware of the risks.

I don't envy the job facing Hurco's (NASDAQ:HURC) managers today. I believe that this small industrial company remains a very overlooked manufacturer of high quality high-spec machine tools, but that is a very tough business to be in these days. As I've written in past pieces on companies like MSC Industrial (NYSE:MSM), demand for cutting and metalworking tools has plunged in the U.S. during this industrial slowdown and demand appears to be even worse in Asia.

I still believe that patience will pay with the stock. The company has released an interesting new control console (Max 5) and the acquisition of Milltronics and Takumi meaningfully expands both the company's product lines and geographic exposures. A machine tool company is a quintessentially cyclical company, but Hurco does look undervalued to me today.

A Mixed, But Generally Good, Set Of Results

Although the North American market has gotten ugly at a fast pace, Hurco delivered a set of fiscal fourth quarter results that were better than I'd expected in most respects. While some readers may regard it as self-aggrandizing that I compare Hurco's results to my own model, there is no sell-side coverage that I'm aware of to use as an alternative benchmark.

Hurco's reported revenue rose more than 5% in this final quarter, rising 14% in constant currency but declining 0.5% in organic constant currency terms. The end result number was about 9% higher than my projection, with the core organic business falling off less than I'd feared.

On a regional basis, North American sales fell 1.5% organically, but rose 27% as reported due to the addition of Milltronics. Sales in Europe were down 9% as reported, but up 4% in constant currency. Sales to Asia-Pacific were up 28% as reported, but down 28% on an organic constant currency basis.

Gross

This article was written by

20.41K Followers
Stephen Simpson is a freelance financial writer and investor.Spent close to 15 years on the Street (sell-side, buy-side, equities, bonds).

Analyst’s Disclosure:I am/we are long HURC, MSM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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