1) There is a notable shift towards non-operator unlocked 'vanilla' handsets. Globally, about 50% of phones are sold through operator channels - although it is much higher in operator-controlled markets like the US and Japan, as well as those with an addiction to subsidy, like the UK. Various trends are emerging that will start to reduce this in 2008, although change will be slow in markets where operators retain stiff control over retail outlets.
- Firstly, the US is starting to wake up to the idea of unlocked phones, courtesy of non-AT&T (T) iPhone angst and the new 'bring your own phone' openness pitch by Verizon (VZ).
- Secondly, Moore's law & scale economies are bringing down the price of really quite good non-subsidised phones to below important thresholds like €100 or £100.
- Thirdly, operators' attempts to lock people into 18 or 24 month contracts will mean they get hungry for cool new devices long before they're due for upgrades.
- And fourthly, some segments like VoIP users or enterprises, will recognize that 'there's no such thing as a free lunch' and realize they're better off with vanilla devices rather than subsidized ones locked-down and larded with operator menus.
2) The European Commission cracks down on data roaming prices. You've been repeatedly warned that this is on the watch list. Yet many operators still charge around €10 per megabyte for roaming for mainstream customers. There are a few exceptions - Vodafone (VOD)'s €12 per day cap, and Three's free data while on-net. But as we move to flatter networks, flatter tariffs and split-tunnels breaking out Internet traffic in the radio access network, the current prices start to look
