Personal Rapid Transit: Preempting the Need for Oil in Urban Transport

There are investment opportunities in changing our economic lifeblood from oil to ingenuity, preempting the need for oil in urban transport. 

Unexpected innovations (positive Black Swans) such as personal computers, the Internet, lasers, penicillin, often require preparation to allow investment.  The objective of this paper is to alert investors so those interested can exploit current opportunities and organize their charter to for direct investments in the Personal Rapid Transit [PRT] industry - the Physical-Internet.

Government management of infrastructure created our oil addiction. Bureaucracies developed plans to maximize consistency (know-how), minimizing the messy process of innovation (know-what). For a century the technologies of Ford, Bell, Edison and the Wright Bothers have been frozen in time (Bell until 1984). Alternative technologies based on computer networks, such as PRT, have not been allowed because they were not in the plan. The consequence of a century of better know-how but the same know-what has resulted in Peak Oil and Global Warming.

Peak Oil, with rising gas prices, is forcing a change and an investment opportunity that will cause the cost to travel a mile to drop from 56 cents to 4 cents. This savings applies to about 4 billion of the 8 billion miles Americans drive daily. The Physical-Internet will grow in the next 15 years to about 1.4 million miles of packet-switched, ultra-light rail networks. The world market is about 5 times larger.

Following is a summary of the paradigm shift, PRT compared to existing transport modes, how to invest today, status of the industry and companies that are leading in the PRT effort.

Paradigm Shift:  PRT is a double paradigm shift from individual devices to networks that system integrate transportation and power generation:

• PRT is a shift from moving a ton to move a person in congested, repetitive travel, towards moving just the person in ultra-light podcars at 100 to 200 watt-hours per mile (400 to 200 miles per gallon electrical equivalent). Early networks have a 1-5 year payback.
• PRT energy efficiency enables a synergy with distributed natural power sources.  Example; solar collectors, 6-foot wide mounted over the top of the rails can gather 12,000 vehicle-miles of power per day per mile of rail. Power collection in transportation has 1-5 year paybacks for solar PV.

Here is a list of how PRT is similar to existing modes of transportation; how PRT is the "personalization of mass transit,” a physical-Internet:

• CSX television ad notes that railroads can “move a ton of freight 423 miles using a gallon of fuel.” PRT is ultra-light rail networks that provide similar efficiencies.
• Based on riders per day, elevators are the most successful form of public transportation; PRT is a network of horizontal-elevators.  Integrating computer networks with roller coaster mechanics permits on-demand mobility of people and cargo stream from origin to destination non-stop.
• Automated warehouses use computer networks to move pallets between addresses.  PRT expands the concept to an economic community.
• The automobile has a 97% market share of trips in the US and an 80% market share in Europe. This is proof the personal car is the right size mobility packet, just the wrong mass, power consumption and randomness of behavior for congested transport in modern cities.  PRT provides the personal mobility of a chauffeured car at the cost to operate an elevator.

US Transportation is currently 97% dependent on oil and consumes 26.6 Quadrillion BTU’s annually.  Re-tooling transportation to sustainability in the next 15 years will provide better service while cutting oil demand by 60-80%. Those savings can be taken as profit.

How to invest:

• Invest in natural resource companies.  Vast quantities of materials will be required to build 1.4 million miles of ultra-light rail. JPods has made a strategic alliance with Novis because of their ability to recycle aluminum. Investing in supporting companies is similar to investing in oil services companies.
• Invest in solar and wind collection manufacturing companies. The need for natural power collection technologies 6-foot wide by 1.4 million miles long will change the economies of scale in those companies.  The short paybacks on these technologies will allow rapid churning of innovation.  Instead of building large arrays in deserts and losing a significant amount of power in transmission, use the power where it is collected and make that use very efficient.  If you have used a solar powered calculator, you have experienced the principle of tailoring efficiency to the capabilities of distributed power sources.
• If you are a publicly traded company that can supply the needs of this industry, forming strategic alliances with PRT companies may boost your stock price. POSCO/Vectus and British Airport Authority (BAA)/Advanced Transport Systems Ltd lead in this category.
• If you are an investor arrange your investment charter so you can take advantage of this industry within 8 months.
• If you can make private investments, there are a number of opportunities.  Some listed below: 
• It will take 4 to 8 months for the first modern PRT networks to deploy and demonstrate 1 to 3 year paybacks.  After the first modern networks come on line there will be public investment opportunities directly in PRT companies.
• Author's note. The task of re-tooling transportation is gigantic. Facing an overwhelming task, take the ant approach to eating an elephant, small bites, lots of friends. Nearly every company in this market will make money or get acquired. The big winners will be those that mimic Internet success with a distributed collaborative model, small bites, lots of friends (Google (GOOG), YouTube, Ebay (EBAY), Apple (AAPL), Dell (DELL), etc...).

Current status of the Industry:  Like the computer industry of the early 1980's there is an odd mix of participants. Investors range from sovereign wealth funds (Abu Dhabi at Masdar), industrials (POSCO at Uppsala Sweden and British Airport Authority at Heathrow Airport) to an eclectic batch of inventors/geeks/garage companies (links below). The military-industrial companies that built the first systems in response to the 1973 Oil Embargo dropped out of the market when government contracts ended after the Embargo (Boeing at Morgantown and Messerschmitt with Cabinetaxi).

Infrastructure has been constrained for nearly 100 years by government central planning and regulated monopolies over the power generation and transportation.  Full development of the PRT industry requires government policy change from central planning to performance governing (defining standards which will allow access to public rights of way):

• Communications infrastructure was de-monopolizing in 1984. When the central planning changed to performance standards, century old analog networks were re-tooled to digital, fiber and wireless. Messy innovation was allowed to create vast number of jobs and demand for high tech products and services.  PRT networks will mirror the explosive development of the Internet.
• The German government de-monopolization of power generation infrastructure with Feed-in Tariffs created dramatic investment opportunities in the solar and wind industries. PRT shortens the payback time from 10-20 years to 1-7 years for large solar arrays integrated into transport networks.  PRT will create more demand for solar and wind systems.
• Early investments will have to focus on locations where governments grant rights of way for achieving performance standards.  It is relatively trivial to achieve standards such as 100 miles per gallon and 10 times safer than automobiles.  The cities, states and countries that allow innovation will invest directly in PRT.  Those places are also the locations that will create many jobs.

The elegant simplicity of PRT is a great advantage as we struggle with depleting resources. Rising oil prices will help break down bureaucratic barriers to innovation but will also complicate getting the resources needed to re-tool.  The current crisis is not from a conspiracy.  Far worse, well-meaning bureaucracies are protecting us from the messy innovation.  Well meaning bureaucracies created the monoculture of oil addiction, the infrastructure equivalent to the great Potato Famines.

Oil Prices, Upwardly Unstable will Drive PRT Adoption
Oil prices are unstable, but only upward (negative Black Swan). Small changes can go either way, but the whoppers will jump oil prices only higher.  There is nearly an unlimited number of low probability whoppers.  Combined risk of one or more whoppers occurring looks like a guarantee.

Demand destruction is meaningless in this forest of whoppers.  Demand destruction is even more meaningless when an addict is facing a depleting supply.  Oil is depleting.  May 2005 was Peak Oil.  The rules of supply and demand may influence but they no longer control oil prices. And, there are two sides to oil addiction. Consumers are addicted to oil use and will pay (or borrow) the costs. Oil exporters are addicted to their current revenues and will cut production to maintain current revenues. Pricing power is in the hands of exporters. Mid-June 2008 the Saudis announced a production increase, Libya announced a reduction; oil prices climbed.

Prices will further increase when shortages occur. EIA reported Inventories are at the bottom of the range that prevents most outages. When we fall below that range betting on higher prices seems a zero risk. Outages may create panic buying, adding to price.

Oil's supply chain is long, fragile and requires inventories of the correct type at the correct location to ballast small bumps. JPods version of PRT has a distributed power collection system.

click to enlarge

Imports into the US Gulf (purple line) are below the worst of Katrina (red line). If there is a significant hurricane anywhere between Venezuela and Louisiana, inventories will likely plunge and panic seems not far behind.

The world faces an oil deficit 3 times worse than in the 1973 Oil Embargo. World exports, (Production minus Producing Country Domestic Consumption) is the correct measure of Peak Oil. Peak Oil was in 2005 at 46.342 mbpd. Deficits accumulated since 2005 are 3 times larger than the deficit from the 1973 Oil Embargo (Ref WSJ)

The Export Land Model for oil depletion indicates available world exports will plunge by 2011. This is the $500 a barrel referenced by Dr. Hirsch and Matt Simmons. Prices will climb because of depletion and because fixed costs will have to be spread over a much smaller product delivery.

There may be small downward price adjustments but all the big moves will be up. The problem with investing in oil is at some price point economic fatigue or outright collapse seems likely. On June 25th Deutsche Bank's Chief Energy Economist warned of world economic collapse at $200 a barrel. The exact price is hard to fix because the economy has momentum; stop growing energy and the effects take time to display. Momentum decay can be seen by combining Peak Growth of oil and foreclosures actions to EIA's graph of Real Disposable Personal Income and oil prices.

For long term sustainability plant a garden and invest in ways to change the our economic lifeblood from oil to ingenuity.

Invest in Ingenuity
In response to the 1973 Oil Embargo, the US Senate directed efforts to find solutions. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment Study B-244854 identified Personal Rapid Transit [PRT] and Automated Guideways as the solution to sustainable urban transport. Morgantown's PRT system opened in 1975 and has delivered 110 million injury-free, electrically-powered passenger miles. The technology is essentially a physical-internet, packet-switched computer networks that move physical packets.

In the case of JPods version of PRT (the company this author works for), solar collectors 6-foot wide mounted over the rails gather 12,000 vehicle-miles of power per mile of rail per typical day (2.5 mega watt-hours per day). The distributed nature of the transportation network can be used to gather distributed nature power sources. Payback on these integrated ribbons of mobility and power is 1 to 5 years.

Masdar, the zero-carbon city being built in Abu Dhabi will use this technology for its internal transportation. That network will be solar powered. More networks are being built at Heathrow Airport and Uppsala Sweden. JPods has an agreement to network a large mall in Minnesota.

Investing in this industry is risky due to its early stage and the complexity of getting rights of way; bureaucracies do not have a check list for innovation. Most PRT companies are looking for capital but few are public. To aid investors interested in looking at this early stage industry, here are links to a couple of industry sites, the known companies and several background. In the interest of disclosure the author is the founder and primary shareholder of JPods. It is my personal opinion that this industry will expand dramatically driven by 5 factors: simplicity, lower costs, oil prices, zero-emissions and the service of a chauffeured car at the cost to operate an elevator.

Industry Sites: Advanced Transit Association and University of Washington

Companies: There may be others. Advanced Transport Systems Ltd, Coaster, JPods, MISTER, MonicPRT, SkyCab, SkyTran, Skyweb Express, Vectus

Studies: There are many additional studies, EU, New Jersey, Princeton, Swedish, Northern VA, Canadian

PRT Times Better Background
Venture investors often sight the need for a 10X or 10 times improvement of a breakthrough technology over current practices. Following is a "X" better table for a number of categories.

	Current	JPods	Times Better		Background
Costs
Costs, Operating	56	4	14X		Cents per vehicle mile traveled (cars verses JPods)
Costs, Capital	100	10	10X		$million per mile to build (light rail verses JPods)
Human Factors
Safety	14	0.005	2,800X		Fewer deaths (cars kill 14 per 100,000)
Access	24	4	6X		% that cannot drive/operate, children under 5 years old must be accompanied
Congestion	48	5	10X		Hours lost to congestion each year
Capacity, Cars	4800	4800	1X		*Same capacity as cars, 4 seats every 3 seconds
Capacity, Bus	600	4800	8X		*Bus 5 min apart with 50 seats verses JPods
Capacity, Trains	1200	4800	4X		*Trains 10 min apart with 200 seats verses JPods
					*JPods can have multiple rails is same right of way and time between vehicles will drop to milli-seconds.
Environmental
Emissions	1.7	0.0008	2125X		Pounds of CO2 per passenger mile
Conservation	250	4	63X		Parasitic Energy Consumption, 2000 lbs. time 25 start-stops per commute
Land Use	50	2	25X		Width of right of way, feet
Security
Defense	492 billion	1	5 billion X		1% the estimated cost of Iraq War
Trade Deficit	584 billion	1	584 billion X		2006 Trade Deficit for cars and oil
Currency Value	Cause	Hope	stability		Oil addiction weakens the dollar
Peak Oil	Cause	Hope	life		Life if the Return for Solving Peak Oil
Climate Change	Cause	Hope	life		Life if the Return for Solving Climate Change

Summary
There are many uncertainties. The primary risk is the question if government policies will allow the messy process of innovating. When allowed, the simplicity of PRT will likely create powerful examples of success. Efficiency gains, changing 60-70% of current costs into profit or competitive advantage, may drive wider adoption.

There is a profit in saving people time and money.

Comments

[Philly Jim:]

Excellent ideas but unfortunately won't work in the U.S.. Too many of the criminal element occupy the cities there and would destroy them as fast as they destroy free housing; it's not worth investing in U.S. cities any longer, go to the more civilized far East instead!

2008 Jul 02 08:51 AM

[cjwirth:]

Personal Mass Transit is a great idea, but we will trouble with raising the capital, and cost of energy needed for new major infrastructure will be high. Global oil production is now declining, from 85 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. At the same time demand will increase 14%. This is like a 45% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted. The price of oil will soon be unbelievably high, and so too will capital costs. We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems. This is documented in a free 45 page report that can be downloaded and distributed/ emailed: www.peakoilassociates....

2008 Jul 02 09:36 AM

[Bill James:]

The rails and networks will need to be protected. Our expectation is that the neighborhoods systems operate in will largely own the networks. Stations will be manned and there will be interactive security mechanisms.

There is a need to build at least 5,000 miles of rail by 2010 if we are to reach a tipping point to preserve most of our current social base. This will be difficult but is possible.

2008 Jul 02 01:29 PM

[Marsden Burger:]

Philly,

Do not sell our cities short in the nature of their inhabitants or the ability to keep our transit systems safe. As the past head of operations for the fully automated Detroit People Mover, the most crime and vandalism-free transit system in the United States, the realities of what automation can do for transit systems and their security has yet to be recognized by the existing transit industry. High service levels – passengers picked up quickly at stations – and platform video camera, have kept the Detroit system at a crime level that is truly non-existent. The system has open artwork of a quality that matches any in public spaces anywhere in the world, with tours coming to the system for the artwork alone – with no vandalism.

PRT systems can be expected to be superior in their security to our People Mover because of further reduced waiting time in the station area, and greater security in the stations themselves. The Detroit People Mover provides average wait times of 90 seconds - major studies done by the German Government showed that the Cabintaxi technology (the technology that I am involved with) would handle rush hour traffic with the average wait time less than 60 seconds, and in off peak times it could be expected that vehicles would be waiting on passengers. The elevated tracks are not reachable for intrusion and are shrouded; making it extremely difficult to throw foreign objects into harms way – a situation that is for all practical purposes non-existent on the People Mover even though it would be comparably easy to do.

Philly, your concerns are well understood; fortunately, this is a situation where advanced systems offer a bright future that is already well under control.

2008 Jul 03 06:02 PM

[Andrew Atkin:]

The "physical internet" is very close. Born out of the evolution of PRT (refer to the ULTra system in particular) and new automated road-based transport technologies, we wil see, very soon, tiny "micro cars" that can drive themselves for freight. The will at first be the size of a household bucket. Not only will they dramatically improve transport efficiency, but they will also redifine the logistics of modern living and producing.

The physical internet is certainly the "next big thing".

The reader might like to review my own website on this topic:

andrewatkin3.googlepag...

2008 Jul 03 06:45 PM

[Marsden Burger:]

Between 1900 and 1915 (approximately,) our nation built 50,000 miles of interurban rail. It was built by the private sector because the systems offered better service than the competing horse and wagon, or the mainline rail systems.

Because of the bureaucratic situation mentioned above that controls the existing transit world, the realities of small vehicle transit system, like PRT, are not understood. Small vehicle automated transit systems will provide a service level in the urban area that is vastly superior to the automobile at $2.00 a gallon gasoline. Small vehicle systems are a step forward in transportation, not just an ecological thing to do.

Because of the price of gasoline reaching $4.00 a gallon, we are watching as our government moves to appropriate increased funding for conventional mass transit systems. (They should have been doing this for some time.) Unfortunately, accepting conventional mass transit as our future, means we are forcing our population back into ineffective systems they do not want to use and accepting a reduction in our standard of living. When it is made clear that the government is not able to fund transit the private sector will come forward to put up the money – as is presently underway here in Detroit for more conventional rail systems along the Woodward Corridor. When the private sector starts to understand that small vehicle automated systems are dramatically superior to existing rail technology, and the automobile in true urban areas, the bureaucracy will be ignored, and the private sector will fund these systems. There will be dramatic increases in value through superior service, as has always been the history of transportation innovation. This value can be captured in many ways.

Small vehicle systems at this time are as little understood as the internet when it started. This market is not easy to see through. In 1980 I sat with the leadership of Boeing’s automated ground transportation group as we tried to figure some way to get the Cabintaxi technology saved and under the Boeing umbrella. While we were successful in getting the technology saved eventually, not with Boeing. Boeing management took the position that, while they recognized that small vehicle systems would be the future of transit in the world, they would not spend a dime to break the market.

It is poignant to read the final efforts of Boeing in the late 70’s as they lost in their fight to save the Advanced Group Rapid Transit Program, describing how automated small vehicles could provide for a system covering a far greater area than the Washington Metro, at far less cost, providing superior service, and paying for all of its operation out of the fare box. Boeing’s request went unheeded as they pled to congress to, “invest in innovation, and not to turn your backs on tomorrow.”

For many reasons, 5,000 miles by 2010 will be impossible; 50,000 by 2020 will be a piece of cake – funded by the private sector.

2008 Jul 03 07:47 PM

[Ken Gow:]

Let’s not panic about oil prices. "Cheap" oil may have reached a peak but new sources of expensive oil (including bio fuels, oil sands and Iraqi oil) will be on line in 5 or so years time dropping prices to $50 a barrel.

Having said that, global warming and fears of oil supply stability will drive the direction of new investments in housing and transportation. Remember though that the best technology doesn't necessarily win in the marketplace and intelligent highways, plug in hybrid drive and robotic control will give the automobile extra life.

I believe that PRT will grow from a niche market in new Asian cities to replace and improve most of the transit networks across the world. Of companies in the field, mention should be made of Magnemotion. They probably have the best maglev technology yet developed.

2008 Jul 04 10:24 PM

[Bill James:]

Ken, I am afraid you are completely wrong about the price of oil and time. Oil's supply chain has started collapsing elsewhere in the world. World exports are declining. There are some mega-projects coming on line but they will have trouble matching the combined depletion of existing fields and growing domestic demand in oil producing countries.

I do believe PRT will start in niche markets. I will add Magnemotion to a list that I am starting.

2008 Jul 05 05:46 PM

[gdstark:]

Excellent article & discussion! Not what I usually find googling PRT. And the "Physical-Internet" is wonderful...dead on.

> Invest in solar and wind collection manufacturing companies

I would differ on this point. PRT should be developed as energy source agnostic. I happen to believe the source will be almost entirely nuclear. You can't rely on solar on those cloudy days without needless investment in batteries.

Ken Gow said...
> Let’s not panic about oil prices. "Cheap" oil may have reached a peak but new sources of expensive oil (including bio fuels,

What!? I thought we finally put the nail in the biofuels coffin. If ever there was an idea that didn't pass basic high school physics muster, it's biofuels. I missed all your other points.

btw, here's my own vision for the PRT future...

www.PRTProject.com

gary

2008 Jul 27 09:52 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

OK,

I get your point.

I SHOULD go and major in engineering and do the world a favor, and not major in finance right since I have no idea what I want to do anyways?

2008 Nov 02 08:28 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

hmm

2008 Nov 02 08:41 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

unless of course your like what, asking me to present this project instead on tuesday? lol.

or are you trying to recruit me for.. specifically what?

2008 Nov 02 08:42 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

sec..

2008 Nov 02 08:47 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

yeah eletrically powered mass transit will slowly creep up to be the more readily useable technology, er "should" type of thing.
In colorado they have a bus system that actually works if your trying to get to and from the grociery store or w/e you can actually use the busses there.
There FREE and they run like every 3 or 5 minutes or something.
Forget what city it was that I spent 2 weeks at, but mass transit for the highest congested areas will be the way to go...

let me guess like at ASU? ... I need some sleep before I look at it all and give you an opinion on it.

2008 Nov 02 08:59 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

andrewatkin3.googlepag...

beyond the fact that that picture is from the inside of a sports car. not from a rail tech piece.

2008 Nov 02 09:03 AM

[OctoberFaith:]

I am so tempted to take the next round of trading currencies. but even for me that would be off base.
and yeah go with the rail project.

2008 Nov 02 09:50 AM

[Pangolin:]

I think one of the most appealing aspects of PRT is that it would allow for delivery of palletized freight pods to downtown stations and large shopping centers. This would greatly reduce the the number of large delivery vehicles on the roads and make bicycling a more favorable option.

Also, Jpod style, suspended rail systems would be cheap enough to run lines out to rural whistlestops instead of maintaining rural roadways in peak condition. This could allow delivery of fresh fruits, vegetables, milk and eggs directly to urban markets without using trucks or drivers. This kind of "milk run" was one of the original functions of electric trolleys at the turn of the last century.

PRT rail systems could be cheaper to install per-mile than maintaining asphalt roadways in rural areas. In California rural counties are already abandoning some asphalt roads and converting them to gravel due to maintenance costs. This isn't going to get better with the fall of Wall Street and the loss of property tax revenues.

2008 Dec 16 04:02 AM

[Piotr Anweiler:]

We have too many pessimists around; we should have the PRT long time ago. This is the best solution for our crowded cities, empty pockets and green environment. Bill I fully support you.

Jan 22 01:28 PM

[vertical wi...:]

This new millennium as seen many great changes and perhaps the most notable has been the shift in consciousness amongst the masses toward “sustainable living”. A major factor in sustainable living is renewable energy. Yes, the old-fashioned windmill is back and with a bang. Except this time instead of just mechanical energy, that mechanical energy is turned into electricity by the vertical axis wind turbine.

May 22 03:03 AM

[vertical wi...:]

This new millennium as seen many great changes and perhaps the most notable has been the shift in consciousness amongst the masses toward “sustainable living”. A major factor in sustainable living is renewable energy. Yes, the old-fashioned windmill is back and with a bang. Except this time instead of just mechanical energy, that mechanical energy is turned into electricity by the vertical wind turbine.

May 22 03:04 AM