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John Miller  

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  • Newmont Vs. AngloGold: Balance Sheet Differences Key To Futures [View article]
    Good catch/point that AU's "low" price makes its debt to cap look bad. But it is a stretch to say the balance sheets are similar. Go to Morningstar and look at the maturities and yield's on Newmont's debt. Also, it is generous to say AU is rapidly reducing costs when they have been so high. And keep in mind those AISC cost figures don't include the $50+ per ounce financing costs. AU might be a typical value trap. If prices go down they can't service their close maturity debts. If prices go up, they were better off holding CC&V. On the plus side their DRC mine is humming. But Randgold deserves more of the credit there in my opinion. Let's see if these earnings materialize finally for AU.
    Jun 19, 2015. 09:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Vs. AngloGold: Balance Sheet Differences Key To Futures [View article]
    Thanks for the comment.

    The way you are looking at it is an over-simplification. As of Dec. 2014 Waihi only has 360K oz of probable reserves (0 proven), though there are resources to explore. The main Martha pit is closing next year. Underground at Trio is done. Interestingly, the new operation (Correnso) involves blasting under residential housing (don't worry, they will post a schedule) and some of the ore body must be left in place because it is too close to the surface. The life of the mine and total gold remaining is "poor". Though grades are good, there are higher costs relative to pit mining.

    Redo your calculation based on total remaining ounces and how much will be cleared on each ounce after costs to better judge the relative values.

    As way of a joke, what you propose is akin to comparing a 2000 Honda Civic to a 2010 Honda Accord on a dollar per wheel basis. The Civic seems great at $250 a wheel compared to the $2500 per wheel the Accord costs you, right?
    Jun 19, 2015. 03:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Making All The Right Moves [View article]
    My understanding capex at Merian is projected to be closer to 1 billion (100% basis). Second, could there be a second need for cash (hint, hint) that led to the equity dilution? Third, the author is looking at fundamentals for the longer term and not making a buy now technical call. Check out Merian article: http://bit.ly/1K0tcOL
    Jun 18, 2015. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Market Too Weak For A Rate Hike [View article]
    Today's application data confirms thesis.
    Jun 3, 2015. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peter Schiff Quiets Critics As Weak Data Holds Rate Hikes [View article]
    Your comment above makes me think you and Schiff may have more common ground than I initially expected. Lower, longer - no substantial hikes - no substantial reduction in balance sheet.
    May 19, 2015. 08:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Gold Trade: Why Gold Hates Inflation [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments. I think there is a lot we agree on actually. I don't like to get into semantics arguments or take ideas to illogical extremes.
    Jan 14, 2015. 06:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Understanding The Gold Trade: Why Gold Hates Inflation [View article]
    The real rate matters to the Chinese, and others, who have too make a decision between gold or U.S. debt.
    Jan 14, 2015. 02:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Anyone Buying Long-Term Treasuries? [View article]
    Thank you for the article. Only disagreement is I believe the Euro bonds' or Japanese bonds' bubble will burst before the Treasury bubble (and not simultaneous) and we will see those funds flow into the US treasuries driving prices higher and yeilds lower.
    Jan 12, 2015. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Breaks Ground At $1 Billion Merian Mine In Suriname [View article]
    See comment below.
    Jan 6, 2015. 08:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Breaks Ground At $1 Billion Merian Mine In Suriname [View article]
    Check out this about gold supply:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Greenspan Is Long Gold And Dissing Fiat Currencies [View article]
    Not sure if you read the debate from the link I provided at the beginning of the article? Or if you have read his recent book. The following is from the debate:

    "But do you think that gold is currently a good investment given what you're saying about the potential for turmoil?"

    "Yes"

    I spent a lot more energy trying to get the macro economic argument at the beginning right from his view than worrying about the integrity of this title. In any case, before you pass final ethical judgement upon me, please consider: I provided the links to source material for any quotes, the volume/proportion of direct quotes is very high, and if the spirit of his words were captured.
    Jan 3, 2015. 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Greenspan Is Long Gold And Dissing Fiat Currencies [View article]
    The strongest correlation for gold prices since the crisis is US gov. bond prices, ie inverse to their yield. This is logical because subdued real rates of interest are positive for gold. In other words, physical assets perform well in a zero rate environ. coupled with modest inflation.
    Jan 2, 2015. 11:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Gold Discoveries Plunge, Peak Gold In 2015 Predicted [View article]
    Merian is great add for Newmont. Only draw backs are the 4 million resources was estimated using $1300 gold price and higher political risks than average of the portfolio. Been working on a piece about Merian this week.
    Dec 26, 2014. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Gold Discoveries Plunge, Peak Gold In 2015 Predicted [View article]
    When you have any trouble getting back year gold Eagles and Maples near spot please let me know.
    Dec 26, 2014. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Gold Discoveries Plunge, Peak Gold In 2015 Predicted [View article]
    Thanks for the post and the heads-up on grades.
    Dec 25, 2014. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
82 Comments
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