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John Miller

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  • Lessons From Apple's Fiscal Q3 Instructive For Current Quarter Predictions [View article]
    Travis,

    Main point of the article is that Fanalysts don't listen to what the company is saying.
    The Apple press release about the 5 million is included exactly because of what it indicates will be reported. Take a look at what Tim said, four words pop out at me: "majority" "sold out" and "October". Say "majority" means 80%, then that is 4 million. Yes you will add channel, but both the initial carriers "sold out" and the secondary release countries report limited supply. Rumor is "Hon Hai" may see availability in "October".
    I actually hope the Fanalysts have the better of it - long $AAPL.
    Oct 3 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From Apple's Fiscal Q3 Instructive For Current Quarter Predictions [View article]
    Agree with you on a few points actually (see my "point 1" above).

    But I think you exactly miss the main point of the piece, which is that the expectations don't match what Apple is saying. Just as last quarter most did not heed the warning, again I think some are ignoring Apple's warning about the supply constraints and delivery times this week.
    
    5 million sold could be a stunning accomplishment spoiled by irrational expectations. Out of curiosit - honestly what was your prediction for sold units last quarter? In any case, I think we will be closer to 5 million than 10 million.
    Sep 29 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The World's Most Lucrative Video Game Maker Is Not Undervalued [View article]
    When you were talking about Skylanders and said, "so far done extremely well, as it is the game series that has been the largest contributor to revenue in the second half of 2012." Did you mean first half? If this is what you meant, did you look at the financial break out of Blizzard versus Activision for the first half?
    Aug 14 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • World Of Warcraft Numbers To Decline Rapidly Again [View instapost]
    Big miss on our part and I like your logic as partial explanation. But still find the 10.2 number hard to swallow. Especially since they are putting out that the number as MAU and not subs.

    Do you think those who are going to lapse have lapsed? We thought there would be a large lapse following the devouring of the final Cataclysm content. Especially in the East.

    For the last two quarters I have made my call public on the number. Out of personal pride interest what were you thinking before the conference call?
    May 9 09:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triple Crown Winners And The Markets [View instapost]
    Nice hit on the exacta . Are you moving to Bode for the Preakness?
    May 7 08:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triple Crown Winners And The Markets [View instapost]
    I like I'll Have Another in the exotics but am primarily backing Alpha. http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 5 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 5 Stocks For Strategic Growth Still Growing [View article]
    Welcome back. Drop EA for ATVI or NTES. Got to wonder about the new EA debt issue and if they can profit from social gaming. Other side of coin, SWTOR is a beast. $EA $ATVI $NTES
    Feb 15 10:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Points To Strong Zynga EPS [View article]
    I feel like Zynga is going to step into a big pile with the release tonight. Hype these past two weeks is the worst it has been. They could come in light on revenue, say south of $300m and not turn a dime in profit because of development costs. The wisper is now $320. Could be some tears Friday when all the calls expire. $ZNGA
    Feb 14 01:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MW3, World Of Warcraft, Diablo III Key To Activision's Earnings And Outlook [View article]
    Honestly, sorry I said you were selective; let us just stick to the facts.

    1. I place importance on making a profit.
    2. The very last quarter was the most profitable ever. (Hard to believe it beat last year with Black Ops and Cataclysm, but it did.)
    3. I have trust in those who produced that significant beat.
    4. The sky is not falling (do you believe it is?)
    Feb 10 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MW3, World Of Warcraft, Diablo III Key To Activision's Earnings And Outlook [View article]
    You can be selective in your stats if you like. But let us face it. Black Ops was/is the greatest thing since sliced bread on a sales and profit front. MW3 is sliced bread. Take a look at these stats from the call.

    Credit Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.co...

    In 2011, Modern Warfare 3 was the best-selling game in the U.S. and Europe. Black Ops was the #5 best-selling game, and Modern Warfare 2 and World at War still continued to sell in the millions. And by any measure, Call of Duty engagement has never been stronger. In 2011, the franchise is estimated to have had over 40 million monthly active users across 5 Call of Duty titles. In terms of MAUs in December alone, Modern Warfare 3 exceeded 20 million; Black Ops exceeded 10 million; Modern Warfare 2 exceeded 5 million; and World at War and Modern Warfare, which launched 3 and 4 years ago, respectively, had more than 2.5 million monthly active users combined.

    Also, during 2011, Modern Warfare 3 was the most played game on Xbox LIVE, and the year-old Black Ops was the second most played game on Xbox LIVE. And the 2-year old Modern Warfare 2 was the third most played game on Xbox LIVE. And in 2011, sales of downloadable content for the franchise set new industry records, with growth exceeding the estimated growth rates of the social and mobile segments combined. On a cumulative basis, 2011 sales of DLC for Black Ops, Modern Warfare 2 and World at War were equivalent to a top 5 console title.
    Feb 10 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MW3, World Of Warcraft, Diablo III Key To Activision's Earnings And Outlook [View article]
    Gaucho,

    Last year they sold Cataclysm, an expansion for WoW, during the holiday quarter.

    I disagree that CoD is at its high point. Both the current title and past titles will have continued strong sales and the best additional content (DLC) sales in history. We also have CoD China eventually. The install base of the Xbox and PS3 continues to grow and the next-gen Xbox is underdevelopment. I would also be careful betting this year's installment is the top; those who made that bet the past two years were proved very wrong.

    WoW numbers will decline until the release of the next expansion (MoP) which has a small chance to make this coming holiday season. In any case Blizzard side will show growth because they had no front-line releases in 2011 but will have Diablo III and Starcraft II (HoS) this year.

    Skylanders will help also.

    There is a safety net under the stock because of the dividend and cash.

    Thanks for your comments,

    John
    Feb 10 08:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MW3, World Of Warcraft, Diablo III Key To Activision's Earnings And Outlook [View article]
    We did hear the same argument last year.

    I'll be back with an apology if I am way off base tomorrow night.
    Feb 8 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • MW3, World Of Warcraft, Diablo III Key To Activision's Earnings And Outlook [View article]
    Hard to go into all aspects in depth. But did you catch: "new monetization plans of the title seem strong."?
    Feb 8 07:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Beat From EA On Battlefield 3 Sales [View article]
    Good early call out of Origin. I'll see if I can work you/it in an article.
    Feb 2 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Beat From EA On Battlefield 3 Sales [View article]
    Will read the new article. Liked your NPD article. Check this out when you have a moment - would love a comment. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 1 08:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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