Smallfish

Long only, special situations, growth at reasonable price, momentum
Smallfish
Long only, special situations, growth at reasonable price, momentum
Contributor since: 2012
GMO shareholders ok the deal with AMER.
It is a real beginning.
However, the price of moly is really low in recent days.
It is scary.
If the price came out from bottom (no miner can make money at this price),
if AMER get the loan soon, if the materials sector recovers a little bit, if the
economic of the world won't go worse,
any of this If can give GMO a big pump.
So many share holders suffered so many years.
The market should give a fair payment back.
Anyway, GMO will not go bankruptcy in recent 3 years,
not like MCP. This is for sure.
Without the chinese partner AMER, we, GMO share holders,
could be dead very soon.
The moly price fell to 5$ range, slightly below 6$, record low.
LME MOLY price trades at 13250$/ton (6.00 $/lb), at 06282015
This is really scary.
The annual meeting of GMO will be held on June 30, 2015, 2 days later.
If No big news comes out, GMO will have really hard time.
If GMO can't sign the aggreement with AMER, it may go bankruptcy very soon.
The price of moly fell to reccord low. It is scary.
If AMER won't support the financial support,
GMO could go bankruptcy.
The basic materials sector is really bad. So sad!
15/1 reverse split is not that good.
They may have to do it to comply the
requirement of NYSE (the risk of delist).
The liquidation is the key. Otherwise, GMO goes bankruptcy, and
we, share holders, will get wiped out completely.
Basic materials have really bad time in recent years also. For moly,
from any point of view, the price can't not drop anymore.
Sep 26, 2013, GMO is closing with a price of 1.75$/share.
Is this price good ?
How are you guys who bough at 4$ doing today?
Is that good ?
GMO's previous investor Mr. Liu Han was in prison now.
However, china local government are resuming the moly
project operated by Hongda Mining Ltd. This big factory need
moly resource. My guess is GMO.
I wrote about this at the beginning of my article.
There are some rumors about the resuming on the market.
If the resuming is confirmed, and if GMO get contract with
that company, it will be a good news to share holders.
四川什邡酝酿重启钼铜项目 每年可带来40亿利税
http://bit.ly/1baW04P
The arrest of the CEO of Hanlong Group, Mr. Liu Han General
Moly's Chinese
partner, caused severe problem.
General Moly is running out of money.
The Commissioner of Eureka county keep suing general moly
for money, and deferring the permit of GMO.
Now ? Go bankruptcy!
Is that funny?
The arrest of the CEO of Hanlong Group, Mr. Liu Han General Moly's Chinese
partner, caused severe problem.
General Moly is running out of money.
The Commissioner of Eureka county keep suing general moly
for money, and deferring the permit of GMO.
Then in March 2013, Mr. Liu was arrested by china police.
The 700 M$ loan was cancelled.
Without the stupid interruption from the Eureka commissioners,
the 700 M$ should be obtained 2 years ago.
Now ? Go bankruptcy!
Is that funny?
I updated my analysis on General Moly, (GMO),
check the following address:
http://bit.ly/11CTJ0r
I updated my analysis on General Moly, (GMO),
check the following address
http://bit.ly/11CTJ0r

I updated my analysis on General Moly, (GMO),
check the following address
http://bit.ly/11CTJ0r
The Company is as good as before.
However, the material sector, especially mining is very bad
recently. Silver, Iron, Gold, Copper, are diving.
The good news for GMO today is the warrant arrangement.
The price is 4.23$/ share, 10M share for Hanlong Company
03/06/2013 GMO Sec Filing
http://bit.ly/XWLZQ6
As reported in a previous amendment to Schedule 13D, on October 26, 2012 Hanlong USA and the Issuer entered into a Subordinated Loan Agreement and an amendment to the Stockholder Agreement. In connection with the execution of these agreements, Hanlong USA was granted a Warrant (the “Warrant”) to acquire up to 10,000,000 shares of the Common Stock of the Issuer at an exercise price of $4.23 per share. The Warrant is exercisable at any time commencing April 26, 2013 and ending April 26, 2015. This amendment is being filed to reflect that the Warrant is exercisable within 60 days and consequently Hanlong USA is deemed to be the beneficial owner of the shares subject to the Warrant.
Wall Street Journal published an article today.
In Nevada, a Chinese King of the Hill
http://on.wsj.com/UrJzKk
Though that article has more information, it is a little late.
My article has been published for 3 weeks already.
at this moment MCP is @ 11.33$.
5$ is coming.
You are right.
And I made some mistakes during submitting procedure.
I do have positions in GMO, and I don't have plan to exit in
short term.
Please do whatever you want, I just share what I thinking.
Thank you, and good luck!
Sorry, there is a typo.
Commercial production will start in the Fall of 2014.

Long term investors are rewarded with lower tax rate.
For you, matty0454, your reward should come very soon.
Good luck!
More than 4 years ago, I got into this stock by chance,
and was trapped there ( my cost is 6$/share).
At that moment, I was green hand.
Fortunately, I only bought not big amount.
These years, I read all the files and news related to
GMO.
4 years later, when I saw the true opportunity, I added
a little more this fall, 2.8$/share.
At that moment, I wrote an article here which was rejected
by the editor with poor English writing skill.
check here:
http://bit.ly/WWh6dE
However, this is not big deal, comparing to my CRBC.
After my CRBC analysis article was rejected, the price
of CRBC almost has been tripled.
I argued with that editor, and told him/her," I am a thinker
and analyzer, not a skilled writer. I have followed these stocks
for years, and my thinking could benefit your readers. Not like some other skilled writers, they could write a bunch of analysis without following. They have never spent years of times to follow what they wrote. You need think for your readers. If you can help them make money, they will not leave."
In the end, I failed.
This time, when I tried with this article, the editor accepted instantly. This editor must be a new one.
Honestly, I didn't follow too many stocks, GMO, CRBC, BAC, AIG,
Sina, BP,SHLD.
AIG is a really good one. Once my GMO reach 5$, I may consider
to replace it with AIG, which I can hold for life time.
I am a small fish in this market. My biggest advantage is the low
costing of money. I can bear 80% off dropping, but those big guys
can't afford. I can wait for 3-4 years, and they can't.
If you keep changing hands and tried to play trick with those big guys, you will lose for sure.
If you are small fish too, just try your best to find good stocks,
and bite as tightly as possible, then wait for the victories.
Sooner or later, all the value will be realized in the market.
The construction has been initiated. GMO's estimation is 20 -24
month. Commercial production will start in the Fall of 2015.
The volume is 40M Lb annually for the first 5 years. Then the life
time of Mt Hope is about 40 years. Their cost is ~ 6$/lb.
You were trapped by USEG.
That's the only explanation, why you keep pumping
USEG.
Even in article about GMO, you do the same thing.
Title: General Moly Announces That the Notice of Availability for the Mt. Hope Final Environmental Impact Statement Has Been Processed and is Scheduled for Publication in the Federal Register October 12, 2012
check here
http://bit.ly/Oj3sSE;highlight=
China is slowing down. All their steel makers are suffering and struggling. If Han long Group has survival problem, then GMO
may have big trouble.
Anyway, let's see what will happen.
I am still long on GMO in short term. In long term, only god know what will happen.
moly price keep dropping, from 14 $/ lb to 11$/ lb,
20% already gone.
Maybe this time, my thinking is wrong.
Anybody watching, please be careful.
HBAN has a equity of 6 billion. CRBC has 1.3 billion.
I don't think HBAN is big enough.
Anyway, let's see what will happen.
Please check how big is HBAN first.
It is impossible for HBAN to acquire CRBC.
As CRBC and HBAN have some overlap in some area,
CRBC may sell some branchs to HBAN for money.
Or there is another bigger private investor to take the whole
CRBC.
GMO was downgraded by BAC recently.
Anybody has read their report?
Bank of America took a generally pessimistic view of General Moly (NYS: GMO) , downgrading to "underperform" and tacitly acknowledging molybdenum's role in the manufacture of some forms of hardened steel.
Check my prediction.
Citizens Republic Bancorp Announces Second Quarter Conference Call
http://on.mktw.net/Nox62A
If you are unable to participate during the live web cast, a recording of the call will be archived for 90 days on the Company's Investor Relations web page at http://bit.ly/N42dnH . The recording will be available approximately two hours after the completion of the conference call.
Corporate ProfileCitizens Republic Bancorp is a diversified financial services company providing a wide range of commercial, consumer, mortgage banking, trust and financial planning services to a broad client base. Citizens serves communities in Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin with 219 offices and 248 ATMs. Citizens Republic Bancorp is the largest bank holding company headquartered in Michigan with roots dating back to 1871 and is the 58th largest bank holding company headquartered in the United States. More information about Citizens Republic Bancorp is available at http://bit.ly/N42dnH .
Homelandny,
You mean Fiorenzi Leonard?
I also checked Eureka county primary election result before.
Fiorenzi Leonard, 37%
Goicoechea, 46%
Fiorenzi also said that he was not intentioned to reject
the Mt. Hope project.
Anyway, check my blog., which is rejected by the seekingalpha.com
I want to publish it as an article, and editors don't like.
http://seekingalpha.co...
Maybe you are right. you bet on short, i bet on long.
in my point of view, in short term,
the stock could go to 5-6$, when permit in hand.
i never bet on 15$.
One thing I want to empathize again is that General Moly does not has any problem in capital raising. The author of this article didn't read carefully about the term of the loan from Chinese Company Hanlong mining company.
They have plenty of money to invest and need moly. Mt. Hope is the ideal project. But they are like hunters, they need some solid proof before before they make big bet, 700 million $ bet.
The key of their term is the ROD, actually the permit.
Large amount money is on the way, and the ticket is the
publishing of ROD.
I spent time to study this company and share information with you,
if you think what I wrote is useful, please make a comment in my blog. Thanks!
My writing skill is not good, and my article about the analysis of
GMO was rejected by seekingalpha.com editors.
Then I put part of my article here.
If you are interested, just click the link following.
GMO, A Good Stock To Invest At This Moment, Jun 26, 2012
http://seekingalpha.co...
2. Permit Application Progress
As Bruce D. Hansen (CEO) mentioned, it was moving forward in 2011. All permits applications are in good direction.
Since 2006, they have put large amount efforts into the preparing of materials and doing research for Mt. Hope project. It is a time-consuming, costing and difficult job, especially in a turbulent economic environment.
6 years later, five major permits, Air Quality Permit and water right permit are in hand. Mt. Hope Project's Water Pollution Control Permit and Reclamation Permit are on the way, which will be obtained before the end of this year.
The last and most important major permit, Record of Decision (ROD) from Bureau of Land Management (BLM), is the major uncertainty and concern now. The Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) has been published in Dec, 2011. The BLM will publish a final version of Environmental Impact Statement recently. GMO management group expected that it could be done in 6-9 months since the publishing of DEIS. Once the final EIS is published, the Record of Decision is expected to be published in one month.
This time, they have a large chance to get it in the following 6 months. When I studied GMO' s 2012 annual shares holder meeting report, I found that their amendment of some loan contract with Hanlong Company implied a quite narrow time scale for the ROD. The ROD will high likely be obtained between Sep 2, 2012 and Dec 2, 2012.
3. True Value of GMO Stock
In GMO Company's presentation, the estimation is around 15$/ share, when Moly price at 15$/lb. Now, the moly price is 13.6$/lb. However, if the permit can't be obtained, this calculation means nothing.
Investors are waiting for their permits, and every success of permit application will add more value of the stock. The Nevada State District Court rules about water right triggered a 20% increase of GMO stock.
The Record of Decision(ROD) from Bureau of Land Management's ("BLM") is the most important permit to GMO. Once the Record of Decision is obtained, the share may soar anther 20% or more, because this will be a milestone for the company, from application to construction, from burning money to making money.
Now, GMO is on the critical edge, at the eve of a tremendous victory. That is the reason why I choose this title.
AIG sell off no core business to get off debt.
The ability to earn money also will become
weaker. That's not the big problem.
The main issue is that if you buy at 33$/share.
The treasure sell at 29$, you lose 4$ in near term
first. That's why people are waiting.
The treasure is dumping large a amount of AIG share.
over 1.4 billion share will be cleaned as soon as possible.
Everytime, AIG's price over the break even line, 29$,
one dump would come. Then AIG go back to bellow 29$
again.
This may takes over years.