Joe Springer's  Instablog

I wanted to give an update on Tonix, I'm still writing - sorry I am slow, my goal is to be done next week.

Jason Napodano has an excellent piece out on Tonix, coming up with $10 per share based on a conservatively calculated and "aggressively" discounted cash flow model of fibromyalgia sales.

I also wanted to point out that his model is fair but very conservative - $250 million peak sales is very conservative in my opinion as the 3 approved drugs combine for over $1 billion in US sales now and none are a bedtime treatment.

My Hooked On Tonix post describes sleep being the biggest problem of FM, and TNX-102 should be the only approved bedtime medicine, and covered by insurance.

So I think that most FM patients will seek treatment and accept the only approved/covered bedtime aid. In my opinion $250 million peak sales will be low and I think it will be more like $1 billion.

Also, from the 10-Q released last night:

"Management believes that the Company has sufficient funds to meet its research and development and other funding requirements through at least September 30, 2014."

That's excellent that they put that in the filing, that means everything is going according to plan, they are funded through the end of the current trial and their preference is to then partner for the last one. If that happens there should be no more dilution, and if they get a deal like MAPP they would be worth $500 million at that time, or about $50 per share.

Other good news: not only are they beginning a PTSD study in the first half of 2014 but it is directly in military-related PTSD, they want to have a "shovel ready" project for the military.

"We expect to begin a Phase 2 trial of TNX-102 SL in subjects with military-related PTSD Q2 of 2014"

That's all for now, read Jason's excellent article, I hope to be done my article next week.

Disclosure: I am long TNXP.