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Joe Springer
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It is very hard or impossible to time the broad market consistently — there are no famous investors that got rich by consistently knowing what the broad market would do next. This only makes sense, as there are just too many variables in the broad market. But there are many famous investors who... More
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  • Gin And Tonix 5 comments
    Nov 14, 2013 1:29 PM | about stocks: TNXP

    I wanted to give an update on Tonix, I'm still writing - sorry I am slow, my goal is to be done next week.

    Jason Napodano has an excellent piece out on Tonix, coming up with $10 per share based on a conservatively calculated and "aggressively" discounted cash flow model of fibromyalgia sales.

    I also wanted to point out that his model is fair but very conservative - $250 million peak sales is very conservative in my opinion as the 3 approved drugs combine for over $1 billion in US sales now and none are a bedtime treatment.

    My Hooked On Tonix post describes sleep being the biggest problem of FM, and TNX-102 should be the only approved bedtime medicine, and covered by insurance.

    So I think that most FM patients will seek treatment and accept the only approved/covered bedtime aid. In my opinion $250 million peak sales will be low and I think it will be more like $1 billion.

    Also, from the 10-Q released last night:

    "Management believes that the Company has sufficient funds to meet its research and development and other funding requirements through at least September 30, 2014."

    That's excellent that they put that in the filing, that means everything is going according to plan, they are funded through the end of the current trial and their preference is to then partner for the last one. If that happens there should be no more dilution, and if they get a deal like MAPP they would be worth $500 million at that time, or about $50 per share.

    Other good news: not only are they beginning a PTSD study in the first half of 2014 but it is directly in military-related PTSD, they want to have a "shovel ready" project for the military.

    "We expect to begin a Phase 2 trial of TNX-102 SL in subjects with military-related PTSD Q2 of 2014"

    That's all for now, read Jason's excellent article, I hope to be done my article next week.

    Disclosure: I am long TNXP.

    Stocks: TNXP
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  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » This was also new in the 10-Q, they had mentioned before but not the specifics:


    "We also have a pipeline of other product candidates, including TNX-201 and TNX-301. TNX-201 is based on isometheptene mucate (IMH) and is under development as a treatment for certain types of headaches. IMH is an active ingredient that has been reviewed by the FDA under the Drug Efficacy Study Implementation program for safety and efficacy. IMH has been marketed only as a mixture of two mirror-image forms. TNX-201 contains only one of these forms, which we believe may confer an improved clinical profile as compared to the mixture. IMH has been commercialized as a single agent (for example, Octin®) as well as a component in combination products (examples include Midrin® and MigraTen®). We intend to develop TNX-201 under the 505(b)(2) provision and we are scheduled to meet with the FDA in the first quarter of 2014 to discuss our development plans related to TNX-201. TNX-301 is a fixed dose combination of two FDA-approved drugs, disulfiram and selegiline. Although we intend to develop TNX-301 under the 505(b)(2) provision as a treatment for alcohol abuse and dependence, we currently have no plans for further development of TNX-301 at this time."
    14 Nov 2013, 02:17 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (449) | Send Message
    Thanks again Joe... bought 50% more than I had after reading Jason's article and knowing yours is coming. Seems a compelling story worth a good toss of the investment dice.
    14 Nov 2013, 02:43 PM Reply Like
  • Joe Springer
    , contributor
    Comments (2650) | Send Message
    Author’s reply » Check out the new presentation:

    14 Nov 2013, 05:23 PM Reply Like
  • Dennis R. Mahon
    , contributor
    Comments (449) | Send Message
    Very cool presentation!
    14 Nov 2013, 06:30 PM Reply Like
  • sheldond
    , contributor
    Comments (1454) | Send Message
    I like how Jason's analysis gave the low end of the range at 10$. My approximate value was closer to $15 with a chance of $20 with perfect execution and alignment it could go much higher but that is a much longer time table.


    Of course this does not include some of the risks...but it is biotech so that should be known. Risk from now till October 2014 is going to be pretty limited.


    Given its current price, I believe worth a shot.


    I own an outsized position in TNXP.....and hope to grow my position by trading 3/4 of it at appropriate times.
    15 Nov 2013, 10:09 AM Reply Like
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