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  • c'est moi?
    20 Feb 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • !!
    20 Feb 2013, 10:55 AM Reply Like
  • Milhouse: Things are so slow that your win may need an asterisk ;)
    20 Feb 2013, 11:15 AM Reply Like
  • Congeniality again.
    20 Feb 2013, 11:30 AM Reply Like
  • I found the answer to my question about what happened to the truck APU business lead? A search of past comments gave me the answer to the truck APU lead. In the last SEC quarterly it stated, "Also in August, relying further on Vani Dantam’s trucking experience and reputation, we began exploratory talks with an OEM leader in the heavy duty trucking industry. We resurrected an initiative aimed at providing a product that would be a well - suited solution to the issues that arose in the trucking industry because of “anti-idling” legislation."


    Speculation then followed that the potential client was Freightliner from a chart in Ender Dickerson's SAE presentation utilizing the Freightliner "Parksmart" system as an example of the market.


    I think that during the conference call TG may have said he expected testing to begin of an APU truck system in 2013 but I can't quickly find a reference to confirm that for me.


    There has been no further information released by Axion following this information and speculation. Asking about progress in this area and target market would be a good question for the next conference call.
    20 Feb 2013, 12:21 PM Reply Like
  • I expect Tom to update the APU initiative in the conference call, but if our speculation about Freightliner is correct, it's highly unlikely that Tom will identify the potential customer by name.


    One of the intriguing things about the APU market is a very short (2 year) replacement cycle on APU batteries. Proving that the PbC will provide more reliable service in a short life-cycle application is easier than proving service reliability in a long life-cycle.
    20 Feb 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • As I remember the cc, TG said delivery of an APU system was expected before first of the year.
    20 Feb 2013, 02:20 PM Reply Like
  • JP> How long do you estimate to prove PbC cycle life to whomever the potential customer might be? 2 years?
    20 Feb 2013, 03:37 PM Reply Like
  • BW, seems to me the cycle life question might be partly dependent on whether the PbC has a wider temperature operating range than AGMs.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:42 PM Reply Like
  • I suppose I am wondering if prospects have to test the PbC's to failure or just long enough beyond the AGM life to satisfy them that it is a good switch? Could some other measure work? Lab results?
    20 Feb 2013, 03:45 PM Reply Like
  • BW: I would think the BMW-related test results that showed a very extended life cycle under duress would suffice.


    But, I'm outside those industries so it''s just a WAG.


    20 Feb 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • Maybe Indelco can give us his view from an OEM standpoint.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • Every OEM testing program builds on data collected in earlier testing programs with comparable load profiles. While it's not likely that BMW did much in the way of deep cycle testing because their primary interest was rapid shallow cycling, it's a pretty fair bet that NS tested the PbC to a much deeper DoD with much larger regenerative braking loads.


    If you think back to the August CC, Tom said the Asian OEM reviewed three years of BMW data and developed a six month testing program that would fill in the perceived gaps in the BMW data.


    Nobody wants to do any more testing than they have to because it's damned expensive to assign a team of engineers to a project like that. I can't begin to guess how much time an APU manufacturer might want to take, but I'm not expecting a BMW or NS class ordeal because so much of the groundwork has already been done.
    20 Feb 2013, 03:59 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks. Since end of March is six months from August another area of discussion for the CC would be Asian OEM, but presumably TG will touch upon it during his remarks.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:30 PM Reply Like
  • Bang, Where John is taking this is very applicable.


    What a company might wish to test for in an APU application would depend on the conditions the unit would need to function under for some lifetime. Very similar to a vehicle and a locomotive. Any applicable testing done under controlled conditions by another accredited test facility could most likely be applied in an effort to save time and money. Surely any data that could be gotten free or via some cost sharing with NSC or BMW could be advantageous to both parties. One party would save the cost / time of duplicated efforts and the other might be afforded some financial return or even perhaps goodwill where subsequent test data from the other party is shared. These types of relationships are pretty easy when the parties are not competitors.


    So what does this all mean relative to how long this might take. Well we don't know. What we do know is that the level of testing required is to both gather data to make sure the components/system can meet the needs of some application and also that things like safety, durability and financial risk can be managed. How this would be done would depend on what the parties can agree on for test plans and how these plans could be compressed with any testing that has been done in prior testing by other parties. I'd venture a guess that there is significant opportunity for program compression with the NSC, BMW and PowerCube data that exists.


    Also, someone like a Freightliner might be willing to do a reduced rollout where they are precise in their functional testing and systems integration but take some chances on the durability side with a few hundred salable units in the field with some close clients. They could give them a financial break up front and cover any durability issues, should they arise, in return for some feedback. BTW, This type of smaller fleet roll out is similar to how automotive companies will often launch new technology on high end low volume platforms. Rich people expect cutting edge tech. and the risk is managed because there are less sales due to fewer rich people! This is a good example for managing financial risk but autos still need to go through a longer round of testing because of safety and regulatory needs. Probably not as true with an APU although I'm sure there is still a reduced level of regulatory oversight.
    20 Feb 2013, 06:38 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Inndelco.
    20 Feb 2013, 08:19 PM Reply Like
  • " Surely any data that could be gotten free or via some cost sharing with NSC or BMW could be advantageous to both parties. "


    I wrote on the TSLA post where my post was deleted ?
    There really is alot of super hope here.


    Come on guys, you know this is not true.


    Do you really think Norfolk Southern and BMW will test 2 or 3 years and then give the data away for free ? Proprietary information given to competitors for free ? Or even for nominal pay ? Come on if BMW spent millions and 2 or 3 years testing it, they would probably demand millions more to share it. Why would they let a competitor catch up 2 or 3 years ?


    There is believing and then there is fooling yourself into the unbelievable.


    I will bet you $ 100 that BMW did not share all their research. That would be rediculous to believe. Yes maybe some of the basics, but it is likely BMW and Norfolk didn't even share their data with Axion, why would they.


    Axion may have shared data, but there is absolutely no reason to believe BMW or Norfolk would share data, not with Axion and not with a competitor. Heck these companies don't even want their names shared or released by Axion.


    " Every OEM testing program builds on data collected in earlier testing programs with comparable load profiles. "


    no way. You think Elon Musk is sharing his information with competitors.


    21 Feb 2013, 02:33 AM Reply Like
  • RIF.

    21 Feb 2013, 10:02 AM Reply Like
  • "There is believing and then there is fooling yourself into the unbelievable."


    Yep. And IMO you are pretty well into it yourself.


    As iind suggested, firms that are not in direct competition with BMW and NSC might well be able to purchase some battery test result info. NSC and BMW might well look at any such proposal as a cost recovery opportunity as well as a means of lowering their own future battery purchase costs by accelerating achievement of PbC manufacturing economies.
    21 Feb 2013, 11:24 AM Reply Like
  • :)


    The truth about electric cars by Homo Ludens



    Clicking back a page, John you should include this as a lead in to some of your articles! lol


    "Homo ludens philosophicus


    This modern world is so stupid! So nonsensical, so populated with people who just copy instead of finding their own way, who can't differentiate between truth and opinion, between science and belief, and who often lack even the most basic ability to understand a written text! I won't be able to help these poor people - nobody can do that, I fear. But for those other people, who are willing to read, to understand, to think, to analyze, and to form an own opinion, I added this section to my web site.


    Here I will touch some specific issues that have made me think more than a few times. They can be controversial, and inevitably I will have to mix facts, as I understand them, with my opinion. If you find a fact that is wrong, please tell me, so I can fix it. If you find some of my opinions to be wrong, there is no need to tell me. You are of course entitled to opine the exact opposite!"

    20 Feb 2013, 02:00 PM Reply Like
  • (TSLA): Q4 EPS of -$0.65 misses by $0.13. Revenue of $306.3M beats by $7.4M. Shares -2.8%
    20 Feb 2013, 04:35 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla posts loss, claims profits are in sight



    A little mood musik from Mr. Musk. Tweet tweet.

    20 Feb 2013, 04:53 PM Reply Like
  • I'm going to have a lot of fun parsing Tesla's Q4 results.


    They ended the quarter with $202 million in cash, but did so on the backs of their suppliers as payables rocketed by $180 million.


    While I expected Tesla to finish Q4 with a positive working capital balance in the $3 million range, it looks like they're already into deficit working capital territory to the tune of $16 million.
    20 Feb 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • The big increase in Property and Equipment caught my eye. Went from $292.4 to $552.2mill Q4. Is that all new equipment, or has their real estate changed its role on the balance sheet?
    20 Feb 2013, 05:03 PM Reply Like
  • Long term debt and inventory...
    20 Feb 2013, 05:13 PM Reply Like
  • The did some big PP&E adds during the year. The Q4 increase was only $66 million, which is still a good deal more than expected. JP Morgan, for example, was forecasting a bump from $486 to $516, or about $40 million.
    20 Feb 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Wasn't R&D supposed to decline a lot as Tsla had evolved into production phase?
    And it seems the only positive cash flows are "Cash flows provided by financing activities". I can't imagine those Twitter investors' reaction.
    20 Feb 2013, 08:10 PM Reply Like
  • I bought some TSLA puts today. Here's to hoping the after-hours sell off carries thru to regular trading.
    20 Feb 2013, 08:16 PM Reply Like
  • That may prove to be a very good day trade.


    The thing I didn't hear on the conference call today was "congratulations on a strong quarter." I did, however, hear Elon say we're highly confident that we'll report a Q1 profit unless there's a force majure. Since they can't possibly be profitable on Model S production, that tells me he already has a one-off payment in hand that will paint an otherwise dismal first quarter as profitable before they fall back into the red.


    I have to admit, Elon is a Barnum class showman.
    20 Feb 2013, 08:20 PM Reply Like
  • TG needs to take lessons from Elon.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:52 PM Reply Like
  • TSLA may provide an excellent opportunity to buy long-dated puts, at least from time to time when the valuation gets even more bubbly. Although I haven't followed the stock closely and thus don't understand it in detail, the obvious hype red flag has me intrigued and may well justify more time learning. This leads me to a good question---what other lithium/alt energy hype bubble stocks are left to exploit? Is TSLA the only major one that hasn't crashed yet?
    21 Feb 2013, 01:09 AM Reply Like
  • thats crazy to expect TSLA to go down
    it might, yes


    but did you see what Ferrari reported recently


    Ferrari S.p.A. yesterday released its 2012 financials, the best in the company's 66-year history. All the main economic metrics exceeded the previous records set ...


    high end cars are selling just like high end real estate


    the 1% hit the market huge the last 2 years
    they have money to burn


    too risky to try to short or put TSLA in my opinion


    it the past 6 months despite all the naysayers
    it went 28 to 38


    the naysayers simply do not understand money and cars
    and market


    be cautious with it, sentiment rules no matter how
    crazy you may think people are, these are luxury autos
    and the 1% have the $$$$$
    21 Feb 2013, 02:20 AM Reply Like
  • Mr Investor,


    Lithium bubble stocks was a 2012 vintage. Sorry :(
    21 Feb 2013, 09:02 AM Reply Like
  • One for the HOV lane. And make sure you get your tax credit.


    The Twin-Turbo Hybrid Monster Inside McLaren's 903-hp P1



    PS Red's the same wait time.
    20 Feb 2013, 04:50 PM Reply Like
  • Why do we appear to be fixated with Tesla ?
    At least they have stock promotion,big grants, a product that works to a point (albeit not sustainable) and a CEO who is not invisible.and connects readily with the big institutional investors with a value per share of 130x Axion.


    So with our track record of no news,no promotion,no stockholder value - why do we laugh at Tesla ?
    20 Feb 2013, 05:32 PM Reply Like
  • It takes the conversation off of AXPW no news.
    20 Feb 2013, 06:44 PM Reply Like
  • Really JR,
    If you do not understand that the failure of the EV industry bodes well for the S/S industry, then you have not learned anything on this blog.


    The fantasy of the eventual EV takeover has slowed acceptance of the largest fuel saver ever developed.
    20 Feb 2013, 08:37 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist
    I do understand your comment, and understand that Tesla should probably be valued at $200m and not $4Bn. But am making the point that their following is massive, promoted by highly skilled executives selling a (sexy) blue sky product, and my point is what's wrong with them apples ! Axion has a following of 200 or so on this concentrator and nobody else because it never DOES anything to create buzz, investor confidence, actual product sales, or even pretends that "one day" right around the corner, just you wait" we'll actually do something.
    Of course most of us will be dead and buried by then !
    20 Feb 2013, 09:08 PM Reply Like
  • JR,
    Unfortunately, cars are sexy, batteries aren't.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:11 PM Reply Like
  • JR,


    TG and Elon are light years apart in style. You seem to care about the pps today, where as TG likely is managing the company for a 2015+ position.


    I too wouldn't mind a little promotion, similar to ZBB, but Tesla style fawning will never happen with Axion (or any battery company).
    21 Feb 2013, 01:45 AM Reply Like
  • sorry could not resist to add



    TSLA sales up 500 % year over year.
    TSLA is "flawless"


    pick at all the finances you want it is a fools errand
    sales and sentiment count


    again I have seen dunderheads post negative about TSLA during the past 6 months, no comprehension of the market or the vehicles.


    quick correction stock up 28 to 36 during past 6 months ( was 38 it went down after hours)


    but with sales up 500 % year over year
    it seems only the foolish or naive are saying short it


    with Ferrari with best sales in company history
    with TSLA sales up 500 % year over year


    those who wrote short TSLA have to be very embarrased
    no understanding of the market no understanding of cars
    no understanding of money.


    (as written before, the market has been fantastic for the 1 %
    who do you think is buying these luxury autos ?)
    21 Feb 2013, 01:57 AM Reply Like
  • IMO, if the entire EV mkt has to fail for AXPW to survive, then we all have made a very bad bet. In fact, I think it is just opposite.


    It has been stated many times here that the mkt. is huge and plenty of room for all even AXPW in a niche mkt. of mild hybrids.


    I for one liked this APC and JP's articles when they covered the entire clean energy production & storage space and provided a list of companies that participated in it, rather than talking about Tesla and different types of animal urine.
    21 Feb 2013, 05:22 AM Reply Like
  • LT,
    Your not being yourself with this post. Normally you read carefully and answer on point. No one said "The EV market had to fail for Axion to survive."


    In response to a question as to why the fixation on Tesla, I responded that the " fantasy of the eventual EV takeover has slowed acceptance of the largest fuel saver ever developed."


    In other words the S/S market is slowed up ( not stopped) by the hype. Battery technology is skewed because of the hype. I don't think this is a misconception, but I have been wrong before. When the hype disappears, the world will get back to basics.


    The electric car has been around 100 years. It will be around awhile longer. But for the present Tesla is the EV image to the world. Their financials are terrible. If indeed they have found a niche market for 20,000 cars per quarter, then they can achieve financial success. However, at that rate , their stock price will decline because growth wont meet expectations.
    21 Feb 2013, 07:34 AM Reply Like
  • I don't think EV hype has slowed the implementation of stop-start technology at the automaker level. If anything, the technology is rolling out faster than anybody expected. The problem with the EV hype is that investors are so distracted by the mythology that they're not paying attention to the business opportunity in stop-start.
    21 Feb 2013, 08:11 AM Reply Like
  • " I don't think EV hype has slowed the implementation of stop-start technology ..."


    " If anything, the technology is rolling out faster than anybody expected. "


    really, I actually agree, relevant technology is implemented, irrelevant tech still tests to show relevance.


    Isn't it true technology saw , analyzed, incorporated the Axion PbC
    and walked on by.


    Axion battery for 8 years tested, tested with BmW for 4 - 8 years or more


    and we see no prospect.


    believe it or not TSLA is claimed as flawless


    is there anyone claiming Axion PbC is flawless ?


    many have claimed .14 as new value if any meaningful investment


    I think they are wrong while I hope for .14 .08 would not be a surprise
    22 Feb 2013, 01:21 AM Reply Like
  • Iwinkie: I wanna buy some of your fire crackers.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:54 AM Reply Like
  • you all post TSLA to drop for past 6 months


    it went from 28 to 36


    street now understands



    as I wrote
    Ferrari S.p.A. yesterday released its 2012 financials, the best in the company's 66-year history. All the main economic metrics exceeded the previous records set ...


    you all keep saying axion will have wide adoption


    where is it ?


    it the PbC battery is that great, why didn't the company
    buy 5 BMWs or better yet 5 fords and simply substitute it
    show the company it works, they have had 8 years to do it.


    actually it appears axion tested with military and failed



    entered a world wide agreement with exide and failed



    tested with military and honda civic and failed

    25 Feb 2013, 06:34 AM Reply Like
  • 02/20/2014: EOD stuff partially copied from instablog (up in the A.M.).
    # Trds: 22, MinTrSz: 500, MaxTrSz: 22000, Vol 108250, AvTrSz: 4920
    Min. Pr: 0.2910, Max Pr: 0.3109, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2973
    # Buys, Shares: 5 26000, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.3002
    # Sells, Shares: 17 82250, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2963
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 1:3.16 (24.0% “buys”), DlyShts 16350 (15.10%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 19.88%


    Yesterday and today is more like what I expected Friday, other than hitting lows ~ 1/2 penny lower than I anticipated. But as mentioned yesterday, looking at the the range from the low of $0.2018 11/12/13 to the high of $0.38 1/11/13 would give a reversion to the mean at ~$0.29. I never expected that long a period would be in play for this on our little micro-cap.


    Anyway, good to see that low hold again today – maybe we are bottoming here. There's some indication this might be – volume falling off, RSI oversold at ~29.6, MFI headed there, needing only another 1.15 down to hit the magic 20 from the current 21.15, Williams %R at -100 (the “magic” number if it's going to work its magic), stochastic oversold but crossed above its average.


    ATM I do have a concern that we've not had an “overshoot” of that reversion to the mean price point. Maybe we won't get one. We'll see I guess.


    The “standard” 20-period Bollingers are at $0.3441 and $0.2963 with both upper and lower trending downward, but beginning to converge as the upper has a steeper decline rate ATM. A move to the midpoint would hit $0.3202. Price has “pushing” the lower band four days now. I don't see any relatively consistent pattern of how long this goes – sometimes it's a very short period and sometimes much longer.


    My experimental 13-period Bollinger bands are at $0.343 and $0.2925, yielding a mid-point of $0.318 if a move back to normal midpoint is gong to occur. The range is broadening and normally we have only about one more day of price “pushing” the lower band before a move towards the middle begins. This is not cast in stone – it could start earlier, later or go the other way. Past behavior does suggest movement back towards $0.32 is most likely though.


    I just noticed that what seems to be support ATM, ~$0.29 is the high that originates my ascending trading channel resistance line at $0.29 on 11/15/12. If traditional TA carries any weight, this former resistance should now act as support, which it seems to be doing for two days now. It's also just below the low ($0.296) that ended our prior leg down on 1/25 before we started trading sideways (consolidating or “churning”) and also acted once as support on 7/19/12 that ended a down leg and started an up leg, back in our long slow sideways trend. With volume dropping today this is looking like it might hold. I think it seems possible also because of yesterdays strong action at the $0.30xx, and above, price points. Speaking of which, today:
    - $0.2910-$0.2920, 27000 shares, 24.94% of volume, VWAP $0.2912;
    - $0.2950-$0.2990, 32950 shares, 30.44% of volume, VWAP $0.2971;
    - $0.3000-$0.3109, 48300 shares, 44.62% of volume, VWAP $0.3008.


    Not as strong as yesterday, but I guess on lower volume we shouldn't expect it to be so.


    Based on all the above I wouldn't be surprised to see the rebound begin in the next few days - with the oscillators at their extremes or into oversold and volume suggesting bottoming with a lower-bound price holding so far it seems reasonable. But I'm not betting on it – I expected a rebound after a few days and I may just be experiencing “confirmation bias”.


    On my experimental charts stuff, the average trade size was at the lower end of what I think is retail today, the daily short sales percentage moved down a bit from yesterday along with the volumes, “buys” weakened a bit more, and my experimental inflection points continue to weaken, although it looks like the rate is now starting to slow. There's nothing here indicating an upturn yet.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    20 Feb 2013, 07:03 PM Reply Like
  • Lithium Air Battery Gives IBM Hope of Power Without Fires

    20 Feb 2013, 08:49 PM Reply Like
  • Do they run on hot or cool air?
    20 Feb 2013, 09:16 PM Reply Like
  • John,


    Someone stole your line. From Froggey's link.
    “Moore’s Law doesn’t apply to batteries,” said Gage. It may take another 10 years to 20 years before the industry can produce an electric vehicle with the range and flexibility consumers expect, he said.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:17 PM Reply Like
  • Renzo,
    don't forget humidity, pressure and polution. And on the other side of the battery lies a big piece of pure lithium metal which would catch fire 10 times more readily than a li-ion battery.


    “We picked the path with the biggest risks and the biggest rewards,” Spike Narayan, science and technology director at IBM Research in San Jose, California, said in an interview. “This is a moonshot.”


    I sincerely hope they could make it in a decade or two.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:39 PM Reply Like
  • I hope they work, too. I was really just making a "hot air" joke about the hype of what is essentially still vaporware.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:56 PM Reply Like
  • Not significant but I have a lithium ion air battery in my classic Canon F-1 35mm camera. It stores as long as you want until you remove the seal that exposes it to air,
    21 Feb 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • On The Street they did a live 6:23 the comment was she called Tesla today and was told May delivery.
    Then when she made the reservation they said Aug.
    I assume she hit one of the not deliverable options and the wait is 6 or so months.
    Still half what had been thought.


    A commenter from elsewhere said his delivery date was 2 months. I don't know absolutely he had ordered he could be like this lady and was told May and may get Aug but from the comment I think he had a delivery date confirmed.


    There is a possibility is that Tesla is lying about available in a month, to get people in the door, then saying Gotcha!
    But I doubt it.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:29 PM Reply Like
  • Funny, Froggey, check my time stamp for the comment that Elon said in the minutes today the wait is about five months.


    I beatcha' by a mere minute. But then, your comment is in the newest APC.


    I'll call it a tie!
    20 Feb 2013, 09:37 PM Reply Like
  • Aw Man! Shoot.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:41 PM Reply Like
  • Ties among friends are good things.
    20 Feb 2013, 09:53 PM Reply Like
  • Tesla Transcript up on SA



    Tesla Motor Club seems to think the report was OK and the call was good.
    They did point out this is the first call in memory Gen III was not mentioned.


    The car that is supposed to be affordable.
    20 Feb 2013, 11:52 PM Reply Like
  • Having read through the transcript there are a number of errors.
    In the comments stainlesssteel has detailed some of them.
    21 Feb 2013, 09:09 AM Reply Like
  • Maya: Got to thinking about the "reversion to mean" of the long grind up. It occurred to me this is the EWT "A" wave"? Next is "B" and "C"? I know you haven't studied it for a while, but does the pattern seem right?


    If so, "B" goes about 1/2 way back up and then "C" half of that back down? 'Course I guess it could go one of the other Fibonacci points?


    Thanks for any thoughts,
    P.S. Just to stay on topic, "Tesla".
    21 Feb 2013, 05:21 AM Reply Like
  • Sorry I didn't get back sooner, HTL.


    First of all, today's volume is spectacularly low; 8700 shares at 3:15 PM. As you know, usually when a stock is bottoming, volume is bottoming, too.


    But I don't think that's the case here. Perhaps more likely is that all the retail traders who wanted to bail before the cap raise to again buy in cheaper at a lower price have already done so.


    Further, as I previously wrote, I'm not so sure we can use Elliott Wave Theory right now with Axion because of extenuating factors a) the coming cap raise b) I'm not sure there's any stock out there like Axion where an investing "group" owns such a dramatic percentage of the shares outstanding.


    However, and again, last November bottom was a classic EWT 5 wave bottoming pattern achieved.


    We are still in the third wave up. Regarding EWT Fibonacci points, for the EWT third wave up to break down would require us get beneath 28 cents. So we're still good to go.


    Waves within waves: Since the Jan 14, 38 cent high, we've seen a drop to ~ 31.6 cents on Jan 25; the completion of the first wave down. Then we rose to back up to 33 cents (with an intraday high of 34 cents) on Feb. 11 and then dropped to 30 cents on Feb. 14, the completion of the second wave down. Right now were are on the third wave down (within a wave) since the 14th. Depending on today's close, we may have completed this third wave down, with two smaller, tighter, and lower volume drops than the norm more to go.


    IIRC, typically, waves within waves occur or compress more rapidly as we get to the fourth and fifth wave down, while also lower and lower daily volumes also occur.


    So if you're sniffing around for some data points, you may be on to something. From the 20 cents low, to the 38 cents high is a difference of 18 cents. The 38 cent high to the ~31.6 cent low (on the first wave down) represents something pretty close to a 31.8% retracement, or about six cents, which is ~ 1/3 of 18 cents -- a tiny over shoot from 31.8%. Then, in the second wave down, we went back up to an intraday high of 34 cents, and then dropped to 30 cents close, a drop of four cents, or about one-third less a drop than before (again, pretty close to a 31.8% drop of a wave within a wave).


    Right now were are in the third down wave (within the third wave up). AFAICT, this mini wave has yet to be completed. But using this model the third wave down should be two-thirds of four cents, or about 2.67 cents.


    As we can see, implementing, or better, forecasting Fibonacci points of reference seems to me a difficult task for the above mentioned reasons, because if this model of mini-wave retracements within the third wave up, the next 2.67 cents down will take us beneath 28 cents...and if 28 cents is breached on the downside, then we are done with the five EWT waves upward.


    Again, it's been at least two years since I studied up on EWT, so my thoughts are akin to me memorizing and being able to say to Cub Scouts the 18 day-names of the Mayan Haab calendar and their meanings, which that memory, that ability, has drifted off back into some dark, cobwebbed recess of my noodle.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:30 PM Reply Like
  • Maya: "Perhaps more likely is that all the retail traders who wanted to bail before the cap raise to again buy in cheaper at a lower price have already done so".


    Matches my thoughts. I think I mentioned a few days back that we'd traded a high part (~50%) of the big volume seen back in the ... some period I can't recall now. Anyway, was thinking that some of that prior volume put shares into stronger hands and the sellers at this price level might be getting exhausted.


    "I'm not so sure we can use Elliott Wave Theory right now with Axion because of extenuating factors"


    I recalled that. But I'm going he opposite way - don't know if that's valid. Thinking as news comes it can overcome certain aspects of the wve tendencies while exacerbating others. *No_news*, leaves no catalyst other than sentiment effects as time passes and prices change. I'm wondering if this makes it more likely we see little waves. But that's not what my purpose was, really. I was just trying to get into what you drilled into here - waves and sub-waves to see if we were apparently fitting them.


    From what you wrote, which I'll have to study harder later this evening, it sounds like we are roughly fitting some of the stuff.


    I had started my thinking with the trading channel up started in Nov was a wave 1 up. If I ken what you suggest properly, this isn't so. But like I said, got to read more closely tonight.


    I sure do appreciate you taking the time - if you're like me it takes time to compose this stuff.


    Thanks a ton!


    21 Feb 2013, 03:49 PM Reply Like
  • It does take a ton of time. I started answering your query at least two and a half hours earlier than when I hit "publish."


    (Including a 20 minute visit from my neighbors who wanted to see my hardwood floors I had installed last year.)


    I do like your "no catalyst, and therefore EWT may work" idea, but I have never before seen, or even pondered how a group of cyber investors can affect EWT.


    Don't get to bleary-eyed staring at those charts!
    21 Feb 2013, 03:58 PM Reply Like
  • HTL: Correction.


    I wrote this above: As we can see, implementing, or better, forecasting Fibonacci points of reference seems to me a difficult task for the above mentioned reasons, because if this model of mini-wave retracements within the third wave up, the next 2.67 cents down will take us beneath 28 cents...and if 28 cents is breached on the downside, then we are done with the five EWT waves upward.


    Should have written: "...a one-third drop of four cents, or about 1.32 cents, (not two-thirds of 4 cents, or 2.67 cents). In using a 31.8% retracement, it would be a drop of 1.27 cents. So therefore, in using either measure, the 28 cent mark WOULD NOT be breached, if we have another wave within a wave downward.


    Now I'm thinking you're really on to something!
    21 Feb 2013, 04:22 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks for the correction Maya!


    21 Feb 2013, 04:24 PM Reply Like
  • Good Morning.
    Let me share the following article:


    Feb. 21, 2013, 5:32 a.m. EST
    Boeing to present formal plan to fix 787s: WSJ


    ...Those plans will emphasize changes to the guts of the Dreamliner's lithium-ion batteries, and a new protective fireproof container...


    Total: add more costs to the battery.-Carlos
    21 Feb 2013, 07:36 AM Reply Like
  • Atraverda update


    Investors set for hit after Atraverda administration

    21 Feb 2013, 10:49 AM Reply Like
  • iindelco: I hope that someone will pick up the pieces and at least preserve the tech Atraverda has gathered so far.


    The concept of a bipolar LAB should also apply to Axion type high porosity carbon electrodes. Not an immediate product, but a several years out back burner development. Eliminating the heavy lead cell to cell interconnections could have a nice impact on energy/mass ratio and can't help but open up the PbC application window a bit wider.


    I could see a company created specifically to build "high energy density" bipolar versions of the PbC, for applications like 2 wheel transportation and mild hybrid 4-wheel use.
    21 Feb 2013, 01:20 PM Reply Like
  • SiHB, Agreed.


    Tons of opportunity in the E2W and E4W off road market as examples if you can get the energy density and durability right. Mass is important but as we can see in markets like China price rules for the broader market.


    But alas that's "For the future". Let's hope we're at the table for the celebration. I've got a ticket but I'm not sure if it's for dinner or a station at the dish washer. 8-P
    21 Feb 2013, 02:33 PM Reply Like
  • A ticket at the celebration table for grandkids at their age of majority?
    21 Feb 2013, 02:54 PM Reply Like
  • D-inv: Be nice, now.


    I won't have a "coffin phone" to hear that CC ;-0
    21 Feb 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Jeez D-inv, I guess I'd prefer to wait a long long time for this thing to take off! I suspect SiHB is thinkin the same.


    "Axion's down today." "YESSssss....."
    21 Feb 2013, 03:26 PM Reply Like
  • If You Really Want To Own An Electric Car, You Should Probably Move To Estonia
    Business InsiderBy Adam Vaughn


    "The network of charging points, which was opened officially on Wednesday but has been running for several months, uses direct current (DC) to charge cars in less than 30 minutes, rather than around eight hours to recharge a car's battery as is the case with most of the more than 3,000 points in the UK.


    There are believed to be around 650 electric cars in Estonia, more than 500 of which were Mitsubishi i-MiEVs given to social workers by the government in 2011. Motorists can get grants of up to€18,000 (£15,700) off electric cars, compared to the £5,000 cap for the UK's electric car grant. The average full price for a new electric car is around £30,000."


    "Whether the push to electric cars will come with environmental benefits, however, remains to be seen: the former Soviet republic gets more than 90% of its electricity from carbon-heavy oil shale."



    Great it won't even save oil.
    21 Feb 2013, 11:03 AM Reply Like
  • About time.


    DJ: China Mandates Environmental Insurance for Heavy Industry

    21 Feb 2013, 11:10 AM Reply Like
  • Headline for foreign consumption, heading off potential problems they see with the WTO and any blackeyes which will be handed around in the future...


    The overwhelming bulk of China's heavy industry is owned and operated by a crony system which includes direct ownership by the government, the Army, various members of the politburo and their large oligarchies, and of course senior members of the Communist Party. I would be shocked to discover that these "insurance politicies" do anything other than shift the liability from the elites to the taxpayers.


    Any resemblance to how we treat the 2Bigs in this country is purely coincidental, of course...
    21 Feb 2013, 12:06 PM Reply Like
  • New UL/ULC Standards Open the Door for Greater Use of Low-Voltage Direct Current Systems



    "Low voltage suspended ceiling power distribution systems, now known as DC FlexZone Systems, were developed by Armstrong Industries in 2008. They send low-voltage (24VDC, which is safe to the touch) power directly through the grid, in lieu of wires. Equipment such as luminaires can simply be placed into the grid, and moved to different locations, without the need for expensive and time consuming rewiring"
    21 Feb 2013, 11:48 AM Reply Like
  • Edison's vision realized?


    He loathed AC, of course.
    21 Feb 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • Long MIT Technology Review piece:


    Ambri’s Better Battery


    A tiny startup called Ambri wants to transform our energy system with massive liquid-metal batteries.



    "it will initially target military bases and other facilities willing to pay for backup power, such as data centers. These applications are not a huge market, but they will help demonstrate and test the battery.




    Even after that prototype is up and running, Giudice says, Ambri still plans to avoid the complex, regulation-heavy world of utilities in favor of independent power producers, companies that develop and own energy projects




    Ambri intends to go after investors from the power industry, hoping that companies such as General Electric, ABB, and Siemens can provide not only money but also credibility and expertise in manufacturing and marketing. But even if Ambri’s engineering is flawless and the company secures all the money it needs, it will face the same obstacle confronting so many other alternative energy companies: cheap natural gas. Since natural gas has become the preferred fuel for power generation in the United States, the price that any grid storage technology must meet to be competitive has fallen much lower."
    21 Feb 2013, 12:03 PM Reply Like
  • WTB, Thanks!


    Here's a video that shows how it works a little better.

    21 Feb 2013, 12:25 PM Reply Like
  • Cool. Turns out that's a Nextek box in the video, as revealed in this 1 minute version:

    21 Feb 2013, 01:03 PM Reply Like
  • Hmmm ...


    "Energy storage and system developer Xtreme Power Inc. raised $5.7 million of a planned $10 million financing."



    Check out the SEC link ... wasn't aware this type of info was available for private companies
    21 Feb 2013, 01:27 PM Reply Like
  • The most interesting part of the Form D filing is in Item 9 which indicates that Xtreme Power is selling debt with options or warrants to acquire another security. That means the most likely format is convertible debt, but there's no way to tell for sure from the filing.
    21 Feb 2013, 01:45 PM Reply Like
  • 8,550 shares traded so far. Where is the volume???
    21 Feb 2013, 01:30 PM Reply Like
  • I see the same thing on Schwab and Yahoo...


    Have they halted trading or something?


    I'm away from the control center right now, I wish someone would buy 1000 shares just to test the market...
    21 Feb 2013, 02:45 PM Reply Like
  • Here's my take: Potential buyers are waiting for news on the capital raise and/or orders. Current shareholders have no intention of bailing at these low prices. -- I think the spread today has been even more interesting than the low volume. Was almost 2 pennies earlier today. I'm no HTL, but that appears to me to be a good sign.
    21 Feb 2013, 02:46 PM Reply Like
  • WIO: Yep. Fits with the bottom of $0.291 holding several days on reducing volume. Often a few days like this finally convinces recalcitrant buyers that downside is minimal.


    And we just traded ~25% of the days volume in a single trade ... 2K! ;-))


    EDIT: Forgot to mention, even the limp-wristed longs at ATDF, TEJS, ... have been holding pretty decent today and after Citadel came in with the $0.30 x 10K bid, an ATDF participant even jumped above it to ... $0.3001! =>8-O
    21 Feb 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • One 9000 share order is almost 1/2 of the days trading by 3:30 PM. Really? No buyers, no sellers.
    I get the feeling that something big this way comes.
    But from which direction?
    21 Feb 2013, 03:53 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist: I think it was really one 10K trade - 1K addtional went 2 seconds before.


    And I discovered two days ago something I had suspected: just as we know they can break orders up, they can combine them. I saw two separate orders at the same price, but different sizes, appear as best bid. Then one trade took both the first order (10K) and 12K of the second, which was 15K. Then the remaining 3K went later.


    That's not really germane to what you saw here, but I wanted to pass it on before I forgot about it.


    This was unusual in that usually I can't tell when multiple orders are involved.


    21 Feb 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • KNDI update


    This is a fine article updating the story on EV manufacturer Kandi, a chineese company that has created a quick exchange battery system. They partnered with State Grid ,a battery manufacturer, and local governments in order to create an orderly EV environment in each city.

    21 Feb 2013, 03:00 PM Reply Like
  • Here's a video of how KNDI's battery loads in the vehicle.



    I'd not want to get near this bad boy.

    21 Feb 2013, 03:15 PM Reply Like
  • The exchange takes about 30 seconds according to reports. I was glad to see the automation of the process in the video. The idea was to change batteries faster than filling a car with gas.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:23 PM Reply Like
  • 240 kg = 529.109 pounds.


    The business-major dufus in the background telling his pal that 240 kg is 88 pounds was worth the price of admission.
    21 Feb 2013, 08:38 PM Reply Like
  • Anybody know roughly how many PbC's would be likely to be used in the truck APU?
    21 Feb 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • Bang I hate to be sarcastic but didn't you invent the Axion search engine :-)


    I do remember someone giving out that info earlier. I'm thinking it was 6 batteries. But that is from memory.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:25 PM Reply Like
  • I seem to recall four as the number of batteries in an APU, but like Futurist I could be wrong. Where's Tim when we need him?
    21 Feb 2013, 03:31 PM Reply Like
  • JP & Bang: I recall four batteries as well. And BTW, Tim was very high about the Axion APU idea, when we talked about it in Copan last year.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:40 PM Reply Like
  • I recall four as well, which actually seemed low to me.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:47 PM Reply Like
  • Zzzz... huh! what? oh...


    The class 8 truck typically comes with 4 grp 31 batteries for starting and the APU adds another 4 grp 31 batteries. But it really depends on the other hotel loads and a 6 battery bank would not be unreasonable (an option I would go for)...


    EDIT: around the 3 min mark you will have a peek at the batteries,,,

    21 Feb 2013, 04:26 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry to have waken you.
    Please continue your self imposed retirement.
    21 Feb 2013, 04:48 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist, no problem was just watching the Axion chart and fell asleep...
    21 Feb 2013, 05:00 PM Reply Like
  • Has anyone done the market size of the APU market? Is it only class 8 trucks or do other trucks need this technology as well?
    21 Feb 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • Axion's presentation to the SAE 2012 Commercial Vehicle Congress had the following bullet point on the "Anti-idling Market Space" slide.


    "Typical idle time is on average 6 hours/day or 1,830 hours per year In 2006, 650,000+ long-haul heavy-duty trucks idle use of 665+ million gallons of diesel fuel."


    So until I hear differently I'll assume that APUs are limited to the OTR segment of the Class 8 market.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:55 PM Reply Like
  • One other market would be the refridgerated market. When I was a kid my Dad drove a truck to Chicago to pick up veggies/meat/fish for a Asian Grocery store. Truck was a short Mitsubishi truck. This was 20 years ago but at the time to keep the refridge working most of these drivers would keep their trucks running to go in and get a pickup. I know this as one day my dads truck was taken by a kid and driven down the street where the kid ran it into a streetlight.


    I'd assume now that there is a way to keep the fridge running via the engine without the keys but a battery to run the fridge (would be like an APU) when the engine isn't.
    21 Feb 2013, 03:56 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks all - 4 to 6 per truck. Appreciated. I'll get you sometime later Futurist! :>D
    21 Feb 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • Are New Energy Storage Solutions Too Much of a Good Thing?

    21 Feb 2013, 04:21 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Axionista Eggwis made the Lake Tahoe news! Well perhaps his Avatar anyway. :))


    At 1:30 in this news cast. Front and center! No Powered by Axion cap though. lol

    21 Feb 2013, 05:14 PM Reply Like
  • Why we need a new model for electricity


    "Renewables are going to permeate the grid, and current technologies used in many natural-gas powered generation facilities are not designed for the start/stop operations needed to firm the amounts of intermittent renewable power envisioned in some energy plans. Therefore, we will need to figure out how to modulate load versus demand with other technologies, including storage and consumption management. Berberich also noted the need for a new grid business model, in which the volumetric billing structure must change."

    21 Feb 2013, 05:43 PM Reply Like
  • "Consumption management".


    Scary phrase.


    Brownouts for all.
    21 Feb 2013, 05:53 PM Reply Like
  • Controlled brownouts - consumstipation?
    21 Feb 2013, 06:19 PM Reply Like
  • 02/21/2014: EOD stuff partially copied to from instablog (up later).
    # Trds: 9, MinTrSz: 100, MaxTrSz: 9000, Vol 20650, AvTrSz: 2294
    Min. Pr: 0.2911, Max Pr: 0.3001, VW Avg. Tr. Pr: 0.2967
    # Buys, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Buy Pr: 0.0000
    # Sells, Shares: 9 20650, VW Avg Sell Pr: 0.2967
    # Unkn, Shares: 0 0, VW Avg Unk. Pr: 0.0000
    Buy:Sell 0:20650 (0% “buys”), DlyShts 2100 (10.17%), Dly Sht % of 'sells' 10.17%


    Zero “buys” today. In spite of that and the low volume, when sellers are often quick to lower their ask, ask stepped down only a couple of times and it wasn't by the NITE best offer already in place before the open @ $0.3109. The bid opened at $0.291 and moved to $0.2911 five minutes later before falling back again. About 1.5 hours passed between trade # 1 (9:46:11 $0.2911) and #2 ($0.2921 11:17:21). That's pretty much how it went all day – with the bids inching up every so often and the ask staying at $0.3301 and higher all day.


    With a tight spread, volume so low we need a snorkel to see it, a higher low and the offers being very reluctant to drop price, and then in smaller quantities, I think we see strong evidence of a bottom. As Mayascribe suggested today, it looks like (most of?) the fast-money crowd that wanted to exit with their profits may have done so.


    This ought to have a favorable effect on folks waiting to get long as it seems to be solid evidence that downside risk, near-term anyway, is minimal. But I think they'll need to get past worrying about the financing that is needed in Q2, latest, before they are willing to step up big-time.


    Oh! The low detached from my experimental 13-period lower Bollinger limit, $0.2893, today. We can squeeze some Charmin between them, so it counts!


    Other than those comments, I don't think traditional (or even experimental for that matter) TA can carry much weight on today's volume, but since we finished up, and with a higher low, I think a following higher low and rising high over the next few days (tomorrow's Friday – if it's dead don't read much into it) will confirm a near-term, at least, bottom.


    However, having said that, passage of excessive time with no volume, little price movement and no news can change perceptions. Just sayin'!


    On my experimental charts, only my inflection point calculations are worth noting I think. Most periods, which had slowing descents in progress, which IIRC I mentioned yesterday, are actually reversed now. Some had been reversing before, but the overall trend I interpreted as slowing descent. Today I looked at the numbers, rather than just the squiggles. All but two are showing upward bias for the last three days and the squiggles have started making the pattern that leads to a signal that an up move may appear. But there is a caveat: with the recent low volume I can't yet place as much reliance on them as I did in November and subsequent periods.


    In spite of that, my risk-acceptance personality surfaced yesterday and I added a couple trading blocks.


    Details of “Dly Sht % of 'sells'” and inflection points omitted here.


    21 Feb 2013, 06:21 PM Reply Like
  • HTL, Thanks as always.


    One correction I think - The ask dropped down to .302 USD for 25 k shares later in the day.
    21 Feb 2013, 06:42 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks Iindelco - I made one hello of a typo! I know there was no $0.33xx anywhere near best offer.


    Sorry for the bad info.


    21 Feb 2013, 07:29 PM Reply Like
  • Iindelco - checking it looks like I should have said $0.3001 or higher.


    Thanks for checking me on that!


    22 Feb 2013, 05:44 AM Reply Like
  • Hmmm:


    Thursday, February 21, 4:48 PM ET
    PBF Energy ( Chairman Tom O'Malley expects crude by rail to be a long-term trend lasting through the next decade, particularly the movement of Canadian heavy crude. PBF sees crude by rail as key to transforming its east coast refineries from money losers to profit makers, and says it is moving ahead with an expansion of its Delaware refinery to receive up to 150K bbl/day of crude via rail.




    This could be good news for Norfolk, and Axion, if Norfolk uses hybrid locomotives to bring this oil in from Canada to the Delaware refinery.


    OT: This is the first I have heard of any US refinery expanding production capacity in some time (northeast US refining capabilities have been shrinking for years, and since Hurricane Sandy, this reduced capacity and the cold winter is the "blame," the cause of recent higher gas prices).
    21 Feb 2013, 06:56 PM Reply Like
  • >Mayascribe ... There are 3 that are expanding and 1 probable. The 3 are in Delaware, Ohio & Illinois. The probable is in Pennsylvania.


    Moving Canadian oil by rail (and N.Dakota) is really the most practical. It is so heavy that it can roll faster than it can be made to flow. Last week some dimwit in Canada announced he wanted to build a pipeline to B.C. because he thought rail too expensive. Wait till he gets the heating bill to make that tar viscous enough to flow through all those lift stations. His other argument was that too much oil was rolling & flowing south. I guess no one told him it takes a minimum of 8 days for a barrel of oil from Alberta to pipeline its way down to Cushing. A 2 day trip by rail. The Seaway Pipeline is designed to flow 425,000 bbd but doesn't because the mixing of light sweet & Canadian oil only allows 125,00. A problem that will fixed by summer but will not flow at capacity (whatever that means). Keystone will have the same problem and be amplified if/when it is finished to by-pass Cushing (1 month possible).


    Bottom line, railroads have a coal replacement cargo for years to come.
    21 Feb 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • DRich: Thanks!


    --Bottom line, railroads have a coal replacement cargo for years to come.


    Seems this will be true. From what we know, rail transportation anywhere east of the Rockies should work well using hybrid locomotives. Knowing that oil picking up the slack for less coal rail transportation potentially plays well into Axion's future.


    (I too, am following the Cushing/Seaway situation)
    21 Feb 2013, 09:12 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,
    The WSJ recently had a pay-walled story about who benefits most from the inland production of oil in North America. There is an almost-$60 price per barrel difference between Brent Sea crude and Western Canadian Select crude.


    They suggest:
    Plains All American Pipelines (PAA)
    Canadian Pacific Railway (CP)
    Kansas City Southern (KSU) (railway)
    Holly Frontier (HFC)--mid-continental refiner


    They single out Baytex Energy (BTE) as potentially benefitting greatly from the expected narrowing of the differential between inland and coastal ppb due to increased infrastructure (rail car and pipeline) spending. BTE currently yields 5.8%.
    21 Feb 2013, 10:08 PM Reply Like
  • >Renzo ... And therein lay the reason for the Keystone XL. There is no benefit to common people by its construction. The companies listed will no longer benefit because access to that oil. The price of oil available in the N. America will be priced closer to Brent by narrowing, if not close, the arbitrage gap. Kind of makes me scratch my head when I see these people on TV yelling so loudly to build what will make their life more expensive and hand more control of domestic energy to the ICE traders & OPEC.
    21 Feb 2013, 10:37 PM Reply Like
  • DR,
    The weight of the crude and relative transit time vs rail is something I'd never heard discussed in regard to the Keystone pipeline. Very interesting. Thanks.
    21 Feb 2013, 10:56 PM Reply Like
  • >Renzo ... It is one reason (and to me a big one) that Keystone XL is considered to be an environmental hazard regardless of the route chosen. It is very hard on pipe (buried at that) and only works if impeccably maintained. I agreed with the Nebraskan farmers not wanting it to cross the aquifer. The other is reason I'm not a big fan is it will by-pass our established N.American oil distribution system and negate the benefit to the average citizen of Canada & the USA, but I'm rather resigned to the fact that people want corporate governance.
    21 Feb 2013, 11:25 PM Reply Like
  • Maya,


    While east coast refineries have been struggling with the WTI/Brent differential, my favorite refinery, and the only one I still hold, is building a diesel refinery in North Dakota and going gangbusters with high dividend and growth:

    22 Feb 2013, 09:14 AM Reply Like
  • Renzo, SMartin, DRich: Thanks!


    Energy infrastructure stocks have become my central investing theme for 2013, even before. Around three and a half years ago I wrote an Instablog about Canadian Oil Sands, and how the sands could be America's savior against importing oil from the Middle East. I wrote the Insta because I wanted to learn, self teach my way through the history, the costs, the limitations, etc.


    The blog is titled: Will Oil Sands Be America's Trump Card?



    As we know, so much of this investing landscape has changed in three short years, with the Marcellus Shale, Utica, Canadian oil sands, North Dakota, Permian Basin, and many more, such that oil production rose as a YoY percentage increase, more last year than any time since something like 1859.


    It's good to see that there is some increase in refinery capacity. But not near enough.


    The following energy infrastructure stocks I own are, Kinder Morgan, Buckeye Pipelines, Enterprise Transfer Partners, Enterprise Products Partners, Sunoco Logistics Partners, and most recently purchased in early January, Kayne Energy Total Return Fund.


    All have been outperforming the market by a nice amount, at least 10% so far this year, while also all having substantial yields.


    The only oil producer I own is Linn Energy, with a yield north of 8%.


    I'm looking to further diversify in this sector upon any pullback.


    With a recent death in the family, someone who I considered my second mother, I won't be able to take a peek at all of these great investing ideas until after this weekend.


    Thanks all! Appreciated. Have a good weekend.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:45 PM Reply Like
  • Sorry for your loss Maya,
    We look forward to your return.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:11 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, Sorry to hear of your loss.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:35 PM Reply Like
  • Take care, Maya.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:58 PM Reply Like
  • Maya, Sorry for your loss.


    Remember, you are very important to us.-Carlos
    22 Feb 2013, 06:01 PM Reply Like
  • Condolences Maya! A second, IIRC, in a short time can be very stressful.


    I know you'll handle it well though.


    23 Feb 2013, 08:43 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, heavy oils are being moved every day by pipeline. Since the 1980s, heavy oil has been diluted with synthetic crudes or natural gas liquids to a specified viscosity so that it can be transported by pipeline. Heavy or light, oil moves through pipelines at about 2 metres/sec. Moving oil by rail is riskier and much more costly than by pipeline even with the added cost of the diluent.
    23 Feb 2013, 02:26 PM Reply Like
  • >alasmaci ... I guess, if you say so. API doesn't always know what their talking about.
    23 Feb 2013, 02:50 PM Reply Like
  • No doubt we all remember something called a Axion/Rosewater Residential energy HUB. Seems there is lots of competition.


    Bosch offers a Li-ion product.


    NEC Corp's Li-ion offering


    21 Feb 2013, 07:08 PM Reply Like
  • It'd be interesting to see what Rosewater says about the competition.
    21 Feb 2013, 07:55 PM Reply Like
  • Mitsubishi targeting rail is not encouraging.
    21 Feb 2013, 08:57 PM Reply Like
  • From the way the rail technology was described, I believe they're targeting regenerative braking on electrified train systems, much like the SEPTA project in Philadelphia.
    21 Feb 2013, 09:00 PM Reply Like
  • I like to see rail come up here as a subject.
    Reminds of 999!
    News could surface at any time :-)
    21 Feb 2013, 09:10 PM Reply Like
  • LABs, They are too light and Axion's battery is even worse. :(


    Someone will have a special surprise if they get into an NS 999 battery string.


    Thieves Steal Batteries From Train Locomotives

    21 Feb 2013, 07:53 PM Reply Like
  • Damn, another advantage for lithium-ion batteries which have no scrap value to thieves who aren't selling second-life energy storage systems to utilities.
    21 Feb 2013, 08:03 PM Reply Like
  • A little on wind energy projects on Curacao, from October 2012, and other islands. Couldn't find any further links between Nucapital and Axion. Can't recall if this was the firm Axion was mentioned with in the Powerpoint that I believe was previously linked.

    21 Feb 2013, 10:50 PM Reply Like
  • Curaçao trade winds are about 15mph.


    Valero refinery on Aruba closed but lots do oil in the neighborhood so it's a bit surprising that diesel is so expensive.


    Bermuda gets all its oil product from Venezuela.
    We pay $0.43/kwh.
    Sadly our winds are very unreliable.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:28 AM Reply Like
  • Probably not related, but a tweet from Altoonaworks late afternoon:


    There be some big new 'a brewin.' We'll share it with you tomorrow as soon as the official parties announce it.

    21 Feb 2013, 10:55 PM Reply Like
  • Let us pray. Where is that "oooooommm" link Inndelco?
    21 Feb 2013, 11:32 PM Reply Like
  • Hey Bang, It's always a pleasure!


    "Young man, How is it that you do not?" Ooooommmmmm.....


    Walkin' on rice paper us humans that follow Axion are.

    22 Feb 2013, 12:11 AM Reply Like
  • This is interesting WTB. Can't wait to see what this is.
    Is it unusual for them to say "big news" ?
    22 Feb 2013, 07:35 AM Reply Like
  • LT ... yes it is unusual.


    Not sure whether they (and their primary audience) would consider the re-debut of NS-999 BIG news or not, unless they're also announcing follow-on plans. But the plural in "official parties" is something I could make a case for :-) Perhaps NSC, Axion, some Congress-critters, and PSU-Altoona?


    On the other hand ...


    The Red White and Blue painted locomotive honoring Veterans is also back in town, supposedly for repairs.



    Then there's this which matters to a lot of their readers:



    watching those twitter feeds (including )
    22 Feb 2013, 08:17 AM Reply Like
  • Crap ... just found this from the Roanoke Shops Facebook page from yesterday:


    "The Virginia Museum of Transportation will announce a new initiative at a press conference on Friday, February 22 at 11 am.


    Keep an eye on our website and our Facebook page tomorrow afternoon for the big news!"



    Museum site:
    22 Feb 2013, 08:33 AM Reply Like
  • And this one from the NS Locos Facebook site :-(

    22 Feb 2013, 08:55 AM Reply Like
  • wtb....I would say that is your "big news" nice find.... and btw:
    I think that model is one of the coolest loco's since the steam engines, oh would I love to have a private train powered by a new engine with that look. (of course all electric with PbC)
    22 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • That is a cool looking loco for sure.


    Now back to our regularly scheduled watching of the test pattern screen.


    For the youngsters.

    22 Feb 2013, 09:46 AM Reply Like
  • Okay, cool loco, not us:

    22 Feb 2013, 11:02 AM Reply Like
  • WTB, I would think that NS would want to get a couple months of cold weather testing under their belt at the start of the NS999 trial vs waiting until the end of the year. As such I'd think they would want it out in the yard running soon. But hey, what the heck do I know.


    If Batman needed a locomotive that would be the one!
    22 Feb 2013, 11:09 AM Reply Like
  • NSC tweeted this link with more details:



    "Findings are due within 90 days."
    22 Feb 2013, 11:32 AM Reply Like
  • I think the lack of volume is a good indicator that buyers and sellers (most of them) are waiting for the capital raise shoe to drop. Why buy at .30 when there is a reasonable possibility of a capital raise pushing price lower. On the other hand, if a bombshell strategic partner deal goes down and the stock rockets being on the sidelines is going to be gruesome.


    Reminds me of that funny Verizon ad where the nerd who gave his number to three hot ladies hasn't got a call yet and says "I guess it's a waiting game"


    Looks like a Mexican standoff between buyers and sellers to me.
    21 Feb 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • Hi BW,
    You had to say it, now there will be links to "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly". ;-)
    21 Feb 2013, 11:41 PM Reply Like
  • Good one Stilldazed! Final Scene. Here it is:
    21 Feb 2013, 11:57 PM Reply Like
  • It seems Fisker is not happy with the Chinese offer as yet.
    At least this is a faster out of court settlement than I ever expected.



    Fisker And XL Insurance Make A Deal On Those 338 Drowned Karmas


    No Amounts announced.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:59 AM Reply Like
  • Froggy,
    The settlement had to occur prior to the finalization of the sale to a new owner. Valuing a lawsuit of 33 Million is very difficult. Better to settle and know what it is really worth.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:47 AM Reply Like
  • XL is a Bermuda based insurance/re-insurance company.


    There are quite a few of these here.


    Generally they are good bets for those looking for income. Very conservative. RenRe, EverestRe, PartnerRe etc.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:54 AM Reply Like
  • Porsche says no to EVs Yes to PHEVs and hybrids.


    I'll bet Chevy is jumping up and down over this:


    Two Manchester United Players Choose Chevy Volt Over Other Free Chevrolets


    Well it's not the ice capades but a twizy on ice, is nice
    Videos: Renault Twizy Slips and Slides On Ice
    22 Feb 2013, 02:42 AM Reply Like
  • Yep, half a billion dollars advertising in a market where they are losing their a$%. Plus, without the tax write off for writing down good will "The General" is still losing money outside of China. Another "govment" mess.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:57 AM Reply Like
  • New Leaf is in some showrooms.
    2013 Nissan LEAF Rated At 75 Miles. But 84 Miles Using The Outgoing 2012 EPA Ratings System
    Higher MPC than the 2011&12s


    Over on
    There are 408 new Leafs in total
    2011 total 32 .... Still listing some 2011s in the mid $30k range.
    2012 total 179 ... The most expensive 100 priced cars are 2012s
    2013 total 207 ... The third cheapest car is a 2013 at 22,800
    22 Feb 2013, 02:59 AM Reply Like
  • Gee, an EV getting more range and a substantially lower price as well. Imagine that....
    22 Feb 2013, 08:48 AM Reply Like
  • "Gee, an EV getting more range and a substantially lower price as well. Imagine that...."


    And the profit margin is ???
    You seem to think business is going to boom because the price
    is lower. I think its a last gasp before they "pull the plug" on the whole concept.
    I don't think price is lower because costs are down, I think it's lower cause regular people don't see a compelling value & Nissan is dumping them. If they can't make a profit, the model will die.
    It's Basic Business! Something I'm not sure you understand based on your arguments.


    Loss leader pricing isn't going to get them to the tipping point of profitability, the general public just doesn't care. There's no easily understood value proposition .... The cars take too much care and planning to be reliable. Most people won't plan their lives around the car, they expect the car to be available for their life without planning.


    I have a "philosophically committed" friend who has a Prius and a Leaf. He lives about 15 miles from me. I asked why he wasn't using the leaf to come visit the other day. He doesn't trust the range in winter if he uses the heater.... It's a 30 mile round trip !!!


    He can afford a useless extra car, I wonder how many others can.
    We'll see how the sales numbers work out this year ....
    I think they are going to stay pathetic.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:15 AM Reply Like
  • That's funny, CO3. If the Leaf is just a spare car then wouldn't it be best to not buy it at all and save all the resources and energy that went into making it?


    It's like oil is the only scarce resource that some people can think of.


    22 Feb 2013, 11:25 AM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie,
    Emphasis on "philosophically COMMITTED" ....
    Guy lives off the grid, in a dome, HUGE solar system
    (this is Vermont), burns wood .....
    Doesn't get out much cause he spends so much time
    taking care of his "systems" ....
    Might be related to our "tireless" friend ....
    Trust fund .....
    Nice guy, but no clue how the rest of the world has to live .....
    22 Feb 2013, 02:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sounds like a nice setup, but he obviously should have bought a Model S. Maybe he's waiting for the Model X.
    23 Feb 2013, 11:50 AM Reply Like
  • >jrp3 ... Or maybe this

    23 Feb 2013, 11:53 AM Reply Like
  • love that VW diesel hybrid!
    23 Feb 2013, 12:02 PM Reply Like
  • I agree with the writer of another article on the VW ride you posted. Looks like a modern day EV1. Obviously nothing in common. I'm sure it's mostly due to the rear wheel skirts.


    In the article VW went through some long dissertation about how they would be assembled and it basically came down to "hand crafted" AKA low volume. May be another market access key to satisfy the "California Dreamin" crowd which is fine because then we don't have to hear about how someone got a tow "On such a winters day". Well, as long as they keep em in the South of Cali.
    23 Feb 2013, 12:09 PM Reply Like
  • Looks like VW has been talking to ePower.


    Serial diesel hybrid is a nice ride.
    23 Feb 2013, 02:51 PM Reply Like
  • DRich,
    If they pulled the ICE out of it and added more batteries I'd agree ;)
    That thing would have a great watt hour/mile rating.
    24 Feb 2013, 11:12 AM Reply Like
  • I've been thinking about this ever since I really understood the ePower system. Further reading on this VW is on gas only we are looking at 140/mpg. This car isn't very practical as it has only a 1 litre gas tank but if you put in a 5 gallon gas tank so you could go 400-500 miles per tank @ 100mpg and get its price down you would sell a billion of them.


    When John first mentioned ePower eons ago I couldn't get excited and I had the same skepticism as others on the 10mpg potential. Now that I get the improvement and understanding of what a serial hybrid is I get really giddy about AXPW. If you can see that improvement for a Class 8 truck - could you get a 50% boost for a serial hybrid in your car or truck. Could a minivan get 30, 40 mpg?


    My thesis has always been to value this company at .6 sales like other battery companies are. If however AXPW is successful and can protect its IP then different, better multiples await. IIndelcos note over the weekend was simply outstanding.
    26 Feb 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • Don't think this process is applicable to AGM but a good example of the types of industrialization steps Axion needs to scale. This being with the right partner(s). Axion's battery plant is great for development and initial industrialization but is antiquated for large scale manufacturing. Product is fine it's just too expensive vs higher automation levels.


    First National Battery leading the charge with new greener technology



    BTW A reminder that this is the supplier for the South African BMW 3 series that is exported to the US.
    22 Feb 2013, 10:53 AM Reply Like
  • Here partner, whistle whistle whistle. Come on boy.


    Ioxus expects to announce its first ultracap-battery product with Enersys this year


    "Ioxus is initially targeting the large UPS markets—e.g., data centers—where lead acid traditionally has dominated, but which need smaller or higher power products."

    22 Feb 2013, 12:30 PM Reply Like
  • Sometimes it's hard not to take this stuff personally.


    Why not us? What's wrong with us?


    I know it isn't a problem with the technology. Did I forget to put deodorant on this morning?


    22 Feb 2013, 01:08 PM Reply Like
  • D. McHattie, For me it's a real head scratcher. I'm starting to wonder if TG is reaching a little too far with his expectations from a partnership. Opportunities missed often don't return.


    But then I just need to admit I have no idea what the heck is going on relative to partnering opportunities. And that's not great either.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:39 PM Reply Like
  • >D.McHattie & iindelco ... I don't understand why it is perplexing that Enersys & others are scrambling to adopt the Continental AG supercapcitor solution. It has been deemed legitimate by an OEM. It is not exclusive to Maxwell. It doesn't alter the current offering of product. It is the cheapest & least disruptive attempt to solve a disruptive application. Seems simple.


    I would think that if BMW (or any other application) would implement the PbC we would see the major battery manufacturers start looking at ways to differentiate their product line using PbC. No customers ... no interest. Also, seems simple.
    22 Feb 2013, 01:56 PM Reply Like
  • But the Maxwell 'solution' doesn't solve the stop/start problem, DRich.


    It's the hotel loads that add strain to the battery and the supercapacitor does nothing to address the hotel loads - the supercap just assists in re-starting.


    So the AGM that is coupled with the supercap is going to deteriorate just as fast as if it was being used without the supercap.


    And we know that even the best AGM (as well as the Ultrabattery) deteriorates rapidly under start/stop usage.


    So the question remains as to why so much enthusiasm about the Ultrabatt and the supercap and no love for the one technology that actually solves the problem.


    22 Feb 2013, 03:16 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I'm not perplexed about the LAB suppliers coupling offerings with the ultracap suppliers. I'm perplexed with the fact that Axion can't seem to find it's way into a partnership given some of the advantages I feel exist in their product offering.


    One might argue that TG is being hard nosed and holding out for the best offer but when you're raising funds at these levels you have to look at the whole equation.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:44 PM Reply Like
  • >D.McHattie ... "So the AGM ... coupled with the supercap is going to deteriorate just as fast as ... without ...." And your point is what exactly? The supercaps can pick up charge from regen or alternator, start the car & last nearly forever in respect to the car. So the battery part won't work for its intended purpose for very long, which is not a problem because (as has been pointed out before) consumers will just turn the system off. Win-Win for battery manufacturers. Those few consumers that do insist on S/S working then battery replacement will work until these consumers press the issue. That could take years to gain traction and in the meantime (hypothetically) lobby hard to make sure S/S is not included into regulatory oversight ... like vehicle inspection or some sort of post purchase mileage requirement/study.


    Without someone, like a BMW, standing up saying it works and implementing it into a model line, I think Axion is frozen out. To date I can't even hear the crickets chirping over the deafening silence. Axion needs a customer. I don't care who that might be.
    22 Feb 2013, 03:46 PM Reply Like
  • I, too, don't find it perplexing that well entrenched LA battery OEMs are pursuing all other available options before turning to Axion for C electrodes. Seems to me that BMW and other OEMs are maintaining pressure on the battery OEMs to provide suitable solutions at lowest price point achievable. They likely see it in their interest to encourage battery OEMs to pursue alternatives to the PbC and stonewall Axion until Axion either folds or reduces its C electrode asking price to near commodity levels. Granting a design award for PbC use would substantially strengthen Axion's negotiating position with battery OEMs.


    I don't believe it realistic to look for an automotive design award for PbC without one or more of three things happen -- 1) Axion successfully commercializes PbC technology through sales for rail, trucking, and/or energy storage applications, 2) Axion qualifies its' AGM and electrode production lines to auto OEM specs and/or 3) Axion is acquired for a song with virtual write-off of all its R&D expenses. Award to NSC of a new patent on January 1 raises the possibility that 1) is further along than we know at the moment.


    22 Feb 2013, 04:00 PM Reply Like
  • The simpler explanation is that Exide and Enersys both need solutions they can sell to customers in relevant volume today, as in February 22, 2013.


    Even if they had aggressive partnership relationships with Axion that would position them to launch a PbC product line at relevant scale in a year or two it wouldn't solve the today problem.


    Neither company is investing wads of cash in Maxwell or Ioxus, which they'd have to do if they partnered with Axion. On balance, I see both partnerships as "better than nothing" and less risky.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:10 PM Reply Like
  • John, would it really have to be a year or two to get to relevant scale? They have the floor space, so wouldn't it be something like "order several duplicates of gen2a lines, wait ~3mos for delivery, set them up, tune and groom, and then start cranking out electrodes for shipment to existing AGM factories"? If cash and orders were in hand, couldn't that all be done well within a year?
    22 Feb 2013, 04:16 PM Reply Like
  • Seems to me that the battery OEM's better solve the stop/start issue before that technology is launched in the USA in volume.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:18 PM Reply Like
  • D-Inv: I completely agree with your first paragraph and have written similar stuff myself.


    I think Axion's first substantial revenues must come from the trucking rebuilds because the buyers individually have little power over Axion and their purchase decision, which is a very short timeline, will be based entirely on their economics, which look very, very favorable.


    I would be shocked if BMW were to commit itself to using the Axion battery without having a roughly equivalent second source. All that would do is hurt their profits. We also know that the regulators aren't going to force automakers to use an unproven product which BMW can continue to claim as long as they don't use it.


    This brings us back to the other markets: NS, utilities, and trucking OEMs. All of those have super-long testing periods. Personally, I think NS will buy batteries for one mainline locomotive this year - that's it. The rest still have years to go in their cycles with the possible exception of the anti-idle for trucks.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:19 PM Reply Like
  • 481086> It depends on how you define relevant scale. With 10 electrode lines Axion could make electrode assemblies for a million batteries per year, a number that would be darned relevant to Axion. When you consider that a million batteries a year is less than 3% of expected global demand for micro-hybrid batteries in 2015, it doesn't look so relevant.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:29 PM Reply Like
  • >iindelco ... If there was something Axion has done that might possibly be construed as a misstep it would be the emphasis the company has put into pursuing automotive. It has been immense help to the company in improved manufacture and other ways that I can't even know or understand but I feel that the limited resources have been diverted from finding that early adopter ... like an ePower (in need of PbC batteries for years).


    There is no way for me to know but I have harbored the thought that the world's lack of knowledge of the PbC strengths, specifications or existence has been wrapped up somehow in NDA's with potential whales that don't offer or generate income. Starvation now in exchange for huge future potential. I can only hope (not a good investment thesis) that management has made the right choice or broaden their view a little.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:33 PM Reply Like
  • Copy all John, but somehow there seems a huge piece of dark matter floating around in all of this... I mean 2015 just ain't that far away... 18 months from now we're staring 2015 right in the teeth... But it's going to be 30 million MH batteries a year by then? From whence? To my somewhat impaired tinman-scarecrow psyche (only half a brain and half a heart total), something. just. does. not. compute.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:38 PM Reply Like
  • >481086 ... I've had it stuck in my head that 2017 was the automotive target year but I tend to agree with your thinking it will take the better part of a year to ramp Axion. With that in mind Axion would have to be in construction by April-June 2015 which would place contract finalization sometime no later than Sept of 2014. That, to me, make this year the watershed year. If Dec 2013 comes & goes ... I think automotive is a pipe dream. OK by me. Trucks, trains & a few odd ball niches I can think of would make for a good business and the ones that drew me here in the first place.
    22 Feb 2013, 04:56 PM Reply Like
  • Every time we contemplate S/S the conversation takes off about the Huge market for Axion that can ensue. We never stop and remember that the PbC will Not be used until regenerative braking is employed in a non traditional hybrid. The type of luxury auto that will first be put out by the BMW's of the world. The time is not yet here for mass production needs of the PbC for auto.


    Further, we forget that AGM battery capacity is not ready for a prime time explosion. Soon but not yet. Especially with the micro's taking so many AGM batteries.


    Autos are not here yet for the PbC. PowerCube, Viridity, RR, and trucks. Those are today's orders and Axion has capacity to provide.


    But I can dream of an announcement like everybody else.
    22 Feb 2013, 05:28 PM Reply Like
  • DR> " Trucks, trains & a few odd ball niches I can think of would make for a good business"


    Agreed, but what I can't readily determine is a reasonable time frame for these markets to develop into a sales volume that would support Axion's cashflow requirements - aka break even. Axion doesn't have forever for that to happen.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:14 PM Reply Like
  • Futurist> Last year's great hope was PowerCubes - sold? Nota.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:18 PM Reply Like
  • >bangwhiz ... I wish I could guess what a realistic time frame might be. I don't really have the slimmest of grasp as to where any market Axion is competing in stands with respect to sales. The best view comes to us from Mr. Petersen via ePower Engine Systems but that is something officially stands as rumor because of no corporate announcement.


    I consider this year, 2013, do or die for business activity to show itself and, per Futurist in the heading of APC #89, "He (Mr. Granville) even went so far as to predict that 2013 would be the year that Axion breaks even on a cash flow basis." We will see ... I guess, but it would be nice to see in a quarterly and hear from an authoritative source.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:50 PM Reply Like
  • DR> I'm trying very hard to find a pony under here somewhere, but actually the transcript on Axion's website for the conference call that predicted Q4 2013 was edited with the insertion of "before EBTIA".
    22 Feb 2013, 08:24 PM Reply Like
  • DR,
    Oh sure. Use Bangs Axion concentrator search engine and then use my own words against me. How cruel.


    But I still think that TG had a very good idea where that money was coming from. If he was wrong I hope he admits it and moves on. If he was right he can simply acknowledge it was a statement that he stands by.


    I don't recall him retracting it as he has other misstatements.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:09 PM Reply Like
  • Just to clarify my part, I meant cosmic dark matter, not the kind with which plumbing is often concerned... the whole automotive thing right now just seems like a slow motion head-on train wreck... with one train carrying chickens and the other eggses.


    We have serious researchers saying ~30 million SS vehicles a year only two years away... and at present only very imperfect incumbent battery solutions for them... even allowing for carbon-additive AGM's...


    I mean, is worldwide capacity for AGMs going to be anywhere near 30 million annually just two years from now? It sounds like either they're just not going to actually be making that many SS vehicles in reality, or if they are, they purposefully intend to put incredibly inadequate batteries into the bulk of them and then what? let the chips fall where they may? It just doesn't seem like a coherent plan. Their roadmap forward seems to have huge undefined "and here be dragons" spaces all over it. And time is getting short. Something's gotta give. Either they won't comply, their compliance will be a meaningless sham with basically a built-to-fail system, or they will have to embrace some other solution or go in some different direction. But again, time is getting short for that. What gives? Just seems with the pieces on the board right now, it's a can't-get-there-from-here type of situation for them, at least not without some big leaps of risk...
    22 Feb 2013, 09:46 PM Reply Like
  • >Futurist ... Be Loud, Be Proud.


    I don't remember TG retracting either, so it may be visible to him. The issue for me is that vision is bottled up somewhere in New Castle. If the market and I aren't going to be privy to the basis of the claim the only inkling we will have for the veracity of that statement will be the terms of the financing round we know is coming or, better still, the fulfillment of the quest for a strategic partner. Until then, languishing along with the stock is how the next several months will be. I don't have any firm reason to think that any of the on-going projects will result in the sudden appearance of a manufacturing backlog.
    22 Feb 2013, 09:50 PM Reply Like
  • 48, Thus far BMW is not getting high marks for their SS system in the area of battery life or in seamless operation. We already saw the reprogramming in the US to disable the system w/o having to select it every time the car is turned on. Also I've seen a lot of reviews similar to this one.


    Pretty poor for a range of upper end vehicles.


    2013 BMW X1 xDrive28i: The Jalopnik Review


    "My biggest qualm, though, is with the start-stop system. We've gotten to the point where most manufactures have seamless transitions between full stop/engine-off and the engine winding back up. Perhaps it's my habit of wandering off the brake pedal at stops, but I noticed the start-stop working multiple times. If I notice it, that's bad. You can always turn it off, but I like saving fuel when commuting."

    22 Feb 2013, 10:22 PM Reply Like
  • >481086 ... I agree. Something seems to be amiss here. I tender my vote for "meaningless sham with basically a built-to-fail system".
    22 Feb 2013, 10:23 PM Reply Like
  • DRich, I feel TG and the team would have been provided program timing from a company like BMW indicating a possible adoption window. They should have known the time and resources required to satisfy automotive. Has this window slipped putting pressure on Axion? We have no way to know. But if we assume PbC would have been used for advanced SS I've seen no information in the public domain that would indicate that timing might have slipped measurably. I will however caution that the information we have access to is pretty inadequate to garner a full assessment in this area.


    I share your feelings relative to how things that might assist Axion in gaining support is probably buried in NDA's. I also worry that possible customers are cautious due to Axion's limited resources.
    22 Feb 2013, 10:49 PM Reply Like
  • Thanks gents... I know it's all gotta evolve/devolve one way or the other...and it will be interesting to see just how, though I more or less share DR's vote as to which way.. and dang it, the whole thing still just keeps triggering my facepalm reflex something fierce...
    22 Feb 2013, 10:54 PM Reply Like
  • Good question for the conference call.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:09 PM Reply Like
  • A going concern statement in the 10Q doesn't inspire customer confidence for sure.
    22 Feb 2013, 11:13 PM Reply Like
  • We don't know anything.


    The next CC might tell us something or that we have another 3 months to wait for something worth hearing.


    Time is indeed getting short for Axion to get a piece of SS, but it's crazy to throw in the towel now because PbC is the solution that works and AGM is junk.


    This CC? Next?


    Are going to miss the boat, or is our ship going to come in?


    Don't ask me . . .
    23 Feb 2013, 03:08 AM Reply Like
  • "Perhaps it's my habit of wandering off the brake pedal at stops, but I noticed the start-stop working multiple times. If I notice it, that's bad. You can always turn it off, but I like saving fuel when commuting."


    I find it interesting that this consumer is complaining about the engine re-starting when his foot leaves the gas pedal while he is stopped. The S/S systems are designed to restart the engine when your foot leaves the brake and restarts the engine before you can get your foot to the accelerator pedal. If the engine restarted so seamlessly as he suggests ,then the car would creep forward because he wasn't on the brake. He needs the system combined with an automatic parking brake. This holds the car for him and would restart upon his foot hitting the gas.


    Does anyone really drive without a foot on the brake at stop lights or stop signs? Maybe its just me, but I use a brake.
    23 Feb 2013, 08:06 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, My read is that it's a rough start. If it's anything other than that BMW hasn't used time delays between functions properly.
    23 Feb 2013, 08:26 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist: "the PbC will Not be used until regenerative braking is employed in a non traditional hybrid"


    Why? Since the PbC DCA would allow fast re-charge from the alternator and would be able to accomplish its task, hotel loads, why would re-gen braking be mandatory? I can see it as an "even better fit", but I don't see lack of it as a show stopper.


    If it is a show stopper, we have a chicken and egg problem: braking re-gen can't be effectively handled by AGM, so PbC (or Li-ion?) or such is needed and there's likely no braking re-gen implemented; Li-ion may be too expensive and PbC can't reach relevant scale until braking re-gen is to be implemented.


    23 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • I think it's possibly more correct to say that PbC won't be used until an automaker decides to use a 2 battery model. Is anyone doing that yet?
    23 Feb 2013, 10:44 AM Reply Like
  • After the 300% growth renege .... TG said he would no longer give guidance.
    23 Feb 2013, 04:39 PM Reply Like
  • All, 6 months ago during the CC TG said this


    "As long as we’re talking slow, our automotive initiative does continue to make progress, of course, at a slower pace than we would wish. Our most established relationship/strategic partner has finished their testing and our product is currently undergoing required third-party validation at a European test facility. We continue to work here in the U.S. with a large automotive company and for the first time, we have begun conversations and are setting up final test protocols to begin a relationship with a large Asian vehicle manufacturer. We are very excited about this new opportunity and anxious to begin work. It should be noted that our previous vehicle testing with OEMs has been reviewed and most of it will not need to be repeated here. In fact, it’s possible we will be in test vehicles in less than six months."


    The first question was from M. Karpoff of Gramercy Investment
    Partners about SS and TGs' response.


    "My question is in regard to the OEM testing for the stop/start battery. Can you please give us a little more detail on why the test program is going more slowly than you had hoped and an approximate time line which if all things go as we hope, the battery gets into over-the-road vehicles?"


    "Maybe I wasn’t as clear as I should have been on that. I meant the overall initiative taking longer than what we had hoped for. The test, the final testing is still on schedule. That is ongoing. That is ongoing in Europe and as we stated before, the test duration is a six to eight month test, which can be at the discretion of the OEM curtailed and ended early if in fact they achieve the same results that we’ve achieved here at Axion and that the OEM has achieved in the same test in their facility."


    "What is the approximate time line beyond that assuming they’re happy with the results? Can you give us some idea of what the project looks like from here going forward into vehicles on the road? Is there any way to do that?


    We’ve been led to believe, and we have no reason not to believe that this is correct, that upon the completion or upon the ending of those tests, they will be ready to put the batteries in larger fleet testing on the road. So, at the completion of this test, this is the last step we’ve been told; this is the last step that they are required to go through in order to put a product into fleet testing."


    Later in the Q&A


    H. Berkowitz
    "On the BMW contract, when will a decision be made by them? I mean as I understand, we all understand automotive companies, they have to prepare these lines some 18 months or longer in advance. And so, one would think that if this is going to be in even a 2014 or maybe even 2015, you would have to know that well in advance of that model year. I’m just curious when you expect a decision to be made and what model year might it be available."


    " I don’t know what model year they’re referring to. I do know they’re
    talking about fleet testing. I do know they’re talking about fleet testing in the near-term. By the “near-term” I’m talking six months or less now that the testing has actually begun. I don’t know what their plans are in that regard; I can’t really speak for them, but there are certain applications that are drop in applications where it doesn’t require a lot of structural change or any structural change. I’m probably talking too much already here, but that’s really something that—"


    H. Berkowitz
    " Will it be used in the BMWs on a start/stop type of application or what will be the actual usage?"


    " Yes. Again, I can’t speak for them, but from what they’ve told us and from what all the OEMs have told us, everything that’s marketed in the future will be stop/start. Everything short of plug-in hybrid electric or a full electric vehicle … will contain some form of stop/start. So, it will be across the entire fleet that they will be utilizing stop/start. How they’ll do it and how they’ll do it with different models certainly is something that’s ongoing with them. We certainly aren’t privy to that, but they have told us that it will be across the entire fleet."


    And 1 more fleet testing question from me.


    " I have one more question for you then. The BMW, you mentioned that fleet testing was possibly going to start in about six months. With this new OEM top five vehicle manufacturer, the advanced stage testing with them, it sounded like you were saying that could possibly start as fleet testing as well without duplicating all the bench testing."


    " No, not fleet testing as such, but vehicle testing and if I said fleet testing, I meant to say vehicle testing; in other words, having the product out in their vehicles to get test results from it. By “fleet testing” what I’m referring to is a large number of vehicles, not just five or ten."


    " Yes, I said “fleet,” you didn’t. All right, thank you very much, Tom."


    The Q3 CC has TG answering a M. Karpoff question and saying "we do have batteries in other OEMs vehicles." but not much else was clarified about the current status of ongoing testing by any auto OEMs during the rest of the CC.
    Here are my thoughts.


    BMW 3rd party testing should be done already or any day now.When will we know? CC at the end of march. The Asian automaker should have cars with PbCs in them doing in-vehicle testing. When will we know for sure? CC end of March. If we don't expect a PR when fleet testing starts with BMW then we sure will find out at the CC. If we don't get any news before the Q4 CC (not counting financing if announced) there will be a ton to talk about. How long do we think fleet testing could last, 6/9/12 months? Does a fleet testing confirmation with BMW make anyone besides me believe that 2015 model year PbC Beemers are possible?
    Let me have it, tell me what I am missing? Tell me why 2016 or 2017 and not 2015?
    23 Feb 2013, 07:01 PM Reply Like
  • >KentG ... I keep the 2017 model year as a target because it is the regulatory date for compliance. The other reason for using 2017 is that nothing has ever happened on an expedited timeline. I'll take something happening before that as a pleasant surprise. I really feel nearly certain that the first auto OEM product will originate in New Castle as completed batteries and would eat up the available capacity. That means a ramp, hopefully, is required to support auto & other customers and I think to that properly will take the better part of a year from negotiation to supply chain to production certification.
    23 Feb 2013, 08:00 PM Reply Like
  • <<<Does anyone really drive without a foot on the brake at stop lights or stop signs? Maybe its just me, but I use a brake.


    Futurist, you make a great point. The '06 BMW I bought a couple years ago has that exact feature: where you stop the car and the "parking brake" AUTO sets *until* you press the gas pedal.


    So I tried it... but to your point above it really felt superfluous and downright awkward... and furthermore almost counter-intuitive... because in my feeble mind, my foot must be depressing the brake so that I know (with tactile sense) that my car will "stay put".


    It's really an unnecessary item (like tits on a boar) but if Start-Stop operates anywhere near that sort of quickness, I can tell you it is seamless.
    23 Feb 2013, 11:20 PM Reply Like
  • KG ... IF one accepts auto OEMs need 18 or more months to prepare production lines, supply contracts, etc. for a new model, any "design award" for a 2015 model year vehicle with an October intro would be decided about now. If PbCs have not been in large scale fleet testing for six months or more a 2015 model year equipped with PbC is not in the tarrot cards. OTOH, if PbCs have been placed in large scale fleet testing for a "street model" vehicle since the last CC, a 2016 model year design award is possible.


    On model year, though, it seems to me that auto OEMs have begun introducing new models at different times of the year. Some at the first of the year, some in Spring, some in Fall, etc.
    23 Feb 2013, 11:26 PM Reply Like
  • Kent G. Flat out I think 2014 CY for an automotive OEM win is out of the question unless it's for some ultra low volume application to get some experience. Even this is a long shot.


    Reasons for this stance:


    - Axion hasn't even completed fleet testing.


    - Axion is not qualified for automotive. This process takes great preparation.


    -Axion is not capitalized for automotive. Not enough capacity supply chains not in place etc.


    - Axion has not negotiated an agreement with a tier 1 supplier. I think it a very low probability that any large scale automotive concern will want to manage Axion directly. And Axion's battery lines are not competitive. Long shot would be for a low volume application as a shot across the bow message.


    Many other reasons but these are a few primary one's. Automotive programs are very complex and take great efforts to have all the pieces come together come "series production". In order to have this happen auto concerns are not in the habit of taking suppliers and putting them in a foot race in the end to meet timing. There are enough unforeseen events that come into play without creating them.


    IMO Axion is starting to get tight in the timeline for a 2015 CY launch. They need capital and interested party agreements soon. They are not even close to being an automotive supplier in any area other than their technology (We hope and I'm betting on it.).
    24 Feb 2013, 07:39 AM Reply Like
  • DRich, I get where you are coming from.


    D-inv, I am not sure about the 18 months to prepare a production line (maybe for a new model?) and we don't know if the PbC will be in a new model or added as an update to an existing model. We will see in about 35 days.


    iin, nobody thinks 2014 anymore and I agree that if things don't start happening soon 2015 may not be possible either. In the end they don't want to be a automotive supplier, they will be and component supplier to the LAB industry.


    thanks for all your thoughts


    25 Feb 2013, 09:31 AM Reply Like
  • BA meets with FAA today ... yesterday's speculation on what they will reveal, and do (NY Times)



    United says no till June 5 (Reuters):

    22 Feb 2013, 01:22 PM Reply Like
  • Nothing like fuel leaks coupled with battery fires.
    22 Feb 2013, 07:22 PM Reply Like
  • For anyone interested this page has all the patents granted to NSC for the battery locos. Good reference page.

    22 Feb 2013, 01:33 PM Reply Like
  • Interesting stuff, iind. Thanks!


    Patent award to NSC published March 20, 2012. PbC battery P.O. to Axion announced April 26.


    Patent award to NSC published Jan. 1, 2013. Axion PR on Jan. 11, 2013 headlined "Axion Power PbC Batteries Continue To Demonstrate Effectiveness For Railroad Applications."
    22 Feb 2013, 03:08 PM Reply Like
  • Primary Inventor of the UltraBattery Retires
    Published on February 22, 2013 at 4:21 AM

    22 Feb 2013, 01:53 PM Reply Like
  • It looks like Exide is expanding its lithium-ion offerings as well...



    "Working closely with several materials handling OEMs and end users, GNB has assessed the value of lithium-ion and the benefits it can provide over its lead-acid equivalents. The main advantage was found to be an increase in productivity. As lithium-ion can be fast charged (typically taking only one hour to fully charge) during regular existing breaks in the working day, for example lunch times, unproductive periods that result from lead tray exchange are avoided. It is also more efficient during the charge cycle, which leads to lower electricity consumption and consequently a reduction in utility costs. "
    22 Feb 2013, 02:40 PM Reply Like
  • Bid is down to $.28xx again...
    22 Feb 2013, 03:11 PM Reply Like
  • My post from the same time last month:


    "To be more clear, I was anticipating a low volume period immediately before the selling spike (which was not itself low volume). This spike occurred because there was no firm support north of $.30 for that sort of volume. Potential buyers are lurking rather than aggressively buying.


    I believe there is stronger support in the $.2x's, though perhaps primarily to be found around the potential new funding target of about $.25.


    We could see a series of these events, interspersed with low volume periods, until the short attention span theatre season ticket holders depart in disgust.


    Those with no stomach for a return to the $.2x's are likely to join them. We may also see longs trim their positions or take profits on trading blocs acquired at the recent lows...


    But I expect some volatility as support chases low selling spikes back up to the median around $.33-.35."


    Now we will see if a bounce back to $.33-.35 materializes. It COULD, assuming some (any) even vaguely positive announcement from the company.


    Right now I would expect the stopwatch to start ticking toward the next funding IF we see news that can lift the share price.
    23 Feb 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • As regards the recent proposed sale of Fisker Automotive to a Chinese company (and the previous sale of A123):


    "Senators Charles Grassley (R-IA) and John Thune (R-SD) are speaking up and objecting to the sale. Senator Grassley told Bloomberg News, 'Technology developed with American taxpayer subsidies should not be sold off to China." Senator Thune said, 'Obama's green energy investments appear to be nothing more than venture capital for eventual Chinese acquisitions.' "

    22 Feb 2013, 09:06 PM Reply Like
  • Complaining that the barn door is open when the horse is already gone is great theatre, but fundamentally useless. The sale of A123 to Wanxiang is already done and closed. The good senators might just as well be arguing about a bad call during the Superbowl.
    22 Feb 2013, 10:20 PM Reply Like
  • The Focus averaged about 170 the last two months of the year.
    Despite the number of dealers multiplying Ford doesn't expect a lot from it. (To get the other versions PHEV and as well hybrid (I think) Dealers had to sign on for the EV.


    Ford Doesn’t Expect Focus Electric Sales to Increase by Much in 2013
    'Even with 900 EV Certified dealers set to be ready for action in Spring 2013, Ford says sales of its Focus Electric likely won’t increase substantially.
    Despite reduced lease rates and expanded availability of the Focus Electric, Ford sees only lukewarm sales of its only pure electric vehicle in 2013.


    According to Ford, sales of its lone pure electric vehicle, the Focus Electric, will likely comprise no more than 5 percents of its electrified (hybrid, plug-in hybrid and battery-only) vehicle sales, at least in the foreseeable future. In 2012, the Focus Electric, with sales of only 685 units, represented just 2 percent of Ford’s total electrified vehicle sales.


    But tepid sales aren’t actually a disappointment to Ford. As the automaker’s group marketing manager, C.J. O’Donnell, told the Detroit News:


    “Overall, it’s meeting our expectations in the marketplace. I think as we expand the footprint, by definition, we will get more customers.”


    O’Donnell isn’t suggesting that sales of the Focus Electric will soon boom. Rather, he sees slow but gradual growth.


    As expected, nearly 90 percent of Focus Electric sales have been in California, but O’Donnell says it’s not a compliance vehicle. His response is that he hears the mention of compliance and believes it’s too strong a word. O’Donnell says that Ford’s goal is to “offer customers choice.” And that’s why the Focus Electric is available across most of the nation. If customers want it, then it’s available.


    To sum it up, Focus Electric sales will likely increase in 2013, but not by much."
    22 Feb 2013, 11:15 PM Reply Like
  • translation: "Okay so we're throwing your lousy EV party, but we didn't rent that big of a hall, and it looks like we called it right.. "
    23 Feb 2013, 01:00 AM Reply Like
  • oh look, another obvious oil company shill out to deceive the world:



    John, you're cited again... (first link in the piece)
    23 Feb 2013, 03:20 AM Reply Like
  • "The machines are supposed to work for us; we don't work for them."


    Many humans forgot this years ago. Especially when it comes to Americans. How many of them are buying cars that are way outside of their ability to afford them? As I've said of these people "They don't drive their cars they wear them. (This being a reflection of people that spend way too much on clothing trying to create some facade intended to carry into their self worth.").
    23 Feb 2013, 08:51 AM Reply Like
  • His logic and his taste in supporting authority are unassailable.


    It reminds me of the old story about the guy who bought an ill fitting suit and found that with a combination of contortions and odd body positions he could get the suit to fit just right.


    One day while he was limp shuffling down the street an older woman was heard to remark "oh that poor deformed man" to which her companion replied "yeah but he's wearing a great suit."
    23 Feb 2013, 09:03 AM Reply Like
  • That's the famous one man show from Fernand Raynaud in 1966:


    "Réussir un si beau costume sur un homme si mal foutu !"
    23 Feb 2013, 09:16 AM Reply Like
  • I'd not heard that story. Very "fitting".
    23 Feb 2013, 10:19 AM Reply Like
  • It was tailored for this thread!
    23 Feb 2013, 10:46 AM Reply Like
  • No need to rehash all the lack of news & my zero faith in mgt. unless something really big breaks....but I will add that IMO these NDA's that have created zero transparency have outlived their purpose.


    I can guarantee that all major players know what the others are testing, and have probably done the same. It's to the point that if a company wants to test PbC if they won't disclose it, then let them buy a crappy AGM.
    While I am on AGM, IMO, the auto's are going to stay with the cheapest until either the gov't mandates improvement to make SS work or lawsuits force change. Cheap is the name of the game, Boeing is a prime example. If I were chairman of the board, I would fire the CEO immediately. Never before has such an important product to a company had multiple delays, and more problems every day with another me the whole damn thing is flawed from front to back and every system will have to be redesigned.
    S/S autos are not much different.
    23 Feb 2013, 07:06 AM Reply Like
  • I see more people getting anxious and realizing that AXPW's window of opportunity is shrinking now every month as we near a one year window for 2015 model design announcement.


    If we miss this window, as far as I am concerned it is over. Too much competition is coming from strong competitors that have frozen AXPW out of the mkt. They may find niche mkt's. but won't be a major player.


    For newbies, get used to it, this is the way it has been for years. Disappointment after disappointment on bringing anything to market.


    The only one thing that keeps me invested at all is the possibility of an announcement over night with no warning of a design win by a major and/or a partner. When we miss that window I am gone, forever no matter what happens.


    Without a break through, this next capital raise structured like the last one will be disastrous for us. Before it's said, JP, I just don't buy the dilution theory that the company is better off than before. What I have seen is that we raise cash, and year later the cash is gone - more stock is now outstanding - need more cash - more stock outstanding - no sales to show for it.
    At some point we are betting it pays off, it's just a gamble. Nothing more. Even if it does, I do not see the high rewards that some view such as $10/share.
    23 Feb 2013, 07:16 AM Reply Like
  • LT,
    Capital raises do make it more difficult for the stock to reach higher prices in the future. More shares mean less profit per share. But I think most present day stockholders want the ability to move into that future. That is the guarantee of any new stock issuance.


    You keep pointing fingers at the auto S/S industry. A segment that will grow and be sustained by government regulations. This is only one area of growth. We all would love the auto announcement. But there is more to Axion than just auto.
    23 Feb 2013, 07:58 AM Reply Like
  • Futurist, as of today, tell me the other areas we have sales in? Besides NS one order that is not at work yet going on a year later?


    PC's ?
    Rosewater HUB?
    ePower = 1 truck
    Navy -= 30 batteries ?


    what else?


    I don't mean this as an attack, but every application in any article is met with enthusiasm here that is will be a multi billion $$$ mkt. for AXPW & so far we have nil
    23 Feb 2013, 08:24 AM Reply Like
  • So LT, is it the technology or management? Or both? If the tech works, it has to be management.
    23 Feb 2013, 11:13 AM Reply Like
  • Or it could be that the market just isn't ready. Yet.
    23 Feb 2013, 12:08 PM Reply Like
  • The market is ready, but it's not done doing the testing and validation that must precede a commercial rollout. Unfortunately the process is a lot like sex with a gorilla. Once you start, survive the foreplay and get busy with the main event, you're not finished until they're completely satisfied.
    23 Feb 2013, 12:26 PM Reply Like
  • ... or something else hotter distracts them ...
    23 Feb 2013, 12:34 PM Reply Like
  • OK John,
    That one is so descriptive even an EVgelical can understand it!!!!!!!


    I Love great word pictures
    23 Feb 2013, 08:26 PM Reply Like